I agree with the sentiments that at best, Morris is a good borderline candidate. I think his record is more a reflection of pitching for some pretty good teams than indicative of his actual skill. A career high ERA+ of 133 is not impressive at all, neither is his 3.80 career ERA. That being said, Morris was a good and consistent pitcher with some very memorable postseason performances, and I think that's why his vote numbers have been going up each year. After this year's election, I was surprised by the amount of attention thrown Morris' way, especially on ESPN. So it does seem that a buzz is growing in favor of Morris' candidacy, but I think he's a long, long way off from making it. If he Morris were to get in before Blyleven, I'd lose faith in all that is good.
Jack Morris
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Another thing is that I'm extremely wary of someone who's entire case is built around (a) having the most wins in a 10-year period of time, (b) pitched his best in a couple of short post-season series, and (c) pitched a lot of innings for many years.
If those supplemented other fine qualities, then he'd be a very good candidate. Since that's pretty much his whole case...."It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
"I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
"You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny
"There's no such thing as a perfect ballot." -- Jay Jaffe
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In 1999 I wrote this Baseball Digest-styled article, making the best case I could for Jack Morris.
You Don't Know Jack: Morris for the Hall of Fame
By Dan Greenia
This year, Jack Morris debuts on the hall of fame ballot. He will not be a first-year electee. People are so imbued with a "you need 300 wins" mentality that Jack may have a hard time getting mentioned on 5% of the ballots casts. That would be a crime because the doors of the Hall would be forever barred to Morris. (Candidates need a minimum of 5% to continue on the ballot.) In this article, you will get to know Jack and see that he is up to Hall standards.
Let's start with arguments against Morris. The first thing you hear is "he only won 254 games". Only 254 wins?! No active pitcher has had 250 wins since Jack retired over five years ago. And this is actually rather silly because 254 happens to be the median number of wins among starting pitchers in the Hall of fame. That's right. Of the 57 starting pitchers now enshrined, #29 is Red Faber with exactly 254 wins.
The fact is, over time a line has been drawn, but not at 300. Only the elite pitchers, the top third in the Hall, have 300 wins. The hall of fame line is at 250 wins. Every pitcher with 250 wins since the modern pitching distance was established in 1893 is in the hall of fame--except for Morris and three others on the ballot with him (Tommy John, Bert Blyleven and Jim Kaat). Everyone else, even those with weak W-L pcts (Rixey .515, Lyons .531), has been put in eventually.
Then you hear, "Wait, those three other guys all have more wins than Morris, so they're better and they go in before Jack." Well, maybe, but that has nothing to do with the issue of whether Morris deserves the hall of fame or not. A player's worth should be judged on its own merits, not set against whoever happens to be on the ballot with him. Unfortunately, many voters fall into this trap. A good example is Luis Tiant's voting support.
Tiant, a 229-game winner, received 132 votes his first year on the ballot. The next year he got only 47. Wow, he must have had a bad year! Actually, it had nothing to do with whether he deserved the Hall or not, it was the competition. In 1988, the voters measured Luis against Jim Bunning and Mickey Lolich; in '89, his support waned as Gaylord Perry and Fergie Jenkins entered the ballot.
So, yeah, John and Blyleven should be elected ahead of Morris, but so what? If they are all qualified for the Hall (which they are) then they should all get a vote. Few voters fill in all ten slots on their ballot anyway, so there is room for writing down three or more pitchers on most ballots.
Another knock against Jack is that he had only three 20-win years. Mainly, this is because it was a much more difficult feat to win 20 in Morris' era than in the previous one. In the fifteen years that Morris was a regular starter (25 GS or 150 IP), 1979 to 1993, there were 62 20-game winners (4 per year). This is less than half as many as the previous fifteen years: from 1964 to 1978, there were 139 20-game winners (9 per year).
Anyway, there are already 14 starters in the Hall with three or fewer 20-win years. Ten of these have fewer career wins than Jack (Bender, Bunning, Drysdale, Ford, Haines, Hoyt, Koufax, Marquard, Pennock and Vance).
Another strike against Morris is he never won a Cy Young award. Again, many hall of fame pitchers never did. Relying partly on retroactive surveys, there are at least 10 pitchers in the Hall who were never their league's top pitcher (Haines, Bender, Pennock, Marichal, Willis, Lyons, Niekro, Sutton, Ryan and Plank); five of these had fewer career wins than Jack.
Also, if you compare his 1986 season to many Cy Young winners of that era you can see that it was a Cy Young-type year.
Code:W-L ERA IP CG SO Morris 1986 21-8 3.27 267 15 223 Perry 1978 21-6 2.73 261 5 154 Flanagan 1979 23-9 3.08 266 16 190 Vuckovich 1982 18-6 3.34 224 9 105 Hoyt 1983 24-10 3.66 261 11 148 Denny 1983 19-6 2.37 243 7 139 Saberhagen 1985 20-6 2.87 236 10 158 Clemens 1987 20-9 2.97 282 18 256 Drabek 1990 22-6 2.76 231 9 131 Glavine 1991 20-11 2.55 247 9 192 Clemens 1991 18-10 2.62 271 13 241 McDowell 1993 22-10 3.37 257 10 158
The most glaring weakness in Jack's credentials is his lifetime ERA. At 3.90 it his higher than any pitcher in the Hall. There are several points to note about this:
· Some of this was the manager. Sparky would leave Jack in to be pummeled even if he didn't have his good stuff that day, just because he was his workhorse and his ace.
· Morris and Blyleven are the first serious Hall candidates to pitch over 2750 innings in a DH league. Without the DH, Jack's ERA would be under 3.50.
· The league's ERA during Jack's career was 4.09. So, although 3.90 isn't great, it's easily better than average.
· When the veterans committee finally stops messing around and elects Wes Ferrell, Morris will not have the highest ERA in the Hall. Ferrell was a six-time 20-game winner who compiled a 4.04 ERA in the heavy-hitting AL of the 30's.
· Jack was hit hard at the end of his career. Before his last two years, his ERA was 3.73. One hall of famer (Red Ruffing 3.80) has a higher ERA than that.
Up to this point, we have seen that Morris' perceived weaknesses do not disqualify him from Hall consideration. What accomplishments does he have that support his election?
You often hear that Jack had the most wins in the 1980's, but it's more than that. Morris is baseball's winningest pitcher over the past quarter-century. From 1975 to 1999, the top winners were: Morris (254), Roger Clemens (247), Dennis Martinez (245), Nolan Ryan (233), Frank Tanana (224), Greg Maddux (221).
The significance of being the top winner of a generation is seen by the fact that the leading winner for every other 25-year period in baseball history is in the Hall. [Later, I also found that Kaat led in wins from 1953-77 with 253. The only other quarter-century with less wins than Morris was 1929-53 when Feller led with 249.] That's not really surprising and it demonstrates how Morris is truly qualified to join the ranks of the immortals.
There are other unique distinctions in Jack's resume. Morris was THE workhorse pitcher of his generation, completing the highest percentage of his career starts. From 1975 to 1999, the leaders in complete game percentage (minimum 300 GS) were: Morris (33.2%), Steve Rogers (32.8%), Blyleven (32.5%), Steve Carlton (29.5%), Ron Guidry (29.4%), Mike Torrez (28.2%).
Jack also has the highest career won-lost percentage among long-career pitchers not in the hall of fame. Among the 85 retired pitchers with 3250 IP or 375 decisions since the modern pitching distance was established in 1893, the leaders in WL Pct who are not in the Hall are: Morris (.577), Tiant (.571), Vida Blue (.565), Dennis Martinez (.559), Billy Pierce (.555), Tommy John (.555).
Seven hall of famers have shorter careers and lower percentages than Jack: Hunter, Haines, Hoyt, Drysdale, Bunning, Waddell and Marquard. Two others (Newhouser and Vance) have much shorter careers and only slightly higher percentages. Three others (Lyons, Faber, and Willis) have much lower percentages and only slightly longer careers.
Lastly, we cannot forget Morris' reputation as perhaps the leading big game pitcher of his generation. His two complete game victories in the 1984 World Series led the Tigers to the championship. A 2-0 mark in the 1991 Series, including a 10-inning shutout in game seven, earned him the Series MVP.
Hopefully, it has been demonstrated that Jack Morris' achievements outweigh his unimpressive ERA. Unfortunately, John and Blyleven are blocking the door to the Hall and as long as they are on the ballot Jack will get lagging support. While there is no chance that Morris will be a first-ballot electee to the Hall (and probably will not be elected by the writers at all), he deserves enough support to draw the attention of the veterans committee twenty or thirty years from now.Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.
Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.
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Originally posted by FreakshowIn 1999 I wrote this Baseball Digest-styled article, making the best case I could for Jack Morris.
You Don't Know Jack: Morris for the Hall of Fame
By Dan Greenia
Not exactly a long amount of time, and Wins are not the end-all . . .
Everyone else, even those with weak W-L pcts (Rixey .515, Lyons .531), has been put in eventually.
. . . nor is W-L pct
Another strike against Morris is he never won a Cy Young award. Again, many hall of fame pitchers never did. Relying partly on retroactive surveys, there are at least 10 pitchers in the Hall who were never their league's top pitcher (Haines, Bender, Pennock, Marichal, Willis, Lyons, Niekro, Sutton, Ryan and Plank);
Pennock probably was the best pitcher in his league in 1925, Willis in 1899 AND 1901, Lyons in 1927, Niekro in 1974 AND 1978, and Ryan in 1977.
The most glaring weakness in Jack's credentials is his lifetime ERA. At 3.90 it his higher than any pitcher in the Hall. There are several points to note about this:
· Some of this was the manager. Sparky would leave Jack in to be pummeled even if he didn't have his good stuff that day, just because he was his workhorse and his ace.
He might have left him in but he only led the league in CG once
· Morris and Blyleven are the first serious Hall candidates to pitch over 2750 innings in a DH league. Without the DH, Jack's ERA would be under 3.50.
How do you figure this?
· The league's ERA during Jack's career was 4.09. So, although 3.90 isn't great, it's easily better than average.
His ERA+ is 105, which I believe would be the worst in the Hall
· When the veterans committee finally stops messing around and elects Wes Ferrell, Morris will not have the highest ERA in the Hall. Ferrell was a six-time 20-game winner who compiled a 4.04 ERA in the heavy-hitting AL of the 30's.
So heavy-hitting that Ferrell's ERA+ is much higher, 117.
· Jack was hit hard at the end of his career. Before his last two years, his ERA was 3.73. One hall of famer (Red Ruffing 3.80) has a higher ERA than that.
So since they made one mistake ...
That's not really surprising and it demonstrates how Morris is truly qualified to join the ranks of the immortals.
There are other unique distinctions in Jack's resume. Morris was THE workhorse pitcher of his generation, completing the highest percentage of his career starts. From 1975 to 1999, the leaders in complete game percentage (minimum 300 GS) were: Morris (33.2%), Steve Rogers (32.8%), Blyleven (32.5%), Steve Carlton (29.5%), Ron Guidry (29.4%), Mike Torrez (28.2%).
If you're using CG to complain that Morris was left in too long, should you be using it as a positive then?
Seven hall of famers have shorter careers and lower percentages than Jack: Hunter, Haines, Hoyt, Drysdale, Bunning, Waddell and Marquard. Two others (Newhouser and Vance) have much shorter careers and only slightly higher percentages. Three others (Lyons, Faber, and Willis) have much lower percentages and only slightly longer careers.
The "mistake" comment aboveMythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge
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Not winning a Cy Young isn't a death sentence concerning Hall of Fame candidacy. But Morris never even deserved one.
Let's look at '86, shall we?
6th in ERA
2nd in wins
5th in W-L %
5th in WHIP
8th in H/9IP
Unranked in BB/9IP
7th in K/9IP
3rd in IP
3rd in K
6th in GS
t-3rd in CG
1st in SO
2nd in HR allowed
t-6th in Wild Pitches
3rd in Batters Faced
6th in ERA+ at 127
Is that a good year? Yes. Would I like Morris in my starting rotation for this year? Unless I already have Maddux, Johnson, Clemens, Santana, and Schilling, then yes. Is this a Cy Young-worthy season for '86? No, Clemens blows him away. Is this a Cy Young-worthy season for any year? No. It's good, but it's not special.
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Remember that the article is a Baseball Digest-styled article. It's simplistic, along the lines of the typical BBWAA voter's mentality. You can't mention ERA+ because they don't know it or understand it. The most important number BY FAR is career victories. You can't say that Niekro was the best pitcher in 1974 AND 1978, and Ryan in 1977 because the Cy Young award voting proves that they were not.
By its nature, the article makes the argument for Morris based on things other than sabermetric analysis. That sabermetrics refutes some of these misses the point.
The impact of the DH on run scoring is nearly one run per game. There were several old studies, none of which I can cite offhand, that reached similar conclusions. If you look at AL vs NL scoring over the last 30 years it suggests an increase around .80 R/G for both teams combined.
Also, in an incomplete search, I found Marquard at ERA+ of 103. Pennock (106) and Grimes (107) are close.Si quaeris peninsulam amoenam, circumspice.
Comprehensive Reform for the Veterans Committee -- Fixing the Hall continued.
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Originally posted by FreakshowRemember that the article is a Baseball Digest-styled article. It's simplistic, along the lines of the typical BBWAA voter's mentality. You can't mention ERA+ because they don't know it or understand it. The most important number BY FAR is career victories. You can't say that Niekro was the best pitcher in 1974 AND 1978, and Ryan in 1977 because the Cy Young award voting proves that they were not.
Also, in an incomplete search, I found Marquard at ERA+ of 103. Pennock (106) and Grimes (107) are close.Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge
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Originally posted by RuthMayBondCy Young voting doesn't "prove" anything.
Just because the writers and pundits say it doesn't make it so. Clemens was not better than Johnson last year, I don't care what their W-L records were or what a bunch of head-in-the-ground writers think.
To say that writers only care about wins is both appaling and truthful. Really, it's appaling because it's truthful.
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Originally posted by FreakshowRemember that the article is a Baseball Digest-styled article. It's simplistic, along the lines of the typical BBWAA voter's mentality. You can't mention ERA+ because they don't know it or understand it.
20th Century Pitchers with more IP (3824) and a better career ERA+ (105) than Morris:
Frank Tanana
Dennis Martinez
Bert Blyleven
Tommy John
Jim Kaat
Jerry Koosman
20th Century Pitchers with more IP but a worse ERA+:
Sam Jones (104 ERA+)
20th Century Pitchers with fewer IP but a better ERA+:
Charlie Hough (3801 IP)
Bobo Newsom (3759 IP)
Paul Derringer (3645 IP)
Bob Friend (3611 IP)
Rick Reuschel (3548 IP)
Luis Tiant (3486 IP)
Wilbur Cooper (3480 IP)
etc..."Hall of Famer Whitey Ford now on the field... pleading with the crowd for, for some kind of sanity!"
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Wow, this was, like, the first thread I started on the this site. I'm so proud it's still going.
I just hope that someday at least one Tiger from the 1984 team will some day be in the hall. It looks like Alan Trammell is our only hope...or Kirk Gibson just because he was so cool.
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--Freakshow, I thought that was a great post. Morris was always one of my favorite pitchers, but I have him just south of the border for the Hall. Your post gives me reason to think maybe he can creep over to the good side of the border. I'll try and add sometime to his case shortly.
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Originally posted by zzazazzWow, this was, like, the first thread I started on the this site. I'm so proud it's still going.
I just hope that someday at least one Tiger from the 1984 team will some day be in the hall. It looks like Alan Trammell is our only hope...or Kirk Gibson just because he was so cool.
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--Okay, I'll tackle the no Cy Young Award arguement. Morris was top ten in the Cy Young balloting 7 times, with 2 3rd places as his best finishes. Both of his third place finishes he could easily have won.
--In 1981, Morris was probably the best starting pitcher in the league, but the award went to reliever Rollie Fingers. Morris was first in wins and 2nd in IP that year, but had two things working against him in the balloting. One, the strike canceled a third of the season and his 14 wins and 198 IP didn't look as impressive as 20+ and around 300 would have. Morris was also not then an established pitcher with a track record to give him a push. The Tigers were also not a very good or popular team at the time.
--In 1983, Morris was 4th in wins, but did get 20. He was first in both IP and K's. He lost out to Lamar Hoyt, basically becasue the writers were excessively impressed with Hoyt's 24 wins and perhaps the White Sox first trip to the postseason in 3 decades. A quick comparison:
................W-L.......IP.....ERA....ERA+....K's
Morris........20-13....294....3.34...117.....232
Hoyt..........24-13....261....3.66...115....148
--Morris beats Hoyt in everything but W-L and Hoyt played for the better team. Obviously this was not a season marked by great pitching and being more deserving than Lamar Hoyt is a weak plank to build your Hall of Fame case on. However, this wasn't Morris best year, just the one where he deserved the Cy. Had the writers done their job in 1983 then "never won the Cy Young" wouldn't be part of the argument against Morris making his way to Cooperstown.
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Originally posted by leecemark--In 1981, Morris was probably the best starting pitcher in the league, but the award went to reliever Rollie Fingers.
--In 1983, Morris was 4th in wins, but did get 20. He was first in both IP and K's. He lost out to Lamar Hoyt, basically becasue the writers were excessively impressed with Hoyt's 24 wins and perhaps the White Sox first trip to the postseason in 3 decades. A quick comparison:
................W-L.......IP.....ERA....ERA+....K's
Morris........20-13....294....3.34...117.....232
Hoyt..........24-13....261....3.66...115....148
--Morris beats Hoyt in everything but W-L and Hoyt played for the better team. Obviously this was not a season marked by great pitching and being more deserving than Lamar Hoyt is a weak plank to build your Hall of Fame case on. However, this wasn't Morris best year, just the one where he deserved the Cy. Had the writers done their job in 1983 then "never won the Cy Young" wouldn't be part of the argument against Morris making his way to Cooperstown.
In 1983 neither Hoyt nor Morris deserved the Cy Young. See Stieb, DaveMythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
Good traders: MadHatter(2), BoofBonser26, StormSurge
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