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Thread: Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

  1. #21
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    Ok, complete through 2013.

    Is there any way to account for the DH not being in the NL....like a certain % boost to the NL number? Or we just leave it as is?
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    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-24-2014 at 05:59 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Ok, complete through 2013.

    Is there any way to account for the DH not being in the NL....like a certain % boost to the NL number? Or we just leave it as is?
    You can try. Since OPS+ is about 6% lower with pitchers you could multiply the NL rates by 1.06, but DH's are something like 16% above average, spread through the lineup that would also be another 2% there. So 1.08. That's a first impression. In fact it raises an issue that even though pitchers are removed in finding OPS+, AL hitters are still compared to a lineup with a DH added.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    You can try. Since OPS+ is about 6% lower with pitchers you could multiply the NL rates by 1.06, but DH's are something like 16% above average, spread through the lineup that would also be another 2% there. So 1.08. That's a first impression. In fact it raises an issue that even though pitchers are removed in finding OPS+, AL hitters are still compared to a lineup with a DH added.
    So to create an even playing field, the goal is to statistically figure out a way to remove the pitcher and supplant a hypothetical DH into the NL? That would be easier and more accurate than doing the reverse; that is, to attempt to remove the DH from the AL, correct? Seems the latter would create sooo many more issues.

    From 1994 to 2007, the AL AVERAGED .557 SAeff....the NL had NO SINGLE SEASON that high in the same span.

    On a side note...for SAeff.....

    Do we just divide the players' total by their league AVG total to get relative?
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-24-2014 at 07:24 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

    Do we just divide the players' total by their league AVG total to get relative?
    Yes, that is the way to do it.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Yes, that is the way to do it.
    K thanks

    When finding league avg, should I be concerned with players having partial seasons, or just find the avg from their first year, to last year, cut and dry?

    Any way to tie RC into this, or is that over-doing things?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  6. #26
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    ----------------------------------------------------
    Code:
                                 (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                    
                    RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
    Code:
    Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
    TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
    Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
    Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
    BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
    Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
    Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
    McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
    MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
    JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
    Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
    MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
    LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
    Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
    Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
    ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
    WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
    Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
    BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
    Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
    Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
    Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
    FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
    Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
    Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
    Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
    EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
    SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
    RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-29-2014 at 06:59 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  7. #27
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    Brett,

    I know you're spread thin between the WAR talk, but a couple things.

    Ok, we have slugging efficiency. We have the league avg slugging efficiency throughout their careers, which gives us a relative number. We have the avg park factor of their home parks throughout their career.

    Park factor is nice in getting an overall picture of what others did, but next I'd like to hone in on each players performance home/road; what THEY actually did but not sure how. You said on avg, players slug 2% better at home and they produce 2% more total bases/out at home. Should we take their road slugging number and apply a 4% boost, to get an "expected" home number, and then look at the difference between their actual home and the "expected"?

    Aside from that, a couple other questions.

    1. Would applying an across the board boost for righties be legit? Considering righties face a platoon disadvantage in probably 60-70% of their PA, I think so but what do you think. If so, how and when should it be applied?

    2. I know you said you liked battingWAA (Rbat / (RAR/WAR)). Would that be something worth including, or is this best kept as a slugging based stat?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  8. #28
    I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

    This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

    In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

    I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



    Code:
    Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
    362	        163	                59006
    339	        201	                68139
    334	        145	                48430
    259	        242	                62678
    305	        180	                54900
    289	        221	                63869
    346	        186	                64356
    284	        192	                54528
    282	        155	                43710
    340	        189	                64260
    173	        213	                36849
    328	        196	                64288
    217	        125	                27125
    
                    3858	                 712138
    712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

    League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

    173.51 sOPS+

    His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

    So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
    Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014 at 11:07 AM.

  9. #29
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    Inbox full Brett.....

    Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

    Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

    Have a question.

    He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  10. #30
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    Brett can you check my work on this?

    This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

    Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
    Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

    Ballgame-sOPS+.jpg

    Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-30-2014 at 06:25 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    I am posting Dimaggio's composite sOPS+ for home and away, independent of home offensive environment (ie park factor).

    This shows differences in Dimaggio's production at home versus all players in their home park, and with their home offensive setting put at the league average, and his road production versus all players on the road.

    In other words, when road OPS+ is higher than home OPS+ it strongly suggests that the player SPECIFICALLY benefitted in relative production from his home park. It cancels out effects that a park has on ALL players such as Coors field just boosting offense as a whole.

    I have also removed pitchers to make it consistent with OPS+ total. The only things it doesn't do is account for a player not having to hit in their home park on the road, and not facing their own pitching staff.



    Code:
    Road Pas	Road sOPS+	PAxsOPS+
    362	        163	                59006
    339	        201	                68139
    334	        145	                48430
    259	        242	                62678
    305	        180	                54900
    289	        221	                63869
    346	        186	                64356
    284	        192	                54528
    282	        155	                43710
    340	        189	                64260
    173	        213	                36849
    328	        196	                64288
    217	        125	                27125
    
                    3858	                 712138
    712138/3858=184.6 Career road sOPS+ including pitchers

    League OPS+ with pitchers is 94 in his seasons so to remove pitchers multiply his OPS+ by .94 to get:

    173.51 sOPS+

    His overall was 155 so to get the home sOPS+ take 155 x 2 minus 173.5 to get 136.49

    So Dimaggio had a 173.5 road relative OPS+ and a 136.5 home OPS+. Technically we should round them both to the 1s place, which would be 174 and 136. Quite telling of what his park did.
    Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
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  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Other than issues quantifying catchers, I think one-size-fits all park factors are WARs biggest issues. How hard would it be to at least make park effects batting-side specific? It seems more time-consuming than difficult. Maybe there is an aspect i am not considering.
    I'm willing to put in the work, just need to know what direction to go.

    I like the direction we were going with SAeff (post#26) but seems like it needs one more step.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I'm willing to put in the work, just need to know what direction to go.

    I like the direction we were going with SAeff (post#26) but seems like it needs one more step.
    I'd be lying if I said I even know where to start. So many variables.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Brett can you check my work on this?

    This just doesn't seem right, for a guy with

    Home - .361/.496/.652 - 106 tOPS+
    Away - .328/.467/.615 --- 94 tOPS+

    Ballgame-sOPS+.jpg

    Is this stat basically just saying, hey....I know he benefitted from his home park, but not as much as others throughout the league did? If that's the case, I need to question if I'm cut-out for this stat stuff. Context and perspective is important, but if we're just gonna completely throw out what THAT PLAYER ACTUALLY DID, and go 100% by league avgs....well Sammy Shortstop or Carl Catcher could be impacting the numbers. I'll hold off over-reacting until I hear about the min PA thing, and if the work is even right

    Well we know that Ted Williams was hurt in relative production by his home park. He played in a park that favored right handed hitters. That is the point of relative splits. I don't see the problem. Ted Williams road numbers WERE 192 OPS+ relative to what everyone else did on the road. If Williams WAS 192 relative to the road, and 190 overall, he has to be a little under 190 at home. This is not about being hurt or helped in stats, its about being hurt or helped in relative stats, and therefore in "value".
    Last edited by brett; 04-30-2014 at 07:28 PM.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Inbox full Brett.....

    Ok, I will do that. I only need to do the AL up until like '73 or so, right?

    Anyway, I'm doing Williams right now.

    Have a question.

    He's got a season with 5 PA and a 231 away sOPS. Will that throw off the results? Do we need a min PA? Or because it's a rate stat and not a counting stat, just roll with it? I'd say a minimum ONLY because, with such few PA, a player has less chance to regress toward the mean. What say you?
    The low PA seasons will not throw things off, because they are only getting weighted by the number of PAs.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Well we know that Ted Williams was hurt in relative production by his home park. He played in a park that favored right handed hitters. That is the point of relative splits. I don't see the problem. Ted Williams road numbers WERE 192 OPS+ relative to what everyone else did on the road. If Williams WAS 192 relative to the road, and 190 overall, he has to be a little under 190 at home. This is not about being hurt or helped in stats, its about being hurt or helped in relative stats, and therefore in "value".
    Ok thats a good explanation.

    would you say that if we were able to look at handedness, the results would more resemble his Home Road / difference?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  17. #37
    another thing I was going to say is that Williams was therefore hurt in WAR by playing in a high offensive park that favored right handed hitters (compared to usual splits). Because of his high offensive park, he gets fewer "runs" for each thing he did with the bat. It may sound odd, because I think they should have given him his actual runs produced, and converted them into fewer "wins" because it took more runs to win in Boston, but the way WAR does it, within a season, all players get their "runs" adjusted to a standard park of the season. From one season to another, the conversion of runs to wins is different depending on the run environment. High run environment might be 10.5 runs per win, low might be 9.5.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Ok thats a good explanation.

    would you say that if we were able to look at handedness, the results would more resemble his Home Road / difference?

    Do you mean Williams versus left and right handed pitchers, or relative to left handed batters?

    I think Williams would have a much lower OPS+ relative to left handed pitchers than the league, but good for a lefty against lefties, probably similar to his overall rate.

    Compared to all left handed hitters, Williams would probably be lower than 190, but its hard to tell. The hitting edge to lefties basically raises the number of left handed hitters up to a proportion where they don't hit better than righties at the same position. There are about 10% lefties in the population but something like 30% in lineups, so the lefty edge pushes the amount of lefties up, but if we compared Williams to the top 1/3 of lefties (1/10th of the league and the population rate) he'd be lower.

    However, in sports in GENERAL, left handers are more likely to be elite athletes even when handedness is not a factor in the sport. About half of all elite athletes across all sports are left handed. Even things like sprinting.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    another thing I was going to say is that Williams was therefore hurt in WAR by playing in a high offensive park that favored right handed hitters (compared to usual splits). Because of his high offensive park, he gets fewer "runs" for each thing he did with the bat. It may sound odd, because I think they should have given him his actual runs produced, and converted them into fewer "wins" because it took more runs to win in Boston, but the way WAR does it, within a season, all players get their "runs" adjusted to a standard park of the season. From one season to another, the conversion of runs to wins is different depending on the run environment. High run environment might be 10.5 runs per win, low might be 9.5.
    Does that same issue exist in WAA?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  20. #40
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    Ok, here's Mr. George Herman......all 1914 PA were at home, that's why it starts in 1915.

    After picking a few more specific players, I'll have the full excel file with AL OPS+ and will post it.

    RuthsOPS+.jpg

    A couple quick questions Brett.....

    1. I know we're removing the pitcher's batting by looking at league OPS+ but shouldn't we somehow attempt to replace that pitcher with a "DH" type batter to make a level playing field for later eras? Otherwise we have just eight hitters?

    2. Would it be more revealing or necessary to look at sOPS/650 or /162 for shorter career guys, or since it's a rate thing, it doesn't matter?
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-01-2014 at 05:56 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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