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Thread: 2013 ZiPS projections

  1. #1

    2013 ZiPS projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...etroit-tigers/

    Tigers-Depth.png


    Outstanding pitching staff.
    Excellent team.

    Tigers should walk away with the AL Central, of course, I said that last year too.

    Miguel Cabrera (.394/.561 35 HR) and Prince Fielder (.397/.499 30 HR) will pace the offense.
    ZiPS doesn't like Austin Jackson to be as good as last year but .341/.418 with good defense makes him a 3.5 WAR player.

    But the Tigers' 6 starters who project to be major league average is the real reason this team is so good.
    Verlander: 221 IP, 3.09 ERA, 3.06 FIP about 25% better than league average
    Sherzer: 187 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.54 FIP about 10% better than league average
    Fister: 171 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.66 FIP about 8% better than league average
    Sanchez: 185 IP, 4.23 ERA, 3.85 FIP about 4% better than league average
    Porcello: 179 IP, 4.73 ERA, 4.04 FIP about 5% worse than league average
    Smyly: 167 IP, 4.20 ERA, 3.93 FIP about 2% better than league average

    No other team's starters can match up.
    Last edited by filihok; 01-27-2013 at 11:30 AM.

  2. #2
    It confirms the addition by subtraction in not resigning Delmon Young. If this teams holds up, they should make waves.

    A balanced offense, the starters to come through and stay healthy and the bullpen to stay strong. That's what the Tigers will need to reach expectations. But, then, what team doesn't need that? The making of continued success are there.
    Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
    Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
    Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
    Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
    Robin Bill JEDI

  3. #3
    This is looking like the most complete Tigers team in a long time. They still have another move to make though, the addition of a RHH left fielder to play w/ Dirks.

    They have two of the biggest hitters in the game, a great 5 tool centerfielder, and some nice complimentary pieces like Hunter, Avila, Infante.

    I look forward to much improved defense

  4. #4
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    Potentially a great team, if Leyland lets the hot hitters play, too often he benches the hot hitters for the left right match ups. If a player is hot, it doesn't matter who is on the mound. That thinking hurt us in the series and The big Mo quickly went to SF when Garcia (who I like, but was not ready), looked bad and offensively took us out of big innings. By the way, Dirks was hitting well during the ALC games. You don't take out 300 hitters for an unproven for the world series.
    Pitching will get us there again, but??????????
    By the way, I'm new to this forum, sorry, I got on my soapbox before I mentioned that. So hello to all you Detroit fans, I am looking forward to this season.

    Is anyone from Mich that has a lot of experience or knowledge in wire photos?

    Mi-billyb

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by mi-billyb View Post
    Potentially a great team, if Leyland lets the hot hitters play, too often he benches the hot hitters for the left right match ups. If a player is hot, it doesn't matter who is on the mound.
    Do you have any evidence that hot hitters will continue to be hot?

    There is ample evidence that hot streaks are not predictive of any future increased offense
    http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...st-the-streak/
    Hot streakers
    During the streak: .587 wOBA
    Expected wOBA (just a 3-year average for the players): .365
    Actual wOBA in game after streak: .369
    Actual wOBA in five games after streak: .369

    Cold streakers
    During the streak: .151 wOBA
    Expected wOBA (3-year average again): .336
    Actual wOBA in first game after streak: .330
    Actual wOBA in five games after streak: .332

    So, is there anything predictive about hot and cold streaks? Yes, there is…but it’s slight. If you pick up an insanely hot player, or bench an insanely cold player, you get about 5 points of wOBA (a bit less than 5 points of OBP) of predictive power. 5 measley points! This is quite frankly worthless in terms of making fantasy baseball decisions. You’ll do far better relying on a player’s overall talent than trying to catch a hot streak or avoid a cold streak–because chances are, by the time you react, it’s already over.

  6. #6
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    Filihok,
    You definitely do your homework. Are those hot streaks, team streaks or player streaks? An individual player is what I am talking about, but have no evidence, just observation. I know what you mean about the left and right matchups, (would make a good thread), and stats do support that theory, but there are exceptions. As you said, "You are better off relying on a players talent than trying to catch a hot streak". I agree, Dirks was a proven hitter against lefties, Leyland made a mistake. I am from old school, if a player can hit, then let him hit. Rely on their talent.
    You seem to be an avid Tiger fan, ggrrrreat. As I am.

    mi-billyb

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by mi-billyb View Post
    You seem to be an avid Tiger fan, ggrrrreat. As I am.
    Nope. Dodgers


    You definitely do your homework. Are those hot streaks, team streaks or player streaks?
    If you clicked on the link and read the article (always a good thing to do) you would have read that the study was referring to individual players.

  8. #8
    Welcome mi-billyb.
    Bill Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Dick Alex Sparky
    Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
    Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
    Gates Philip John Warrior Rik Casey Tony Horace
    Robin Bill JEDI

  9. #9
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    Thanx Captain, glad to be here.

    Filihok,, Dodgers, that surprised me, good organization, great history, good team to root for. Especially against the Yanks in the 50s and 60s. Your opinion, Tory Hunter will help the Tigs defensively, how about offensively this year?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by mi-billyb View Post
    Your opinion, Tory Hunter will help the Tigs defensively, how about offensively this year?
    Tigers' RFers hit .285/.357 (on base percentage and slugging percentage) last season.
    *http://www.baseball-reference.com/te...year=2012#defp

    Hunter is projected to hit .344/.438

    So, yes, huge upgrade.

  11. #11
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    Thanx Filihok,

  12. #12
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    Matt Tuiasosopo knocks another dinger today. He may be playing himself onto the 25-man roster as a bench OFer.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  13. #13
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    Tuiasosopo. Rolls right off the tongue if you've heard it said a few times. (it really does) What would Donk Elly have to say about it? I'm not happy with the bullpen, so whoever replaces Brennan (stupid Hollywood name) Boesch is less of a concern for me than having Dotel/Benoit/Coke as the ninth inning guys. No, I don't believe Rondon is ready. More than likely, he's the next Brennan Boesch, but we shall see.


    By the way, we're soon going to need a 2013 game thread going. Who's gonna do that?
    smoker

  14. #14
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    As I was typing the last post, Matt Tuiasosopo just homered off of Stephen Strasburg. Shades of Chris Shelton. But...maybe....nah. So many scouts can't be that wrong about him. Can they? Mike Piazza?
    smoker

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