SF GIANTS keys to 2013

[filihok]

I think Belt can do that, maybe a bit better. I think he still has lots of upside that is yet to be harnessed.

Let's see if we should expect Belt to be able to do that


Assume 700 PA's

So far in the majors Belt has walked about 8% of his at bats.
In the minors he walked about 17% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 7%.
Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can draw a walk 10% of the time. That's 70 walks

So far in the majors Belt has stuck out about 24% of the time.
In the minors he struck out about 18% of the time which translates to a major league line of about 21%.
Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can strike out about 20% of the time. That's 126 strikeouts.

That gives belt about 504 balls in play (less home runs, which we'll deal with later).

So far in the majors Belt has the following batted ball profile:
22% line drives, 39% ground balls, 37% fly balls-of which 6% were infield flies, and 9% HR/FB.
In the minors his lines were
2011: 27%/34%/39%/7%/15%
Let's be optimistic and say that in Belt's prime he can hit 25% line drives, 37% ground balls, 38% fly balls of which 5% are infield flies with a 15% HR/FB rate.

So, on Belt's 504 BIP we'll expect (.25*504) 126 line drives, (.37*504) 186 ground balls and (.38*504) 192 fly balls of which (.05*504) 25 are infield fly balls.
Of Belt's 192 fly balls 15% of them will go for home runs, that's (.15*192) 29 HR's.

That leaves Belt with (504-29) 475 balls in play.
Using league average BABIPs for each batted ball type we'd expect the following amount of hits
Line drives: .740 BABIP * 126 line drives = 93 hits
Ground balls: .240 BABIP * 186 ground balls = 45 hits
Fly balls: .140 BABIP * 164 fly balls (192 fly balls - 28 home runs) = 23 hits

That's a total of (93+45+23+28) 189 hits.

700 PA's - 70 walks leaves Belt with 630 at bats.
189/730 = .300 batting average.

So, using some projections that I'd consider optimistic, I get Belt-in his prime-hitting .300 with 28 home runs.

Unlikely that he'll get to Roy's .280 with 24 home runs this season.

Feel free to adjust the numbers as you see fit.

[filihok]

I wonder if Pagan will be worth his contract. He put up under 5 WAR in 2012 and had a 5 WAR season with the Mets in 2010 but then came back to earth in 2011.

I like Angel Pagan.

ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.

[Blue387]

ZiPS projects Pagan for .270/.320/.403 in 610 PA's. That's about league average offense. Combined with slightly above average defense Pagan comes in at 3.5 WAR.

Angel Pagan is streaky.

[9RoyHobbsRF]

rotation announced

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2013/0...tive-rotation/

[9RoyHobbsRF]

The Giants have traded Connar Gillespie to the White Sox for a hard throwing pitcher

He only plays 3B and Sandoval and Arias have that position covered

[Herr28]

Though when it comes to the NL West, I am more a Dodgers fan, I still really like the Giants and think you guys still have a GREAT team! You certainly deserved those two World Series titles, regardless of the nonsense that others have spouted about being "lucky", just as they say about my Redbirds. Rubbish. You guys have a lot of VERY talented players, especially pitchers. Posey is a great C and absolutely a pleasure to watch as was mentioned earlier. Of course my bias will stick with Yadi being the best backstop in the league, but I am still a big fan of Buster. Go get 'em Giants! Time for you guys to defend that title!

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Looks like Lincecum may have issues this season again. From Keith Law:

Tim Lincecum: What can we expect?
I saw him last week, and the issues that plagued him last year are still present -- he's pitching with an average fastball that has no movement, and he doesn't have the kind of command to get away with throwing it in the upper half of the zone. Either he relies more heavily than ever on the slider, a pitch he has commented in the past bothers his elbow, or he needs a change in role.

I do think he could help this club in a high-usage relief role, kind of the way he was deployed in October, but it has been ages since any MLB team used a reliever in that fashion.

I don't believe the Giants nor Lincecum are seriously considering Lincecum being a reliever of any sort this season.

[KHenry14]

I agree Wags, the only time the team would EVER consider Timmy for the pen is like they did in the playoffs. Not in the regular season. And Timmy would HATE pitching out of the pen.

And let's be honest here...this is Timmy's walk season. He wants a premium contract to be a starter, and to think that doesn't bare into the conversation would be naive. Which presents issues to Sabes and Boch if Timmy stinks up the place. And we all know, unless Timmy's arm falls off, somebody will give him a big deal to be a starter.So the 2013 season will be fascinating because of this issue.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

I agree Wags, the only time the team would EVER consider Timmy for the pen is like they did in the playoffs. Not in the regular season. And Timmy would HATE pitching out of the pen.

And let's be honest here...this is Timmy's walk season. He wants a premium contract to be a starter, and to think that doesn't bare into the conversation would be naive. Which presents issues to Sabes and Boch if Timmy stinks up the place. And we all know, unless Timmy's arm falls off, somebody will give him a big deal to be a starter.So the 2013 season will be fascinating because of this issue.

If Timmy is just as terrible in 2013 as he was in 2012 I wonder what others teams would be interested in signing him as a FA? Fortunately for the Giants Crick and Blackburn should be ready to help the Giants in 2014 (I hope).

[filihok]

If Timmy is just as terrible in 2013 as he was in 2012 I wonder what others teams would be interested in signing him as a FA?

K's over a batter per inning, average FB rate, a history of greatness.

Plenty of teams will be interested in signing Timmay

[Honus Wagner Rules]

K's over a batter per inning, average FB rate, a history of greatness.

Plenty of teams will be interested in signing Timmay

Timmy's fastball is in steep decline, tops out 89-90 mph. That is the source of his problem. Is Timmy magically going to start throwing his fastball at 94-95 like he did in his Cy Young years? His fastball lacks movement. That didn't matter when he was throwing 94-95 mph. It's a major problem at 89-90 mph.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tch-not-throw/

[filihok]

Timmy's fastball is in steep decline, tops out 89-90 mph. That is the source of his problem. Is Timmy magically going to start throwing his fastball at 94-95 like he did in his Cy Young years? His fastball lacks movement. That didn't matter when he was throwing 94-95 mph. It's a major problem at 89-90 mph.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tch-not-throw/

Agree with everything you say

Still, if teams are signing Eric Bedard and Mark Prior I think they'll sign Lincecum.

Too bad Timmy didn't agree with the Giants on a 10 year eleventy billion dollar deal after 2009 [/Dodger Fan]

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Agree with everything you say

Still, if teams are signing Eric Bedard and Mark Prior I think they'll sign Lincecum.

Too bad Timmy didn't agree with the Giants on a 10 year eleventy billion dollar deal after 2009 [/Dodger Fan]

I have no doubt teams will be interested in Timmy. But if Timmy starts asking for $18-$20 million per season I think teams will laugh.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

So what do the Giants do if Lincecum pitches like crap the first six weeks of the season? Do they just keep running him out there very five days to get hammered?

[filihok]

So what do the Giants do if Lincecum pitches like crap the first six weeks of the season? Do they just keep running him out there very five days to get hammered?

Who do they have behind him?
Hester, Boof Bonser? Surkamp?

Surkamp looks ok, but not sure he's ready.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Who do they have behind him?
Hester, Boof Bonser? Surkamp?

Surkamp looks ok, but not sure he's ready.

Surkamp is coming off Tommy John surgery which he had on July 25, 2012. Surkamp is a long ways from being ready to pitch in the majors and hold his own.

[Ben Grimm]

So what do the Giants do if Lincecum pitches like crap the first six weeks of the season? Do they just keep running him out there very five days to get hammered?

We're having the same issue here with Halladay. Tomorrow's start is huge as he said he's going to pitch as if it was a true game. Remains to be seen, but if he's lit up again, I'd like to see him stay in Florida to figure things out. Then it's a case of inside-the-system help to take his place.

Does Timmy have any final outings prior to the season? If he was toying around with stuff, this should be the start to get everything in gear. If he's still knocked around, it might be time to worry.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Here's a good radio interview with Keith Law and Giants' beat writer Andrew Baggarly. It starts at 28:36. They discuss Tim Lincecum and Brandon Belt.

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=9100718