Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 59

Thread: Does Pujols get to 700?

  1. #1

    Does Pujols get to 700?

    Possible, if you think about it. He is @ 592 right now, and is employed for four more seasons, incl. this one. Can he hit 27 hrs/yr, for the next four? Hmmmmm.....
    Last edited by riffwraith; 04-09-2017 at 03:40 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Rockland County, NY
    Posts
    16,514
    Blog Entries
    5
    It's highly unlikely at this point, but it's not impossible.
    My top 10 players:

    1. Babe Ruth
    2. Barry Bonds
    3. Ty Cobb
    4. Ted Williams
    5. Willie Mays
    6. Alex Rodriguez
    7. Hank Aaron
    8. Honus Wagner
    9. Lou Gehrig
    10. Mickey Mantle

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Extremely unlikely. He has averaged 29.2 HRs per season the previous five years. Expecting him to do so again at his age with more and more injured mounting is more than a little presumptuous.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-10-2017 at 06:00 AM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,509
    If it's a number he cares about and is motivated to reach it, I think he can. We underestimate the impact having a goal to shoot for provides.

    It certainly wouldn't hurt to switch teams and find a cozy bandbox for his twighlight years.
    Last edited by Sultan_1895-1948; 04-10-2017 at 06:57 AM.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    If it's a number he cares about and is motivated to reach it, I think he can. We underestimate the impact having a goal to shoot for provides.

    It certainly wouldn't hurt to switch teams and find a cozy bandbox for his twighlight years.
    The biggest obstacle is injuries. He really can't afford any major injury at all. The window is that small. One more 2013, and his chances are basically zero. If he misses a half season one time - he will have to hit in the mid 30's the rest of the year per season. I don;t think he is/will be good enough - even with will power- to make that happen.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  6. #6
    Pujols turned 37 in January.

    Looking back, Reggie Jackson turned '37 in may of '83 and hit 99 in his last 5 seasons while being a -8 WAA and basically zero WAR player. I bring this up because I think he could certainly do it, but would probably have to do it while being a below average or even below war player for quite a stretch.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Pujols turned 37 in January.

    Looking back, Reggie Jackson turned '37 in may of '83 and hit 99 in his last 5 seasons while being a -8 WAA and basically zero WAR player. I bring this up because I think he could certainly do it, but would probably have to do it while being a below average or even below war player for quite a stretch.
    Can you get a list of players with 109+ HRs from age 37 on?
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Can you get a list of players with 109+ HRs from age 37 on?
    Using Fangraphs age parameters, players 37 and older HRs, top 30:

    195 Barry Bonds
    163 Hank Aaron
    152 Darrell Evans
    146 Carlton Fisk
    140 David Ortiz
    127 Ted Williams
    123 Raul Ibanez
    122 Rafael Palmeiro
    114 Carl Yastrzemski
    111 Edgar Martinez
    111 Andres Galarraga
    108 Dave Winfield
    105 Jim Thome
    103 Babe Ruth
    102 Steve Finley
    99 Reggie Jackson
    97 Hank Sauer
    96 Willie Mays
    96 Craig Biggio
    95 Graig Nettles
    94 Stan Musial
    93 Moises Alou
    90 Eddie Murray
    87 Willie Stargell
    86 Willie McCovey
    85 Frank Thomas
    83 Harold Baines
    80 Brian Downing
    78 Cy Williams
    76 Fred McGriff

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Jar of Flies View Post
    Using Fangraphs age parameters, players 37 and older HRs, top 30:

    195 Barry Bonds
    163 Hank Aaron
    152 Darrell Evans
    146 Carlton Fisk
    140 David Ortiz
    127 Ted Williams
    123 Raul Ibanez
    122 Rafael Palmeiro
    114 Carl Yastrzemski
    111 Edgar Martinez
    111 Andres Galarraga
    Yeah - and these guys were all aging much better than Pujols at 37.

    Look, I am not saying it is impossible. I just wouldn't bet money on it.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    25,805
    Blog Entries
    1
    As a big Albert Pujols fan it pains me to see him reduced to a mediocre hitter. His career rate stats continue to fall. Will he end up with a sub .300 career batting average?
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,509
    For me, Albert's legacy is already written. Perhaps because I rank on greatness more-so than career value. What he does from now until the end isn't meaningless, but he can help himself more than he can hurt himself imo. If that makes sense.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    As a big Albert Pujols fan it pains me to see him reduced to a mediocre hitter. His career rate stats continue to fall. Will he end up with a sub .300 career batting average?
    Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,509
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
    Would have to agree. His sustained greatness out of the gate will be the focul point, and when viewing the counting totals, his relatively late starting age will lopk mighy impressive. Hell, we witnessed it all and his stat page still deserves a "holy smokes."
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by riffwraith View Post
    Possible, if you think about it. He is @ 592 right now, and is employed for four more seasons, incl. this one. Can he hit 27 hrs/yr, for the next four? Hmmmmm.....
    Actually, Pujols is signed for 5 seasons, including this year,. His contract expires after the 2021 season. So, 17-18-19-20-21: 5 more seasons. I'm not sure that increases his likelihood of reaching 700. The tale probably will be told in the next 3 seasons.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    25,805
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Maybe - but with a historically good peak AND (likely) 600 HRs, 2000 RBIs, 600 doubles, and 3,000 hits for counting stats, I think history looking ba ck on his career will view him more favorably than what those of us do who are watching his decline.
    Oh sure Pujols will waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot but he had a shot to be the greatest first baseman ever but that got away from him about five years ago. So far he's hitting .207/.233/.345 this season.
    Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 04-10-2017 at 07:25 PM.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Oh sure Pujols will waltz into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot but he had a shot to be the greatest first baseman ever but that got away from him about five years ago. So far he's hitting .207/.233/.345 this season.
    Does Miguel Cabrera even have a hit yet? We all know that Pujols is no longer a great hitter. But his stats through 6 games have pretty much nothing to do with that.

    Not sure why Pujols NEEDS to be the greatest 1B ever. HE doesn't. He is top 3 without any debate and top 15-20 position player ever. That is great - and all I am saying is that given time, people who look back at baseball history will spend a LOT more time thinking about the amazing things he did do than the few "what could have beens." Those things matter less and less the further we are removed from them.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Does Miguel Cabrera even have a hit yet? We all know that Pujols is no longer a great hitter. But his stats through 6 games have pretty much nothing to do with that.

    Not sure why Pujols NEEDS to be the greatest 1B ever. HE doesn't. He is top 3 without any debate and top 15-20 position player ever. That is great - and all I am saying is that given time, people who look back at baseball history will spend a LOT more time thinking about the amazing things he did do than the few "what could have beens." Those things matter less and less the further we are removed from them.
    Im ok with pujols 3rd amongst 1b, but anson, connor, and Brouthers are in the discussion with him (depending on how we interpret 19th century), with mize in the next tier. Pujols has been sniped by injuries and the shift.

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,498
    Quote Originally Posted by Jar of Flies View Post
    Im ok with pujols 3rd amongst 1b, but anson, connor, and Brouthers are in the discussion with him (depending on how we interpret 19th century), with mize in the next tier. Pujols has been sniped by injuries and the shift.
    I have him 2nd, FWIW. I have Connor, Brouthers, and Anson all in my top 10 too. And I am not massive LQ adjuster. But Pujols is way to comparable (if not better) than these three without considering LQ for any of them to be ahead of him.

    The shift is a very undermentioned part of his decline. His hard-hit contact rate has not dropped too much, but his BABIP has plummeted. He has been getting the heavy shift treatment for 3-4 years now. The third wheel of the decline is not taking walks anymore. That is all on him.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,509
    I would put him second among first baseman, and could even make the blasphemous case for him over Gehrig.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  20. #20
    I think if he plays out his contract he gets to 700 but he might get so bad that he gets released like AROD or retires before the contract is over. Basically homers are the only value left in him (over the last 3 years he only has 7 homers less than trout) and once he falls to 20 or so with his low obp and lack of other value he will either lose a lot of playing playing time or even be out of baseball.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •