2013 ZiPS projections

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-york-yankees/

Yankees-Depth.png


The Yankees.


Still good.

Not Great.


ZiPS projects:
Derek Jeter: .277/.334/.360 in 555 PA's. 6 HR, 13 SB. Total offense 11% below league average and 1.7 total WAR
Mariano Rivera: 23 innings, 3.13 ERA, 2.93 FIP, .5 totat WAR

[White Knight]

When was that put together? They are giving A-Rod 451 PA's. They also seem to show everyone having worse years than last year. 33 home runs for Grandy? A .301 BA for Cano in his contract year? 23 innings pitched for Mo? 90.3 innings pitched for Pettitte? Come on, they're ridiculously underestimating.

[Blackout]

ZiPS projects:
Derek Jeter: .277/.334/.360 in 555 PA's. 6 HR, 13 SB. Total offense 11% below league average and 1.7 total WAR
Mariano Rivera: 23 innings, 3.13 ERA, 2.93 FIP, .5 totat WAR

what a load o' crap if you ask me

[filihok]

what a load o' crap if you ask me

I didn't.

I'm also guessing that you don't have the slightest idea what these projections are or what they mean, so...

[Francoeurstein]

Why is Jeter projected to decline so much from last year? I mean I could see a slight regression...

[filihok]

Why is Jeter projected to decline so much from last year? I mean I could see a slight regression...

Here's Jeter's yearly WAR since 2006

JETER.jpg


The trend is pretty obvious.

[Francoeurstein]

Here's Jeter's yearly WAR since 2006

JETER.jpg


The trend is pretty obvious.

Yes, but do you truly expect his OPS to drop by .58 points?

[filihok]

Yes, but do you truly expect his OPS to drop by .58 points?

You can't just look at last season.

Jeter's OPS in 2010 and 2011 was .725.

He's 2 years older and coming off of a broken ankle.

[Francoeurstein]

You can't just look at last season.

Jeter's OPS in 2010 and 2011 was .725.

He's 2 years older and coming off of a broken ankle.

Valid points... I completely forgot about the injury. I still think he will have a solid season, however.

[White Knight]

I didn't.

I'm also guessing that you don't have the slightest idea what these projections are or what they mean, so...

I wish you would have responded to my comments. It is a clear mistake that -Rod has 451 projected at-bats, or it was written last year.

[filihok]

I wish you would have responded to my comments. It is a clear mistake that -Rod has 451 projected at-bats, or it was written last year.

I wish people would take the time to inform themselves on something before they offer an ignorant opinion of it.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2012. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

[White Knight]

I wish people would take the time to inform themselves on something before they offer an ignorant opinion of it.

That quote you listed from them still isn't what I am talking about. Maybe I'm nitpicking, but since A-Rod is out until July at the earliest, someone should have programmed that information into the computer.

We'll see on the other predictions though. I'd like to see a bump of this thread in October, because I'd be shocked if they were right about Cano, Pettitte, Mo, and Jeter.

[filihok]

That quote you listed from them still isn't what I am talking about. Maybe I'm nitpicking, but since A-Rod is out until July at the earliest, someone should have programmed that information into the computer.

Then what are you talking about?

ZiPS doesn't project playing time. It seems like you're talking about playing time.

We'll see on the other predictions though. I'd like to see a bump of this thread in October, because I'd be shocked if they were right about Cano, Pettitte, Mo, and Jeter.

I'd be shocked too.

Again, it appears you don't understand what these projections are. Please learn about them before offering an opinion on them.

[White Knight]

Then what are you talking about?

ZiPS doesn't project playing time. It seems like you're talking about playing time.


I'd be shocked too.

Again, it appears you don't understand what these projections are. Please learn about them before offering an opinion on them.

Alex is not coming back until July. Computers can be programmed to factor that in.

I do know about projections, and I know the reason they are projection just 23 innings for Mo is because of that injury. With Pettitte at least you could say he's injury prone, but Mo's are way low. Like I said, we'll see. Hopefully he passes that by June.

[filihok]

Alex is not coming back until July. Computers can be programmed to factor that in.

Of course they can.
ZiPS doesn't.