View Poll Results: Stats/Opinions: What are you inclined to lean towards.

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  • I tend to favor stats over opinions.

    39 47.56%
  • I tend to favor opinions over stats.

    2 2.44%
  • False question: Must be case by case, but tend to favor stats.

    36 43.90%
  • False question: Must be case by case, but tend to favor opinions.

    5 6.10%
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Thread: Sabremetrics/Traditional Opinions

  1. #376
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    My thoughts on moving the discussion lean towards leaving it alone, which doesn't mean I feel stat threads should be located here. My reasoning is that this is a forum with a good deal of motion, while the stat forum is pretty thin, usually. This is somewhat of a conversation between statheads that others can interject into whereas if it was in the stat forum there might be a lot of the HOTG people that would pay it no mind, and thus we get no feedback from anyone that has this section of BBF as their primary source for baseball discussion. It's inevitable that stats are going to come up in any baseball discussion; if the prepoderance of the posts are about stats rather than historical comparisons, well...at some point everyone needs to get a feel for how the stats are treated by other posters. It would be ideal if there were a specified place to do this, but the inherent limitation of creatingan internet community and then dividing it up by subject matter is that seemingly only those either interested or comfortable with a specified subject will bother to participate in a discussion in a forum dedicated to the subject, yet if you'd like to "take the pulse" of the posters you're most familiar with, is it optimal to move the discussion to a place where it will recieve less attention?

  2. #377
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubbieinexile
    earlier in the thread there was a discussion about clutch hitting, well here is a interesting link about clutch hitting.
    Here is a refutation of that study done using the same data.

  3. #378
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    How did you come across that study. It is on tangotiger's site and yet there is no link on it from his site.

  4. #379
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    Google, Google, Google. I've read enough about baseball that I am waitng for the day that I run across something I've never read or seen a reference to; it does occasionally happen.

    If you haven't managed to yet, take a good look for baseball statistical studies. There are math/stat profs suggesting that baseball studies may be a good way of drawing interest in statistical research/modeling. There are already a couple of baseball-specific stat courses at universities; the info is around.

  5. #380
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    I know about googling and courses I was just wondering about Tangotiger's site and what else is on it that is not listed. He has his clutch data clearly listed yet he does not list that article despite the fact that it is on his site.

  6. #381
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    Anamoly. I really can't explain that one; there are, to my knowledge, instances of this in more than one regard (not specific to tangotiger's site). Sometimes you come across archives that for some reason aren't easily discovered.

    I just can't explain it. That's why I Google the hell out of everything; you never know what'll pop up. Sometimes you get broken links, sometimes rare links. The internet seems to contain many hidden gems, beyond the ones that the uninitiated would miss. It's a veritable carnival out there.

    I just don't know. I found it, read it, and said "ok." I later saw a reference to the study, but I forget where.

  7. #382
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    Well...

    That was some interesting reading you guys pointed me to...thanks.

    I am left with the continued gut feeling that clutch hitting is a figment of our imagination at the major league level...created by our tendency to remember only the highs and lows and miss the inbetweens when we look back on a player. Reggie Jackson Homers in some key situations in the world series..he's Mr. October. Derek Jeter makes a couple of outstanding defensive plays in contested world series' and other post-season games and suddenly not only is he a genius fielder but he's a "money" player.

    Things like this happen...I don't believe they are the result of real assets brought by the players.

  8. #383
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    Okay RealNod here is a test for you. I read a baseball book sometime ago and it had a section using the s-curve function to predict the runs created of players as they age. I believe one of the example was Rusty Staub. Do you know which book I am talking about? I know I have the book but can't remember which one it was.

  9. #384
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    never mind I found it.

  10. #385
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubbieinexile
    I wanted to see how many times it has happened where a team has won and not scored more runs then they allowed.

    It has happened 4 times, all in the last 20 years.

    1994 Texas Rangers
    Where do we get that Texas had a winning record?
    Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
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  11. #386
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthMayBond
    Where do we get that Texas had a winning record?
    I believe only three divison champs have ever been outscored:

    1997- Giants (784/793)
    1987- Twins (786/806)
    1984- Royals (673/686)

  12. #387
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    Quote Originally Posted by RuthMayBond
    Where do we get that Texas had a winning record?
    They didn't but they won the division.
    Last edited by cubbieinexile; 06-28-2005 at 11:03 PM.

  13. #388
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules
    I believe only three divison champs have ever been outscored:

    1997- Giants (784/793)
    1987- Twins (786/806)
    1984- Royals (673/686)

    4 of them have done it.

  14. #389
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElHalo View Post
    I've read several books on the history of the Gas House Gang Cardinals,
    Hi Jim. I'm looking for a really killer team photo of the 1934 Gashouse Gang. Think you could ever scan me the one you feel is the best from your books?

    I'd sure appreciate it. You could post it here.

    Bill

  15. #390
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubbieinexile View Post
    4 of them have done it.
    Who was the 4th team? I don't count the 1994 Texas Rangers.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  16. #391
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Who was the 4th team? I don't count the 1994 Texas Rangers.
    2005 Padres have the worst run differential of any division winner. The 1981 Royals also did it, but that was a strike year, so I'm not sure if you'd count it.

  17. #392
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    Quote Originally Posted by AstrosFan View Post
    2005 Padres have the worst run differential of any division winner. The 1981 Royals also did it, but that was a strike year, so I'm not sure if you'd count it.
    My original post (#386) was written on 6/28/2005 so the Padres hadn't finished the season yet. The Padres did end up being the 4th division winner to get outscored. The 1981 Royals didn't "win" the AL Western Division. The Oakland A's did.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  18. #393
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    The Lahman database was listing both the split season division winners, so that where the confusion was.

  19. #394
    Same here. Bumping this thread up so it isn't lost forever.

  20. #395
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    I believe only three divison champs have ever been outscored:

    1997- Giants (784/793)
    1987- Twins (786/806)
    1984- Royals (673/686)
    the 1997 Giants were a breath of fresh air

    they would play a 3 game series and win 2 close games and lose one game by a substantial margin

    it was a fun year

    I remember it well
    1. The more I learn, the more convinced I am that many players are over-rated due to inflated stats from offensive home parks (and eras)
    2. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Player, Collector and Hobbyist since 1969, visit my strat site: http://somgamersparadiseforum.smfforfree4.com/index.php

  21. #396
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    Quote Originally Posted by 9RoyHobbsRF View Post
    the 1997 Giants were a breath of fresh air

    they would play a 3 game series and win 2 close games and lose one game by a substantial margin

    it was a fun year

    I remember it well
    That was a fun team especially after coming off a 94 loss season. The arrivals of Jeff Kent and J.T. Snow were huge. And Shawn Estes won 19 games. They lost two nail-biters in Florida in the NLDS in the first two games. There was many complaints about the Giants, a division winner, having to play the first two games of the NLDS on the road.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  22. #397
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    I always liked this Bill James essay. Enjoy.


    Bill James Stats 1.JPG


    Bill James Stats 2.JPG


    Bill James Stats 3.JPG
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  23. #398
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    This thread is like the movie Flatliners. Been dead and revived so many times LOL

    That's an interesting piece and he makes a lot of good points.

    Love the pic too. Those kids on the wagon aren't worried about getting skulled by a pulled liner? Or how about the kid just relaxing directly in front of the batter
    "Everyone left here, but I remain at my post, documenting my sports writers and photos. I don't do Ty Cobb anymore. I did for him everything I could do. Work will live on. Personalities will fade.

    Fever members come and go. Not relevant. Your documentations will live FOREVER, my brother. That outweighs all the Fever jack-asses. Ignore what you must, document all you can."
    - Bill Burgess

  24. #399
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    This thread is like the movie Flatliners. Been dead and revived so many times LOL

    That's an interesting piece and he makes a lot of good points.
    I especially like how James says that baseball stats take on the power of language for example how 40 home runs means "power" or a .300 batting means a "good hitter", etc.

    Love the pic too. Those kids on the wagon aren't worried about getting skulled by a pulled liner? Or how about the kid just relaxing directly in front of the batter
    I wonder if the photo was staged? It does seem strange that there is a kid sitting right in front on the batter.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  25. #400
    Quote Originally Posted by cubbieinexile View Post
    Okay RealNod here is a test for you. I read a baseball book sometime ago and it had a section using the s-curve function to predict the runs created of players as they age. I believe one of the example was Rusty Staub. Do you know which book I am talking about? I know I have the book but can't remember which one it was.
    *Bump/homage to users*

    1. "therealnod"- epic statistician

    2. "Cubbieinexile" ("Ubiquitous'" psuedonym/alternate name for several of my junior years here)....

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