Albright's musings

[jalbright]

For comparison purposes, here's the pre-1871 record of Timeline HOF honoree George Wright:

GEORGE WRIGHT

1864 – Played for Gotham (New York), 3-7-1
Competition: NYC Area
Position: C
Runs: 19 in 8 games. Tied for team lead in total runs with Andrew Gibney.
Outs – 2.37 per game.

1866 (a) – Played for Gotham (New York), 4-4
Competition: NYC Area, Washington
Position: C
Runs: 21 in 5 games. Tied for team lead in run average.
Outs: 1.80 per game.

1866 (b) – Played for Union (Morrisania), 25-3
Competition: NYC Area, Connecticut, Albany, Philadelphia
Position: SS-C
Runs: 42 in 12 games.
Outs: 1.33 per game.

1867 – Played for National (Washington DC), 29-7. Statistics from just 30 games are available.
Competition: East coast from NYC Area to Washington; some teams in the Midwest.
Position: 2B-SS-P
Runs: 182 in 29 games (first on team; George Fletcher had 169).
Outs: 2.21 per game.
Wright’s runs average of 6 runs, 8 over was second among the NA’s established clubs.

1868 – Played for Union (Morrisania NY), 37-6
Competition: East Coast and Midwest
Position: SS-2B
Runs: 195 in 43 games (top on team)
Outs: 2.11 per game.

1869 – Played for Cincinnati (Cincinnati), 57-0, 19-0 against pro teams.
Competition: East and Midwest; five games in San Francisco
Position: SS-P
Runs: 339 in 57 games (first on team; Waterman 293)
Hits: 304 (first on team: Waterman 228. 5.33 per game; nobody else on team had 4 per game.)
Total Bases: 614 (first on team; Sweasy second with 422. 10.77 bases per game; Sweasy had 7.40.)
Outs – 2.03 per game
Wright had 14 IP, and gave up 11.57 runs per 9 innings. No ERA data available.
Wright set NA records for runs average, hits average, and total bases average.

1870 – Played for Cincinnati (Cincinnati), 67-6-1, 27-6-1 vs. pros (best pro team)
Competition: National
Position: SS
Hits: 248 in 58 games.
Total Bases: 411
Wright’s hits average of 4.27 per game and total bases average of 7.08 per game led the NA.

My approach is to compare runs to outs. According to what Marshall Wright has said, an average player will have about 2 runs per game and 3 outs, for a 0.67 ratio. Good players will be at 3 or more runs per game and less than 3 outs, or over a ratio of 1.00. For his first five seasons (through 1869), then, George Wright did phenomenally well, with 756 runs and 299 outs, a ratio of 2.53.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Joe Start

Start has been on my Timeline ballot from the beginning. His post-1870 record is well documented. From 1876 until his retirement, he averaged 25 win shares per 162 games, which is pretty good considering he was 33 in 1876. He was the oldest player in major league baseball for the final eight years of his career, and was a productive regular for seven of those eight years.

Start was also considered one of the best players of the 1860s. He was known for hitting the longball; unfortunately, total bases were not recorded as a statistic until 1868.

Data for his pre-1871 career are given below:

1860 – Played for Enterprise (Brooklyn), 2-7
Competition: NYC Area
Position: 3B-1B
Runs: 13 (tied for third on team) in 6 games. (R. Cornwall and Oddie had 16 runs each).
Outs – 2.50 per game.

1861 – Played for Enterprise (Brooklyn), 5-4
Competition: NYC Area
Position: 1B-3B
Runs: 29 in 7 games. (Third on team; Fred Crane and John Chapman each had 30 runs in 10 games.)
Outs – 1.71 per game.
Start’s average of 4 runs, 1 over per game tied him for the NA lead with Campbell of Eckford (Brooklyn).

1862 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 2-3
Competition: NYC Area
Position: 1B
Runs: 6 in 4 games.
Outs: 2.75 per game.

1863 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 8-3
Competition: NYC area, Philadelphia, Princeton NJ
Position: 1B-OF-SS
Runs – 23 in 9 games (third on club; Charles Smith had 33 in 11 games, and Dickey Pearce had 30 in 11 games).
Outs – 2.89 per game.

1864 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 20-0-1
Competition: NYC Area, Woodstock ON, Princeton NJ, Philadelphia, Rochester NY
Position: 1B-3B
Runs – 82 in 18 games. Fifth on team in runs per game.
Outs – 2.61 per game.

1865 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 18-0
Competition: NYC area, Philadelphia, Washington
Position: 1B
Runs: 82 (top on team; Fred Crane had 71 and Charles Smith 70) in 18 games.
Outs: 2.17 per game
Start led the NA in both runs and runs average this season.

1866 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 17-3
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Boston
Position: 1B
Runs: 69 in 16 games (First on team; John Chapman also had 69 runs, but in 18 games).
Outs: 2.31 per game

1867 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 19-5-1
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Rochester NY
Position: 1B
Runs: 83 in 19 games, second on team (Fred Crane 88 in 25 games, Pearce 83, Bob Ferguson 82). Only player on team to have a runs average over 4.
Outs: 2.11 per game.

1868 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 47-7
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: 1B
Runs: 235 in 52 games. First on team in runs and run average.
Hits: 233 (First on team).
Total Bases: 283 (Third on team. Ferguson 312, Chapman 301)
Outs: 2.35 per game.
Among NA teams that kept records of hits, Start finished first in the NA in total hits and hit average (4 hits, 25 over).

1869 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 40-6-2, 15-6-1 vs. pros (second of 12 pro teams)
Competition: East Coast and Cincinnati
Position: 1B
Runs: 202 in 46 games (First on team; Chapman 197, Pike 193)
Hits: 203 (first on team; Curtis Chapman 197)
Total Bases: 341 (first on team; Pike 325)
Outs: 2.59 per game

1870 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 41-17, 20-16 vs. pros (fifth best pro team)
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: 1B
Hits: 2.88 per game (best on team; Chapman had 2.58 per game)
Total Bases: 4.41 per game (second on team; Pike 4.58, Chapman 3.62)

Using my runs to outs approach, Start comes in (through 1869) with 824 runs to 468 outs, a 1.77 ratio.

[jalbright]

Dickey Pearce

Pearce is another name on my Timeline ballot. However, the case for his induction rests on his play during the 1860s.

*Pearce was widely regarded as one of the top three baseball players during the 1860s; Start and Harry Wright were in a class with him. However, many of the raves were about Pearce's spectacular fielding - usually calling him the top fielder in the game - and no statistical record of his defense exists.

*Pearce was the captain for the undefeated Atlantic teams of 1864 and 1865. There were basically no managers in those days; the captain controlled the batting order and directed play during the game.

*According to the best research available, Pearce is the person who turned SS into one of the game's key defensive positions. Before Pearce, SS was a position where you would hide a "good-hit, bad-field" player.

*Also, Pearce was the inventor of bunting, and considered one of the best bunters of the day.

*Pearce seems to fill the description of a lead-off hitter; that and his use of the bunt would have increased his outs per game a bit.

Here's the pre-1871 playing record for Dickey Pearce:

1857 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 7-1-1.
Competition: New York and Brooklyn.
Position: SS
Runs – 28 in eight games. (John Price scored 30 in 8 games; Peter O’Brien scored 29 in 8 games. Mattie O’Brien scored 23 in six games.)
Outs – 2.75 per game.

1858 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 7-0
Competition – New York, Brooklyn, and New Brunswick NJ.
Position: SS
Runs – 21, good for sixth on the team.
Outs – 3.25 per game.
Pearce is given credit for 8 games, and box scores are not available for all Atlantic games, so Pearce played in several New York-Brooklyn “all-star” games.

1859 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 11-1
Competition – New York, Brooklyn, and Morrisania.
Position: SS
Runs – 44 (first on team; John Oliver was second with 41. 3.67 runs per game trails only Oliver’s 3.72.)
Outs – 1.92 per game.
Atlantic was responsible for the only loss of Star (8-1) and for two of Eckford’s three losses.

1860 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 12-2-2
Competition: NYC Area and New Brunswick
Position: SS-C
Runs: 37 (third on team) in 16 games. (Charles Smith had 40, John Price 38). Average of 2.31 was third on team.
Outs – 2.87 per game.

1861 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 5-2
Competition: NYC Area and New Brunswick NJ
Position: C-SS
Runs: 37 in 10 games. His 3.7 runs per game was second best on the team to R. Seinsoth, who apparently was not in any all-star games.
Outs: 2.70 per game.
The 37 runs lead the NA, and his average of 3 runs, 7 over was third best in the NA in 1861.
Pearce played in at least three “all-star” matches.

1862 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 2-3
Competition: NYC area
Position: C
Runs: 13 in 5 games. Led team in runs.
Outs – 2.60 per game.

1863 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 8-3
Competition: NYC area, Philadelphia, Princeton NJ
Position: C
Runs: 30 in 11 games (second on team; Charles Smith had 33, while Joe Start and Fred Crane had 23 each).
Outs – 2.91 per game.

1864 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 20-0-1
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Princeton NJ, Rochester, Woodstock ON
Position: C-SS-OF; also team captain
Runs: 94 in 20 games. (Second on team. Charles Smith had 100 runs, and John Chapman had 88.)
Outs – 3.10 per game.
Pearce had the third best runs average in the NA, at 4 runs, 14 over for the season.

1865 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 18-0
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Washington
Position: C-SS-2B; also team captain
Runs: 64 in 17 games (fifth on team; Start 82, Crane 71, Charles Smith 70, Chapman 64)
Outs – 3.23 per game.
Atlantic was responsible for two of the three losses by Athletic (Philadelphia).

1866 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 17-3
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Boston
Position: SS-OF
Runs: 41 in 12 games (seventh on team; Chapman and Start at 69 runs each, Sid Smith at 50).
Outs – 3.25 per game.

1867 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 19-5-1
Competition: NYC Area, Philadelphia, Rochester
Position: SS-3B-C-OF
Runs: 83 in 23 games (second on team. Fred Crane had 88, Start 83, Ferguson and Charley Mills 82 each).
Outs: 3.04 per game.

1868 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 47-7
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: SS-OF
Runs: 191 in 45 games (fourth on team, behind Start 235, Chapman 222, Ferguson 212. Runs average was second on team)
Hits: 185 (fourth on team; Start 233, Chapman 218, Ferguson 194. Second on team in hits per game)
Total Bases: 222 (seventh on team)
Outs: 3.09 per game.

1869 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 40-6-2, 15-6-1 vs. pros (second of 12 pro teams)
Competition: East Coast and Cincinnati
Position: SS
Runs: 174 in 47 games (fourth on team; Start 202, Chapman 197, Pike 193)
Hits: 175 (third on team; Start 203, Chapman 197)
Total Bases: 236 (fifth on team; Start 341, Pike 325, Chapman 313)
Outs: 3.28 per game.

1870 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 41-17, 20-16 vs. pros (fifth best pro team)
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: SS
Hits: 2.35 per game (fourth on team; Start 2.88, John Chapman 2.58, Lip Pike 2.48)
Total Bases: 3.00 per game (sixth on team; Pike 4.58, Start 4.41, Chapman 3.62)

Using the runs to outs approach, Pearce has 857 runs to 708 outs through 1869, a 1.21 ratio.

[jalbright]

And now some information for those who played 5 or fewer seasons before 1871.
LIP PIKE

1866 – Played for Athletic (Philadelphia), 23-2
Competition: Philadelphia, NYC Area, New Jersey, Northeastern PA
Position: 3B-OF-2B
Runs: 100 in 16 games (Sixth on team; Dick McBride led with 160 in 25. Runs average was second on team.)
Outs: 3.06 per game.

1867 (a) – Played for Irvington (Irvington NJ), 16-7
Competition: NYC area and Eastern PA
Position: 3B
Runs: 19 in 6 games
Outs: 3.17 per game.

1867 (b) – Played for Mutual (New York), 23-6-1
Competition: East Coast from NYC area to Washington DC
Position: OF-3B-2B-1B
Runs: 82 in 21 games (sixth on team; Waterman 106, Hatfield 100, Hunt 97. Runs average third on team)
Outs: 2.43 per game

1868 – Played for Mutual (New York), 31-10
Competition: East Coast; one match against Cincinnati
Position: OF
Runs: 60 in 27 games. Fifth on team in run average.
Hits: 82 (sixth on team)
Total Bases: 109 (Sixth on team; Swandell 183, Flanly 179, Devyr 174)
Outs: 3.07 per game

1869 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 40-6-2, 15-6-1 vs. pros (second of 12 pro teams)
Competition: East Coast and Cincinnati
Position: 2B
Runs: 193 in 48 games. (Third on team; Start 202, Chapman 197)
Hits: 175 (third on team; Start 203, Chapman 197)
Total Bases: 325 (second on team; Start 341)
Outs: 2.33 per game

1870 – Played for Atlantic (Brooklyn), 41-17, 20-16 vs. pros (fifth best pro team)
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: 2B
Hits: 2.48 per game (third on team; Start 2.88, Chapman 2.58)
Total Bases: 4.58 per game (first on team; Start 4.41, Chapman 3.62)

DEACON WHITE

White is currently in the timeline HOF.

1868 – Played for Forest City (Cleveland), 11-11-1
Competition: Midwest and Pennsylvania
Position: SS-C
Runs: 73 in 23 games (led team in runs; second in runs average)
Outs: 2.74 per game

1869 – Played for Forest City (Cleveland), 19-6, 1-6 vs. pros
Competition: East and Midwest
Position: C
Runs: 26 in 8 games
Outs: 2.50 per game

1870 – Played for Forest City (Cleveland), 25-16, 9-15 vs. pros (seventh best among pros)
Competition: Midwest and East
Position: C-P
Hits – 3.00 per game; second on team (Ezra Sutton 3.54, Art Allison 2.72)
Total Bases – 5.11 per game (first on team; Sutton 5.05, Allison 4.08)
Pitched 74 innings; gave up 9.61 runs per 9 innings pitched.

Pike won a spot in the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit, and White is in the BBF Timeline HOF.

[jalbright]

More info from AG2004 on pre-1871 players:

We also have 1035 runs and 532 outs for Al Reach, for a 1.95 ratio through 1869.

However, the data given above is just for their pre-1871 career; data from the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players (the NABBP's successor, and usually just known as the "NA" today) and the NL are available at baseball-reference.

Reach's last season was in 1875, and he was just hanging on for those last three seasons, so he isn't much of a career guy.

Start lasted until 1886, so he does have the lengthy career. I'd like to see how many people averaged 25 win shares per 162 games after the age of 33, since that's the first season for which we have WS for Start.

Pearce's career started in 1856, but we don't have any records for that year. Baseballlibrary.com quotes the following about him:

The St. Louis Times, June 30, 1868, applauded Pearce, summarizing his contributions : "Pearce has been noted as a superior shortstop for ten years and to-day has no equal in the base ball field. He bats with great judgment and safety..."

Much of the praise for Pearce was for his fielding. We don't have any defensive statistics for the 1860s, but we do have them for the 1870s, and Pearce's career lasted until 1877. In 1874, he led NA shortstops in fielding percentage, was above average in range factor, and was ten years older than any other starting shortstop in the NA. I don't see any evidence there that would lead me to conclude that Pearce wasn't a great fielder during his prime.

There's also an article on Pearce at:
http://www.barnstablepatriot.com/sscape/pearce.html

---

Finally, there are four members of the Hall of Merit at baseballthinkfactory who played at least five seasons before the formation of the NAPBBP in 1871:

*George Wright
*Joe Start
*Dickey Pearce, and
*Lip Pike.

George Wright is already in the Timeline HOF here.

[jalbright]

Lip Pike is quite good in 1866-69, with 1.45 runs per out, and is 4.3 games above average per 162 games by Total Baseball's methods in 1871-75. That covers nine years of his career. Unfortunately, he had 163 games left. He played well in 1876, with 17 Win Shares, but after that, he wasn't much. His career is a little short for someone with a statistical record which needs so much inference and interpretation to my way of thinking

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Joe Start has an excellent 1.77 runs per out ratio for the 1860's, when 0.67 or so is average and 1.00 is good. In the 1860's, he had 8.41 full seasons. He didn't do too well in the 1871-1875 National Association, averaging 0.7 games above average per/162 games by Total Baseball's methods (Bill James didn't do win shares for the NA). That's the level of a good player, but nothing special. However, he played from 1876 to 1886 and averaged over 25 win shares/162 games there in 9.64 full seasons. That's all-star performance for that last eleven years of his career. A long career with sustained excellence is a recipe for a HOF quality career, even with a slight dip in the NA years in the middle. The Baseball Think Factory guys apparently agree with that thought, since they selected him to their Hall of Merit.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Dickey Pearce

He may be HOF worthy, but for reasons I will outline below, I can't go for him. He really didn't do much after 1870, so he's got to make it on the basis of his career before then. I won't argue about his defensive play, either.

However, his runs per out ratio is troublesome. AG2004 suggested in his original posts on pre 1871 players to look how they did relative to their teams because of unbalanced schedules. When I looked at runs per outs ratios for Pearce relative to his teammates, here's what I found:

Year	R/out	Place on team
1857	1.27	5th
1858	0.81	9th
1859	1.91	1st
1860	0.80	5th
1861	1.37	2nd
1862	1.00	2nd
1863	0.94	3rd
1864	1.52	4th
1865	1.16	7th
1866	1.05	6th
1867	1.19	4th
1868	1.37	5th
1869	1.13	7th

Yes, he played for generally fairly high quality teams, though not always (especially when he finished second with a 1.00 ratio). Overall, he's averaging between fourth and fifth on his own team. That just is too shaky a credential for me to back him, even assuming defensive excellence.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

ELECTED BBF HOF

Deacon White had three seasons before 1871, and in 1868-69, he had a nice 1.24 runs/out ratio in 1.32 full seasons. He followed that up with a 3.1 games per 162 games above average in the NA for 3.97 full seasons using Total Baseball's methods, and then averaged 23.70 win shares per 162 games for 13.18 full seasons after 1876. The latter mark is a solid all-star level. I think that his sustained excellence plus his longevity clearly make him a HOFer. The Baseball Think Factory and Timeline guys have come to that conclusion as well.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

George Wright ELECTED BBF HOF

He had seven seasons before 1871, and through 1869, he averaged a superb 2.53 runs per out and had 4.60 full seasons. Remember, 0.67 runs per out is about average, and 1.00 is good. He blows those levels away. In the 1871-1875 period, Total Baseball sees him as worth 4.6 games above average per 162 games, which is all-star territory, and he played 4.31 full seasons in those years. He finished with seven years (1876-1882) in the National League, and averaged 25.11 win shares per 162 games in 4.62 full seasons, which is again all-star territory. Thirteen and a half full seasons of performing at an average of all-star level play certainly seems to be an apt description of a Hall of Famer to me. The BBF Timeline and Baseball Think Factory guys agree, having elected him to their Hall of Fame and Hall of Merit, respectively.

If that isn't enough proof for you, from 1871 on, he was in the top 4 in runs scored seven times; the top ten in runs created six times; the top six in slugging percentage four times; the top 10 in OBP three times; and the top ten in average three times. This is from a shortstop, mind you, and it leaves out the first seven or so seasons of his career. He achieved 132 gray ink points in that period, good for 128th best all-time.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

On one extreme, I looked at the guys already in the BBF HOF

Name......	MLB WS/162	whole MLB yrs	Halls
Cap Anson	27.12......	20.42.......	HTF
Dan Brouthers	34.38......	13.98......	HTF
Jesse Burkett	30.48......	14.58......	HTF
Roger Connor	29.45......	16.50......	HTF
Ed Delahanty	31.34......	13.25......	HTF
Buck Ewing	29.69......	11.03......	HTF
Billy Hamilton	34.31......	11.45......	HTF
Willie Keeler	25.41......	14.84......	HTF

key H=Cooperstown; T=BBF Timeline F=Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit

Whole MLB seasons are calculated by adding up the percentage of his teams' games a player played in. If a player played in 90% of his team's games in season one, 100% in season two, and 75% in season three, that would come out to 2.65 whole seasons (0.9 + 1.00 + 0.75 = 2.65)

On the other extreme, I looked at numerous guys in one or none of the above-referenced "halls", and the following (among others--unless a guy played before 1875, he had to get 300 or more by multiplying his number of seasons played by his WS/162 and have at least 20 WS/162 to make the cut) were unable to make my cut: Pete Browning, Oyster Burns, Cupid Childs, Abner Dalrymple, Tom Daly, Fred Dunlap, Mike Griffin, Dummy Hoy, Hughie Jennings, Denny Lyons, John McGraw, Cal McVey, Billy Nash, Tip O'Neill, Lip Pike, Jimmy Ryan and Ned Williamson.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

19th century guys elected to only one or none of the Timeline, BTF Hall of Merit, Cooperstown or BBF HOF

……………….............	MLB……	whole	NA…….	whole	pre1870	pre1870	Other
Name………………......	WS/162	MLB yrs	TPR/162	NA yrs	R/out	wholeyr	Halls
Jack Glasscock….....	24.36	14.94	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	F
Herman Long…….....	22.91	13.40	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	none
Hardy Richardson....	27.99	11.97	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	F
Joe Start………….....	25.17	9.64	1.7	4.92	1.77	8.41	F
Ezra Sutton………....	24.83	11.35	1.7	4.95	n/a	n/a	F
George Van Haltren	28.08	14.19	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	T

key H=Cooperstown; T=BBF Timeline F=Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit

I'd say all six make my cut. Long barely scrapes over, and I'm giving a small break to Van Haltren and Start due to the inexactness of my approach. Start in particular deserves it, though, because his pre 1870 play is so critical to assessing his value, and I've tried to be conservative in that assessment.

The rating system I used for 19th century players is detailed in post #18 of this thread.

[jalbright]

19th century guys not in BBF HOF but in at least two others

………………........	MLB……	whole	NA…….	whole	pre1870	pre1870	Other
Name......	WS/162	MLB yrs	TPR/162	NA yrs	R/out	wholeyr	Halls
Hugh Duffy…….	27.51	12.44	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HT
George Gore…..	30.91	11.66	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	TF
Paul Hines…….	27.23	14.73	1.6	3.00	n/a	n/a	TF
Joe Kelley……..	26.95	13.02	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Bid McPhee…..	23.14	16.40	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
King Kelly…….	30.95	13.44	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Jim O'Rourke….	27.85	16.85	2.2	3.81	n/a	n/a	HTF
Harry Stovey…..	28.88	12.55	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	TF
Sam Thompson	27.17	10.61	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Deacon White..	23.70	13.18	3.1	3.97	1.24	1.32	TF
George Wright..	25.11	4.62	4.6	4.31	2.53	4.60	HTF

key H=Cooperstown; T=BBF Timeline F=Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit

I'll put all 11 of these in my queue. Just going by the numbers, I'd have to leave out Gore, Joe Kelley and Thompson. However, 1) my numbers are not as precise as for 20th century and beyond players and 2) the fact that at least two presumably knowledgeable groups said these guys are qualified means to me that I should give them the benefit of the doubt. That being the case, only Gore is a hard decision, and I let him in.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Rickey Henderson--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

This should be a no brainer for the when his time comes, as it has for the BBF HOF and will in due time for the BBWAA. Bill James' latest Historical Abstract places him fourth among left fielders, behind Ted Williams, Musial and Barry Bonds. That same Abstract places Rickey 26th all-time, one of only four eligible players in the top 100 the BBF HOF has yet to select, and only Suttles at 43rd is inside the top 80.

In career win shares he is fourth currently among left fielders and is tied for 12th with Frank Robinson among all outfielders. In his top five consecutive, he is 10th among left fielders listed in the latest Historical Abstract (the only one with a better mark not in the BBF HOF is Medwick). In his best three seasons in win shares, he totalled 111 points, good for sixth among all leftfielders in the latest Historical Abstract.

In Black Ink, he nearly doubles the average HOF hitter's score at 50 to 27, and in Gray Ink, he essentially matches the average HOF hitter's mark, 143 to 144. Seven of his ten most similar players as calculated by baseball-reference.com are in Cooperstown, and I think Raines will eventually make it as well.

He was a 10 time all-star; won a MVP; had 2.46 MVP award shares in his career; was in the top five in OBP 12 times; led the league in runs scored five times and was second through fifth another seven times, which helped him become the all-time leading run scorer; he's the leader in career steals and led the league 12 times in that category; he's second in career walks, leading that category 4 times. As Bill James said " without exaggerating one inch, you could find fifty Hall of Famers who, taken together, don't own as many records, and as many important [ed emphasis in original] records, as Rickey Henderson."

He belongs.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Dick Allen ELECTED BBF HOF SEPTEMBER 2005

Allen had 342 career win shares, good for 10th among first basemen, all of whom are in the BBF HOF other than Tony Perez. That mark is also 97th best all time among all players. His best 5 consecutive seasons in win shares score 170, third best among first basemen listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract behind Foxx and Gehrig. His top three years total 116, again third best among first basemen listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract behing Foxx and Gehrig. He won an MVP, was a seven time all-star, twice led the league in OBP, led the league in slugging percentage three times and was second or third four more times, twice led his league in homers and was second twice more. His black ink score is precisely average for HOFers at 27, and his gray ink is above the mark of an average HOF hitter (159 to 144).

Bill James sincerely dislikes Allen, making the case that he was a disruptive force on his teams. There's no question Allen could have been a far more positive force than he was, but is it enough to deny him what otherwise appears to be a well-deserved spot in either the BBF HOF or Cooperstown? Baseball is far less a team sport than basketball or football. Just look at the early 1970's A's squads or some of the Steinbrenner Yankee teams for proof that team chemistry is hardly essential for a baseball team to win the World Series. Even James has to concede Allen

had baseball talent equal to that of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or Joe DiMaggio, and did have three or four seasons when he was as good as anyone in baseball.

I think he belongs.

Jim Albright

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Bert Blyleven ELECTED BBF HOF OCTOBER 2005

If we eliminate those pitchers with careers starting before 1900 (when pitchers pitched a lot more innings due to the shorter pitching distance), Blyleven is tied for 11th in career win shares among pitchers with Robin Roberts. All the others are in Cooperstown and the BBF HOF. His career win share mark of 339 is just below 100th place in the Win Shares book among all players all time, published several years ago. His black ink score is a little below average for a HOF pitcher, but his gray ink is well above the average HOF pitcher's 185, as he attained 239 points there. That gray ink score is 24th best all-time among pitchers. He was in the top five in ERA seven times, in the top five in strikeouts 10 times, and led the league in shutouts three times. He was, in short, a high quality pitcher for a long period of time, and that is HOF material in my book.

For even more info on Blyleven's case, see this article by Rich Lederer:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...e_lonely_1.php

Also, nine of the ten most similar pitchers to him per baseball-reference.com are in the Hall, the only miss being #7, Jim Kaat.

Jim Albright

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Goose Gossage--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

He was an all-star 9 times, led the league in saves three times and was second in saves twice more. Bill James' latest Historical Abstract has him third among those who had over half their appearances in relief, and the other two are in the BBF HOF (Eckersley and Wilhelm). Among pitchers not in the BBF HOF, he is 7th in James' rankings behind six starters.

Jim Albright

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Minnie Minoso--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

Bill James places him 85th all-time in his latest Historical Abstract, one of the four guys in James' top 100 who are eligible and not yet in the BBF HOF (Rickey Henderson, who just made it is one, and the other two are Negro leaguers Mule Suttles and Willie Wells). James figures Minoso missed six seasons to the color line, but the Baseball Think Factory guys have evidence it may be only three. Even so, Minoso was a 7 time all star, was in the top five in average 5 times, was in the top 5 in OBP five times, led the league in steals his first three years and was second in that category three more times. He was a little below the average HOFer in Black ink at 15 points (versus 27) but was nicely above the average HOFer in Gray ink at 189 points (versus 144).

In James' second Historical Abstract, he said this about Minoso:

As a player, he was tightly similar to Slaughter, a fast, hustling, line-drive hitter with medium-range power. They were . . . both very popular players. Their batting and slugging averages [over their careers] are virtually identical. . . . Like Slaughter, Minoso played in the major leagues until he was well past forty, as a hustling, aggressive player of this quality often will.

Moving to WAR and Wins Above Average (for the Hall, I prefer WAA)
Career WAR: 52.8 in the majors, while 50 is what I consider the HOF benchmark there;
Career WAA (seasons minimum of 0): 31.7 in the majors, while 30 is the HOF benchmark for me there;
Best 3 in WAA: 15.6 in the majors, with 14 as my HOF benchmark; and
Best 5 consecutive in WAA: 20.1 in the majors, with 17.5 as my HOF benchmark.

I'll also note that he had seven seasons in the top five in WAR among position players.

He was a Negro League all-star before coming to the majors, and I have a hard time seeing him as below the average MLBer for those Negro League seasons.

To sum up, he was one of the very best American Leaguers during his career, and he makes all my HOF benchmarks without any credit for losing time to segregation--and I firmly believe he deserves some credit for that time. With that resume and background information, I can't come up with a good reason why he shouldn't belong.

Jim Albright

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John Montgomery Ward:--ELECTED AS CONTRIBUTOR AUGUST 2005

His career divides into three parts, which makes it hard to get a handle on him. First he was a pitcher, and, according to baseball-reference.com, the most similar guy to him in that capacity is HOFer Addie Joss. He hurt his arm, so he moved to shortstop, and the most similar player to him there is a darned good, though not great, player in Bobby Lowe. Put the value of Bobby Lowe on top of Addie Joss, though, and that is definitely a HOF quality player. Eventually, he became a powerful force in the business of baseball as well. So if you somehow don't like him as a player, he's got to make it as a contributor.

In Black Ink, he has 8 as a hitter, 22 as a pitcher when 27 and 40 respectively are average for HOFers. In Gray Ink, he has 92 as a hitter and 142 as a pitcher when 144 and 185 respectively are average for HOFers. In HOF standards, he gets 28 as a hitter and 43 as a pitcher, when 50 is the mark for an average HOFer. He doesn't make the mark of an average HOFer in either capacity, but you combine those two unique pieces of his career, and it's hard to deny he was a great one. (Source for the above: baseball-reference.com). I don't have his exact career Win Shares total at hand, but it is over 400, which is a very high total, well within the realm of Hall of Famers.

Jim Albright

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Old Hoss Radbourn--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

If you're looking for a pitcher who had most if not all of his career before the 60 foot 6 inch distance came into being, I think Charley "Old Hoss" Radbourn is the best of the lot after Tim Keefe. A key plus for him is that Bill James' latest Historical Abstract names Radbourn as the best pitcher in baseball for three years running, from 1882 through 1884. He saved the best for last in that three year stretch. Bill James calls Radbourn's 1884 season in which he pitched 678.2 innings with a 1.38 ERA, 441 strikeouts and a 59-12 record the "biggest-impact season of all-time" according to the Win Shares system.

Jim Albright

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Larry Doby ELECTED BBF HOF

If anyone needs any reasons beyond his role as the integrator of the American League and excellent performance in the majors and the Negro Leagues to vote for Larry Doby, here are some quotes from page 729 of Bill James' latest Historical Abstract:

"Doby was one of the five best players in the American League . . . every season between 1950 and 1954" in James' opinion

Doby was one of those rare five tool players: he did everything well. If you scored Doby on hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, defense, throwing, strike zone judgment, probably his lowest score would be hitting for average--yet he hit as high as .326 [ed. in the majors] and his career average of .283 is hardly a gaping wound.

Jim Albright

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Zack Wheat ELECTED BBF HOF

He is 8th in career win shares with 380 among the top 100 left fielders in the most recent Bill James Historical Abstract. That career win share total is 60th best all-time among all players in the Win Shares book.

From baseball-reference.com:
He was in the top 5 in average 7 times
He was in the top 5 in slugging percentage 5 times
He was in the top 5 in Runs Created 5 times
He has 227 points of Gray Ink, which is well above the average mark of 144 for batters in the Hall of Fame.

Also, seven of his 10 most similar players as determined by baseball-reference.com are in Cooperstown, and one of the three who isn't is Tony Gwynn, who is not yet eligible, but almost certain to get in.

Jim Albright

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Bill Dahlen ELECTED BBF HOF

He has 393 career win shares, good for 5th among the 100 shortstops listed in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. He's in the top 50 in career win shares among all players per the list in the Win Shares book. His black ink plus gray ink scores total 100, well above the cutoff of 50 I use for HOF caliber shortstops. He's 86th in HOF standards, definitely a HOF marker. He's 16th among shortstops listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract in total of his top 3 seasons in win shares, which is just inside HOF territory. His best five consecutive seasons come out at 23rd, which at first glance doesn't look like HOF territory, but those 19th century seasons were shorter. More impressive is the fact that per 162 games, he's 9th among shortstops in the latest BJHA.


John McGraw, in his book My Thirty Years in Baseball:

I traded Charlie Babb and Jack Cronin for Bill Dahlen.. . . It gave me just what I wanted, a great defensive shortstop. There were mighty few better than Dahlen.

From the 1924 Reach Guide

He was a cat on his feet, a sure fielder and one of the quickest thinking players of his day. He was always a step ahead of the opposition. . . . There was never a player with keener intuition than Dahlen nor more capable of carrying out his intentions.

From his plaque at the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit:

He made his real mark with his exceptional range, arm and quickness at short. He led shortstops in his league in assists 4 times and double plays 3 times. . . Retired with the shortstop major league career records for games (2,132), putouts (4,850), assists (7,500), and double plays (881). 2,457 career hits, 1,589 runs scored. Career OWP .577.

I should add that seven of the ten most similar players to him as determined by baseball-reference.com are in the Hall.

Jim Albright

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Goose Goslin--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

According to baseball-reference.com, he accumulated 200 gray ink points, well above the average mark of 144 for a HOF batter.

Bill James, on page 387 of his second Historical Abstract wrote the following about Goslin:

One of the really good ones, one of the few stars of his era who was every bit as good as his numbers. He turned in 100-RBI seasons like clockwork for 15 years, had outstanding speed, a powerful arm and good strike zone judgment. In what should have been his best years. . . 1923-1929, he played in Griffith Stadium in Washington . . . an impossible home run park, which probably kept him from driving in 150 runs a year. His total for those seven years was 22 home runs at home, 82 on the road. . . All the markers are positive. He did everything well, was consistent at it for a long period of time, and he helped his teams win. He has to be one of the top 100.

Jim Albright

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Billy Williams ELECTED BBF HOF

He's 11th among left fielders in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract, behind Raines and Minoso. James may be overvaluing Minoso a little because he had accepted the earlier birthdate for Minoso. Anyway, Williams had an excellent total of 208 gray ink points, well above the level of an average HOFer. He scores 374 career Win Shares with three top seasons of 33, 32 and 31. His best five consecutive years total 142 win Shares. I'd say he's a deserving candidate at this point of the proceedings.

Jim Albright