Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 59

Thread: Does Pujols get to 700?

  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Would have to agree. His sustained greatness out of the gate will be the focul point, and when viewing the counting totals, his relatively late starting age will lopk mighy impressive. Hell, we witnessed it all and his stat page still deserves a "holy smokes."
    He was a rookie, and one of the best hitting ones at that, at age 21.

    I think he will end up with about 660 HR. That doesn't seem like much more over five years, but as BA says, more health problems are likely. Also, the way his decline is going, I think it's quite likely that before his contract ends, the Angels will face the tough decision of benching a guy making about $25 million a year. Being able to DH reduces wear and tear on his body, and means there are two options for him in the lineup, but you also expect good hitting from a DH, as he can't produce any value with his glove.
    Last edited by Stolensingle; 04-12-2017 at 09:34 PM.

  2. #22
    If Pujols does reach 700 it will be done limping over the threshold.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,506
    Quote Originally Posted by Stolensingle View Post
    He was a rookie, and one of the best hitting ones at that, at age 21.

    I think he will end up with about 660 HR. That doesn't seem like much more over five years, but as BA says, more health problems are likely. Also, the way his decline is going, I think it's quite likely that before his contract ends, the Angels will face the tough decision of benching a guy making about $25 million a year. Being able to DH reduces wear and tear on his body, and means there are two options for him in the lineup, but you also expect good hitting from a DH, as he can't produce any value with his glove.
    I think he was more like 24 during his rookie season
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I think he was more like 24 during his rookie season
    Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Jan 2000
    Posts
    6,511
    Blog Entries
    1
    It's hard to say, because declines aren't always a steady slope, sometimes it's falling off a cliff and not returning. After 2015, A-rod looked a lock to get 700 homers, as he had 687 and was coming off a good, 33 HR season. Then...he just couldn't hit anymore. let's see if Albert gets to 600 before looking at 700.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    25,824
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
    As far as I am aware no one has ever produced any verifiable evidence that Pujols is older than his official DOB. Some people claim that Pujols is 5 years older than he claims to be. If that is actually true that that would mean that Pujols was 23 years old and still in high school. That seems extremely unlikely.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Which makes what he has done the past 5 years actually...pretty darn impressive. I mean, he has put up some pretty historically good numbers for a 38-42 year old. Kinda changes how we should view him and his decline.
    I don't think anyone believes he's six years older than his listed age. Possibly the three that Sultan implies, which would make his first five years with the Angels 35-39. And what is unusual about his decline is not when it began--late 20s, by his listed age--but how precipitous it was. Even if one believes he's three years older, and produced at his peak into his early 30s, the suddenness of his decline is still surprising.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Stolensingle View Post
    I don't think anyone believes he's six years older than his listed age. Possibly the three that Sultan implies, which would make his first five years with the Angels 35-39. And what is unusual about his decline is not when it began--late 20s, by his listed age--but how precipitous it was. Even if one believes he's three years older, and produced at his peak into his early 30s, the suddenness of his decline is still surprising.
    It was tongue-in-cheek. Wasn't it obvious? There is actually a lot more evidence that he is the age he claims than that he is older. I don't think he is more than a year older than what he suggests.

    But yes, to be technical - if he were 3-4 years older than what is "official", he would have been 35-36 to 39-40 as an Angel. If so - it is true that averaging 3.3 WAR per season from ages 35/36 to 38/39 really isn't unusual for an All-Timer his age in and of itself. It was the fact that he averaged 8.1 from hypothetical ages "30/31-34/35" that would be the amazing part.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-18-2017 at 05:26 PM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    As far as I am aware no one has ever produced any verifiable evidence that Pujols is older than his official DOB. Some people claim that Pujols is 5 years older than he claims to be. If that is actually true that that would mean that Pujols was 23 years old and still in high school. That seems extremely unlikely.
    Exactly my point. I guess it is possible, but not likely he is much different from his listed age at all.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  10. #30
    I believe most of the suspicions regarding Pujols are simply lumping him in with the dozens of other players from Latin America who entered the game around the same time and did lie about their age, but most of those did not go through the U.S. public education system first like Albert did. Pujols was held back a grade when entering school. He was 16 when his family immigrated here, but enrolled in public school as a sophomore because he did not speak English. The other boys his age were a grade ahead of him. In other words, by Pujols' senior year on the team, he was a year older than any other kid on the field. That's a perception - not an integrity - issue. His incredible burst onto the major league scene a few years later was another factor in the "kids this age aren't supposed to be this good" column so that probably added to it as well.

    But most of the whispers are the product of other players' behavior, not anything suspicious on Pujols' part.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
    "There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Nov 2004
    Location
    Northern California
    Posts
    25,824
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Chadwick View Post
    I believe most of the suspicions regarding Pujols are simply lumping him in with the dozens of other players from Latin America who entered the game around the same time and did lie about their age, but most of those did not go through the U.S. public education system first like Albert did. Pujols was held back a grade when entering school. He was 16 when his family immigrated here, but enrolled in public school as a sophomore because he did not speak English. The other boys his age were a grade ahead of him. In other words, by Pujols' senior year on the team, he was a year older than any other kid on the field. That's a perception - not an integrity - issue. His incredible burst onto the major league scene a few years later was another factor in the "kids this age aren't supposed to be this good" column so that probably added to it as well.

    But most of the whispers are the product of other players' behavior, not anything suspicious on Pujols' part.
    Spot on Chadwick. Pujols graduated from high school in December 1998 about a month before his 19th birthday. He played one year of Juco ball at age 19 then was drafted June 1999.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    1,842
    Discussions like this are right in my wheelhouse, because you can play with the numbers, use the Favorite Toy, and make up your own assumptions as you go.

    Pujols has a statistical chance to get to 700 HRs, but the reality of that would lead one to believe that he would have to play for a dead-end team who can afford a one-dimensional player. That team would also have to use him as a DH, see him stay healthy, still give him days off for rest after travelling. That is a lot of what-ifs, and then there is the clubhouse dimension. As it stands, I believe he gets along well with Trout. Further, Trout might be easy to get along with, but that will likely continue for only as long as the Angels are competitive. This comment would apply to the rest of the locker room. From what I remember over time, teams which keep a star/has-been around for the sake of filling seats and for the pursuit of statistics have usually ended up with sinkholes in the locker room chemistry. Mike Trout will probably not like that arrangement, and he would ask to be traded. Trout has four years left on his contract, and that is just inside the window we are discussing, and it would lead to locker room animosity.

    It would boil down to should the Angels keep Pujols for the sake of 700 HRs, or should the Angels try to keep the most exciting (or one of the most exciting) players of modern times.

    It is this fan's hope that Pujols sees this, and then places greater statistical weight on keeping his .300 career BA. While BA isn't a significant stat anymore, with 9196 official ABs as of this post, a 0.300 career average is more impressive than 700 HRs.
    Last edited by abolishthedh; 04-20-2017 at 06:40 AM.
    Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP. Tony Gwynn, #19, RIP

    A fanatic is someone who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -- Winston Churchill.

    Experience is the hardest teacher. She gives the test first and the lesson later. -- Dan Quisenberry.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by abolishthedh View Post
    It is this fan's hope that Pujols sees this, and then places greater statistical weight on keeping his .300 career BA. While BA isn't a significant stat anymore, with 9196 official ABs as of this post, a 0.300 career average is more impressive than 700 HRs.
    In what way? TONS more people have hit .300. Even some players who overall, were not all-that-great players.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Missouri
    Posts
    1,842
    Combining Pujols accomplishments to date, which I trust we agree upon, including a 0.300 BA over a denominator that large adds more to his profile than becoming the fourth guy to make 700.

    Enough guys like Pujols have played over time to draw some comparisons and have some debates, but these players are not recent players who have generally been clear of PED accusations. Good grief, not even Griffey, Jr can be included on that discussion. However, we will be able to include Miggy Cabrera.
    Catfish Hunter, RIP. Mark Fidrych, RIP. Skip Caray, RIP. Tony Gwynn, #19, RIP

    A fanatic is someone who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. -- Winston Churchill.

    Experience is the hardest teacher. She gives the test first and the lesson later. -- Dan Quisenberry.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by abolishthedh View Post
    Combining Pujols accomplishments to date, which I trust we agree upon, including a 0.300 BA over a denominator that large adds more to his profile than becoming the fourth guy to make 700.

    Enough guys like Pujols have played over time to draw some comparisons and have some debates, but these players are not recent players who have generally been clear of PED accusations. Good grief, not even Griffey, Jr can be included on that discussion. However, we will be able to include Miggy Cabrera.
    I doubt most people know if he is currently over .300 or not. I couldn't tell you what his BA is. I am guessing somewhere between .300 and .310. Everybody with even a middling sports interest will know if he hits 700.
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-20-2017 at 07:38 AM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    In what way? TONS more people have hit .300. Even some players who overall, were not all-that-great players.
    Yes. But it also depends on the era in the 1920s the league average sone times was over 290. In that time it was quite easy to hit 300. Now it has become much rarer due to all the strikeouts.

    Still of course 700 or even 600 is a much bigger achievement than 300. But I do think career 300 hitters will get rarer, currently there are 13 active career 300 hitters and at least half of them will probably lose that status until they are retired (just over 300 ND declining)
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,506
    That's actually an interesting question. I'm guessing if put to a vote, 700 would win hands down. Afterall, it's a rare and sexy number.

    Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.

    A right handed, average speed guy, facing righties in 75% of his PA at the height of the specialized relief era, with ultra advanced fielding equipment and scouting....yeah that's damn impressive; regardless how much value one puts into the raw (and simpleton) BA stat.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post

    Looked at in full context though, I would go with .300+ batting average when combined with his other numbers, being more impressive.
    Well - why couldn't I combine the 700 HRs with other numbers too for perspective?
    Last edited by Bothrops Atrox; 04-20-2017 at 10:34 AM.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Quote Originally Posted by dominik View Post
    Yes. But it also depends on the era in the 1920s the league average sone times was over 290. In that time it was quite easy to hit 300. Now it has become much rarer due to all the strikeouts.

    Still of course 700 or even 600 is a much bigger achievement than 300. But I do think career 300 hitters will get rarer, currently there are 13 active career 300 hitters and at least half of them will probably lose that status until they are retired (just over 300 ND declining)
    Just at his decline. His first 9-10 years were firmly in a high-scoring era with lots of .300 averages. The offensive slide didn't really start until he was almost out of St. Louis.

    The bottom line - regardless of what era parameters you want to set (which you could do the same for HRs) hitting 700 HRs is significantly more rare and will be viewed a a much more significant accomplishment.

    Did Albert Belle hit .300? Bagwell? Mark Grace? I seriously have no idea and I am a huge stat fan. Who here knows those questions off the top of their heads? Who in the public knows? Everyone knows who hits 700 HRs.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    Florissant, Mo.
    Posts
    25,527
    Not really a big deal either way since he VERY likely ain't hitting 700 HRs or staying over .300 for his career.
    1885 1886 1926 1931 1934 1942 1944 1946 1964 1967 1982 2006 2011

    1887 1888 1928 1930 1943 1968 1985 1987 2004 2013

    1996 2000 2001 2002 2005 2009 2012 2014 2015


    The Top 100 Pitchers In MLB History
    The Top 100 Position Players In MLB History

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •