SF GIANTS keys to 2013

[9RoyHobbsRF]

I think these are the keys to the 2013 season

1) Pablo Sandoval, hopefully he is fully healed and can manage his weight. I would like to see him bear his 2009 (.330 25 HR) or 2011 (.315. 23 HR) numbers which funny as it may seem were MUCH better than his 2010 (.268 13 HR) or 2012 (.283, 12 HR) World champion season numbers. I would like to see him in the .295-.310 range with 22-27 HR

2) Tim Lincecum - of course another 10-15, 5.18 season would be disastrous. I am not hoping for a Cy Young caliber year but something in the 14-16 win, 3.20-3.50 ERA would be a big improvement over 2012

3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.

to a lesser degree - Vogelsong and Zito need good years and Cain and Bumgarner need to be Cain and Bumgarner.

Please no more roster taking spot taking up guys with no production like Aubrey Huff etc.

Steady years for Crawford and Scutaro. I hope Pagan can maintain a good season. I think Blanco can improve offensively ever so slightly. Pence needs to improve his BA and OB% and maintain his run driving in ability.

Bench players need to contribute and fill in when necessary.

Relief corp needs to world champion Giants caliber.

Full seasons from Sandoval and Posey are very important.

I think in 2012 spring training they made all the right decisions (catching situation, keeping Blanco, Arias and H. Sanchez, etc.). The additions of Scutaro and Pence were very beneficial.

Let's keep it going!

[9RoyHobbsRF]

http://www.sfgate.com/giants/shea/ar...ts-4266162.php

[Honus Wagner Rules]

How Lincecum pitches in 2013 will go a long ways in determining if he is a Giant past 2013. I'm still a huge Brandon Belt fan. I still believe he'll be a Fred McGriff/Justin Mourneau type hitter, hopefully this year.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

http://www.sfgate.com/giants/shea/ar...ts-4266162.php

Buster Posey has a chance to become part of the Giants pantheon of all-time greats. Posey is pure joy to watch.

[filihok]

I think these are the keys to the 2013 season

1) Pablo Sandoval, hopefully he is fully healed and can manage his weight. I would like to see him bear his 2009 (.330 25 HR) or 2011 (.315. 23 HR) numbers which funny as it may seem were MUCH better than his 2010 (.268 13 HR) or 2012 (.283, 12 HR) World champion season numbers. I would like to see him in the .295-.310 range with 22-27 HR

2) Tim Lincecum - of course another 10-15, 5.18 season would be disastrous. I am not hoping for a Cy Young caliber year but something in the 14-16 win, 3.20-3.50 ERA would be a big improvement over 2012

3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.

to a lesser degree - Vogelsong and Zito need good years and Cain and Bumgarner need to be Cain and Bumgarner.

Please no more roster taking spot taking up guys with no production like Aubrey Huff etc.

Steady years for Crawford and Scutaro. I hope Pagan can maintain a good season. I think Blanco can improve offensively ever so slightly. Pence needs to improve his BA and OB% and maintain his run driving in ability.

Bench players need to contribute and fill in when necessary.

Relief corp needs to world champion Giants caliber.

Full seasons from Sandoval and Posey are very important.

I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions (catching situation, keeping Blanco, Arias and H. Sanchez, etc.). The additions of Scutaro and Pence were very beneficial.

Let's keep it going!

ZiPS projects:

Pandoval: .338/.467 125 OPS+, 4.1 WAR
Belt: .359/.429 121 OPS+ 2.7 WAR
Scutaro: .316/.360 91 OPS+ 1.9 WAR
Crawford: .292/.340 78 OPS+ 1.7 WAR

Lincecum: 189 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.53 FIP (about 6% better than league average) and 2.2 WAR


Using the projected starting lineups on ESPN.COM (not the right way to do this at all), the Giants project to 43 WAR while the Dodgers project to 42 WAR.

My (very rough) projections have the Giants at 92 wins with the DBacks at 88 wins and the Dodgers at 87 wins.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

If Sandoval is healthy for the entire season his OBP/SLG will be much higher than .338/.467 IMO.

[filihok]

If Sandoval is healthy for the entire season his OBP/SLG will be much higher than .338/.467 IMO.

Well, one thing about ZiPS is that it attempts to factor in the likelihood of a player being healthy.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Well, one thing about ZiPS is that it attempts to factor in the likelihood of a player being healthy.

Sandoval's 2010/2012 seasons were interrupted by hip and hand injuries and a hamstring injury in 2012. The hand injuries are not chronic type injuries. The hamstring injury could possibly become chronic. I do not believe his overall stats from 2010/12 are indicative of Sandoval's true talent level. I believe his 2009/11 seasons are closer to Sandoval's true talent level. I believe Sandoval has MVP caliber ability if he can stay healthy. Whether he actually can is another matter.

[filihok]

Sandoval's 2010/2012 seasons were interrupted by hip and hand injuries and a hamstring injury in 2012. The hand injuries are not chronic type injuries. The hamstring injury could possibly become chronic. I do not believe his overall stats from 2010/12 are indicative of Sandoval's true talent level. I believe his 2009/11 seasons are closer to Sandoval's true talent level. I believe Sandoval has MVP caliber ability if he can stay healthy. Whether he actually can is another matter.

Which is how ZiPS makes it's projections

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Which is how ZiPS makes it's projections

Fair enough. IF the Panda stays healthy I think he hits .320/.390/.575, 30 HR, 40 doubles, 190 hits.

[KHenry14]

While I'd be over the moon if Belt hits .359, I think the odds of that happening are pretty small. Does he have the talent to do that? Absolutely. But 2013 is only his second full season, and I think he's still getting comfortable. IMO, that projection is more likely to happen in 2014 than this season.

[filihok]

While I'd be over the moon if Belt hits .359, I think the odds of that happening are pretty small.

That's OBP not batting average

I'll rarely cite batting average as it is not a very telling statistic

[9RoyHobbsRF]

ZiPS projects:

Pandoval: .338/.467 125 OPS+, 4.1 WAR
Belt: .359/.429 121 OPS+ 2.7 WAR
Scutaro: .316/.360 91 OPS+ 1.9 WAR
Crawford: .292/.340 78 OPS+ 1.7 WAR

Lincecum: 189 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.53 FIP (about 6% better than league average) and 2.2 WAR


Using the projected starting lineups on ESPN.COM (not the right way to do this at all), the Giants project to 43 WAR while the Dodgers project to 42 WAR.

My (very rough) projections have the Giants at 92 wins with the DBacks at 88 wins and the Dodgers at 87 wins.

Nothing like having the thread hijacked into a numbers projected stat thread

Sheesh

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Pitchers and catchers report today! Woohoo!

[KHenry14]

Wonder when Villalona will report?

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Wonder when Villalona will report?

To his parole officer?!

[Matthew C.]

Nothing like having the thread hijacked into a numbers projected stat thread

Sheesh

One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.

[KHenry14]

To his parole officer?!

Bochy is his PO, isn't he??

[Honus Wagner Rules]

One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.

That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.

[Matthew C.]

That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.

Well, the skill part comes from being one of the top 12 or so teams in baseball. That is mostly skill there. To make consistant trips into that top 10-12 shows organizational strength, not luck. Once playoffs starts, any team can win. The fact that any team can win (from the best to the 12th best) is why some people say it is "luck." Compared to say the NBA, where one of the top 2-3 teams ALWAYS wins.

The Giants are certainly good enough to be in that group of 12 again that can win it all. That is really all you need at this point. The issue is, there are probably 15-16 teams that are good enough to make it into the top 12, and no "sure thing" is really a sure thing with this much parody.

Look at the St. Louis Cardinals. Since, 1982, they have made the playoffs 13 times. Their average win total in the 3x they have won it all was 88 wins. In the 10x they didn't win? A 95 win average - including three teams with 100+ wins and five with 97+ wins. Were they lucky the three years they won? Unlucky many of those 10 years they didn't?

Probably a combination of yes and no. But one thing we know, and the only thing I care about is: you do not make the playoffs 13x in 30 years by luck and you do not make 10 LCS in 30 years by luck. That is a sign of organizational strength, and that is what the Giants are showing lately.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.

I don't think you understand my concern. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.

I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.

Brandon Belt.jpg

[Matthew C.]

I don't think you understand my concerm. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.

Fair enough.

[filihok]

I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions

Did I miss something? That something being spring training 2013

[Blue387]

I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

I like Angel Pagan.