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Thread: SF GIANTS keys to 2013

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew C. View Post
    One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

    For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.


    I don't think you understand my concern. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 02-13-2013 at 03:44 PM.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
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  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post

    3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.
    I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.

    Brandon Belt.jpg
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    I don't think you understand my concerm. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
    Fair enough.
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  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions
    Did I miss something? That something being spring training 2013

  5. #25
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    I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

    I like Angel Pagan.
    The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.
    Let's see if we should expect Belt to be able to do that


    Assume 700 PA's

    So far in the majors Belt has walked about 8% of his at bats.
    In the minors he walked about 17% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 7%.
    Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can draw a walk 10% of the time. That's 70 walks

    So far in the majors Belt has stuck out about 24% of the time.
    In the minors he struck out about 18% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 21%.
    Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can strike out about 20% of the time. That's 126 strikeouts.

    That gives belt about 504 balls in play (less home runs, which we'll deal with later).

    So far in the majors Belt has the following batted ball profile:
    22% line drives, 39% ground balls, 37% fly balls-of which 6% were infield flies, and 9% HR/FB.
    In the minors his lines were
    2011: 27%/34%/39%/7%/15%
    Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can hit 25% line drives, 37% ground balls, 38% fly balls of which 5% are infield flies with a 15% HR/FB rate.

    So, on Belt's 504 BIP we'll expect (.25*504) 126 line drives, (.37*504) 186 ground balls and (.38*504) 192 fly balls of which (.05*504) 25 are infield fly balls.
    Of Belt's 192 fly balls 15% of them will go for home runs, that's (.15*192) 29 HR's.

    That leaves Belt with (504-29) 475 balls in play.
    Using league average BABIPs for each batted ball type we'd expect the following amount of hits
    Line drives: .740 BABIP * 126 line drives = 93 hits
    Ground balls: .240 BABIP * 186 ground balls = 45 hits
    Fly balls: .140 BABIP * 164 fly balls (192 fly balls - 28 home runs) = 23 hits

    That's a total of (93+45+23+28) 189 hits.

    700 PA's - 70 walks leaves Belt with 630 at bats.
    189/730 = .300 batting average.

    So, using some projections that I'd consider optimistic, I get Belt-in his prime-hitting .300 with 28 home runs.

    Unlikely that he'll get to Roy's .280 with 24 home runs this season.

    Feel free to adjust the numbers as you see fit.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Blue387 View Post
    I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

    I like Angel Pagan.
    ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.
    Angel Pagan is streaky.
    The Mets have the best, smartest fans in baseball.

  9. #29
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

  10. #30
    The Giants have traded Connar Gillespie to the White Sox for a hard throwing pitcher

    He only plays 3B and Sandoval and Arias have that position covered
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://forums.delphiforums.com/GamersParadise
    3. My table top gaming blog: http://cary333.blogspot.com/

  11. #31
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    Though when it comes to the NL West, I am more a Dodgers fan, I still really like the Giants and think you guys still have a GREAT team! You certainly deserved those two World Series titles, regardless of the nonsense that others have spouted about being "lucky", just as they say about my Redbirds. Rubbish. You guys have a lot of VERY talented players, especially pitchers. Posey is a great C and absolutely a pleasure to watch as was mentioned earlier. Of course my bias will stick with Yadi being the best backstop in the league, but I am still a big fan of Buster. Go get 'em Giants! Time for you guys to defend that title!
    "It ain't braggin' if you can do it." Dizzy Dean

  12. #32
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    Looks like Lincecum may have issues this season again. From Keith Law:

    Tim Lincecum: What can we expect?
    I saw him last week, and the issues that plagued him last year are still present -- he's pitching with an average fastball that has no movement, and he doesn't have the kind of command to get away with throwing it in the upper half of the zone. Either he relies more heavily than ever on the slider, a pitch he has commented in the past bothers his elbow, or he needs a change in role.

    I do think he could help this club in a high-usage relief role, kind of the way he was deployed in October, but it has been ages since any MLB team used a reliever in that fashion.
    I don't believe the Giants nor Lincecum are seriously considering Lincecum being a reliever of any sort this season.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  13. #33
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    I agree Wags, the only time the team would EVER consider Timmy for the pen is like they did in the playoffs. Not in the regular season. And Timmy would HATE pitching out of the pen.

    And let's be honest here...this is Timmy's walk season. He wants a premium contract to be a starter, and to think that doesn't bare into the conversation would be naive. Which presents issues to Sabes and Boch if Timmy stinks up the place. And we all know, unless Timmy's arm falls off, somebody will give him a big deal to be a starter.So the 2013 season will be fascinating because of this issue.
    “Well, I like to say I’m completely focused, right? I mean, the game’s on the line. It’s not like I’m thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer — it tastes friggin’ awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    I agree Wags, the only time the team would EVER consider Timmy for the pen is like they did in the playoffs. Not in the regular season. And Timmy would HATE pitching out of the pen.

    And let's be honest here...this is Timmy's walk season. He wants a premium contract to be a starter, and to think that doesn't bare into the conversation would be naive. Which presents issues to Sabes and Boch if Timmy stinks up the place. And we all know, unless Timmy's arm falls off, somebody will give him a big deal to be a starter.So the 2013 season will be fascinating because of this issue.
    If Timmy is just as terrible in 2013 as he was in 2012 I wonder what others teams would be interested in signing him as a FA? Fortunately for the Giants Crick and Blackburn should be ready to help the Giants in 2014 (I hope).
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    If Timmy is just as terrible in 2013 as he was in 2012 I wonder what others teams would be interested in signing him as a FA?
    K's over a batter per inning, average FB rate, a history of greatness.

    Plenty of teams will be interested in signing Timmay

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    K's over a batter per inning, average FB rate, a history of greatness.

    Plenty of teams will be interested in signing Timmay
    Timmy's fastball is in steep decline, tops out 89-90 mph. That is the source of his problem. Is Timmy magically going to start throwing his fastball at 94-95 like he did in his Cy Young years? His fastball lacks movement. That didn't matter when he was throwing 94-95 mph. It's a major problem at 89-90 mph.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tch-not-throw/
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Timmy's fastball is in steep decline, tops out 89-90 mph. That is the source of his problem. Is Timmy magically going to start throwing his fastball at 94-95 like he did in his Cy Young years? His fastball lacks movement. That didn't matter when he was throwing 94-95 mph. It's a major problem at 89-90 mph.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tch-not-throw/
    Agree with everything you say

    Still, if teams are signing Eric Bedard and Mark Prior I think they'll sign Lincecum.

    Too bad Timmy didn't agree with the Giants on a 10 year eleventy billion dollar deal after 2009 [/Dodger Fan]

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Agree with everything you say

    Still, if teams are signing Eric Bedard and Mark Prior I think they'll sign Lincecum.

    Too bad Timmy didn't agree with the Giants on a 10 year eleventy billion dollar deal after 2009 [/Dodger Fan]
    I have no doubt teams will be interested in Timmy. But if Timmy starts asking for $18-$20 million per season I think teams will laugh.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  19. #39
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    So what do the Giants do if Lincecum pitches like crap the first six weeks of the season? Do they just keep running him out there very five days to get hammered?
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    So what do the Giants do if Lincecum pitches like crap the first six weeks of the season? Do they just keep running him out there very five days to get hammered?
    Who do they have behind him?
    Hester, Boof Bonser? Surkamp?

    Surkamp looks ok, but not sure he's ready.

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