Page 1 of 15 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 25 of 373

Thread: The Yankees Doom Watch

  1. #1

    The Yankees Doom Watch

    Las Vegas oddsmakers are setting 86.5 wins as the Yankees over/under for 2013. At that rate the Yankees would be lucky to snag a Wild Card spot. THIS SITUATION IS WHAT SOME SPORTSWRITERS HAVE DUBBED "THE YANKEES DOOM WATCH".
    Of the pre-season magazines only The Sporting News' baseball Annual is sticking with the traditional logic that you don't bet against the Yankees and the magazine predicts the Yanks wil ltake the A.L. East Division title. The Yankees Brian Cashman has set the goal to remain under the 2014 $189 million dollar limit to avoid heavy penalties both financial and to draft picks the Yankees would forfeit. That means that the Yankees relative "penny pinching" will have to continue into the next offseason as well. One of the manifestations of the tightening of Yankee ownerships wallets is the faCT THAT THE YANKEES WILL BE HEADING INTO THE 2013 SEASON WITHOUT AN ESTABLISHED EVERYDAY MLB CATCHER. Of course putting the Yankees in the unfamiliar role of underdog might be just the motivation for the team to jell and prove the critics wrong. Certainly Derek Jeter will be motivated TO DO JUST THIS AND SO WILL MARIANO RIVERA and Andy Pettitte, WHO are LIKELY headed into their FINAL major leagues SEASONS AND both WILL WANT TO GO OUT WINNERS.

    -DENNIS ORLANDINI (philliesfiend55).
    Last edited by philliesfiend55; 02-14-2013 at 07:38 AM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Out in left field
    Posts
    4,756
    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    Las Vegas oddsmakers are setting 86.5 wins as the Yankees over/under for 2013. At that rate the Yankees would be lucky to snag a Wild Card spot. THIS SITUATION IS WHAT SOME SPORTSWRITERS HAVE DUBBED "THE YANKEES DOOM WATCH".
    Of the pre-season magazines only The Sporting News' baseball Annual is sticking with the traditional logic that you don't bet against the Yankees and the magazine predicts the Yanks wil ltake the A.L. East Division title. The Yankees Brian Cashman has set the goal to remain under the 2014 $189 million dollar limit to avoid heavy penalties both financial and to draft picks the Yankees would forfeit. That means that the Yankees relative "penny pinching" will have to continue into the next offseason as well. One of the manifestations of the tightening of Yankee ownerships wallets is the faCT THAT THE YANKEES WILL BE HEADING INTO THE 2013 SEASON WITHOUT AN ESTABLISHED EVERYDAY MLB CATCHER. Of course putting the Yankees in the unfamiliar role of underdog might be just the motivation for the team to jell and prove the critics wrong. Certainly Derek Jeter will be motivated TO DO JUST THIS AND SO WILL MARIANO RIVERA and Andy Pettitte, WHO are LIKELY headed into their FINAL major leagues SEASONS AND both WILL WANT TO GO OUT WINNERS.

    -DENNIS ORLANDINI (philliesfiend55).
    It'd be pretty difficult for them to get half a win. Unless you count ties.
    *** Submit your personal HOF as your ballot for the Single Ballot BBF Hall of Fame! ***
    ** Vote in BBF's 2015 BBWAA HOF Election with the 10-Player Limit and with No Limit! **

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Rockland County, NY
    Posts
    11,389
    Blog Entries
    1
    What a coincidence! I predicted 87 wins for them and I had no idea what the Vegas odds were.
    "There has always been a saying in baseball that you can't make a hitter, but I think you can improve a hitter. More than you can improve a fielder. More mistakes are made hitting than in any other part of the game."
    - Ted Williams

    "I know I'm the world's worst fielder, but who gets paid for fielding? There isn't a great fielder in baseball getting the kind of dough I get paid for hitting."
    - Dick Stuart

  4. #4
    The last few seasons have had the Yankees doom watch....... Everyone was ready to jump on the bandwagon of the Yankees have collapsed, they are old, etc. Same thing with Jeter. Yet, they continue to surprise people. Not saying this year could be the year they finally show some weaknesses. But, look at the Red Sox in 2011 when they had that great team on paper...... Now the Blue Jays have that great team on paper...... You can't judge anything on paper......

    Wait until the season and see how the Yankees perform before starting this doom watch.....

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Location
    Far NE Philadelphia
    Posts
    5,500
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees come out of the gate a bit slow. IIRC, 22 of their 28 April games are against teams with .500+ records last season. It gets a lot easier in May.
    "Chuckie doesn't take on 2-0. Chuckie's hackin'." - Chuck Carr two days prior to being released by the Milwaukee Brewers

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    U.S.A.
    Posts
    3,175
    Aaah. The Yankees always find their way into the playoffs. They're one of those teams.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    Las Vegas oddsmakers are setting 86.5 wins as the Yankees over/under for 2013. At that rate the Yankees would be lucky to snag a Wild Card spot. THIS SITUATION IS WHAT SOME SPORTSWRITERS HAVE DUBBED "THE YANKEES DOOM WATCH".
    Of the pre-season magazines only The Sporting News' baseball Annual is sticking with the traditional logic that you don't bet against the Yankees and the magazine predicts the Yanks wil ltake the A.L. East Division title. The Yankees Brian Cashman has set the goal to remain under the 2014 $189 million dollar limit to avoid heavy penalties both financial and to draft picks the Yankees would forfeit. That means that the Yankees relative "penny pinching" will have to continue into the next offseason as well. One of the manifestations of the tightening of Yankee ownerships wallets is the faCT THAT THE YANKEES WILL BE HEADING INTO THE 2013 SEASON WITHOUT AN ESTABLISHED EVERYDAY MLB CATCHER. Of course putting the Yankees in the unfamiliar role of underdog might be just the motivation for the team to jell and prove the critics wrong. Certainly Derek Jeter will be motivated TO DO JUST THIS AND SO WILL MARIANO RIVERA and Andy Pettitte, WHO are LIKELY headed into their FINAL major leagues SEASONS AND both WILL WANT TO GO OUT WINNERS.

    -DENNIS ORLANDINI (philliesfiend55).
    The way THAT you CAPITALIZE some WORDS IS VERY STRANGE.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    1,431
    The single most important reason the Yankees will face a challenging season is their pitching. The only pitcher worthy of his hype is Sebathia, and everyone else represents a set of 'ifs'. In fact, IMO, the only reason the Yanks will win more than they lose is the depth of their pockets with midseason acquisitions to fix the holes which will show up.

    The draft system works after all, as long as we wait long enough.
    Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP.

    A fanatic is someone who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -- Winston Churchill.

    Experience is the hardest teacher. She gives the test first and the lesson later. -- Dan Quisenberry.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Rockland County, NY
    Posts
    11,389
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by abolishthedh View Post
    The single most important reason the Yankees will face a challenging season is their pitching. The only pitcher worthy of his hype is Sebathia, and everyone else represents a set of 'ifs'. In fact, IMO, the only reason the Yanks will win more than they lose is the depth of their pockets with midseason acquisitions to fix the holes which will show up.

    The draft system works after all, as long as we wait long enough.
    Kuroda was excellent last year and has never had a bad seasons since coming to the States. He's old, though. I'll grant you that.
    "There has always been a saying in baseball that you can't make a hitter, but I think you can improve a hitter. More than you can improve a fielder. More mistakes are made hitting than in any other part of the game."
    - Ted Williams

    "I know I'm the world's worst fielder, but who gets paid for fielding? There isn't a great fielder in baseball getting the kind of dough I get paid for hitting."
    - Dick Stuart

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Staten Island, New York
    Posts
    5,603
    Quote Originally Posted by abolishthedh View Post
    The single most important reason the Yankees will face a challenging season is their pitching. The only pitcher worthy of his hype is Sebathia, and everyone else represents a set of 'ifs'. In fact, IMO, the only reason the Yanks will win more than they lose is the depth of their pockets with midseason acquisitions to fix the holes which will show up.

    The draft system works after all, as long as we wait long enough.
    I couldn't disagree more. I think their pitching staff is fantastic. Hitting is what worries me.
    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Staten Island, New York
    Posts
    5,603
    Quote Originally Posted by GiambiJuice View Post
    Kuroda was excellent last year and has never had a bad seasons since coming to the States. He's old, though. I'll grant you that.
    Not for a pitcher he isn't, he's only 38 I think. They decline far later than hitters.
    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Dominican Republic
    Posts
    2,262
    If the East is as close as people say, 87 wins might be enough for the second wild card. If not, then all bets are off.

    Now I wonder, Doom Watch?
    "I am not too serious about anything. I believe you have to enjoy yourself to get the most out of your ability."-
    George Brett

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    Quote Originally Posted by philliesfiend55 View Post
    Las Vegas oddsmakers are setting 86.5 wins as the Yankees over/under for 2013. At that rate the Yankees would be lucky to snag a Wild Card spot.
    These oddsmakers also predicted in 2012 that the O's would be the 2nd worst team in MLB, and the A's would be tied for the 3rd worst team.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    ......................
    Last edited by ipitch; 02-14-2013 at 12:48 PM.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by ian2813 View Post
    Aaah. The Yankees always find their way into the playoffs. They're one of those teams.
    One year the Pittsburgh Pirates will finish above .500 (although that hasn't happened in 20 years).
    One year the New York Yankees will finish below .500 (although that hasn't happened in 20 years). It's only 5 seasons since they failed to make the playoffs in 2008.
    One year the Detroit Red Wings will fail to make the NHL playoffs (although that's something that hasn't happened in 21 seasons ).

    Streaks are like records. They are made to be broken.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Dog River, SK
    Posts
    2,820
    I don't care what the oddsmakers think. What do they know about baseball?
    "If he's a good fastball hitter...should I throw him a bad fastball?"
    - Deep Thoughts by Larry Andersen

  17. #17
    The Yanks are slightly worse than the Jays and Rays on paper. Slightly. A game or two. On paper.

    They have a sold and deep rotation. They have a strong lineup featuring one of the best players in baseball.
    They have a great bullpen.
    They have an outstanding defensive outfield.

    That said they have quite a few weaknesses. Catcher is horrible. Shortstop defense is horrible. Outfield power is horrible.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    Staten Island, New York
    Posts
    5,603
    Quote Originally Posted by NJYankeeFan View Post
    The Yanks are slightly worse than the Jays and Rays on paper. Slightly. A game or two. On paper.

    They have a sold and deep rotation. They have a strong lineup featuring one of the best players in baseball.
    They have a great bullpen.
    They have an outstanding defensive outfield.

    That said they have quite a few weaknesses. Catcher is horrible. Shortstop defense is horrible. Outfield power is horrible.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2
    What exactly is considered "horrible" for a combined starting outfield? They could potentially hit 60 home runs. 45, 10, and 5.
    Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Laser Beam View Post
    I don't care what the oddsmakers think. What do they know about baseball?
    They know a boatload. They have huge amounts of data, including the betting patterns of successful and unsuccessful gamblers which they will use to modify their values as more bets come in.

    That's how they get to stay oddsmakers.
    Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    They know a boatload. They have huge amounts of data, including the betting patterns of successful and unsuccessful gamblers which they will use to modify their values as more bets come in.

    That's how they get to stay oddsmakers.
    "Modifying their values" is another way of saying that they screwed up. They want 50% of the money to be bet on each side so that they are guaranteed to make money. If they have to move the line, that means that too much was bet on one side, and therefore they could lose millions. That does happen occasionally.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ipitch View Post
    "Modifying their values" is another way of saying that they screwed up. They want 50% of the money to be bet on each side so that they are guaranteed to make money. If they have to move the line, that means that too much was bet on one side, and therefore they could lose millions. That does happen occasionally.
    Well, we don't really know the inner workings, but it's routine for the line to move. It's not screwing up, any more than Nate Silver changing his election probabilities as new polling data comes in. Screwing up would be ignoring new information.

    I know that oddsmakers are supposed to set a break-even line, but I don't know that they actually do, or that they all do. They may find in their analyses that the knowledge gap is so much in their favor that they can beat the odds routinely, and set the line accordingly.

    Anyway, it's a truism that predictions of complex outcomes closer to the event are more accurate than distant ones, so revising lines is just automatic. It's math, not magic.
    Indeed the first step toward finding out is to acknowledge you do not satisfactorily know already; so that no blight can so surely arrest all intellectual growth as the blight of cocksureness.--CS Peirce

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ipitch View Post
    These oddsmakers also predicted in 2012 that the O's would be the 2nd worst team in MLB, and the A's would be tied for the 3rd worst team.
    Oddsmakers don't try to rank teams or pick winners. They quite successfully pick the win total, point spread, over/under, etc that will attract an equal amount of bets on both sides.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Laser Beam View Post
    I don't care what the oddsmakers think. What do they know about baseball?
    Bet the over then. I wouldn't personally since they have no catcher, no A-Rod, no Swisher, no clutch hits from Ibanez, a 43 year old closer (with no Soriano to bail him out this year), and 40 year old PED-less Pettitte. Not to mention a declining Teixeira and a shortstop who fractured an ankle while running on grass the last time he played.

    Should be easy money!
    Last edited by Yaz; 02-14-2013 at 08:21 PM.

  23. #23
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    Quote Originally Posted by Yaz View Post
    Oddsmakers don't try to rank teams or pick winners. They quite successfully pick the win total, point spread, over/under, etc that will attract an equal amount of bets on both sides.
    I'm aware - I said just that in post #20. My point is that Yankee fans should not give up hope just because the Yankees over/under is 86.5.

  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    They may find in their analyses that the knowledge gap is so much in their favor that they can beat the odds routinely, and set the line accordingly.
    Not sure what you mean by this. There's no way to set over/under odds in favor of the bookmaker.

  25. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    5,651
    Quote Originally Posted by Jackaroo Dave View Post
    Well, we don't really know the inner workings, but it's routine for the line to move. It's not screwing up, any more than Nate Silver changing his election probabilities as new polling data comes in. Screwing up would be ignoring new information.
    What about when there is no new information though, such as with NFL games? If the opening line on an NFL game is -6 and nothing happens to either team (eg. injuries) during the week, but yet the line moves to -3 after a few days, then I would consider them to have screwed up, since they tried and failed to have 50% of the money bet on each team. I do think that the occasional screw-up is unavoidable though.

Page 1 of 15 12311 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •