breaking news - players linked to miami clinic giving ped

[UnderPressure]

If A-Rod gets suspended, do the days of his recovery from surgery serve the suspension? It's like the suspension would be useless. Or does he have to come off the DL first?

[Matthew C.]

I think both Griffey and Thome would have passed Mays 660 homeruns if they hadn't faced all those pitchers on steroids.

I think Mays would have hit a lot more than 660 if he didn't miss two years due to service, play in the 60's, and hit in a pitcher's park. This game could get really old, really fast.

[White Knight]

I think both Griffey and Thome would have passed Mays 660 homeruns if they hadn't faced all those pitchers on steroids.

Thome's 2002 is extremely suspect with no testing that year. He was simply not elite enough to have a monster 197 OPS+. Even Pujols never did that.

[bluesky5]

Junior (?)
Thome (?)

There has never been even an inkling about these two. When, why, how, where did they use PED's?

[bluesky5]

Thome's 2002 is extremely suspect with no testing that year. He was simply not elite enough to have a monster 197 OPS+. Even Pujols never did that.

How not? See my previous post. There has been zero connection to Thome and PED's. He hit 50 HR's and got walked a ton, OBP+SLG adjusted for park.

[White Knight]

How not? See my previous post. There has been zero connection to Thome and PED's. He hit 50 HR's and got walked a ton, OBP+SLG adjusted for park.

I don't care what park you play in, unless you are clearly and unquestionably the top hitter or two in the game (something Thome never was), a near-200 OPS+ or above is going to be suspect. If Pujols had done this in 2009 or so, then it wouldn't look as suspicious. He was the top player in the game for years.

[filihok]

I don't care what park you play in, unless you are clearly and unquestionably the top hitter or two in the game (something Thome never was), a near-200 OPS+ or above is going to be suspect. If Pujols had done this in 2009 or so, then it wouldn't look as suspicious. He was the top player in the game for years.

I dunno

Using wRC+ (better than OPS+)

Thome's increase in wRC+ in 2002 from 2001 was 13% (189/167)

In 1934 Lou Gehrig increased his wRC+ by 15% (195/169)
In 1920 Babe Ruth increased his wRC+ by 17% (237/202)
In 1932 Jimmie Foxx increased his wRC+ by 41% (198/140)
In 2009 Juan Pierre increased his wRC+ by 39% (106/76)


Are these increases in performance also suspect?


I'd say, no.

Here's a link to a graph of Thome's yearly wOBA
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/409_...8_20121003.png
Do any of those seasons look like clear outliers?

I don't think that Thome's season is either.

[White Knight]

I dunno

Using wRC+ (better than OPS+)

Thome's increase in wRC+ in 2002 from 2001 was 13% (189/167)

In 1934 Lou Gehrig increased his wRC+ by 15% (195/169)
In 1920 Babe Ruth increased his wRC+ by 17% (237/202)
In 1932 Jimmie Foxx increased his wRC+ by 41% (198/140)
In 2009 Juan Pierre increased his wRC+ by 39% (106/76)


Are these increases in performance also suspect?


I'd say, no.

Here's a link to a graph of Thome's yearly wOBA
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/409_...8_20121003.png
Do any of those seasons look like clear outliers?

I don't think that Thome's season is either.

Gehrig, Ruth, and Foxx were all apex hitters (I just coined a new phrase, and I like it) who dominated. Thome is far from a scrub, but he will never be mentioned along those lines, nor should he.

Pierrre's 2009 was a big increase from his past few years, but still amounted to just a 105 OPS+. He had a 107 before, than dipped to 84, 82, 77, and 77 before returning to 105. I am talking about "monster year" OPS+'s only (I define it as around 200). Like Giambi's 2001. Let's say he didn't admit to steroids or hadn't been named. That season still screams PED's.

However, if you just want to talk huge increases, how about Posada's 2007? Some massive increases for a 35 year old. And what happens the following year? An injury. Hmm...

[Ben Grimm]

However, if you just want to talk huge increases, how about Posada's 2007? Some massive increases for a 35 year old. And what happens the following year? An injury. Hmm...

How about Carlos Ruiz's .540 SLG last year as a 33 year old catcher? He had a .393 SLG leading up to last season and never surpassed .450

[ipitch]

However, if you just want to talk huge increases, how about Posada's 2007? Some massive increases for a 35 year old. And what happens the following year? An injury. Hmm...

He hit 3 fewer HRs in 2007 than in 2006. His average went up, but his BABIP jumped to .386, from .303 in 2006, and .288 in 2005.

[GiambiJuice]

we can now add Ryan Braun to the list of players linked to this clinic, according to Jeff Passan at Yahoo.

[Buczilla]

I wonder how the Miami News Times obtained all this information.

[StanTheMan]

I have it on good word that both the notes used by the author of the article AND the actual reports from the clinic with Braun's name listed were both stored in a refrigerator in a guy's basement over the weekend. Although the documents were perfectly sealed and arrived sealed after being "FedExed", they were unsupervised when in the basement.

UNSUPERVISED people!

[StanTheMan]

I think this proves more and more just how great Barry Bonds was. On every steroid in the world, you don't hit like Babe Ruth (actually, better) in your late 30's period - unless you're Bonds. Alex was considered so great, and even on PED's he did not perform like a super-star the last three years.

We regularly disagree on the PED and Bonds subject, but the above post is actually pretty solid. The problem is, PED's come in varieties and "cocktails" as numerous as Stan The Man had hits. One can't assume that player B would not have done much better if he took the substances Player A took, or that Bonds would have done what he did on other steroids.

[Stolensingle]

we can now add Ryan Braun to the list of players linked to this clinic, according to Jeff Passan at Yahoo.

According to my count, at least five of the players named in the documents have a prior history of doping, which should add to the confidence that these allegations are real, even though every player contacted has denied involvement with Bosch. One of them is Melky Cabrera, I wonder how Toronto feels now about signing him after the Giants released him.

We regularly disagree on the PED and Bonds subject, but the above post is actually pretty solid. The problem is, PED's come in varieties and "cocktails" as numerous as Stan The Man had hits. One can't assume that player B would not have done much better if he took the substances Player A took, or that Bonds would have done what he did on other steroids.

Yes, and there is also evidence from studies of some PEDS that different athletes respond differently, so that even if two athletes with hypothetically the same performance clean went on the same program, their doped performances might differ. Having said that, I tend to agree that Bonds clean was a better player than A-Rod clean. I don't know if he was juiced prior to the late 90s--probably a little, but not on the major program he went on thereafter--but if he had continued to perform as he had up to then, he probably would have finished with 600 HRs, and all those SBs (including his unique membership in the 500/500 club), Gold Gloves, etc., and even with his prickish reputation, probably would have gotten into the HOF on the first try.

If A-Rod gets suspended, do the days of his recovery from surgery serve the suspension? It's like the suspension would be useless. Or does he have to come off the DL first?

Apparently he can serve it while on the DL. So, yes, he wouldn't miss any playing time he wasn't going to miss, anyway, though he would lose his salary during that period. But probably it will take some time for MLB to make an air-tight case against A-Rod and the other named players (last I heard, Miami Times still hadn't decided whether to hand over the documents), so if he does get suspended, I think there's a good chance it would be after he comes off the DL.

[filihok]

Gehrig, Ruth, and Foxx were all apex hitters (I just coined a new phrase, and I like it) who dominated. Thome is far from a scrub, but he will never be mentioned along those lines, nor should he.

Pierrre's 2009 was a big increase from his past few years, but still amounted to just a 105 OPS+. He had a 107 before, than dipped to 84, 82, 77, and 77 before returning to 105. I am talking about "monster year" OPS+'s only (I define it as around 200). Like Giambi's 2001. Let's say he didn't admit to steroids or hadn't been named. That season still screams PED's.

So...I'm to conclude that:
'Apex' hitters can have huge spikes in performance, and that is totally normal
And below average hitters like Juan Pierre can have spikes in performance and that is totally normal.

But, if a good, not great, hitter has a spike in performance that is a sure sign of PED usage?

That 'logic' doesn't make sense to me.


At all.

However, if you just want to talk huge increases, how about Posada's 2007? Some massive increases for a 35 year old. And what happens the following year? An injury. Hmm...

So, a 36 year old catcher getting injured is a sign of PED usage? That logic doesn't make sense to me. At all.


As ipitch pointed out. The main difference in Posada's 1987 was BABIP.
Which of these seasons is the clear result of PED's?
589 PA's, 20 HR, 13% BB, 17% K's, .206 ISO, 13% of fly balls become home runs?
589 PA's, 23 HR, 13% BB, 17% K's, .197 ISO, 15% of fly balls become home runs?

The look plenty identical, right?

Well, the first season, with 20 HR's is Posada's suspect 2007
The second season, with 23 HR's is the average of Posada's previous 3 seasons (prorated to 589 PA's)

In 2007, Posada had the following BABIPS on different batted ball types
GB .301
FB .254
LD .759

In 2006 Posada had the following BABIPS on different batted ball types
GB .221
FB .184
LD .685
*Posada

The main difference between Posada's 2006 and 2007 was that the defenses made plays on him more often in 2006 than in 2007.

Now, one could say that perhaps Posada was hitting the ball harder in 2007, making it more difficult for defenses to field his batted balls. But...the main indicator of the authority by which a player is making contact is HR/FB. Remember that Posada's HR/FB decreased in 2007 by 2%

I see no evidence in Posada's stats that indicate anything other than typical BABIP variation was responsible for him increased numbers.

How about Carlos Ruiz's .540 SLG last year as a 33 year old catcher? He had a .393 SLG leading up to last season and never surpassed .450

Carlos Ruiz' HR/FB per season
2006 14%
2007 5%
2008 5%
2009 8%
2010 7%
2011 4%
2012 15%
*Carlos Ruiz

This alone certainly isn't evidence of PED usage.
But, its' a much different situation than Posada's.

[Matthew C.]

Braun has admitted giving $$$ to Bosch... as payments for consultation on how to appeal the previous failed drug test. Man, this lawyer is good.
And I thought Braun and representatives were going to go for the clerical mistake angle next.

BTW, is 20-30 grand the going price for professional consultation?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...itive-ped-test

[GordonGecko]

I wonder how the Miami News Times obtained all this information.

Disgruntled former partner of the clinic who grabbed all the files he could carry on his way out

[Buczilla]

Disgruntled former partner of the clinic who grabbed all the files he could carry on his way out

Not a bad scoop for a free paper, too bad the information that was provided free to them won't come cheap.

[Stolensingle]

Braun has admitted giving $$$ to Bosch... as payments for consultation on how to appeal the previous failed drug test. Man, this lawyer is good.
And I thought Braun and representatives were going to go for the clerical mistake angle next.

Yes, the lawyer is earning his keep. But Bosch wouldn't know about T/E ratios unless he were in the business of giving synthetic T to athletes, and why would an athlete already facing a sanction for a positive test get involved with someone in that business? How would he know about Bosch except through the PED grapevine? Also, Braun failed the isotope test, which is really the decisive factor, so T/E information would be useless. Even in the Floyd Landis (2006 Tour de France winner) case, when an appeal to CAS (Court of Arbitration in Sport) resulted in a ruling that threw out the T/E results, he was still judged guilty based on the isotope test. But if this consulting really did occur, it could have involved the isotope test, and Braun, not being particularly familiar with the procedure, was confused about what Bosch did for him.

In any case, I wonder if there is a date associated with that entry, that can be used to confirm that Bosch was paid during the period Braun was appealing or considering an appeal.

BTW, is 20-30 grand the going price for professional consultation?

Maybe if Bosch were going to testify as an expert at some hearing. But the information itself, judging from what was said in the linked article, is not worth that much.

[Los Bravos]

I have it on good word that both the notes used by the author of the article AND the actual reports from the clinic with Braun's name listed were both stored in a refrigerator in a guy's basement over the weekend. Although the documents were perfectly sealed and arrived sealed after being "FedExed", they were unsupervised when in the basement.

UNSUPERVISED people!

Braun has admitted giving $$$ to Bosch... as payments for consultation on how to appeal the previous failed drug test. Man, this lawyer is good.

And I thought Braun and representatives were going to go for the clerical mistake angle next.http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...itive-ped-test

If this falls through, I'm thinking he's going to have an evil twin.

[Zito75]

Braun has admitted giving $$$ to Bosch... as payments for consultation on how to appeal the previous failed drug test. Man, this lawyer is good.
And I thought Braun and representatives were going to go for the clerical mistake angle next.

BTW, is 20-30 grand the going price for professional consultation?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...itive-ped-test

We all know Braun used and failed... He might as well admit, apologize and re-offend like A-Rod, etc. With so much money on the line, why would any MLB'er NOT use PEDs?

[Matthew C.]

If this falls through, I'm thinking he's going to have an evil twin.

Despite my comments, which were more for grins than anything, his story is plausible. I am not into the witch-hunt game - but I am sure after being embarrassed by the failed test being overturned, MLB will be. Braun better hope he is guilt-free.

[GordonGecko]

We all know Braun used and failed... He might as well admit, apologize and re-offend like A-Rod, etc. With so much money on the line, why would any MLB'er NOT use PEDs?

Braun seemed like a good guy you would give the benefit of the doubt to, but after seeing what Lance Armstrong did no one can be believed at their word. You have to follow the evidence wherever it leads you, no matter how unplausible or unpleasant it may be

[Los Bravos]

He would probably get the beneft of my doubt (as he did initially last go around) but after his performance then, he gets zilch from me.

And I think you're definitely right about MLB.