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Thread: 2013 ZiPS projections

  1. #1

    2013 ZiPS projections

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tlanta-braves/

    Braves-Depth.png



    That's one hell of a bullpen.
    Especially Mr. Kimbrel: 69 IP, 28 BB 118 Ks (that's 43% of hitters), 1.57 ERA, 1.79 FIP (about 45% of league average) and 2.5 WAR.

    Kris Medlen, who was very good last year, looks to be good again: 145 IP, while giving up 15% less runs than an average pitcher. 3.2 WAR

    The brothers Upton
    BJ: .322/.455 with 25 HR and 35 steals. 9% more offense than league average. 3.5 WAR
    Justin: .348/.442 with 22 HR and 19 steals. 14% more offense than league average. 3.0 WAR


    I still have them second to the Nats in the NL East though

  2. #2
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    On paper we look excellent! I'm still worried because we don't really have any"small ball guys" in that lineup.
    2nd member of the Peter Moylan Fan Club

  3. #3
    Will they really be platooning McCann and Laird or is that just to account for games McCann will sit out to rest?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluesky5 View Post
    Will they really be platooning McCann and Laird or is that just to account for games McCann will sit out to rest?
    Purely resting. McCann will be given every opportunity to get back to normal.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atlanta Braves Freak View Post
    On paper we look excellent! I'm still worried because we don't really have any"small ball guys" in that lineup.
    I'm not worried about that at all. If the Braves don't have anyone that can bunt, Fredi will be less inclined to try it. I don't want anyone other than pitchers trying to bunt. Atlanta had the third-fewest sacrifice hits in the league last year, anyway.

  6. #6
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    Pretty scary lineup. Almost looks like a good AL lineup. The Braves could get 40+ HRs from the 7/8 hole.

    Simmons SS
    Heyward RF
    J Upton LF
    McCann C
    BJ Upton RF
    Freeman 1B
    Uggla 2B
    Johnson 3B
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    I'm not worried about that at all. If the Braves don't have anyone that can bunt, Fredi will be less inclined to try it. I don't want anyone other than pitchers trying to bunt. Atlanta had the third-fewest sacrifice hits in the league last year, anyway.
    IMO, small ball is an integral part of the game, and manufacturing runs in tight games can be the difference, I'm with ABF on this one! But the lineup does look promising for this season, not so sure on the depth?
    turn on, tune in, chill out.........

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    Pretty scary lineup. Almost looks like a good AL lineup. The Braves could get 40+ HRs from the 7/8 hole.

    Simmons SS
    Heyward RF
    J Upton LF
    McCann C
    BJ Upton RF
    Freeman 1B
    Uggla 2B
    Johnson 3B
    I'd almost certainly bat Uggla lead off instead of Simmons.

    Uggla has the higher projected OBP (.335 to .320) and is the better overall hitter (.326 wOBA to .298). You want your better hitters to get more at bats. A lead off hitter is expected to get around 100 more PA's over the course of a season than a #8 hitter.

    This Lineup Analysis Tool indicates that the above lineup (Simmons leading off) would score 4.277 runs per game.


    Moving Uggla to lead off the tool now projects the Braves to score 4.291 runs per game.

    Not a huge difference, but a difference.

    *Note: the tool does not consider handedness nor speed.

  9. #9
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    As smart as you seem to be, filihok, I can't believe you're suggesting this. All Uggla has is walks and his contact percentage is dropping like a rock. I'd sooner put McCann or even Chris Johnson in the leadoff spot instead of Dan. I like "non-outs", but the last thing I want to see is streaky Uggla getting the most at bats on the team.
    Last edited by SamtheBravesFan; 02-17-2013 at 05:48 PM.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    As smart as you seem to be, filihok, I can't believe you're suggesting this. All Uggla has is walks and his contact percentage is dropping like a rock. I'd sooner put McCann or even Chris Johnson in the leadoff spot instead of Dan. I like "non-outs", but the last thing I want to see is streaky Uggla getting the most at bats on the team.
    Uggla was 11% less volatile than the average hitter in 2012

    McCann was 2% less volatile than the average hitter in 2012

    Johnson was 9% more volatile than the average hitter in 2012

    *source

  11. #11
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    Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.
    Why do you think that volatility is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by skar View Post
    IMO, small ball is an integral part of the game, and manufacturing runs in tight games can be the difference, I'm with ABF on this one! But the lineup does look promising for this season, not so sure on the depth?
    I was saying our lineup had no weaknesses. I asked a friend, as a fan of another team and a former baseball player, what he saw as a weakness and he brought up the small ball observation. Knowing how prone to slumps a few guys in this lineup are there might be stretches we have to eke out wins by playing small ball.

    I'm not really worried about depth. Reed Johnson, Janish, Laird, Constanza, Schaefer, Francisco/C. Johnson and the hopefuls Mejia, Gattis, etc. all seem like they'll set us up to have a formidable bench.

    Quote Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.
    Yeah throw the numbers/charts/etc. out. Uggla just isn't a fit to being a leadoff hitter. Common sense IS ALWAYS > stats lol
    2nd member of the Peter Moylan Fan Club

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Atlanta Braves Freak View Post
    Yeah throw the numbers/charts/etc. out. Uggla just isn't a fit to being a leadoff hitter. Common sense IS ALWAYS > stats lol
    Are you sure you're not confusing 'common sense' with 'preconceived notion'?

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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    I'd almost certainly bat Uggla lead off instead of Simmons.

    Uggla has the higher projected OBP (.335 to .320) and is the better overall hitter (.326 wOBA to .298). You want your better hitters to get more at bats. A lead off hitter is expected to get around 100 more PA's over the course of a season than a #8 hitter.
    I'm going off of what either Atlanta's manager or GM said a few weeks ago - that they'd likely try Simmons at leadoff. Whether it works out remains to be seen. But no way do I lead off Uggla and give him more at bats. He's been in decline the past couple of seasons, and his .227 avg / .329 obp over the past two years in no way screams leadoff to me. He's also a slug on the basepaths.

    He's had some success hitting 2nd, but I don't think leading off two RHed hitters is the way to go unless one or both are exceptional at it. Apparently, managers in the league don't consider Uggla leadoff material either since he's done it only once in his career.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    Why do you think that volatility is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter?
    I'm not answering that question, you're the one that brought "volatility" up in this. You're the one that needs to prove to me that Dan Uggla has to bat leadoff for this team, and all you have to give me is his walks and a two-month old stat that isn't particularly telling or consistent.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by SamtheBravesFan View Post
    I'm not answering that question, you're the one that brought "volatility" up in this.
    LOL...no...
    You said that he was 'streaky'. I wondered if that was true. The evidence shows that he was less streaky last season than most hitters.


    You're the one that needs to prove to me that Dan Uggla has to bat leadoff for this team
    I haven't claimed that he HAS to bat leadoff.
    I said he should bat leadoff
    I've given my evidence.
    You've given one reason that turned out to be incorrect.


    all you have to give me is ... a two-month old stat that isn't particularly telling or consistent.
    The stat is telling, in that it contradicts your assertion that Uggla is 'streaky'
    Who cares how old it is? His batting average is somewhere between 11 months and 5 months old, right?

    Back up your claim that volatility is not consistent


    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    I'm going off of what either Atlanta's manager or GM said a few weeks ago - that they'd likely try Simmons at leadoff. Whether it works out remains to be seen. But no way do I lead off Uggla and give him more at bats. He's been in decline the past couple of seasons, and his .227 avg / .329 obp over the past two years in no way screams leadoff to me. He's also a slug on the basepaths.
    What's your reasoning for only citing statistics for the last 2 seasons? He has a career OBP over .340

    Also how do you characterize Uggla as a 'slug' on the basepaths?
    Uggla has taken the extra base (as defined by baseball-reference) 47% of the time in his career, 54% of the time last season and about 60% of the time since he's been in Atlanta. League average last season was 41%

    According to FanGraphs' baserunning metric Uggla has been 6 runs above average in his career and


    He's had some success hitting 2nd, but I don't think leading off two RHed hitters is the way to go unless one or both are exceptional at it.
    Heyward is a lefty, no?

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by filihok View Post
    What's your reasoning for only citing statistics for the last 2 seasons? He has a career OBP over .340
    It's not like I'm using two seasons from 4 or 6 years ago. I'm going by his two most recent - both which show a fairly large discrepancy to his previous seasons. I doubt many would argue that a 30-some hitter's likely to perform closer to his most recent seasons than those early on while in his prime.

    Also how do you characterize Uggla as a 'slug' on the basepaths?
    It takes him some time to get in gear from what I've seen. Dude looks like a comic book character with the skin-tight jerseys and is built like a tank. He may take the extra base while in motion, but I'm more or less talking about jumps from first base.

    Heyward is a lefty, no?
    Yes, which is why I had him slotted at #2 behind Simmons. Their entire lineup is practically L-R-L-R.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Grimm View Post
    It's not like I'm using two seasons from 4 or 6 years ago. I'm going by his two most recent - both which show a fairly large discrepancy to his previous seasons. I doubt many would argue that a 30-some hitter's likely to perform closer to his most recent seasons than those early on while in his prime.
    His OBP last year was .348.

    Yeah, he had a down year in 2011, but his OBP has been very consistent.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...ge=1&type=full

    It takes him some time to get in gear from what I've seen. Dude looks like a comic book character with the skin-tight jerseys and is built like a tank. He may take the extra base while in motion, but I'm more or less talking about jumps from first base.
    How do his jumps from first base figure in if he's able to get around the bases on hits better than most players in the league?
    All the data suggests that he is an average to above average base runner.


    Yes, which is why I had him slotted at #2 behind Simmons. Their entire lineup is practically L-R-L-R.
    So what's the difference if Heyward is behind Uggla???

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