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Thread: Progressing Toward Better Stats Thread

  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by drstrangelove View Post
    Not to digress, but how is a person who plays a tough position (RF), who fields great (+94 Rfield), runs great (+40 Rbase) and has a 136 Road OPS+ (81st if neutralized H/A to 139 OPS+) in 2,000 games not over the threshold?
    Well, OK, I should have said my hall of fame, because I think that it is a little too large, though 65 WAR would basically right at my border for a small hall of position players, maybe 120. Maybe that would turn out to be too small.

    Second, the 136 road OPS+ is relative to everyone else on the road already-I've already neutralized the normal road drop. THAT would put him in a tie for 132, and the drop in WAR would move him from 55th to 93rd.

    But Walker is basically in the group that is not on my "automatic in" group, but deserving of strong consideration. He's just battling 15-25 guys around there. Maybe I should run his career splits anyway to see if the Coors field hangover hurt him.

  2. #82
    So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

    Here are the splits for
    career: 154 to 128
    Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
    No CO home park years:131 to 124


    My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

    If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

    But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    So I added up Walker a little off, and in his favor.

    Here are the splits for
    career: 154 to 128
    Exclusive CO home park years: 164 to 130
    No CO home park years:131 to 124


    My main mistake in posts over the years in which I got CO guys higher was that I did not remove pitchers in estimating their road OPS+.

    If Walker's road rates are the true indicator, he should lose 13 WAR.

    But it also looks like Walker may have been hurt from the "Coors hangover". We might want to see his splits in CO when it wasn't his home park.
    Not sure what you mean by hangover. You mean his head was hurting from not being able to hit there?

    Not much to go on, him in Colorado when it wasn't his home field. In 1994 it was Mile High; he went .231/.231/.385 in 13 PA. But that was before he played there, so can't be considered a hangover. In 2005 he batted .091 and slugged .091 in 12 PA .

    I think Walker was a good hitter no matter where he played, but we shouldn't ignore what's right in front of us. Through no fault of his own, the guy played where he played and certainly benefitted from his park.

    Career tOPS split of 120/80 and career slash split of

    Home - .348/.431/.637
    Road -- .278/.370/.495

    Doesn't tell the whole picture.

    For his entire career, his line in Coors Field .381/.462/.710. That's in 2501 PA, no small sample size.

    It's good looking at what the league did there, and removing pitchers, with this sOPS+ process. It certainly shrinks the gap tOPS+ shows but every point difference carries more weight. He's right about where he belongs. We shouldn't be reaching to excuse what it right in front of us.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  4. #84
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    Here's Ryno......126/101

    If we round that NL OPS+ up to 94, his road is 102.5.

    Sandberg(sOPS+).jpg

    Oh here's the full excel file for both league back to 1914
    Attached Files Attached Files
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-05-2014 at 05:30 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  5. #85
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    Cobb 1914-1928

    Home - 164.9
    Away -- 171.1
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  6. #86
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    Interesting. Cobb's 171 road OPS+ is the exact same as his SAeff+

    Code:
                                 (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                    
                    RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
    Code:
    Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
    TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
    Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
    Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
    BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
    Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
    Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
    McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
    MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
    JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
    Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
    MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
    LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
    Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
    Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
    ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
    WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
    Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
    BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
    FThomas          .555         .745         .545            1.36         99      
    Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55            99             1.56
    Kiner            .548         .731         .496            1.47           102
    Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40            95             1.47
    HWilson          .545         .758         .519            1.46            99             1.47
    Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33           100             1.33
    FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50           101             1.48                    
    Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32            99             1.33          
    Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50           100             1.50
    Stargell         .529         .705         .469            1.50
    Schmidt          .527         .678         .470            1.44          102
    Garciaparra      .521         .715         .551            1.29
    Heilmann         .520         .741         .483            1.53            98
    Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
    EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36            96             1.41           
    Medwick          .505         .712         .483            1.47           103             1.43                             
    
    SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53           101             1.51
    Gehrig's road OPS+ almost matches his 191 SAeff+

    Again, if we round his league OPS+ up to 94 (should we do that?), his road OPS+ goes up to 190.5. Round that up as well, and he too, is dead even with his SAeff+.

    Gehrig(sOPS+).jpg
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-19-2014 at 02:58 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Interesting. Cobb's 171 road OPS+ is the exact same as his SAeff+

    Code:
                                 (TB/OUTS)     (TB/PUT OUTS)    (SAeff / Lg SAeff)   (97=.97, 103=1.03)   (RelSAeff / Avg Park Factor)
                    
                    RAW SA       SAeff      Lg SAeff      Rel.SAeff      Avg PF          SAeff+
    Code:
    Ruth             .690         1.006        .484            2.07            98             2.11
    TWilliams        .634         .923         .487            1.89           107             1.76
    Gehrig           .632         .922         .494            1.86            97             1.91
    Foxx             .609         .869         .516            1.68           103             1.63
    BaBonds          .607         .817         .512            1.59            97             1.63
    Greenberg        .605         .851         .518            1.64           104             1.57    
    Pujols           .599         .810         .525            1.54            97             1.58        
    McGwire          .588         .758         .528            1.43            96             1.48
    MRamirez         .585         .799         .548            1.45           101             1.43
    JDiMaggio        .579         .829         .506            1.63            98             1.66
    Hornsby          .577         .852         .494            1.72            99             1.73        
    MCabrera         .568         .781         .532            1.46            99             1.47 
    LWalker          .565         .773         .514            1.50           112             1.33
    Mize             .562         .795         .484            1.64           100             1.64
    Musial           .559         .796         .491            1.62           104             1.55              
    ARodriguez       .558         .749         .549            1.36           101             1.34
    WMays            .557         .753         .485            1.55           100             1.55
    Mantle           .557         .765         .475            1.61            97             1.65              
    BaBonds(98)      .556         .733         .494            1.48            97             1.52       
    Aaron            .555         .750         .482            1.55
    Piazza           .545         .742         .527            1.40
    Griffey Jr       .538         .712         .534            1.33
    FRobinson        .537         .713         .475            1.50   
    Sosa             .534         .691         .521            1.32      
    Ott              .533         .744         .494            1.50
    Cobb             .512         .755         .439            1.71           100             1.71
    EMathews         .509         .671         .491            1.36
    SCrawford        .452         .628         .410            1.53
    RHenderson       .419         .539         .522            1.03
    Gehrig's road OPS+ almost matches his 191 SAeff+

    Gehrig(sOPS+).jpg
    It is a mathematical coincidence, and I know this because OPS+ is actually a sum of two relative rates, while slugging efficiency plus ends up being the product of two rates. But while it is the product of two rates, it does happen to be very very close to relative slugging plus batting average, but basically that is why I told you earlier that SEff+ might correlate to batting value better than OPS+. Maybe you could ask Ubi to run a correlation of TB/out to runs.
    Last edited by brett; 05-06-2014 at 04:59 PM.

  8. #88
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    Yeah figured that, just weird.

    Before I sort that SAeff+ list by SAeff+, is there a final step we could do?

    Whether it involves a players road only OPS+ or something else? I think this sOPS+ process would be much better than tOPS for the 5/3 chart.

    I'd like to keep this slugging oriented and it's already adjusted to park. What about SAeff+ * road SA. Gehrig's 1.91 (191) would be * by .644 to get 1.23 (123?)

    Williams' 1.76 would be * by .615 to get 108.

    Walker's 1.33 would be * by .495 to get 0.658

    Foxx's 1.63 would be * by .561 to get 0.914

    A way to incorporate what they actually did on the road.

    Or do you think this sOPS+ thing shoudl be included, and doesn't compromise the slugging aspect of the stat?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Yeah figured that, just weird.

    Before I sort that SAeff+ list by SAeff+, is there a final step we could do?

    Whether it involves a players road only OPS+ or something else? I think this sOPS+ process would be much better than tOPS for the 5/3 chart.

    I'd like to keep this slugging oriented and it's already adjusted to park. What about SAeff+ * road SA. Gehrig's 1.91 (191) would be * by .644 to get 1.23 (123?)

    Williams' 1.76 would be * by .615 to get 108.

    Walker's 1.33 would be * by .495 to get 0.658

    Foxx's 1.63 would be * by .561 to get 0.914

    A way to incorporate what they actually did on the road.

    Or do you think this sOPS+ thing shoudl be included, and doesn't compromise the slugging aspect of the stat?

    Not sure, but I definitely thing that road s-OPS+ should be included. Personally, I would pick some proportion to use road s-OPS+ and some to use overall. Say 2/3 road s-OPS+ plus 1/3 total OPS+. You could even use 7/8 and 1/8 because 7 out of 8 parks were not your "home" park for most of history. People will be upset that they think that certain players had an ability to adapt to their park though.

  10. #90
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    Mays(sOPS+).jpg
    ------------------------------------------
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-06-2014 at 05:59 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Not sure, but I definitely thing that road s-OPS+ should be included.
    Should be included in the SAeff+ stat, or just replace the tOPS+ in the 5/3?

    Personally, I would pick some proportion to use road s-OPS+ and some to use overall. Say 2/3 road s-OPS+ plus 1/3 total OPS+. You could even use 7/8 and 1/8 because 7 out of 8 parks were not your "home" park for most of history. People will be upset that they think that certain players had an ability to adapt to their park though.
    So a random spin of the wheel and "that" player could "adapt" to any given park? Nah. Some landed in a perfect situation and if they were able to change their approach and have more success, more power to them. But the fact is, they were afforded the option to adapt when others were forced to deal with harsh conditions. No amount of adapting would benefit them.

    If we are attempting to level the playing field for all; across eras, and in various ballparks, how they performed in various settings is far more important than how they performed in a single one. Not directing that at you, just spouting my opinion.

    Anyway, I like the idea of doing the 7/8, 1/8 thing but how do I do that?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  12. #92
    multiply road s-OPS+ by (7/8) and home by (1/8) and add them together.

  13. #93
    A ran Todd Helton and he comes out at 124 road and 142 home. Again my earlier estimates in which I forgot to remove pitchers had him better at home by a little. My math was right but my info was incomplete.

    And Helton with a 124 road OPS+ split is not a hall of famer. And Helton did a pretty good job of drawing more walks on the road. The simple fact is that if you get a good share of your value from home runs, then boosting EVERYONE's home runs will still give you a greater marginal value, because HRs already make up a bigger share of your value. If the slugger goes from 30 to 36 and the average guy goes from 12 to 14, the slugger is getting a bigger relative share of his total value in a boost.

    Tulo is at 120 road 127 home, so he has the closest thing to normal split there.

    And because other guys didn't walk much (castilla, Galarraga, Cargo) I think they would have even worse splits.

    On balance, Colorado helps good power hitters because it increases home runs by about twice as much as it increases hits.

    Oh and I forgot. CO guys get hurt a little because they don't get to hit in CO on the road, but I don't know exactly how to fix it and it is about 1% or 1 point of road s-OPS+

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    multiply road s-OPS+ by (7/8) and home by (1/8) and add them together.
    So 87.5 and 12.5?

    Before I would do that, I'd want to get a yay or nay from you, Ubi, Leewiley, SBC, and whoever else. I don't wanna be some renegade fitting this stat to my opinions. Ultimate legitimacy is the goal.

    Oops. I mean .875 and .125
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 05-08-2014 at 07:18 PM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  15. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    A ran Todd Helton and he comes out at 124 road and 142 home. Again my earlier estimates in which I forgot to remove pitchers had him better at home by a little. My math was right but my info was incomplete.

    And Helton with a 124 road OPS+ split is not a hall of famer. And Helton did a pretty good job of drawing more walks on the road. The simple fact is that if you get a good share of your value from home runs, then boosting EVERYONE's home runs will still give you a greater marginal value, because HRs already make up a bigger share of your value. If the slugger goes from 30 to 36 and the average guy goes from 12 to 14, the slugger is getting a bigger relative share of his total value in a boost.

    Tulo is at 120 road 127 home, so he has the closest thing to normal split there.

    And because other guys didn't walk much (castilla, Galarraga, Cargo) I think they would have even worse splits.

    On balance, Colorado helps good power hitters because it increases home runs by about twice as much as it increases hits.

    Oh and I forgot. CO guys get hurt a little because they don't get to hit in CO on the road, but I don't know exactly how to fix it and it is about 1% or 1 point of road s-OPS+

    CO players get to hit there in a far greater number of Pa or at bats as any hitter does, just about half of career at bats are in that friendly park.
    Why is this made so complicated, how some hitters benefit from playing in great hitters parks.

    This is so simple, drop how those hitters compare to the league, OPS+ and some other stats.
    Just look at it this way, based on hitters individual stats.
    If the hitter played in another park, if half his career at bats were in a less friendly park, would his career numbers be as high.
    Last edited by SHOELESSJOE3; 05-09-2014 at 04:53 AM.

  16. #96
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    Trying to take everything into consideration Joe.

    Brett knows his stuff and has been a great guide along the way.

    Having said that, I don't think we should be considering it a "hinderance" that the CO guys didn't GET TO HIT THERE on the road. They GOT TO HIT THERE in half their games.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Trying to take everything into consideration Joe.

    Brett knows his stuff and has been a great guide along the way.

    Having said that, I don't think we should be considering it a "hinderance" that the CO guys didn't GET TO HIT THERE on the road. They GOT TO HIT THERE in half their games.
    Well aware of that Randy, Brett knows his stuff, that doesn't mean his way is the only way. It's certainly considered, he makes some points, there are other ways to look at it.

    Thats my whole point be it CO or Fenway, half of their career at bats come in their friendly park. Hitters in tougher home parks accumulate half of their career at bats in their home park. Who benefits more here in career stats.
    Let me try it again, you don't think it's a great advantage, a boost to career stats, if "half" your career at bats are in your friendly hitter park.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by SHOELESSJOE3 View Post
    Well aware of that Randy, Brett knows his stuff, that doesn't mean his way is the only way. It's certainly considered, he makes some points, there are other ways to look at it.

    Thats my whole point be it CO or Fenway, half of their career at bats come in their friendly park. Hitters in tougher home parks accumulate half of their career at bats in their home park. Who benefits more here in career stats.
    Let me try it again, you don't think it's a great advantage, a boost to career stats, if "half" your career at bats are in your friendly hitter park.
    It's certainly an advantage, and we're trying to incorporate that.

    My view is similar to yours, I'm trying to get used to the "league avg" way of thinking. That's how the stat world views things. Looking at how the league as a whole performs in a certain park, compared to how an individual performed there. That individual hit there in 81 games. Every other road player didn't, but as a whole, they did. Weird, I know.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  19. #99
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    Anyway, I like the idea of doing the 7/8, 1/8 thing but how do I do that?
    Talk about coincidences.
    I always wanted to do a "park neutral" OPS+ by using the 7/8 road & 1/8 home split and finally did so today. Was going to post in the history thread but also thought about posting it here. When I saw this thread I knew I should post my results here.
    Anyways, here is what I came up with for some great historical hitters. Coincidentally, most have already been referenced to in this thread.

    In chronological order & compared to actual OPS+:

    Code:
     Park neutral OPS+   Actual    Diff.
    
    
    Pujols         164     165     -1
    
    Piazza         150     143     +7
    
    L.Walker       123     141     -18
    
    F. Thomas      147     156     -9
    
    Bonds(to '98)  163     164     -1
    
    Aaron          154     155     -1
    
    Mays           154     156     -2
    
    Mantle         168     172     -4
    
    T. Williams    184     190     -6
    
    DiMaggio       162     155     +7
    
    Foxx           150     163     -13
    
    Gehrig         183     179     +4
    
    Hornsby        173     175     -2
    
    Ruth           203     206     -3

    Formula: Pt.1 (road slugging% x 7) + (home slugging%) / 8, adjusted to league & park using BBref lge averages.
    Pt. 2 (road OBP x 7) + (home OBP) / 8, adjusted to league & park using BBref lge averages.

    Tool: Simple War calculator at http://wahoosonfirst.com/war-calcula...s/version-2-1/
    Last edited by layson27; 05-13-2014 at 07:06 PM.

  20. #100
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    Nice work Layson

    So look at the chart in post 86.

    These park neutral OPS+ numbers are something we can add to SAeff+?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

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