Chris Carpenter

[Herr28]

Well, I haven't seen anything about this on the site yet. Chris Carpenter may not pitch this year. What do you guys think? I know we have a ton of young arms to cover down, along with Waino and Jaime. Is this the end for our Ace? If so, where do you place him among all the great Cardinals pitchers?

I really hope this isn't the end, but it is getting a little ridiculous with all this complete or near complete seasons this guy has had to sit out due to injury. Personally, I am more upset about Carp going down than when Albert signed with the Angels. Carp is one of my absolute all time favorite players, period.

Interested in hearing what you all have to say about him, the other young guys, our season, etc. Another big loss before the year even kicks off! Go Redbirds in 2013!

[filihok]

If any team can afford to lose an ace quality pitcher, it's the Cardinals.

They've got:
Wainwright
Garcia
Westbrook

Then
Lynn
Miller
Rosenthal
Garcia

who are all projected by ZiPS to be right around average or better.


Carp was an excellent pitcher.

Had a bit of a reputation as a jerk though.

[Herr28]

Yeah, we do have a group of potential young starters, and don't forget Joe Kelly. He did real well for a while last summer, but didn't get a lot of run support when he first went into the rotation. I don't have a problem with any of these guys stepping up and contributing, obviously, but they will have some pretty big shoes to fill. Carpenter wasn't just an ace quality pitcher, he was also a huge team leader. If this is truly the end, his massive clubhouse presence will surely be missed as well.

I appreciate the ZiPS projections you posted earlier, filihok. I do hope they are a little off, though! I hope these guys all end up being MUCH better than average! Lots of talented young arms to go with that corps of veteran pitchers. Certainly losing Carpenter for 2013 isn't the end for the Cardinals. As a big fan of his bulldog attitude and abilities, I would just hate to see it be the end of Chris Carpenter.

[dominik]

If any team can afford to lose an ace quality pitcher, it's the Cardinals.

They've got:
Wainwright
Garcia
Westbrook

Then
Lynn
Miller
Rosenthal
Garcia

who are all projected by ZiPS to be right around average or better.


Carp was an excellent pitcher.

Had a bit of a reputation as a jerk though.

their rotation is deep but I think they lack an ace a bit. Wainwright and carp were both CY candidates (in 09 the finshed 2 and 3 in the CY voting), but last year wainwright only posted a pedestrian 3.9 ERA and carp did not pitch at all.

the cards rotation is not bad and their offense will compensate for a lot but I feel better if I have 1 or 2 top pitchers that can post an ERA of about 3 or even under. hopefully one of the young guys can become such an ace, I'm not sure if WW ever gets back to this after his injury.

Carps career has been really frustrating. when he is healthy he was nearly always a CY candidate but he was not healthy a lot of the time. the good thing about carp is that he doesn't seem to take a lot of time to come back after injuries (no wonder with all the training in comebacks). so he might be out till august and then still be a factor in the PS.

[Herr28]

I am just wondering if anyone who is far more versed in the methods of creating possible statistics (for future predictions, or in this case for lost seasons), than I am has figured out where Carp might be if he hadn't lost 2003, 2007, 2008, and almost all of 2012 to injury? I know he pitched Opening Day in '07, and came back for a few starts and relief appearances before being shut down after the ASG in '08, but essentially he lost a solid 4 seasons (without this one added to the list just yet) and half of 2002 as well. Anyone care to project what type of numbers the big guy could have, and where that may put him in the Hall of Fame discussion?

I am an extremely biased Carpenter fan, just wanted to get that out there. However, I know he wouldn't be anywhere near closing in on 300 wins, or even 240 really. I think, conservatively, he lost at least 56 wins from his total which would put him at 200 right now. How much longer could he go, I don't know. We all know that the win total is a big number when the voters are considering a guy's Hall potential as a starter, and it seems (conservatively) Chris would be below many other guys with over 200 wins for their careers. However, I have faith that his quality of pitching after coming over and working with Dave Duncan, along with his amazing postseason success, and his CYA and 2 WS rings just may have swayed enough voters over time. Just my VERY biased opinion.

Anyone else care to reckon where Carp would have been at this point in his career? I know I have seen filihok do this with hitters, and the math really impressed me. Matthew C. is also very good with the metrics side of the house, and I would be interested in his opinion as well. I know it is a moot point, here he is gone for the year with a 144-96 record at 37, and that clearly isn't going to get him any votes at all. Still, I am just interested in seeing what you guys think could have been. Thanks!

[Herr28]

I read a couple days ago that it appears that Carp may come back this season. Sounds like he may work out of the bullpen, though. What do you guys think about a return for the one time ace as a reliever? Will he contribute anything as a long man or innings eater? Surely Matheny won't try and make him into a closer, like Eck or Smoltz did successfully. Any thoughts?