Page 18 of 25 FirstFirst ... 81617181920 ... LastLast
Results 341 to 360 of 489

Thread: Ted Williams vs. Left-handed Pitchers

  1. #341
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Ted Williams faced lefties about 18%

    Barry Bonds faced lefties 33% of the time, he hit 29.5% of his homers off of lefties. 34% of Tony Gwynn's PA were against lefties, 30% of his homers were against lefties. 35% of Reggie Jackson's PA were against lefties, 32% of his homers were off of lefties. 30% of George Brett's PA were against lefties, 28% of his homers were against lefties. 31.5% of Griffey's PA were against lefties, 29% of his homers were against lefties. 24% of Willie McCovey's PA were against lefties, 19% of his homers were against lefties. 27% of Willie Stargell's PA were against lefties, 21% of his homers were against lefties.



    Two points:
    One: Ted Williams because of his era and his team simply did not face a lot of lefties. There was a stretch of 50 games one year where the amount of innings pitched by lefties doesn't even amount to a complete game. Ted wasn't dodging lefties, there simply wasn't a lot of lefties in the league when he was playing and teams were reluctant to play lefties against Boston.

    Two: Ted Williams playing time ratio and homer ratio track very well to all other lefties and their playing time ratio and homer ratio. All the lefties I looked at had a lower ratio of homers against lefties then their playing time ratio. Ted's gap is slightly larger then most of them but that could be because my estimate of 18% is too high or it could in fact be in that Ted's gap is slightly larger then others. But Ted's 12.3% homer rate is not as shocking as it first appears when one considers his playing time and the fact that all lefties hit less homers against lefties then playing time dictates.

    So if a player faces lefties say 20% of the time we shouldn't expect him to have 20% of his homers against lefties. Somewhere around 17% is what we should expect. Ted is probably one or two percentage points below what we should expect but again that doesn't mean a whole lot. It is nowhere near as close to "gasp Ted can't hit lefties becuase he only hit 12.3% of his homers against them!".

  2. #342
    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    Norman, OK
    Posts
    2,621
    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    It is in this thread somewhere but yes, in all likelihood Ted did not face an average amount of lefties in his career. I did the math earlier and Boston just didn't face the average amount of lefties during Ted's career.
    As I recall, no one wanted to send a LHP against Boston in Fenway in the late 40's or early 1950's. Too many good RH hitters in the Red Sox lineup.

    As a result, Ted didn't face many LH pitchers in his home games. Good for Ted's BA and Slugging.

    As for his apparent loss of power, I think he lost some of the "pop" in his bat after that elbow injury in the 1950 ASG. He still hit for average, but lost some power.
    Luke

  3. #343
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,490
    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    One: Ted Williams because of his era and his team simply did not face a lot of lefties.
    Now we're onto something. How would his legacy change if he did have to face more of them? He already enjoyed a shortened Fenway. What if he had to play in old Fenway and face more lefties?

    So if a player faces lefties say 20% of the time we shouldn't expect him to have 20% of his homers against lefties. Somewhere around 17% is what we should expect.
    So which is it? 20% or 17%?

    Ted is probably one or two percentage points below what we should expect but again that doesn't mean a whole lot. It is nowhere near as close to "gasp Ted can't hit lefties becuase he only hit 12.3% of his homers against them!".
    Now it's down to 12%, almost half of what you would expect from "a player", not the player wanted to be hailed as the greatest ever.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  4. #344
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Where all students live...nowhere.
    Posts
    8,899
    Which is it...20 or 17?? It's 20% of PA against lefties YIELDING 17% of this mythical player's HRs. Reading comprehension...it's a powerful thing.

    Reread Ubi's post, dude. We know that Ted faced 18% lefties...we would expect him to have hit about 14-51% of his HRs against lefties with a typical platoon split. He was slightly under that at 12.8%...that's hardly the earth-shattering deficit people are making of it.

  5. #345
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Appling View Post
    As for his apparent loss of power, I think he lost some of the "pop" in his bat after that elbow injury in the 1950 ASG. He still hit for average, but lost some power.
    Most definitely. I've seen a lot of quotes from his contemporaries and they would say things like Ted's 1950 swing was the second sweetest swing they ever saw. Many players thought Ted was a slightly different hitter after that injury.


    As for the lefties, it wasn't just because of Fenway either. It was also simply because the AL did not have a lot of lefties in the 40's. I recently did the 1939 season and there were only 19 lefties in the league outside of Boston. 1951 had something like 30 and most of them were starters. In the 50's you do see a significant increase of lefties usage in Ted's game compared to the 40's.

  6. #346
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Now we're onto something. How would his legacy change if he did have to face more of them? He already enjoyed a shortened Fenway. What if he had to play in old Fenway and face more lefties?
    What if he did? Ted Williams isn't a robot programmed to do only one thing. Ted Williams was a hitter. Ted Williams hit lefties very well. Ted Williams would still be Ted Williams if he had to face more lefties or if he had to face bazooka armed martians. Ted Williams weak spot was not lefties, the numbers simply don't bear that out. At agfe 36 he had this line .330/.464/.656. If that was his season line he would be far and away the best hitter in the league that year. At the age of 37 his line was .390/.507/.610, only Mantle would have a better line. At the age of 38 his line was .319/.470/.495, that line would make him the third best hitter in the league and .002 points behind Sievers for second.

    What is next, people saying Ted can't be considered the greatest because they don't think his night line is lower then his day line?

  7. #347
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,490
    Quote Originally Posted by SABR Matt View Post
    Which is it...20 or 17?? It's 20% of PA against lefties YIELDING 17% of this mythical player's HRs. Reading comprehension...it's a powerful thing.
    Snide remark aside, you're correct. I misread what he wrote. My bad.

    We know that Ted faced 18% lefties...we would expect him to have hit about 14-51% of his HRs against lefties with a typical platoon split. He was slightly under that at 12.8%...that's hardly the earth-shattering deficit people are making of it.
    Except the way people view him isn't "typical." It's as the second greatest hitter ever, and for some, the greatest ever. You say right there, that he's even below a "typical" split. I've never said any of this is earth shattering, or even that it's absolutely "damning" as Ubi referenced. I'm saying that it's something to look into....that the guy wanting to be called the greatest hitter ever, was below average hitting homers vs. lefties, and his other numbers vs. lefties aren't impressive. Nevermind that his career home/road splits are pretty big. Just something to look into is all. Never said any of this would surely make me move him from #2, so putting words into people's mouth, can stop.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  8. #348
    Quote Originally Posted by SABR Matt View Post
    Which is it...20 or 17?? It's 20% of PA against lefties YIELDING 17% of this mythical player's HRs. Reading comprehension...it's a powerful thing.
    Reread Ubi's post, dude. We know that Ted faced 18% lefties...we would expect him to have hit about 14-51% of his HRs against lefties with a typical platoon split. He was slightly under that at 12.8%...that's hardly the earth-shattering deficit people are making of it.
    Old MATT is at it again, nothing new here.

  9. #349
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Where all students live...nowhere.
    Posts
    8,899
    *sigh*

    Whatever, Joe.

    And you're a perfect model of humanity, I'm sure.

  10. #350
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    , was below average hitting homers vs. lefties,
    I have to agree with Matt. Words have meanings. There is no evidence presented here that Williams was "below average hitting homers vs. lefties". He may have hit a lower share of his homers against lefties than the average left-handed hitter; that's not at all the same thing as being "below average hitting homers vs. lefties" with no qualifiers.

    The difference between those two phrases is night and day, and as long as the Williams-skeptics crowd keeps making these slips, there's not going to be a lot of productive exchange.

  11. #351
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    I'm saying that it's something to look into....that the guy wanting to be called the greatest hitter ever, was below average hitting homers vs. lefties, and his other numbers vs. lefties aren't impressive.
    Aren't impressive? So far it is the greatest line we have of lefty on lefty. It is at the very least the greatest lefty line on lefty of the last 70 years. How is being number one for 70 years not impressive? Secondly my home run example did not show him to be below average in the homer department. What it showed was that Ted Williams was slightly below in the percentage department of other greats.



    Nevermind that his career home/road splits are pretty big.
    No they are not. His batting average is 10% higher but his OBP and SLG are in the 6% range which is pretty typical of a standard home field advantage.

    Ted Williams home/away numbers compared to career line:

    Code:
    	AVG	OBP	SLG
    Home	5.0%	3.0%	3.1%
    Away	-4.9%	-3.1%	-3.3%
    Ted hit a lot more doubles at home then on the road but he hit the same amount of triples and had more homers on the road.

    If saying words like "below average" and unimpressive are not damning words when talking about the greatest of all time then I don't what words would qualify as damning. Especially when the numbers that are being considered unimpressive is the greatest line of the last 70 years.

  12. #352
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Portland, OR
    Posts
    16,490
    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    Aren't impressive? So far it is the greatest line we have of lefty on lefty. It is at the very least the greatest lefty line on lefty of the last 70 years. How is being number one for 70 years not impressive?
    Greatest in the last 70 years? What about all-time?

    Anyhow, even if they are very good, they are a big dropoff from his production against righties. That has been my point all along. Don't look at his vs. lefties numbers in a vacuum. Look at what he turned into against them.

    Secondly my home run example did not show him to be below average in the homer department. What it showed was that Ted Williams was slightly below in the percentage department of other greats.
    Oh, other greats?

    You stated:

    So if a player faces lefties say 20% of the time we shouldn't expect him to have 20% of his homers against lefties. Somewhere around 17% is what we should expect.
    When you said "a player" you actually meant "other greats?" My bad I suppose. I took that to mean that you would expect an ordinary player to have about 17% of his homers off lefties if he faced them 20% of the time. And Ted's is 12%. That seems low. Is the word "low" now damning too?

    No they are not. His batting average is 10% higher but his OBP and SLG are in the 6% range which is pretty typical of a standard home field advantage.
    His splits aren't eye-poppingly large, but they are significant enough to warrant mention. Are they enough to cause a ranking shift, like, say, a Foxx would....no.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  13. #353
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Greatest in the last 70 years? What about all-time?

    Anyhow, even if they are very good, they are a big dropoff from his production against righties. That has been my point all along. Don't look at his vs. lefties numbers in a vacuum. Look at what he turned into against them.
    We don't know about all time, in terms of the data we do have he is the greatest left handed hitter against lefties so far and we have tremendous amounts of data. So it isn't like saying he was the greatest of week 6 in 2004. We have decades upon decades of data with thousands of players to compare Williams too and so far he comes up at the top of that list.

    I'm not looking at them in a vacuum. I'm looking at them and I see that compared to all other lefties we have data for he was the best at hitting lefties. Almost 60 years worth of data and so far the only guy to come close to his numbers is a guy that needed the juice to do it.

    Right now Ted Williams when he faced lefties had a 160 OPS+, that would be 11th all time (if we want to count Pujols) if that was his career line. So you say look at what he turns into and what he turns into is one of the very very greatest hitters of all time apparently.


    His splits aren't eye-poppingly large, but they are significant enough to warrant mention. Are they enough to cause a ranking shift, like, say, a Foxx would....no.
    Almost all players have a home field split difference.

  14. #354
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    I found 40 more PA and have 2 more seasons to finish off:

    1258 AB
    412 H
    69 Doubles
    6 Triples
    64 Homers
    258 Walks
    10 HBP

    .328/.446/.545

  15. #355
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Where all students live...nowhere.
    Posts
    8,899
    LOL...that BA just keeps on climbing.

  16. #356
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    His OPS+ now is about 164 and would be good for 9th greatest OPS since 1901. His raw OPS would be good for 10th and possibly 9th if Todd Helton falters in his old age. Or even possibly 8th if Manny has a long period of decline
    Last edited by Ubiquitous; 07-16-2008 at 07:24 PM.

  17. #357
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    One more year to go, found about 30 more PA:

    1281 AB
    408 Hits
    71 2B
    7 3B
    64 HR
    260 BB
    11 HBP

    .319/.438/.535


    For some reason in my last run I had more hits, I don't know why, I probably added something up wrong.

  18. #358
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    14,506
    Blog Entries
    2
    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    I've said it before but I am willing to bet that before Ted's 1958 season his line against lefties is somewhere around .325/.450/.550. That isn't bad that is great, especially for a left handed hitter facing left hand pitchers.
    I actually underestimated Ted Williams according to the data so far.

    From 1939 to 1957 Ted's line against lefties is:

    .336/.450/.570

    A 1.020 OPS and that would be a 176 OPS+

    The OPS would put him 6th on the list with ALbert Pujols slightly ahead of him, and his OPS+ would be 4th best. I think until Retrosheet or someone else comes out with complete data this baby has been put to rest. Not only was Ted Williams one of the greatest hitters of all time but his "flaw in his armor" was that against left handers he was merely the 4th best hitter of all time.

  19. #359
    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiquitous View Post
    I think until Retrosheet or someone else comes out with complete data this baby has been put to rest.
    Amen. Until the official and complete record comes out, we should all reserve final judgment. The farther back retrosheet goes, the more context we'll have to compare Ted to:

    A) his league platoon split averages.

    B) the historical averages, across eras.

    B) the other legends Ted is contending with, and their splits.

    All we know of is Bonds' splits, and we have little to no information on Ruth, Gehrig, or Cobb, and are missing Musial's greatest years- his best was certainly behind him by 1953. Ruth and Cobb both have strong claims for greatest hitter ever, and Musial and Gehrig aren't far behind.

  20. #360
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Where all students live...nowhere.
    Posts
    8,899
    Ubi is building the split data for Gehrig, Cobb etc as we speak using the daily summary data.

Page 18 of 25 FirstFirst ... 81617181920 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •