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Thread: Albright's musings

  1. #426
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    There's no doubt Joe McCarthy had a lot of talent to work with in his three stops, but:

    1) He had success in all three spots, winning 90 or more games twice in each Boston and Chicago, and only failing to win 90 or more four times in his 15 full seasons with the Yankees, and two of the "failures" were 88 and 89 wins;

    2) His teams won seven World Series titles with the Yankees, four in a row and six in eight years, one of the misses in the 6 for 8 including a pennant and the other "merely" winning 88 games;

    3) His teams won 100 or more games six times;

    4) He was able to keep his teams on top, one of the hardest feats in the game, even with great talent;

    5) He was the only manager to get Hack Wilson to perform;

    6) Look at how he does against managers all-time:
    .....a) 8th in wins;
    .....b) top winning percentage;
    .....c) second in best total wins minus losses;
    .....d) fifth in wins * win percentage;
    .....e) second in Fibonacci points for managers (c plus d).
    Last edited by jalbright; 07-10-2009 at 04:51 PM.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  2. #427
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    Buck Leonard

    Years played: 1933-1950
    Main position: 1B

    All Star selections: in Negro League All Star game in 11 seasons

    MVPs: 3 ESPN, 4 James and 1 Holway

    League champions on: 9 American summers, 1 Cuban Winter, 1 California Winter

    League leading performances: In American summers, was in top five in average five times (led once), in the top three in homers eight times (led twice). In Puerto Rico, led in homers once and was second one time in runs.

    Expert rankings: #1 first baseman in CPDD historian’s poll, #1 first baseman in Courier poll, first in SABR poll, #1 first baseman in Museum poll, James’ #1 Negro League 1B and 65th overall, Clark’s third team 1B and on Team #2 in All World selections.


    He certainly wasn’t helped at least in his power numbers in Griffith Stadium in American summer play, but even so, his data in Shades of Glory are impressive. He averaged .320 for his American summer career with a .421 OBP and .527 slugging behind 22.4 homers per 550 AB. I rank him just behind McCovey among first basemen.

    I think his best comp is a relatively recent 1B, Will Clark. Leonard probably played in a higher offensive era, but he's a little better and played a little longer. That's based on my understanding that the projection tries to account for the fact Leonard played a lot in Griffith Stadium, a notorious pitcher's park. Staying with that assumption, if we change 4 of Clark's homers per 162 games to singles and add 38 walks in those same 162 games, we're really closing in on Leonard:

    Code:
    hitter......	hand	pos	PA	avg	obp	slg 	years
    Leonard...	L	1B	8666	308	417	476	1934-53
    Clark.......	L	1B	8283	303	384	497	1986-2000
    adjusted... 	L	1B	8746	303	417	476	-----------
    All those extra walks mean Leonard has significantly more value than Clark, as does the extra 380+ PA
    Last edited by jalbright; 07-18-2009 at 01:36 PM.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  3. #428
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    Tetsuharu Kawakami as a player:

    He was nicknamed "The God of Batting" due to his regularly high averages. He had some power, but especially after a 1950 talk with Ted Williams, he focused on hitting line drives for average.. He hit over .300 in 13 seasons, winning 5 batting titles to go with 3 RBI titles and 2 HR crowns. Before his 1950 talk with Ted Williams,he hit 25, 24, and 29 HR. but had only hit over .313 once. After that talk, he never again hit more than 15 HR and usually was in single digits in that category. He did have good doubles power, though. Over the six years after that talk, his lowest average was .320. This change came after he turned 30, which indicates to me he was a) intelligent, and b) he put in the large amount of hard work necessary to make such a change. Three of his batting titles came after that influential talk with Williams.

    I rank him as the third best 1B in Japanese professional baseball history, the best position player in pre-1950 NPB baseball, and the best CL 1B of the 1950's and second best overall in that decade. He did miss three years to wartime service.

    His managing career is even more impressive than his playing career, with 11 pennants and Japan Series titles in only 14 seasons, none of which were under .500! Combine that with his playing career, and he deserves a spot in our Contributors section of the Best of Baseball project to go with his spot in the BBF HOF.

    If we look at what I get for his major league equivalent, hereís what I get:

    Tetsuharu Kawakami Position: First Base
    Code:
    G	  AB	  R	   H	  2B	  3B	   HR	   RBI	   SB	   AVG	   OBP	   SLG	  HOF Stds
    2305	8863	1151	2641	..440	..224	..128	..1476	..220	...298	...374	...441	..46
    The conversions for pre-1945 play may not be great, but I doubt they're hurting his case a lot. Initially, I was skeptical that he could have won and held a first base job in his own time. However, his list of comparables not only convinces me I was wrong on this point, but it is quite interesting and provides an interesting picture of him as a player. His list of ten most comparable players has five Hall of Famers: Jake Beckley, Zack Wheat, Roger Connor, Fred Clarke, and Enos Slaughter. It also has one man who finished in the top ten in BBWAA HOF voting in Keith Hernandez. It also has two players who are rather contemporary first basemen of Kawakami in Mickey Vernon and Joe Kuhel. The list is rounded out with Joe Judge and Jimmy Ryan.
    Vernon and Kuhel show Kawakami could have gotten and kept a major league first base job even in his own time. In fact, Kawakami's projection is a little better than the careers of either man. This means he could match his projection, but since in his time the big name first basemen were Gehrig, Foxx and Greenberg, he would have been seen as a second tier first baseman like Vernon or Kuhel.

    Keith Hernandez gives us a glimpse of how he would have been viewed in the 1970's or 1980's. However, his OPS is just a tad below Hernandez' mark, and Hernandez is on the outside of the Hall looking in.

    Beckley and Connor show that he could have been a star in baseball before 1920. My view is that while he's close to HOF quality as a player, I think he's just short of the level required.
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  4. #429
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    A thread posted this query:

    Ignoring the race factor...is Jackie Robinson still a HOFer? ... If a white player in his days had same number and games played as Jackie is he a HOFer?
    I replied:

    Race explains why Jackie had such a late start in the majors, defines the challenge he faced, and was credited (to all appearances, accurately) as a key motivational factor in his play. How does one ignore all that? Moreover, the question wants to deny him several years' worth of play he should have had, but for his race by focusing solely on his major league play. How does one ignore what in his case is the elephant in the room?

    Even so, for a guy whose main position is 2B and was limited to 11 years mostly by factors beyond his control, he racked up a heck of a lot of accomplishments:

    won a Rookie of the Year award
    won an MVP award
    was 115th in MVP shares
    was named to six all-star teams
    won a batting title and was in the top ten in average 6 times
    was in the top three in OBP five times
    was in the top ten in runs scored 7 times
    was in the top three in slugging percentage three times
    was 2d in RBI once
    was in the top 10 in total bases four times
    was in the top 10 in OPS+ five times
    was in the top 10 in runs created five times
    was 157th all time in gray ink
    his best five consecutive seasons is 6th best among 2B listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract and
    his best three seasons are 6th best among 2B listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract.

    There aren't many second basemen in the history of the game that can match that list of accomplishments--certainly not 15 or more. Looked at that way, I still think he merited inclusion into the HOF.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  5. #430
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    In response to the query on Iso Abe, this comes from the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame (English version, with some editing by me)

    Father of university baseball (Waseda U.)

    Inducted 1959
    Category Elected by the Special Committee
    From Fukuoka
    Born February 4,1865
    Died February 10,1949
    Alma Mater Doshisha University


    This professor formed Waseda U. Nine in 1901. Their American tour in 1905 helped develop baseball in Japan. Organized the Tokyo Big Six League (TBSL), becoming its first president in 1925. Known as father of university baseball in Japan.
    From Fitts and Engels' Japanese Baseball Superstars, p. 113:

    Abe established Waseda University's baseball's team and is known [ed. : in Japan] as "The Father of University Baseball". .... While in the United States, he fell in love with baseball. ... Abe started teaching at Waseda University. In 1901, he established a baseball team and became its first manager. In 1905, he took his team on a tour of the United States to teach them the finer points of the game. It would be the first of many Japanese university teams to travel to America. Abe also helped promote inter-collegiate baseball [ed. : in Japan] and later became the Director of the Tokyo Big Six University League and the Chairman of the Association of University Baseball.
    I will add that college and high school baseball were quite popular in Japan prior to the establishment of NPB in 1936 and those two sources provided much of the talent for that league.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  6. #431
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    I think the best answer to evaluating Hoyt Wilhelm is with career win shares, as his usage really screws up the best season comparisons and the inks.

    Wilhelm had 256 career win shares. Here's some of his contemporaries:

    Marichal 263
    Ford 261
    Drysdale 258
    Bunning 257
    Lemon 232
    Hunter 206
    Koufax 194

    There are reasons to rank at least several of these ahead of Wilhelm, but I think he at least belongs with this group, especially when we consider that he was:
    an all-star in 8 seasons;
    won 2 ERA titles;
    was once 6th in wins;
    was once in the top 10 in IP;
    was once 5th in strikeouts; and
    was 14 times in the top 10 in saves (8 of them in the top four).

    It is important to note that in 1959 he was a starter, and had all those leading categories except the saves and the other ERA title. He wasn't a failed starter at all, unlike so many other "firemen" of the time.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  7. #432
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    Sam Thompson

    If you don't take into account the shorter seasons of his time, he doesn't do too well with win shares at 236 for his career, 79 for his best three seasons, and 114 for his best five consecutive seasons. These would all be well short of where a HOF LF should be. However, he rarely played in a season which was much over 130 games, so he's losing at least 20% playing time in each of those measures. Add another 20% to each of those measures (which is actually conservative, given that many of his seasons were 120 games), and he gets to the edge of HOF territory, 20-25th place among LF.

    Then, consider his win shares per 162 games, which is 27.17, which by my count is 11th in the LF listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract. He's 29th among all hitters in black ink, 39th in gray ink, 99th in HOF standards, and his career 146 OPS+ is 46th all-time among qualifying players. Only the HOF standards score is even close to the borderline, and once again, we're talking about a measure that is definitely influenced by the season length.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  8. #433
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    Yutaka Fukumoto Position: Center Field

    games at bats runs hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG HOF Stds
    2931 10667 1739 2860 511 246 147 928 1065 .268 .351 .403 54


    He might well have had less stolen bases in the majors, but he is so far over the level at which his steals stop adding to his HOF standards score that he would surely have had enough to reach this score. He won a bushelful of Gold Gloves, so he's another guy who I think there is more than enough evidence he would have been at least an adequate center fielder at the major league level. He was a champion as well

    A review of his list of top comparables isnít as favorable as I once thought. The list has six current HOFers in Lou Brock, Max Carey, Brooks Robinson, Harry Hooper, Rickey Henderson and Sam Crawford. Tim Raines and Vada Pinson finished in the top ten in BBWAA voting for Cooperstown. The remaining two names on the list are Willie Davis and Bill Buckner. On one hand, the guys who aren't in the Hall all have less than Fukumoto's projected career hit total of 2860. Further, at least two of them (Raines and Buckner) were not as valuable defensively as Fukumoto would have been in the majors. Raines, Henderson and Crawford best him at the plate, but otherwise he holds his own even in this distinguished company. He fits nicely between his best two comparables, HOFers Brock and Careyóand thatís a problem for me, as Iíve come to supporting neither of those two--and I also don't like the cases of Hooper or Vinson. I also have some questions about his ability to hold a job, as he projects to have some .250 BA (and under IIRC) years. I've got to pass on him.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
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  9. #434
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    Hiromitsu Kadota Position: Right Field-Designated Hitter

    games at bats runs hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG HOF Stds
    3063 10650 1312 2842 429 41 394 1669 51 .267 .351 .426 46

    The HOF standards measure says he has a weak case, and if he weren't projected to get as many at bats and hits, I'd agree. Those two stats put me in the undecided camp. After the Achilles heel injury, he was a DH all the way, and we'll have to see if there's any bias against such players. I'm not sure if his defense before the injury would be enough to get and keep a right field spot in the majors, either.

    His list of most comparable players gives me pause. He has five Hall of Famers in Tony Perez, Al Kaline, Dave Winfield, Brooks Robinson, and Billy Williams. Two more on his list made the top ten in BBWAA HOF voting: Dwight Evans and Darrell Evans. The remaining three names on the list are Harold Baines, Rusty Staub and Chili Davis. Unfortunately for Kadota, the four most similar are the four who had the lowest defensive value (Baines, Staub, Perez and Davis). Further, everybody on the list but Brooks Robinson has a higher OPS than Kadota's projection. I think he is most similar to Baines, Staub and Davis, and therefore he doesn't belong.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  10. #435
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    Sachio Kinugasa Position: First Base-Third Base

    games at bats runs hits 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG HOF Stds
    2994 10854 1235 2726 396 47 341 1303 266 .251 .314 .391 39

    His case is actually quite weak if we base it solely on the projection. The projection gives him longevity he might not have had, especially if his defense at third base wasn't up to major league standards. On the other hand, if he really could have played a decent third base, that longevity might hold up. Also, I think it is clear that had he played in the majors, he would have sat some during his injuries, especially some of the broken bones, most notably the broken shoulder. As a result, he wouldn't have his main claim to fame, the consecutive games streak, but his other stats might look better because he'd be dumping relatively unproductive playing time. The problem is I suspect his case would stay rather weak until or unless his average rose over .260 at a bare minimum. That's a lot of ground to make up, and it might not work out. Mark this case as one for further study.

    His case for Cooperstown has two problems. One was the question of the quality of his defense at third, and the other was his projected career average of .251. Guys don't get into Cooperstown with career averages below .260 unless they fall into one of four categories: 1) big time home run hitters like Killebrew, 2) great catchers, 3) slick fielding middle infielders like Rabbit Maranville, or 4) outright mistaken selections. Kinugasa won't qualify in the first three categories, and I want no part of putting him in by using players in the fourth category.

    Maybe somebody can show that if he sat out when he was hurt, his career projected average would get over .260, but unless or until someone can persuasively make that case, I'd leave him out. He has two Hall of Famers in his ten most comparable players, Brooks Robinson and Tony Perez. However, both of them outhit Kinugasa's projection and I am convinced Kinugasa's glove wasn't close to the class of Brooks Robinson's. The list also has three men who reached the top ten in BBWAA HOF voting in Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans and Vada Pinson. Once again, the OPS for all three of them are superior to Kinugasa's projection, and Nettles' glovework is almost certainly superior. The rest of Kinugasa's list are Rusty Staub, Gary Gaetti, Chili Davis, Don Baylor and Buddy Bell.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  11. #436
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    Hideo Fujimoto

    G W L SV IP hits HR BB K runs ER ERA HOF Stds
    358 185 94 0 2604.1 2316 144 606 985 917 756 2.61 47

    Another guy who was more favorably viewed before I revised the WWII and before stat conversions. Even so, his case is at least worthy of going the next step, to the ten most similar to the projection. This time, when I have done the ten most similar list, I've omitted any adjustment based on the era in which the Japanese pitcher performed. My reasoning is that there's elements of 19th century and deadball major league baseball in Japanese professional ball from 1936 to 1944. Granted, I attempted to convert the data to the contemporary time of the Japanese pitchers in question, but in the final analysis, I felt the situation was muddied enough that I was no longer certain making that era adjustment made the comparisons more rather than less accurate. When we apply these rules to Fujimoto, none of his ten most similar (Sam Leever, Larry Corcoran, Deacon Phillippe, Bob Caruthers, Urban Shocker, Ed Reulbach, Jesse Tannehill, Jeff Pfeffer, Ron Guidry and Art Nehf) are in Cooperstown. Some have arguments that can be made for them, and perhaps one or two will eventually receive that honor. Overall, though, I think these comparisons clearly point in the direction that Fujimoto doesn't have the requisite record, and I'm comfortable with that conclusion.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  12. #437
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    Minoru Murayama

    G W L IP hits HR BB K runs ER ERA HOF Stds
    461 222 109 3046.2 2444 258 686 2008 991 802 2.37 62

    He's the first of the crop of pitchers added to this article by the revision of the pitching projection method. He projects quite well, but since he was a career Tiger and that franchise has had a quite pitcher-friendly park, I'd want to investigate that issue before saying he belongs in Cooperstown.

    Four of his ten most similar pitchers are in Cooperstown: Whitey Ford, Juan Marichal, Chief Bender and Three Finger Brown. Also, Lon Warneke is on the list and made the top ten in BBWAA voting. The remaining names on the list are Dwight Gooden, Jimmy Key, Ron Guidry, Dave McNally and Bob Welch. I think he probably had a significant assist from pitching in cavernous (by NPB standards) Koshien Stadium all his career. The question is whether he gained so much that it means he isn't deserving of a plaque in Cooperstown. I can't be sure right now, so I'll withhold judgment in this case. If I didn't have that concern, I'd say his record is more like the HOFers on his list than those who aren't in--but I do.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  13. #438
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    Jiro Noguchi (He did well on one of my earlier projections).

    G W L IP hits HR BB K runs ER ERA HOF Stds
    483 207 151 3317.2 3417 322 514 1084 1437 1231 3.34 37

    This is the most recent formula for prewar guys, and it leaves him short.
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  14. #439
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    Shigeru Sugishita

    G W Lt SV IP hits HR BB K runs ER ERA HOF Stds
    487 203 108 2839.2 2438 190 849 1557 1050 874 2.77 49

    The revised pitching projection moves him up almost to the level of an average Hall of Fame pitcher instead of midway between an "average" Hall of Fame pitcher and a weak choice for the Hall of Fame. He carried a team to a championship, so if the comparables to the projection support the Hall of Fame standards take on him, I'd say he's a worthy candidate.

    Five of his best comparables are in the Hall of Fame: Bob Lemon, Lefty Gomez, Whitey Ford, Dazzy Vance and Sandy Koufax. Lon Warneke finished in the top ten in BBWAA voting for Cooperstown. The rest of the list is Dave McNally, Dwight Gooden, Mike Cuellar and Jimmy Key. His Fibonacci score (indicative of excellence in the won-lost mark) and ERA are both better than all of the guys not in the Hall. His list of comparables only has two guys who had 200 or more wins like the projection, Ford and Lemon, and both are in the Hall. Similarly, there are only two guys on the list who had career ERAs under 3.00 like the projection, Koufax and Ford, and again, both are enshrined. I'd say he presents a strong case for Cooperstown.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  15. #440
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    Tetsuya Yoneda

    G W L SV IP hits HR BB K runs ER ERA HOF Stds
    836 298 262 5071.2 4855 446 1570 2976 2257 1943 3.45 49

    The revised pitching projection helps his case a lot. Now he has almost 300 wins to go along with great durability, and his ERA isn't spectacular for a Hall of Famer, but it's no longer weak in such distinguished company.

    Seven of his ten best comps are in the Hall: Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Don Sutton, Early Wynn, Robin Roberts, Fergie Jenkins and Steve Carlton. The remaining three all managed to get into the top ten in BBWAA voting for the Hall: Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat and Tommy John. I think the projection is unrealistic in projecting Yoneda at 298 wins, as a player that close to such a significant milestone will usually hang on to best the mark, like Wynn did. I think he's a legitimate HOF-caliber pitcher in any event.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
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  16. #441
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    Minnie Minoso

    Negro Leagues Book:

    Code:
    Year/Lg....	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	avg	slg
    1946 Neg	33	123	32	7	3	3	0.260	0.439
    1947 Neg	55	228	67	14	0	3	0.294	0.395
    1948 cent	11	40	21	7	1	1	0.525	0.825
    1948 Neg	--	--	--	--	--	--	---	---
    1949 AL...	9	16	3	0	0	1	0.188	0.375
    1949 PCL	137	532	158	19	7	22	0.297	0.483
    1950 PCL	169	599	203	40	10	20	0.339	0.539
    1951 AL...	146	530	173	34	14	10	0.326	0.500
    Now, the 1946 and 1947 Negro League data is consistent with fairly full seasons, and 1947 and 1948 were all-star years for Minoso in the Negro Leagues. He was a 3B in the Negro Leagues, and I think that comes into why he went to the Indians and how his career moved there. The PCL often had 180+ game seasons at this time, and was a quite strong league. Frankly, in a fully integrated baseball world, I think Minoso would have been fairly likely to get a shot at a full time major league job by mid-1948 or the start of 1949 instead of 1951. The Indian situation was such that Keltner was their 3B in 1948 at age 31 and in his only good postwar year when Minoso was signed. The Tribe won the pennant that year, but whether due to age and/or injury, Keltner declined in 1949. He only played 80 games that year, and not well. I can only think that with the above data that the Indians didn't like Minoso's glove at third, and they had a .300 hitting leftfielder, Minoso's main major league position, in Dale Mitchell. Mitchell played at about that level until 1953 for the Tribe. So they parked Minoso in the PCL. Al Rosen took the 3B job in 1950 and performed well, and Minoso was traded in 1951 to the White Sox.

    A little more information is available in the SABR Bioproject bio of Minoso: http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/796bd066
    Last edited by jalbright; 11-10-2012 at 09:34 AM.
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  17. #442
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    My thoughts on some nominees for the HOF both as players and then again as contributors, though excluding their play from consideration this time:

    First, the guys I think I will vote for in both rounds, if given the chance:

    Anson, Cap Certainly good enough for his play, and a manager with his level of success (5 pennants in the pre WS days, a .578 career winning percentage, and 1282 wins) would get in as well IMHO. However, heís one of those player managers, which may complicate his case.

    Chance, Frank A better player than heís given credit for, but a somewhat short career. A manager with his record would get in as well (4 pennants, two world series titles, .593 career winning percentage, 946 wins) but there is the complicating issue of being a player/manager.

    Clarke, Fred Definitely good enough as a player, and managers with his level of success, even if blessed with a Honus Wagner, make the Hall (4 pennants, 1 WS title, 1600+ wins, .576 winning percentage). Does have to deal with the player/manager complication.

    Foster, Rube A giant in the Negro Leagues, and unquestionably belongs in for his numerous nonplaying contributions to blackball. He was a brilliant and successful manager, part owner, commissioner in blackball, and achieved great things in all those roles. So, how good was he as a player? Heís in the BBTF Hall of Merit, and discussed in this thread: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...on/rube_foster

    Griffith, Clark Clark Griffith definitely belongs as a contributor, so the issue is how good a player he was. From 1894 to 1901, only Cy Young and Kid Nichols had more 5 or more WAR seasons than Griffithís five. During those years, Griffith was in the top 9 in pitching WAR seven of eight times. Thatís enough of a player for me.

    Jennings, Hughie A shortish playing career, probably because he got hit by a pitch over 200 times in his 5 season peak from 1894 to 1898. He was the star shortstop for what Iíd say is the single most dominant team of that time. He also walked a lot, so only once in that 5 year stretch was his OBP below .444 (.411, 1894). The last four years of that stretch, heís the league leader in WAR every season. That, my friends, is the dominance of a HOFer. As a manager, he won three consecutive pennants, 1184 wins and a .543 winning percentage.

    McGraw, John No doubt he belongs as a manager, so the question is how he was as a player. He walked a ton and also took a lot of HBP (134) to have a career .410 OBP. From 1893 to 1901, he only once had a season with an OBP under .450 in 1896, when he played only 23 games. During that 1893 to 1901 span, he was the best in WAR among position players once, second once, third once, seventh once, ninth twice and tenth once. I personally think his peak is enough to call him a HOF caliber player.

    Mendez, Jose A heck of a blackball pitcher, and one I support for the Hall. Heís in the BBTF Hall of Merit and most of our shadow Hall projects here at Fever. He won three straight Negro League pennants with the KC Monarchs, one of them resulting in a Negro League World Series win.

    Spalding, Al A tremendous early promoter of the game and sporting goods magnate who deserves induction for his work as a contributor. He pitched 2600+ innings from 1872 to 1876, racking up 54.9 WAR in that time. The closest to him in those years is Bobby Mathews, a full 8 WAR behind. Candy Cummings is 10 WAR behind, and fourth place is Dick McBride 23.5 WAR behind. Again, a dominating performance.

    Torre, Joe A close call solely as a player, but it would be unprecedented to keep a manager with his amount of success out of the Hall, even if he never played in the majors.

    Ward, John Montgomery As a player, heís not good enough if you separate his pitching from his shortstop play and consider each individuallyóbut IMHO the combination of playing contributions is HOF worthy. He started out as pitcher whose second and third seasons mark him as one of the best at the time. He had four other seasons with significant pitching success, but in less innings than the stars of the time were racking up. After that was over, he became a star shortstop. Once you get to the contributor level, the man was such a force in the early days of the game that leaving him out would be a travesty.

    Now, the guys I'll vote for as players, but not as contributors:

    Boudreau, Lou Again, definitely enough of a player to get to the next round. I canít see his one WS title being enough on the contributor side, especially with an overall sub .500 record. Thatís before you factor in most of his managing was as a player/manager.

    Cochrane, Mickey Unquestionable good enough as a player, but borderline at best as a manager (2 pennants, 1 WS title, only 348 wins, but a .582 career mark). I donít think his managerial side is there, but he may draw enough support to get in on that side.

    Dihigo, Martin An absolutely brilliant player who clearly belongs on that basis. He won 2 pennants as a manager in Cuban Winter ball and one in Mexico in the 40ís when that league was benefitting from a WW II influx of Negro League talent.

    Frisch, Frankie Definitely a HOF as a player, but take away his playing exploits, and youíre left with his ďcontributionsĒ in the Veteranís Committee plus a single World Series title and a .514 career winning percentage, which doesnít get it done for me.

    Gordon, Joe A legitimate HOF player in my view. However, he has no titles as a manager and a sub .500 winning percentage.

    Lemon, Bob A heck of a pitcher, and I think heís a worthy member of the Hall on that basis. As a manager, heís closer than you might think with two pennants (1 in the second half of 81) and a World Series title up against a .516 career winning percentage and only 430 wins.

    Robinson, Frank A no brainer on the player side. On the contributor side, though, about all he has is being the first African American manager, because a sub .500 career mark with no seasons winning a division (much less a pennant or World Series) isnít what we associate with a HOF manager.

    Next, the guys I won't vote for as players, but would vote for on the contributor side:

    Commiskey, Charlie He belongs on the contributor side, but not nearly the kind of player that the Hall likesóa 1B with a 82 OPS+ is not someone who draws much support.

    Cooper, Andy Iím not sold on him as a player or even as a combined candidate, though he did have significant success as a manager. Unless I buy into him more as a player, I cannot support him in this project.

    Creighton, Jim Too short a career to make it for me as a player if you donít count his pioneering of pitching as a key part of the game. Now, in a Hall where you get in once and done, that pioneering bit is huge beyond a doubt, enough to merit induction. But I canít give him pioneering credit twice, and without doing so, he falls short IMHO.

    Huggins, Miller Clearly successful enough to merit induction as a manager. As a player, he was good, but I donít think he measures up.

    O'Doul, Lefty His work in helping get the Japanese professional game going got him into the Japanese Hall, and merits recognition in Cooperstown as well. He was also important in the Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately, when you look at him as a player, he only had 77 IP and 3658 PA. As a hitter, he was good, but not good enough to make up for the brevity of his career. I donít give a lot of credit for his PCL play, and that seals the issue for me.

    O'Neill, Buck An amazing overall body of work, and while he wasnít a bad player, IMHO itís hard to make the case for him as a great on that basis.

    White, Sol (probably) I simply donít know enough about him as a player to support him solely in that role. A significant figure in blackball overall, though.

    Finally, the guy who I won't vote for in either half of the balloting:

    Hodges, Gil I donít buy into him as a combined candidate, so thereís simply no way I can support him on either side. His managing record (sub .500 career mark, only one WS title and pennant) isnít what makes the HOF, but is better if you look at the teams he took over and the progress they made. My opinion is that had he lived, he might well have proven himself worthy solely as a manageróbut he didnít, and I donít get into that kind of ďwhat could have beenĒ stuff
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    My argument for Minoso is that I look mostly at four benchmarks, and Minoso does well by those measures, even without much help due to integration issues. Minoso may have "come up" at 23, but really didn't get to play in the majors until age 26. I think he lost at least 2-2 1/2 years that he would have had in a fully integrated game.

    I look for 30 WAA when below average seasons are zeroed out, and in his major league career, Minoso scored 30.4
    I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, and Minoso meets that exactly.
    I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and Minoso bests that with a 18.7 mark
    I look for 50 WAR, and he's at 47.5, and he'd probably make that with even one more full year in the majors.

    So, in essence, Minoso meets all four benchmarks, and that's enough for me. But look at his season by season excellence:

    7 years an all-star;
    8 times in the top 10 in WAR among position players;
    9 times in the top 10 in on base percentage;
    6 times in the top 10 in slugging percentage;
    8 times in the top 10 in OBP + slg;
    9 times in the top 10 in runs scored;
    5 times in the top 10 in RBI; and
    8 times in the top 10 in average.

    That's not a top tier HOFer, I'll grant you, but for me it's enough of a resume to deserve induction.
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    As I see it, Hodges benefits from several things:

    1) good choice of teammates;
    2) the old but not yet dead fascination with RBI stats;
    3) the romance of the old Brooklyn Dodgers;
    4) the fact he was a well-regarded person in the game;
    5) the Miracle Mets; and
    6) his untimely death gives him a "halo effect".

    He was a good enough first baseman, but if you look at WAA as I now do, he's well short as a player:

    9.8 WAA in his top three seasons when I'm looking for 14 in this category;
    14.1 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons when I'm looking for 17.5 in this category;
    19.6 career WAA when his below average seasons are zeroed out, when I'm looking for 30 in this category;
    less than 50 WAR.

    Had he managed a little longer with similar success to what he had experienced up to his death, he'd be close enough to get in on the combination of all of his contributions for me. Unfortunately, he didn't. I'm not giving Ross Youngs or Ray Chapman or Addie Joss a pass because of their premature deaths, so I'm not giving it to Hodges, either.

    Among 1B I'd prefer Dick Allen, Keith Hernandez and Will Clark to him.
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  20. #445
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    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    The rate stats that you cite are impressive, but I just don't see his body of work anywhere near HOF status. His stats are half of what Albert Belle produced, and Belle is slighted for his lack of longevity. I think Minoso is a huge reach.
    Quote Originally Posted by jalbright View Post
    My argument for Minoso is that I look mostly at four benchmarks, and Minoso does well by those measures, even without much help due to integration issues. Minoso may have "come up" at 23, but really didn't get to play in the majors until age 26. I think he lost at least 2-2 1/2 years that he would have had in a fully integrated game.

    I look for 30 WAA when below average seasons are zeroed out, and in his major league career, Minoso scored 30.4, Belle 20.5
    I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, and Minoso meets that exactly, Belle 13.5
    I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and Minoso bests that with a 18.7 mark, Belle 17.2
    I look for 50 WAR, and he's at 47.5, and he'd probably make that with even one more full year in the majors. Belle 36.9

    So, in essence, Minoso meets all four benchmarks, and that's enough for me. But look at his season by season excellence:

    7 years an all-star; Belle 5
    8 times in the top 10 in WAR among position players; Belle 4
    9 times in the top 10 in on base percentage; Belle 2
    9 times in the top 10 in runs scored; Belle 4
    8 times in the top 10 of OBP + Slg; Belle 5
    5 times in the top 10 in RBI; and Belle 8
    8 times in the top 10 in average. Belle 3
    Both led six times in slugging percentage

    That's not a top tier HOFer, I'll grant you, but for me it's enough of a resume to deserve induction.
    I put how Belle did in the same categories in bold above, and you're simply wrong that Belle clearly outshone Minoso. These data points would clearly indicate that while Belle had more power, the overall picture is in favor of Minoso. That may or may not make Minoso a HOFer in your mind, but ruling him out because he's a lesser player than Belle is way off the mark. I'll add the gray ink measure also favors Minoso, 189-137.

    Quote Originally Posted by JR Hart View Post
    I'm not buying it. Getting into the top 10 in statistical catagories in the 1950s American League, isn't really a feat. Albert Belle is one of the top sluggers in ML history. He has a higher Slugging pct than Musial, Mays, Aaron, Mantle and all but 13 players ever. Belle had monster seasons.
    Quote Originally Posted by willshad View Post
    Agreed. The competition level for leaderships was a joke in Minoso's time, compared to Belles..not to mention more players to compete with for Belle. Despite what WAR says, Belle had at least 4 seasons that were much better than anything Minoso did.
    Well, then, how about comparing how they made the top 20 of the major leagues?

    WAR-- Minoso 6 times, Belle 4
    OBP-- Minoso 9 times, Belle 4
    Slg-- Belle 6 times, Minoso 4
    OPS-- Minoso 9 times, Belle 5
    avg-- Minoso 8 times, Belle 3
    runs scored-- Minoso 9 times, Belle 4
    RBI-- Belle 8 times, Minoso 6

    Minoso's competing against Campanella, Snider, Jackie Robinson, Aaron, Mays, F Robinson, Clemente, Mantle, Ted Williams, Kaline and Berra, among others. I have a hard time seeing that Belle's competition is much steeper than that.
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  21. #446
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    Quote Originally Posted by J W View Post
    I already ranked them in the other thread... I can copy here if need be.

    It looks like given the choice, most people would take Jacob Ruppert over A.J. Reach as a contributor. I do endorse both owners as contributors but I believe Reach contributed more to the actual game of baseball than Ruppert did. I also believe there is a disproportionate number of executives in the HoF tied to the city of New York. Reach would introduce some much needed diversity, even though he did his work in nearby Philadelphia. Anyone care to debate?
    Here's what pushes Ruppert over Reach for me: he hired Ed Barrow, and at least approved the hires of Miller Huggins and Joe McCarthy. Additionally, he pushed Barrow to develop a farm system, and even chose (over Barrow's preferred choice) George Weiss to head that system. Weiss would be another important part of making the Yankees so dominant, first as head of the farm system and later as GM. That's in addition to the money Ruppert poured into making the Yankees a powerhouse. I see Ruppert, Barrow, Weiss as the front office trio that built the Yankees into a powerhouse and kept it there through the early 60's and who hired the aforementioned two managers and Weiss' choice of Stengel later.

    Here's two sources talking about Barrow, but who mention Ruppert as an important actor:

    from the SABR bioproject on Barrow http://sabr.org/bioproj/person/c9fdbace:
    By 1932, after paying $125,000 for minor leaguers Lyn Lary and Jimmie Reese, neither of whom turned into stars, the success of the Cardinals minor league operation, and changes to the player limit and option rules, the Yankees recognized that they needed to develop a farm system. Following the acquisition of the Newark International League franchise, the club hired another future Hall of Fame executive, George Weiss, to run it. Barrow actually wanted to hire Bob Connery of the St. Paul Saints with whom the Yankees had a long relationship, but Ruppert insisted on Weiss.
    and from an interview of the author of a full length biography of Barrow, Dan Levitt http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...th_dan_lev.php :
    In the 1930s the onset of the Depression led to new rules regarding the ownership of minor league franchises. With these revised, more favorable rules in place, owner Jacob Ruppert demanded Barrow start a farm system. Barrow quickly developed the best minor league organization in the league while his scouts redirected their efforts to nation's best amateurs to stock it.
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    I'll now add Tony Oliva to a discussion I've had about Minoso and Albert Belle, adding a few more data points. Oliva will appear in red

    My argument for Minoso is that I look mostly at four benchmarks, and Minoso does well by those measures, even without much help due to integration issues. Minoso may have "come up" at 23, but really didn't get to play in the majors until age 26. I think he lost at least 2-2 1/2 years that he would have had in a fully integrated game.

    I look for 30 WAA when below average seasons are zeroed out, and in his major league career, Minoso scored 30.4, Belle 20.5 Oliva 25.8
    I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, and Minoso meets that exactly, Belle 13.5, Oliva 13.4
    I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and Minoso bests that with a 18.7 mark, Belle 17.2, Oliva 16.3
    I look for 50 WAR, and he's at 47.5, and he'd probably make that with even one more full year in the majors. Belle 36.9, Oliva 39.7

    So, in essence, Minoso meets all four benchmarks, and that's enough for me. But look at his season by season excellence:

    7 years an all-star; Belle 5 Oliva 8
    1.90 MVP shares, Belle 2.38, Oliva 1.90
    15 points of black ink, Belle 28, Oliva 41 note: average HOFer mark is 27
    189 points of gray ink, Belle 137, Oliva 146 note: average HOFer mark is 144
    35 HOF standards, Belle 36, Oliva 29 note: average HOFer mark is 50
    3 Gold Gloves, Belle 0, Oliva 1
    8 times in the top 10 in WAR among position players; Belle 4, Oliva 4
    9 times in the top 10 in on base percentage; Belle 2, Oliva 3
    9 times in the top 10 in runs scored; Belle 4, Oliva 5
    8 times in the top 10 of OBP + Slg; Belle 5, Oliva 6
    5 times in the top 10 in RBI; and Belle 8, Oliva 6
    8 times in the top 10 in average. Belle 3, Oliva 8
    6 times in the top 10 in slugging percentage, Belle 6, Oliva 7

    I can't put Oliva at the top of this trio. My own take on Oliva is that his 45-50% maximum percentage of the BBWAA vote pretty well captures his case. About half the folks think he was HOF caliber, the other half don't--but the Hall requires 75% to agree. Oliva is deserving of the degree of support he got from the BBWAA, and as such is a guy who definitely belongs in the discussion. However, 45% of the BBWAA vote, like any one or even two of the stats cited above shouldn't automatically entitle the guy to a plaque. IMHO, Oliva is close, but no cigar (or plaque, if you prefer).
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    Quote Originally Posted by blade1969 View Post
    I'm not sure why Doby did so poorly in the BBWAA HOF voting, but I suspect it's got more to do with his short career (only 1,515 hits - remember stats like this were very important to voters back then, and still are, for that matter) than with racism. After all, black players won the NL MVP award 15 of 21 years from 1949-1969, and these are being voted on my baseball writers, just as the HOF voters are baseball writers.
    Well, why did Doby not have at least another 2-3 seasons in the majors? The color line is the answer, and guess what gave rise to that. It's a more subtle form of racism, I agree, but it still springs from that poisoned well. A big portion of his value was in the walks he drew, and that wasn't appreciated at the time by many, whether the player was white, black or polka-dotted.

    But even without his Negro League time, he did quite well. In my main approach, I look at three aspects of wins above average and career WAR. The only one he isn't at HOF level is career WAR, where he's at 49.4 and the cutoff I use is 50. Any credit for Negro League play, and he clears that one. The others:
    I look for 30 career WAA, he had 30.4
    I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, he had 14.7
    I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and he had 20.6.

    He was a seven time all-star;
    was in the top 10 among position players in WAR 8 times, once 1st and twice 2nd;
    was in the top 10 in OBP six times;
    he was in the top 10 in slugging percentage 8 times, once first and once second;
    he was in the top 10 in OPS 9 times, once leading the league and two more times second;
    was in the top 10 in runs scored 6 times;
    was in the top 10 in HR 7 times, leading the league twice and third two more times; and
    was in the top 10 in RBI six times, once first in the league and second another time.

    The only two AL OF who were truly his contemporaries who were better were T Williams and Mantle.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fuzzy Bear View Post
    James goes back and forth on a number of guys. In his 1984 HISTORICAL BASEBALL ABSTRACT James was pro-Drysdale, and was OK about Tinker, Evers, and Chance (glowing about Evers), whereas in 1994 he reversed himself on Drysdale and agreed with critics of the Tinker-Evers-Chance selection, stating, essentially, that those guys really were as bad as the critics said. (In 1984, James stated that Tinker, Evers, and Chance were the guts of a great team, the first modern dynasty, and were justified on that basis. He's gone back and forth on Buddy Myer, and a few others.)
    Some of his changes have deal with changes in what method he's used to do the evaluating, and I've had similar issues with a few guys. My current view is for Drysdale, for Chance (he's at least very close as a player IMHO, and that's without any credit for also managing such that great squad--and managers with that level of success have traditionally gotten in), Evers was a fine player, but he had issues staying in the lineup (only three seasons of 150 or more games, versus 12 seasons of 127 games or less. Yes, two were seasons with one cameo appearance each, and his first season was short, but he just didn't stay in the lineup enough. Tinker was durable, but except for 1908, he has no seasons of 3 WAA or 5 WAR. That means a fairly low peak. If Joe had done his thing for another 2000 to 3000 PA, he'd be good enough even with that low peak, but with 7150 career PA, that peak isn't enough.
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    Quote Originally Posted by leagueleader View Post
    A lot of that info I didn't know. Seems like his injury followed him back to Baker Bowl for his last 7 years. As I inferred or guessed in #16 an injury really limited his ability from 34 on. Klein in his marvelous 28-33 seasons earned Cooperstown no doubt about it. baker Bowl was a hitters paradise but no one used the field better than he did. When he returned to Philly in 36 his seasons were worse than they were in Chicago. It wasn't the field
    that produced the early record seasons it was a healthly Klein. Still holds the runs scored record for the league 158. Only player ever to lead the league in homeruns and stolen bases the same season. Klein also holds the modern era record for outfield assists in a year 44 he was when healthy a two way player.
    I'll concede the injury info at least modifies my view of him. An injury makes more sense than being so clearly a one-park wonder. But many players get injured, and I cut them no slack for that. Klein was ordinary at best from 1934 on, and he doesn't have a long career anyway. That means he needs a top player of his time peak to merit inclusion in the Hall. On the surface, he might seem to be good enough, being second in OPS for corner OF with a minimum of 1500 PA from 1928-1933, beaten only by a guy I understand was pretty good himself, went by the nickname Babe something... darned if I can remember his last name==oh yeah, Ruth. Just for reference, his overall marks were .360 average, .412 OBP, and .636 slugging for that time. But when we look at his home/road splits, he is an absolute monster in the Baker Bowl, with a .421/.467/.767 line. He's good but not overwhelming on the road, with a .296/.355/.500 line (the averages for that period would be about .280/.340/.397 rather than the norms we're used to). But Klein does deserve some credit for his play in the Baker Bowl. We'll make his playing time in all the parks about even, which means dividing his Baker Bowl record by 7 and adding it to the road record to generate his rate stats. That way, he comes out at .313/.360/.534. Compared to other corner OF who had at least 1500 PA in that time, he's 10th in OPS if we use this neutral park value rather than his raw data. Tenth might be enough to get you in if you maintain that level for a long time, but that's not Klein's profile. In that period, his neutralized stats finish behind Hafey and Babe Herman but above Cuyler and Manush. I think that's a fair assessment, but I wouldn't put any of those five in the Hall if it were my call.
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