Page 4 of 37 FirstFirst ... 2345614 ... LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 726

Thread: Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

  1. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I was curious to see how this sOPS+ thing would handle Piazza, who has a 91 to 108 home/road tOPS.

    The home/road edge is significantly reduced. Guess you were right Brett, when you said tOPS has serious flaws.

    If the expected home advantage here is 2% (or whatever it is), then how do we handle a 3.71% road edge?
    Yea. He had a 91 home tOPS+ because his home park was a low offensive park, but he was only hurt a little more than the average player by that park.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Did you mean, benefitted from the road parks?
    Sort of. I meant to say HURT by his HOME park.

  3. #63
    By the way, I am guessing that Ott may have had a higher s-OPS+ on the road, or very close. I think Yaz' s-OPS+ IS better at home though, I'm guessing maybe 134 to 126. And I can pretty much promise you that Boggs was MUCH better at home.

    People also underestimate the road versus home effect.

    A .300/.400/.500 hitter will naturally be 12-20 points higher in each of the 3 percentages at home than on the road.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Yea. He had a 91 home tOPS+ because his home park was a low offensive park, but he was only hurt a little more than the average player by that park.
    That makes sense.

    Can we do anything to adjust for the expected home boost?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    That makes sense.

    Can we do anything to adjust for the expected home boost?
    The answer is to use his road s-OPS+. Its how he hit relative to everyone on the road in basically neutral parks. So his 145 road s-OPS+ would be what we would expect him to do at home in a normal park.

    Personally I have tended to take a players s-OPS+ and average it with his overall OPS+, with the assumption that there is some adaptation ability. For example if Boggs road s-OPS+ was 116 and his overall was 130, I'd tend to rate him splitting the difference at 123, assuming that he was 116 in a neutral setting but that his road rates may have been a little hurt because he adapted his style to his home park, and that his ability to adapt was a plus.

    And consider that for Yaz the splits are significant. If Boston were not an offensive park, it would be like taking a .300 hitter and first having him hit about .306 at home and .294 on the road because of normal splits and THEN going .314 at home and .286 on the road because his park also was tailored to his particular style.
    Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014 at 07:51 AM.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    The answer is to use his road s-OPS+. Its how he hit relative to everyone on the road in basically neutral parks. So his 145 road s-OPS+ would be what we would expect him to do at home in a normal park.

    Personally I have tended to take a players s-OPS+ and average it with his overall OPS+, with the assumption that there is some adaptation ability. For example if Boggs road s-OPS+ was 116 and his overall was 130, I'd tend to rate him splitting the difference at 123, assuming that he was 116 in a neutral setting but that his road rates may have been a little hurt because he adapted his style to his home park, and that his ability to adapt was a plus.
    I dont agree with your reasoning, simply because sometimes players just land in the right situation. It's not necessarily that they're doing anything different.

    But I would be in favor of doing that, the avg of road sOPS+ and overall, if the road is lower. If road is higher something should also be done.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014 at 07:45 AM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  7. #67
    I did a quick run of Yaz, and since the DH came in, he ended up with an average pitcher effect of .96.

    I got 133 home and 127 road within rounding variations of about 1 point, just a quick check.

    Doesn't seem like a big split , but it would have cost him 4.7 WAA and WAR which is nearly 10% of his career WAA had hit hit relatively as well at home as on the road. What it means is that everyone was helped by the park, but he was helped about 20% more than average.

    So is a 127 road OPS+ consistent with his .357 and .422 career marks in OB and slugging?

    The answer is yes. I sampled a few season and got a league average of about .316 and .374 during his career. The pitcher effect and the road effect are just about equal and opposite for him. Using those rates I get 126 on the road, and he also didn't get to hit in Boston on the road which is worth about an extra point.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I dont agree with your reasoning, simply because sometimes players just land in the right situation. It's not necessarily that they're doing anything different.

    But I would be in favor of doing that, the avg of road sOPS+ and overall, if the road is lower. If road is higher something should also be done.
    When a player is better on the road I don't usually average them. I figure that he is better in at least 7 out of 8 parks and HIS park is the anomaly. But we should at least figure he'd have to hit there 1/8 of the time? And this is especially true if we can identify a physical reason that explains the lower relative home rates. If a player is better at home though, I do tend to think that while he was able to take advantage, his approach may have cost him in part on the road.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Can u run Hack Wilson for me? At work sorry.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  10. #70
    OK 10 minutes.

    What would you expect for him?
    Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014 at 08:18 AM.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    probably because it's being compared against other hitters it seems like every point difference in either direction carries a lot more weight then tOPS for instance.

    Even though a guy might have huge home/road splits, and he got to play there 81 times a year, others throughout the league performed well too. So each point is significant.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014 at 08:22 AM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    don't know what his overall is offhand but I would expect at least a seven or eight point difference
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  13. #73
    138 road so 146 home. Pretty big.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Wow yeah about dead on.

    I bet Walker goes 10+ lol
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    I wonder though. More hitters throughout the league, and up and down modern lineups take a slugging approach; even middle infielders.

    So that means it will be harder for modern guys to separate and for a gap to be created. In other words, Hack will show to be above the league avg further than if middle infielders were taking his approach.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Wow yeah about dead on.

    I bet Walker goes 10+ lol

    Who, Larry Walker? I bet he is almost zero. Colorado had almost 50% more offense for VISITING players in some seasons. I am going to run just his years which were totally CO.
    Last edited by brett; 05-05-2014 at 09:20 AM.

  17. #77
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Good point.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  18. #78
    well you were right. He was 158 at home and 136 on the road relative to everyone during the CO years. Probably a 14-15 point split over his whole career.

    I think Helton and Tulo nearly break even though.

    I'm estimating that using his road OPS+ he would have lost about 8 WAR. That brings him down from 73 to 65.

    By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,492
    Wowsers. Ok Im on a roll. Another 7 or 8 point guy has to be Sandberg.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    By the way I have never pushed for him as a HOFer. Very good, but not quite over the threshold.
    Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
    Last edited by drstrangelove; 05-05-2014 at 12:57 PM.
    "It's better to look good, than be good."

Page 4 of 37 FirstFirst ... 2345614 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •