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Thread: Does Pujols get to 700?

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Well - why couldn't I combine the 700 HRs with other numbers too for perspective?
    The point is that his environment was HR friendly, NOT BA friendly, especially given the factors I mentioned.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    The point is that his environment was HR friendly, NOT BA friendly, especially given the factors I mentioned.
    Was his prime from 2001 - 2011 not BA friendly? I mean - I know it wasn't the 30's or anything, but I don't think BAs during that time were particularly low either. Seems like BAs were relatively failry high until 2010 or so.

    Regardless - IO think you overestimate how much most people care about context and I still think hitting 700 in ANY era is a bigger deal than hitting .300 in ANY era.
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  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Was his prime from 2001 - 2011 not BA friendly? I mean - I know it wasn't the 30's or anything, but I don't think BAs during that time were particularly low either. Seems like BAs were relatively failry high until 2010 or so.

    Regardless - IO think you overestimate how much most people care about context and I still think hitting 700 in ANY era is a bigger deal than hitting .300 in ANY era.
    I started off my post by stating that most people would answer 700. So how am I over estimating how much the average fan cares about context. I'm fully aware they couldn't give two sh*ts.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I started off my post by stating that most people would answer 700. So how am I over estimating how much the average fan cares about context. I'm fully aware they couldn't give two sh*ts.
    Fair enough. So .300 is a bigger deal to you. Got it.
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  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Fair enough. So .300 is a bigger deal to you. Got it.
    .300 along with his other numbers is more impressive to me, than him limping his way to 700 while hitting ,280
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    .300 along with his other numbers is more impressive to me, than him limping his way to 700 while hitting ,280
    I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.

    .290 and 700 seems more eyepopping to me (on the surface) than if he retired next month with 600 and .305. But that is just me.
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  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    That's actually an interesting question. I'm guessing if put to a vote, 700 would win hands down. Afterall, it's a rare and sexy number.

    Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.

    A right handed, average speed guy, facing righties in 75% of his PA at the height of the specialized relief era, with ultra advanced fielding equipment and scouting....yeah that's damn impressive; regardless how much value one puts into the raw (and simpleton) BA stat.
    Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
    Last edited by Honus Wagner Rules; 04-20-2017 at 06:54 PM.
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  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
    The shifts have really killed him. Most of his hard hit balls up the middle are routine groundouts now. And he hasn't adapted at all.

    That and the injuries, of course.
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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.

    .290 and 700 seems more eyepopping to me (on the surface) than if he retired next month with 600 and .305. But that is just me.
    I agree that just from a WOW! factor the 0.290/700 looks more impressive (to me).


    As to the shifting, how much (or little) do you think it would have affected him if they had done it for a full career when he was younger and probably better able to deal with it? Maybe knock 10 points off his career average?
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  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toledo Inquisition View Post
    I agree that just from a WOW! factor the 0.290/700 looks more impressive (to me).


    As to the shifting, how much (or little) do you think it would have affected him if they had done it for a full career when he was younger and probably better able to deal with it? Maybe knock 10 points off his career average?
    Well, he used to hit the other way quite a bit when he was younger. He went away from trying to hit it the other way about the same time the shifts started. It was a double whammy.
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  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    The shifts have really killed him. Most of his hard hit balls up the middle are routine groundouts now. And he hasn't adapted at all.

    That and the injuries, of course.
    The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

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  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
    Pujols' relative BA at this point is still pretty insane. It's about the same as Gehrig's & Sisler's. Pretty awesome for a guy with almost 600 Hr's.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
    All true...
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  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    The shifts are part of the equation. One factor compounds the impact of another factor, which influences yet another. To put it simply, he would be able to adjust and render the shift less effective, if he were facing a Jamie Moyer. But facing guys routinely throwing 95-97 changes everything. You need to gear up for that heat and your margin of error to make adjustments dwindles. This if course, on top of minimal room for outfield hits to drop in and facing the same hand 3/4 of the time.
    You couldn't be more correct. Paul Konerko made a living just crushing fastballs - at age 36 in 2012 he was still dialing up the heat and turning on them. However, he then hurt his hand, and never recovered his ability to hit the fastball; he played the next two years at a greatly reduced level because he couldn't handle the fastball, and had to retire. This cost him a very outside chance of making the HOF. He would have needed very strong age 37-39 seasons to reach 500 homers, which would have been his only way into the HOF. Once he couldn't hit the best fastballs, he was done.
    "Let me tell you the story of the 1999 Cubs. On June 9, they were 32-24, leading the Wild Card race, and looked bound for another playoff appearance. Then the White Sox came to Wrigley for the Crosstown Series and swept them. They finished 67-95."

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  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by layson27 View Post
    Pujols' relative BA at this point is still pretty insane. It's about the same as Gehrig's & Sisler's. Pretty awesome for a guy with almost 600 Hr's.
    Great point. And I would argue that all relative numbers are not created equally. Perhaps that is a discussion for another time.

    I will say this...as I stated before, his legacy is cemented for me, regardless if he limps to 700 or drops to .290. In my opinion he is a top five elite hybrid guy. Not for his era, not for a righty...all time. Can't express enough how lucky we were he came along when he did.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Through 2010 Pujols' career BA was .331 which I thought was insane. I figured with a solid decline he could finish with a .320 career batting. I never imagined that Pujols would have a horrid decline phase. He's down to .308 as of yesterday and dropping. He's current hitting .190 this season. What are the odds he retires in the next year or two?
    No way he retires in a year or two. He has five years left on a back-loaded contract. He isn't going to walk away from all that money, especially since he left St. L. angry that they wouldn't pay him more. Albert has enormous pride, and I think he would feel humiliated if after going to a higher bidder, he ended up getting far less of the money he signed for.

    Also, while I don't know if he's thinking much about 700 HR at this point, he surely wants to reach 3000 hits, and he won't do that till 2018 at the soonest, and if he goes down with any kind of injury during that time, it could be longer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    I would beshocked to see a dip all the way to .280. That would be a monumental drop.
    Yeah, it's virtually impossible, as I see it. Let's say he plays out the five final years of his contract in perfect health, never misses a game except for the occasional rest day. He could average 600 AB per season, or 3000 for the five years. If his BA for that period was .230, he would finish with a career average of just below .290. But expecting him not to miss any time with injuries, aging problems, etc., over the next five years is pretty unrealistic. Also, even if his overall average for that period was worse than .230, in that case he surely would be benched, and wouldn't get all those AB. IOW, to drop below .290, he would have to hit at such a poor level that he wouldn't play enough for the poor hitting to affect his career average enough.

    I'd guess he'll finish his career with a BA in the mid to high .290s. He'll dip below .300 unless he spends about half of his final five years on the DL or the bench.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stolensingle View Post
    No way he retires in a year or two. He has five years left on a back-loaded contract. He isn't going to walk away from all that money, especially since he left St. L. angry that they wouldn't pay him more. Albert has enormous pride, and I think he would feel humiliated if after going to a higher bidder, he ended up getting far less of the money he signed for.
    What if Pujols hits .190-.200 all season? At some point the Angels will try someone else at first base. I doubt they'll play a .200 hitter with a sub .300 OBP for 3-4 seasons.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    What if Pujols hits .190-.200 all season? At some point the Angels will try someone else at first base. I doubt they'll play a .200 hitter with a sub .300 OBP for 3-4 seasons.
    Can't rule that out positively, but his preceding years don't support it. He's had periods when he hit poorly--remember, his first year with the Angels he opened the season by going more than a month without a HR, and was hitting under .200 at one point in early May--but he bounced back. No reason to think he still can't hit .240 - .250 with some power, and with Trout in front of him, he will drive in a lot of runs. He's leading the team in RBI right now.

    But the problem you speak of is likely to arrive before the end of his contract, I agree with that.

  19. #59
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    I agree it's too early to really know but Pujols is 37 now which is not a positive for him. I do hope he gets it going soon.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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