2013 ZiPS projections

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

[Buffalo A's fan]

Where did they have us last year?

[Zito75]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...and-athletics/


Not overly optimistic. Projecting the A's to be about a .500 team.


Projects new SS Hiroyuki Nakajima to hit .271/.316/.366. Or about as well as Michael Young (.312/.370) last season

I'm cautiously optimistic for the 2013 season. If Cespedes can stay healthy, we'll have a shot. I like the outfield talent & depth.
However, I keep wondering why Daric Barton is still on the 40 man roster?

[Francoeurstein]

To me it seems like they are criminally underrating the A's hitters.

[Zito75]

Where did they have us last year?

Here are the 2012 projections - minus Cespedes. Looks like some are close, others are way off.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ns_oakland_as/

[Buffalo A's fan]

Well, their season prediction was

2012? It's not going to be pretty.

So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.

[Zito75]

Well, their season prediction was

So, there's that. I won't put much stock into their thoughts for this year.

Yeah their pitching projections were not very good at all...

[Zito75]

So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.

[filihok]

So I looked at the ZIPS for 2012. Most were way off, especially for Reddick. I am not putting much weight behind them, so to each their own I guess.

Yeah.

It's hard to predict the future.

I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.

[filihok]

Yeah.

It's hard to predict the future.

I don't suppose you'd care to put up your own predictions vs ZiPS to compare at the end of the season. That may help you to appreciate them more.

I did a bit of digging and found these past predictions you made

APRIL 5 2009

Anyone have some predictions to share for 2009?

I'll throw a few out there:

Chavez will get his release sometime this year.

Giambi will hit 25 HR.

Suzuki will hit .300 or better.

Bobby Crosby may see some time at 1B before he gets traded.

ACTUAL
Giambi 11 home runs
Suzuki finished with a .274 average

ZIPS
Giambi 18 home runs
Suzuki .248 average

Scoreboard:
ZiPS - 1 (much closer to Giambi's HR total)
TIE - 1 (Zito and ZiPS were both off by .026 of batting average)
Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 1, Zito - 0



DECEMBER 14 2010

I hear you - the only ex-yanks I like are Jason Giambi and Rickey Henderson. I'm not expecting much from Matsui this year: .262, 18 HR, 67 RBI.

ACTUAL
Matsui .251 12 HR 72 RBI

ZIPS
.281 16 HR 69 RBI

Scoreboard:
TIE - 1 (Zito was closer on the average. ZiPS was closer on the HR and RBI)
Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 2, Zito - 0



JANUARY 16 2012

I hear you, Anna. Not sure if we can crack 20 hr's by any single player...

ACTUAL
3 hitters hit over 20 home runs
Reddick 32
Cespedes 23 (not sure he was signed in January)
Moss 21

ZIPS
had Chris Carter with 20 HR
Reddick 15
Moss 15
Cespedes was not projected

Scoreboard:
TIE - 1 (Neither ZiPS nor Zito projected a hitter for over 20 HR)
Total Score: ZiPS - 1, TIE - 3, Zito - 0



FEBRUARY 29 2012

Tejada might be a nice bandaid. He probably won't be an everyday player, could put up 12-15 HR's and maybe hit around .270. That wouldn't be all bad on part time duty.

ACTUAL
Tejada did not play in the majors, hit .259 with 0 homers in AAA

ZIPS
Tejada .261 with 7 home runs

Scoreboard:
ZiPS - .5, TIE - .5 (Neither projection really captured how awful Tejada would be. But ZiPS' was notably worse)

FINAL SCORE: ZiPS - 1.5, TIE - 3.5, Zito - 0


*Note: before anyone takes this too seriously, I wasn't taking it that seriously.