2013 ZiPS projections

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...oston-red-sox/

Red-Sox-Depth.png



Lots of interesting players for the Red Sox

New arrivals
Shane Victorino .330/.425 2.9 WAR
Mike Napoli .347/.488 1.8 WAR
Stephen Drew .322/.396 1.7 WAR

Young Players
Wil Middlebrooks .292/.434 1.8 WAR
Jackie Bradley .329/.367 1.6 WAR
Lavarnway .311/.388 1.3 WAR
Jose Iglesias .298/.304 1.1 WAR

and former Dodger Ruby de la Rosa 51 IP, 4.38 ERA, 4.15 FIP 0.8 WAR

[9&10]

This year is gonna suck. Big time. If we get to 81 wins, I'll be happy.

[filihok]

This year is gonna suck. Big time. If we get to 81 wins, I'll be happy.

Interesting

Because these WAR projections put the Red Sox at 90 wins

*disclaimer: WAR projections shouldn't be used this way

[dominik]

Isn't the projected 150 OPS+ for papina little bit optimistic if you consider his age and injuries?

[filihok]

Isn't the projected 150 OPS+ for papina little bit optimistic if you consider his age and injuries?

Ortiz has a 150 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons

[Joe Barrie]

The spin is beginning in the press and on TV in Boston. The new sherrif has arrived to manage. He seems like a big, rather humorless guy, sort of in the mold of Joe Cronin, Steve O'Neill,or Darrell Johnson; his strength seems to be that he isn't Valentine. I doubt Farrell will ride in the Pan-Mass Challenge, in any event.

John Lackey is now wonderful. He has lost weight and everyone in Florida just loves him, so they say and write. One non-established pitcher has accidentally shot himself inthe leg, and Buchholtz has sprained a hamstring bending over to pick up a baseball.

Pedroia says he relishes being on an underdog team, as they now have more to shoot for, or some similar cliche. He has yet publicly to call out the manager.

John Henry swears he is really interested in the team, but has to keep up with his other activities because just being owner of the Red Sox isn't enough to keep him busy.

Not much seems to be expected of this team, which means that everyone hopes to be pleasantly surprised. Oh, yes, as expected, Terry Francona is morphing into a bad guy, on talk radio at least.

[9&10]

Interesting

Because these WAR projections put the Red Sox at 90 wins

*disclaimer: WAR projections shouldn't be used this way

Projections schmojections. . . how many wins were they projected to win last season?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see 'em win 90 games, but I don't see it happening. Like I said, if they win 81 games, I'll be happy.

[filihok]

Projections schmojections. . . how many wins were they projected to win last season?

ZiPS projections are mean projections.

If we projected 10 coin flips the mean projection would be 5 heads and 5 tails - that's the most likely outcome.

But not the only possible outcome.

http://www.mathamazement.com/Lessons...obability.html

10-coin-toss-histogram.JPG

As you can see, it is most likely that the number of heads will be near 5, which is half the total number of tosses. This histogram has a roughly bell-shape, which is typical of histograms of probability distributions of repeated independent trials.

[9&10]

So based on that, are you supporting their projection of 90 wins?

[filihok]

So based on that, are you supporting their projection of 90 wins?

Well,

First that wasn't their projection. It was a rough projection based only on the projected starting iineup, not including any bench players.

Second, I don't understand what you mean by 'supporting'.

[9&10]

Well,

First that wasn't their projection. It was a rough projection based only on the projected starting iineup, not including any bench players.

Second, I don't understand what you mean by 'supporting'.

OK, let's make this easy. . . do you, or do you not, think the 2013 Red Sox will achieve 90 wins?

[filihok]

OK, let's make this easy. . .

Why do people think there is such virtue in making things easy?

do you, or do you not, think the 2013 Red Sox will achieve 90 wins?

Still appears that you're not understanding projections and probabilities.

If I told you I was going to flip a coin ten times and asked you how many times you thought it would land heads what would you say?

You can even look at this chart

10-coin-toss-histogram.JPG

What's your answer? How many heads will we get if we flip a coin 10 times?







Would you say 5 heads? If you did, you'd be wrong 75% of the time. Is that good guess then? Well...depends. It will be right more than any other number you could pick. But, still, it'll be wrong most of the time.

The best answer would be to say that you'd expect 5 heads 25% of the time, 4 or 6 heads 20% of the time, 3 or 7 heads 12% of the time, 2 or 8 heads 5% of the time, 1 or 9 heads about 2% of the time and 0 or 10 heads less than 1% of the time.

So, what does this have to do with the Red Sox you're probably asking.

The mean projection for the Red Sox is probably something like 86 wins if their true talent is around 90 wins. Those 90 wins are expected to come against an aggregate opponent who wins 50% of the time - an average team. But, the Red Sox play in the AL East and play more games against a bunch of teams who are expected to win more than 50% of their games. So, the Red Sox will be expected to lose more.

If the Red Sox mean projection is 86 wins, then there is some probability they'll win exactly 86 games. Some probability they'll win 87 or 85 games, some probability they'll win 88 or 84 games, some probability they'll win 89 or 83 games, some probability they'll win 90 or 82 games, etc...

[Therwil Flyer]

The spin is beginning in the press and on TV in Boston. The new sherrif has arrived to manage. He seems like a big, rather humorless guy, sort of in the mold of Joe Cronin, Steve O'Neill,or Darrell Johnson; his strength seems to be that he isn't Valentine. I doubt Farrell will ride in the Pan-Mass Challenge, in any event.

John Lackey is now wonderful. He has lost weight and everyone in Florida just loves him, so they say and write. One non-established pitcher has accidentally shot himself inthe leg, and Buchholtz has sprained a hamstring bending over to pick up a baseball.

Pedroia says he relishes being on an underdog team, as they now have more to shoot for, or some similar cliche. He has yet publicly to call out the manager.

John Henry swears he is really interested in the team, but has to keep up with his other activities because just being owner of the Red Sox isn't enough to keep him busy.

Not much seems to be expected of this team, which means that everyone hopes to be pleasantly surprised. Oh, yes, as expected, Terry Francona is morphing into a bad guy, on talk radio at least.

Bryce Brentz is an outfielder.

[Therwil Flyer]

Projections schmojections. . . how many wins were they projected to win last season?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see 'em win 90 games, but I don't see it happening. Like I said, if they win 81 games, I'll be happy.

I project you'll be happy.

[Therwil Flyer]

Why do people think there is such virtue in making things easy?

Because most people don't like probabilistically projections. People want to know whether it's going to rain tomorrow or not. They don't want to know that there's a 45% chance of rain, no matter if your best available forecasts tell you exactly that.

I think what 9&10 wants to know, is what number of wins you would say the Red Sox will have at the end of regular season IF you had to chose a single, specific win number. So, your answer explaining him how to understand Zips projections correctly will do little to make him happy.

And since we are talking projections, the guys at BP ran their Monte Carlo sims and put the Red Sox at a .516 record.

[9&10]

I don't care about coin flips or WAR projections. I look at the roster and the makeup of the rest of the division/league and believe that the 2013 Red Sox are going to be a .500 ballclub. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think they've made enough improvements (not that they could have, given the weak free agent class) to be any better than that.

81 wins. That's my prediction. Anyone else care to make one?

[filihok]

I don't care about coin flips or WAR projections.

Who cares about math, or rationality when instead you can pull numbers from...mid-air.

I look at the roster and the makeup of the rest of the division/league and believe that the 2013 Red Sox are going to be a .500 ballclub.

[9&10]

So what's your prediction?

[filihok]

So what's your prediction?

Sigh

http://www.baseball-fever.com/showth...37#post2119037

[9&10]

Great. Awesome. Brilliant.

Anyone else have a prediction on their win total, or are you gonna go with the nutty professor and his 90 wins?

[filihok]

Great. Awesome. Brilliant.

Anyone else have a prediction on their win total, or are you gonna go with the nutty professor and his 90 wins?

I absolutely hate when people online call out someone for 'reading comprehension' because the vast majority of the time what they are objecting to has nothing to do with reading comprehension.

However, in this case, it appears that you failed to comprehend what I wrote.