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Thread: 2013 ZiPS projections

  1. #1

    2013 ZiPS projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


    Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


    Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

  2. #2
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    Where did they have us last year?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


    Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


    Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

    I'm cautiously optimistic for the 2013 season. If Cespedes can stay healthy, we'll have a shot. I like the outfield talent & depth.
    However, I keep wondering why Daric Barton is still on the 40 man roster?
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  4. #4
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    To me it seems like they are criminally underrating the A's hitters.
    People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring. -Rogers Hornsby

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo A's fan View Post
    Where did they have us last year?
    Here are the 2012 projections - minus Cespedes. Looks like some are close, others are way off.

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ns_oakland_as/
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  6. #6
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    Well, their season prediction was
    2012? It's not going to be pretty.
    So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffalo A's fan View Post
    Well, their season prediction was

    So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.
    Yeah their pitching projections were not very good at all...
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  8. #8
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    So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.
    We own the West!

    Trusted Traders: ttmman21, Dalkowski110, BoofBonser26, Kearns643, HudsonHarden, Extra Innings, MadHatter, Mike D., J.P., SShifflett

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.
    Yeah.

    It's hard to predict the future.

    I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Yeah.

    It's hard to predict the future.

    I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.
    I did a bit of digging and found these past predictions you made

    APRIL 5 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    Anyone have some predictions to share for 2009?

    I'll throw a few out there:

    Chavez will get his release sometime this year.

    Giambi will hit 25 HR.

    Suzuki will hit .300 or better.

    Bobby Crosby may see some time at 1B before he gets traded.
    ACTUAL
    Giambi 11 home runs
    Suzuki finished with a .274 average

    ZIPS
    Giambi 18 home runs
    Suzuki .248 average

    Scoreboard:
    ZiPS - 1 (much closer to Giambi's HR total)
    TIE - 1 (Zito and ZiPS were both off by .026 of batting average)
    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 1, Zito - 0



    DECEMBER 14 2010
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    I hear you - the only ex-yanks I like are Jason Giambi and Rickey Henderson. I'm not expecting much from Matsui this year: .262, 18 HR, 67 RBI.
    ACTUAL
    Matsui .251 12 HR 72 RBI

    ZIPS
    .281 16 HR 69 RBI

    Scoreboard:
    TIE - 1 (Zito was closer on the average. ZiPS was closer on the HR and RBI)
    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 2, Zito - 0



    JANUARY 16 2012
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    I hear you, Anna. Not sure if we can crack 20 hr's by any single player...
    ACTUAL
    3 hitters hit over 20 home runs
    Reddick 32
    Cespedes 23 (not sure he was signed in January)
    Moss 21

    ZIPS
    had Chris Carter with 20 HR
    Reddick 15
    Moss 15
    Cespedes was not projected

    Scoreboard:
    TIE - 1 (Neither ZiPS nor Zito projected a hitter for over 20 HR)
    Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 3, Zito - 0



    FEBRUARY 29 2012
    Quote Originally Posted by Zito75 View Post
    Tejada might be a nice bandaid. He probably won't be an everyday player, could put up 12-15 HR's and maybe hit around .270. That wouldn't be all bad on part time duty.
    ACTUAL
    Tejada did not play in the majors, hit .259 with 0 homers in AAA

    ZIPS
    Tejada .261 with 7 home runs

    Scoreboard:
    ZiPS - .5, TIE - .5 (Neither projection really captured how awful Tejada would be. But ZiPS' was notably worse)

    FINAL SCORE: ZiPS - 1.5, TIE - 3.5, Zito - 0


    *Note: before anyone takes this too seriously, I wasn't taking it that seriously.

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