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Thread: SF GIANTS keys to 2013

  1. #1

    SF GIANTS keys to 2013

    I think these are the keys to the 2013 season

    1) Pablo Sandoval, hopefully he is fully healed and can manage his weight. I would like to see him bear his 2009 (.330 25 HR) or 2011 (.315. 23 HR) numbers which funny as it may seem were MUCH better than his 2010 (.268 13 HR) or 2012 (.283, 12 HR) World champion season numbers. I would like to see him in the .295-.310 range with 22-27 HR

    2) Tim Lincecum - of course another 10-15, 5.18 season would be disastrous. I am not hoping for a Cy Young caliber year but something in the 14-16 win, 3.20-3.50 ERA would be a big improvement over 2012

    3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.

    to a lesser degree - Vogelsong and Zito need good years and Cain and Bumgarner need to be Cain and Bumgarner.

    Please no more roster taking spot taking up guys with no production like Aubrey Huff etc.

    Steady years for Crawford and Scutaro. I hope Pagan can maintain a good season. I think Blanco can improve offensively ever so slightly. Pence needs to improve his BA and OB% and maintain his run driving in ability.

    Bench players need to contribute and fill in when necessary.

    Relief corp needs to world champion Giants caliber.

    Full seasons from Sandoval and Posey are very important.

    I think in 2012 spring training they made all the right decisions (catching situation, keeping Blanco, Arias and H. Sanchez, etc.). The additions of Scutaro and Pence were very beneficial.

    Let's keep it going!
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 02-13-2013 at 08:14 PM.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  2. #2
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  3. #3
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    How Lincecum pitches in 2013 will go a long ways in determining if he is a Giant past 2013. I'm still a huge Brandon Belt fan. I still believe he'll be a Fred McGriff/Justin Mourneau type hitter, hopefully this year.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  4. #4
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    Buster Posey has a chance to become part of the Giants pantheon of all-time greats. Posey is pure joy to watch.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    I think these are the keys to the 2013 season

    1) Pablo Sandoval, hopefully he is fully healed and can manage his weight. I would like to see him bear his 2009 (.330 25 HR) or 2011 (.315. 23 HR) numbers which funny as it may seem were MUCH better than his 2010 (.268 13 HR) or 2012 (.283, 12 HR) World champion season numbers. I would like to see him in the .295-.310 range with 22-27 HR

    2) Tim Lincecum - of course another 10-15, 5.18 season would be disastrous. I am not hoping for a Cy Young caliber year but something in the 14-16 win, 3.20-3.50 ERA would be a big improvement over 2012

    3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.

    to a lesser degree - Vogelsong and Zito need good years and Cain and Bumgarner need to be Cain and Bumgarner.

    Please no more roster taking spot taking up guys with no production like Aubrey Huff etc.

    Steady years for Crawford and Scutaro. I hope Pagan can maintain a good season. I think Blanco can improve offensively ever so slightly. Pence needs to improve his BA and OB% and maintain his run driving in ability.

    Bench players need to contribute and fill in when necessary.

    Relief corp needs to world champion Giants caliber.

    Full seasons from Sandoval and Posey are very important.

    I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions (catching situation, keeping Blanco, Arias and H. Sanchez, etc.). The additions of Scutaro and Pence were very beneficial.

    Let's keep it going!
    ZiPS projects:

    Pandoval: .338/.467 125 OPS+, 4.1 WAR
    Belt: .359/.429 121 OPS+ 2.7 WAR
    Scutaro: .316/.360 91 OPS+ 1.9 WAR
    Crawford: .292/.340 78 OPS+ 1.7 WAR

    Lincecum: 189 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.53 FIP (about 6% better than league average) and 2.2 WAR


    Using the projected starting lineups on ESPN.COM (not the right way to do this at all), the Giants project to 43 WAR while the Dodgers project to 42 WAR.

    My (very rough) projections have the Giants at 92 wins with the DBacks at 88 wins and the Dodgers at 87 wins.

  6. #6
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    If Sandoval is healthy for the entire season his OBP/SLG will be much higher than .338/.467 IMO.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    If Sandoval is healthy for the entire season his OBP/SLG will be much higher than .338/.467 IMO.
    Well, one thing about ZiPS is that it attempts to factor in the likelihood of a player being healthy.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Well, one thing about ZiPS is that it attempts to factor in the likelihood of a player being healthy.
    Sandoval's 2010/2012 seasons were interrupted by hip and hand injuries and a hamstring injury in 2012. The hand injuries are not chronic type injuries. The hamstring injury could possibly become chronic. I do not believe his overall stats from 2010/12 are indicative of Sandoval's true talent level. I believe his 2009/11 seasons are closer to Sandoval's true talent level. I believe Sandoval has MVP caliber ability if he can stay healthy. Whether he actually can is another matter.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Sandoval's 2010/2012 seasons were interrupted by hip and hand injuries and a hamstring injury in 2012. The hand injuries are not chronic type injuries. The hamstring injury could possibly become chronic. I do not believe his overall stats from 2010/12 are indicative of Sandoval's true talent level. I believe his 2009/11 seasons are closer to Sandoval's true talent level. I believe Sandoval has MVP caliber ability if he can stay healthy. Whether he actually can is another matter.
    Which is how ZiPS makes it's projections

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Which is how ZiPS makes it's projections
    Fair enough. IF the Panda stays healthy I think he hits .320/.390/.575, 30 HR, 40 doubles, 190 hits.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  11. #11
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    While I'd be over the moon if Belt hits .359, I think the odds of that happening are pretty small. Does he have the talent to do that? Absolutely. But 2013 is only his second full season, and I think he's still getting comfortable. IMO, that projection is more likely to happen in 2014 than this season.
    ďWell, I like to say Iím completely focused, right? I mean, the gameís on the line. Itís not like Iím thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer ó it tastes frigginí awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    While I'd be over the moon if Belt hits .359, I think the odds of that happening are pretty small.
    That's OBP not batting average

    I'll rarely cite batting average as it is not a very telling statistic

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    ZiPS projects:

    Pandoval: .338/.467 125 OPS+, 4.1 WAR
    Belt: .359/.429 121 OPS+ 2.7 WAR
    Scutaro: .316/.360 91 OPS+ 1.9 WAR
    Crawford: .292/.340 78 OPS+ 1.7 WAR

    Lincecum: 189 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.53 FIP (about 6% better than league average) and 2.2 WAR


    Using the projected starting lineups on ESPN.COM (not the right way to do this at all), the Giants project to 43 WAR while the Dodgers project to 42 WAR.

    My (very rough) projections have the Giants at 92 wins with the DBacks at 88 wins and the Dodgers at 87 wins.
    Nothing like having the thread hijacked into a numbers projected stat thread

    Sheesh
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  14. #14
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    Pitchers and catchers report today! Woohoo!
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  15. #15
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    Wonder when Villalona will report?
    ďWell, I like to say Iím completely focused, right? I mean, the gameís on the line. Itís not like Iím thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer ó it tastes frigginí awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by KHenry14 View Post
    Wonder when Villalona will report?
    To his parole officer?!
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    Nothing like having the thread hijacked into a numbers projected stat thread

    Sheesh
    One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

    For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

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  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    To his parole officer?!
    Bochy is his PO, isn't he??
    ďWell, I like to say Iím completely focused, right? I mean, the gameís on the line. Itís not like Iím thinking about what does barbecue Pop Chips and Cholula taste like. Because I already know that answer ó it tastes frigginí awesome!"--Brian Wilson

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew C. View Post
    One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

    For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.
    That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    That's pretty much baseball right now. I think that's why many people try to deride the Giants recent two World Series titles as "lucky" or "random" which is ridiculous of course.
    Well, the skill part comes from being one of the top 12 or so teams in baseball. That is mostly skill there. To make consistant trips into that top 10-12 shows organizational strength, not luck. Once playoffs starts, any team can win. The fact that any team can win (from the best to the 12th best) is why some people say it is "luck." Compared to say the NBA, where one of the top 2-3 teams ALWAYS wins.

    The Giants are certainly good enough to be in that group of 12 again that can win it all. That is really all you need at this point. The issue is, there are probably 15-16 teams that are good enough to make it into the top 12, and no "sure thing" is really a sure thing with this much parody.

    Look at the St. Louis Cardinals. Since, 1982, they have made the playoffs 13 times. Their average win total in the 3x they have won it all was 88 wins. In the 10x they didn't win? A 95 win average - including three teams with 100+ wins and five with 97+ wins. Were they lucky the three years they won? Unlucky many of those 10 years they didn't?

    Probably a combination of yes and no. But one thing we know, and the only thing I care about is: you do not make the playoffs 13x in 30 years by luck and you do not make 10 LCS in 30 years by luck. That is a sign of organizational strength, and that is what the Giants are showing lately.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 02-13-2013 at 10:46 AM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012


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  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Matthew C. View Post
    One in which is supporting the idea of the Giants winning the division and beating out the Dodgers. Considering the amount of people picking the Dodgers to win, you might be picking a battle with the wrong person this time.

    For the record, I like the Giants over the Dodgers too, but in reality, there are probably 6-7 teams in both leagues that have an about-equal chance to win it all.


    I don't think you understand my concern. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
    Last edited by 9RoyHobbsRF; 02-13-2013 at 03:44 PM.
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post

    3) Brandon Belt - we need a breakout season from him in the next year or 2. As long as they stop the infield-outfield, starter-bench player, majors-minors yo-yo. I think a .280-.300 BA with 18 - 24 HR would be not too much to ask for.
    I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.

    Brandon Belt.jpg
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

    http://sfgiants-forum.com/forum/index.php

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    I don't think you understand my concerm. I am not looking for Giants rooters or whatever, I just felt the thread was being hijacked into a stat projection saber thread which is 100% the opposite of what I intended the thread to be. I f I wanted a saber stat guesswork thread I would have started it in the stats and saber category.
    Fair enough.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    I think in 2013 spring training they made all the right decisions
    Did I miss something? That something being spring training 2013

  25. #25
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    I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

    I like Angel Pagan.
    "Hitting is timing. Pitching is upsetting timing." - Warren Spahn

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