2013 ZiPS projections

[filihok]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...tlanta-braves/

Braves-Depth.png



That's one hell of a bullpen.
Especially Mr. Kimbrel: 69 IP, 28 BB 118 Ks (that's 43% of hitters), 1.57 ERA, 1.79 FIP (about 45% of league average) and 2.5 WAR.

Kris Medlen, who was very good last year, looks to be good again: 145 IP, while giving up 15% less runs than an average pitcher. 3.2 WAR

The brothers Upton
BJ: .322/.455 with 25 HR and 35 steals. 9% more offense than league average. 3.5 WAR
Justin: .348/.442 with 22 HR and 19 steals. 14% more offense than league average. 3.0 WAR


I still have them second to the Nats in the NL East though

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

On paper we look excellent! I'm still worried because we don't really have any"small ball guys" in that lineup.

[bluesky5]

Will they really be platooning McCann and Laird or is that just to account for games McCann will sit out to rest?

[SamtheBravesFan]

Will they really be platooning McCann and Laird or is that just to account for games McCann will sit out to rest?

Purely resting. McCann will be given every opportunity to get back to normal.

[SamtheBravesFan]

On paper we look excellent! I'm still worried because we don't really have any"small ball guys" in that lineup.

I'm not worried about that at all. If the Braves don't have anyone that can bunt, Fredi will be less inclined to try it. I don't want anyone other than pitchers trying to bunt. Atlanta had the third-fewest sacrifice hits in the league last year, anyway.

[Ben Grimm]

Pretty scary lineup. Almost looks like a good AL lineup. The Braves could get 40+ HRs from the 7/8 hole.

Simmons SS
Heyward RF
J Upton LF
McCann C
BJ Upton RF
Freeman 1B
Uggla 2B
Johnson 3B

[skar]

I'm not worried about that at all. If the Braves don't have anyone that can bunt, Fredi will be less inclined to try it. I don't want anyone other than pitchers trying to bunt. Atlanta had the third-fewest sacrifice hits in the league last year, anyway.

IMO, small ball is an integral part of the game, and manufacturing runs in tight games can be the difference, I'm with ABF on this one! But the lineup does look promising for this season, not so sure on the depth?

[filihok]

Pretty scary lineup. Almost looks like a good AL lineup. The Braves could get 40+ HRs from the 7/8 hole.

Simmons SS
Heyward RF
J Upton LF
McCann C
BJ Upton RF
Freeman 1B
Uggla 2B
Johnson 3B

I'd almost certainly bat Uggla lead off instead of Simmons.

Uggla has the higher projected OBP (.335 to .320) and is the better overall hitter (.326 wOBA to .298). You want your better hitters to get more at bats. A lead off hitter is expected to get around 100 more PA's over the course of a season than a #8 hitter.

This Lineup Analysis Tool indicates that the above lineup (Simmons leading off) would score 4.277 runs per game.


Moving Uggla to lead off the tool now projects the Braves to score 4.291 runs per game.

Not a huge difference, but a difference.

*Note: the tool does not consider handedness nor speed.

[SamtheBravesFan]

As smart as you seem to be, filihok, I can't believe you're suggesting this. All Uggla has is walks and his contact percentage is dropping like a rock. I'd sooner put McCann or even Chris Johnson in the leadoff spot instead of Dan. I like "non-outs", but the last thing I want to see is streaky Uggla getting the most at bats on the team.

[filihok]

As smart as you seem to be, filihok, I can't believe you're suggesting this. All Uggla has is walks and his contact percentage is dropping like a rock. I'd sooner put McCann or even Chris Johnson in the leadoff spot instead of Dan. I like "non-outs", but the last thing I want to see is streaky Uggla getting the most at bats on the team.

Uggla was 11% less volatile than the average hitter in 2012

McCann was 2% less volatile than the average hitter in 2012

Johnson was 9% more volatile than the average hitter in 2012

*source

[SamtheBravesFan]

Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.

[filihok]

Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.

Why do you think that volatility is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter?

[Atlanta Braves Freak]

IMO, small ball is an integral part of the game, and manufacturing runs in tight games can be the difference, I'm with ABF on this one! But the lineup does look promising for this season, not so sure on the depth?

I was saying our lineup had no weaknesses. I asked a friend, as a fan of another team and a former baseball player, what he saw as a weakness and he brought up the small ball observation. Knowing how prone to slumps a few guys in this lineup are there might be stretches we have to eke out wins by playing small ball.

I'm not really worried about depth. Reed Johnson, Janish, Laird, Constanza, Schaefer, Francisco/C. Johnson and the hopefuls Mejia, Gattis, etc. all seem like they'll set us up to have a formidable bench.

Okay, then if I use this chart, that means that Justin Upton is the most fit to be the Braves' leadoff hitter because he is the least volatile out of any of them. If anything that proves my point that Uggla shouldn't be doing it.

Yeah throw the numbers/charts/etc. out. Uggla just isn't a fit to being a leadoff hitter. Common sense IS ALWAYS > stats lol

[filihok]

Yeah throw the numbers/charts/etc. out. Uggla just isn't a fit to being a leadoff hitter. Common sense IS ALWAYS > stats lol

Are you sure you're not confusing 'common sense' with 'preconceived notion'?

[Ben Grimm]

I'd almost certainly bat Uggla lead off instead of Simmons.

Uggla has the higher projected OBP (.335 to .320) and is the better overall hitter (.326 wOBA to .298). You want your better hitters to get more at bats. A lead off hitter is expected to get around 100 more PA's over the course of a season than a #8 hitter.

I'm going off of what either Atlanta's manager or GM said a few weeks ago - that they'd likely try Simmons at leadoff. Whether it works out remains to be seen. But no way do I lead off Uggla and give him more at bats. He's been in decline the past couple of seasons, and his .227 avg / .329 obp over the past two years in no way screams leadoff to me. He's also a slug on the basepaths.

He's had some success hitting 2nd, but I don't think leading off two RHed hitters is the way to go unless one or both are exceptional at it. Apparently, managers in the league don't consider Uggla leadoff material either since he's done it only once in his career.

[SamtheBravesFan]

Why do you think that volatility is the most important factor for a leadoff hitter?

I'm not answering that question, you're the one that brought "volatility" up in this. You're the one that needs to prove to me that Dan Uggla has to bat leadoff for this team, and all you have to give me is his walks and a two-month old stat that isn't particularly telling or consistent.

[filihok]

I'm not answering that question, you're the one that brought "volatility" up in this.

LOL...no...
You said that he was 'streaky'. I wondered if that was true. The evidence shows that he was less streaky last season than most hitters.

You're the one that needs to prove to me that Dan Uggla has to bat leadoff for this team

I haven't claimed that he HAS to bat leadoff.
I said he should bat leadoff
I've given my evidence.
You've given one reason that turned out to be incorrect.

all you have to give me is ... a two-month old stat that isn't particularly telling or consistent.

The stat is telling, in that it contradicts your assertion that Uggla is 'streaky'
Who cares how old it is? His batting average is somewhere between 11 months and 5 months old, right?

Back up your claim that volatility is not consistent

I'm going off of what either Atlanta's manager or GM said a few weeks ago - that they'd likely try Simmons at leadoff. Whether it works out remains to be seen. But no way do I lead off Uggla and give him more at bats. He's been in decline the past couple of seasons, and his .227 avg / .329 obp over the past two years in no way screams leadoff to me. He's also a slug on the basepaths.

What's your reasoning for only citing statistics for the last 2 seasons? He has a career OBP over .340

Also how do you characterize Uggla as a 'slug' on the basepaths?
Uggla has taken the extra base (as defined by baseball-reference) 47% of the time in his career, 54% of the time last season and about 60% of the time since he's been in Atlanta. League average last season was 41%

According to FanGraphs' baserunning metric Uggla has been 6 runs above average in his career and

He's had some success hitting 2nd, but I don't think leading off two RHed hitters is the way to go unless one or both are exceptional at it.

Heyward is a lefty, no?

[Ben Grimm]

What's your reasoning for only citing statistics for the last 2 seasons? He has a career OBP over .340

It's not like I'm using two seasons from 4 or 6 years ago. I'm going by his two most recent - both which show a fairly large discrepancy to his previous seasons. I doubt many would argue that a 30-some hitter's likely to perform closer to his most recent seasons than those early on while in his prime.

Also how do you characterize Uggla as a 'slug' on the basepaths?

It takes him some time to get in gear from what I've seen. Dude looks like a comic book character with the skin-tight jerseys and is built like a tank. He may take the extra base while in motion, but I'm more or less talking about jumps from first base.

Heyward is a lefty, no?

Yes, which is why I had him slotted at #2 behind Simmons. Their entire lineup is practically L-R-L-R.

[filihok]

It's not like I'm using two seasons from 4 or 6 years ago. I'm going by his two most recent - both which show a fairly large discrepancy to his previous seasons. I doubt many would argue that a 30-some hitter's likely to perform closer to his most recent seasons than those early on while in his prime.

His OBP last year was .348.

Yeah, he had a down year in 2011, but his OBP has been very consistent.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx...ge=1&type=full

It takes him some time to get in gear from what I've seen. Dude looks like a comic book character with the skin-tight jerseys and is built like a tank. He may take the extra base while in motion, but I'm more or less talking about jumps from first base.

How do his jumps from first base figure in if he's able to get around the bases on hits better than most players in the league?
All the data suggests that he is an average to above average base runner.

Yes, which is why I had him slotted at #2 behind Simmons. Their entire lineup is practically L-R-L-R.

So what's the difference if Heyward is behind Uggla???