Albright's musings

[jalbright]

19th century guys not in BBF HOF but in at least two others

………………........	MLB……	whole	NA…….	whole	pre1870	pre1870	Other
Name......	WS/162	MLB yrs	TPR/162	NA yrs	R/out	wholeyr	Halls
Hugh Duffy…….	27.51	12.44	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HT
George Gore…..	30.91	11.66	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	TF
Paul Hines…….	27.23	14.73	1.6	3.00	n/a	n/a	TF
Joe Kelley……..	26.95	13.02	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Bid McPhee…..	23.14	16.40	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
King Kelly…….	30.95	13.44	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Jim O'Rourke….	27.85	16.85	2.2	3.81	n/a	n/a	HTF
Harry Stovey…..	28.88	12.55	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	TF
Sam Thompson	27.17	10.61	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	HTF
Deacon White..	23.70	13.18	3.1	3.97	1.24	1.32	TF
George Wright..	25.11	4.62	4.6	4.31	2.53	4.60	HTF

key H=Cooperstown; T=BBF Timeline F=Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit

I'll put all 11 of these in my queue. Just going by the numbers, I'd have to leave out Gore, Joe Kelley and Thompson. However, 1) my numbers are not as precise as for 20th century and beyond players and 2) the fact that at least two presumably knowledgeable groups said these guys are qualified means to me that I should give them the benefit of the doubt. That being the case, only Gore is a hard decision, and I let him in.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Rickey Henderson--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

This should be a no brainer for the when his time comes, as it has for the BBF HOF and will in due time for the BBWAA. Bill James' latest Historical Abstract places him fourth among left fielders, behind Ted Williams, Musial and Barry Bonds. That same Abstract places Rickey 26th all-time, one of only four eligible players in the top 100 the BBF HOF has yet to select, and only Suttles at 43rd is inside the top 80.

In career win shares he is fourth currently among left fielders and is tied for 12th with Frank Robinson among all outfielders. In his top five consecutive, he is 10th among left fielders listed in the latest Historical Abstract (the only one with a better mark not in the BBF HOF is Medwick). In his best three seasons in win shares, he totalled 111 points, good for sixth among all leftfielders in the latest Historical Abstract.

In Black Ink, he nearly doubles the average HOF hitter's score at 50 to 27, and in Gray Ink, he essentially matches the average HOF hitter's mark, 143 to 144. Seven of his ten most similar players as calculated by baseball-reference.com are in Cooperstown, and I think Raines will eventually make it as well.

He was a 10 time all-star; won a MVP; had 2.46 MVP award shares in his career; was in the top five in OBP 12 times; led the league in runs scored five times and was second through fifth another seven times, which helped him become the all-time leading run scorer; he's the leader in career steals and led the league 12 times in that category; he's second in career walks, leading that category 4 times. As Bill James said " without exaggerating one inch, you could find fifty Hall of Famers who, taken together, don't own as many records, and as many important [ed emphasis in original] records, as Rickey Henderson."

He belongs.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Dick Allen ELECTED BBF HOF SEPTEMBER 2005

Allen had 342 career win shares, good for 10th among first basemen, all of whom are in the BBF HOF other than Tony Perez. That mark is also 97th best all time among all players. His best 5 consecutive seasons in win shares score 170, third best among first basemen listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract behind Foxx and Gehrig. His top three years total 116, again third best among first basemen listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract behing Foxx and Gehrig. He won an MVP, was a seven time all-star, twice led the league in OBP, led the league in slugging percentage three times and was second or third four more times, twice led his league in homers and was second twice more. His black ink score is precisely average for HOFers at 27, and his gray ink is above the mark of an average HOF hitter (159 to 144).

Bill James sincerely dislikes Allen, making the case that he was a disruptive force on his teams. There's no question Allen could have been a far more positive force than he was, but is it enough to deny him what otherwise appears to be a well-deserved spot in either the BBF HOF or Cooperstown? Baseball is far less a team sport than basketball or football. Just look at the early 1970's A's squads or some of the Steinbrenner Yankee teams for proof that team chemistry is hardly essential for a baseball team to win the World Series. Even James has to concede Allen

had baseball talent equal to that of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, or Joe DiMaggio, and did have three or four seasons when he was as good as anyone in baseball.

I think he belongs.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Bert Blyleven ELECTED BBF HOF OCTOBER 2005

If we eliminate those pitchers with careers starting before 1900 (when pitchers pitched a lot more innings due to the shorter pitching distance), Blyleven is tied for 11th in career win shares among pitchers with Robin Roberts. All the others are in Cooperstown and the BBF HOF. His career win share mark of 339 is just below 100th place in the Win Shares book among all players all time, published several years ago. His black ink score is a little below average for a HOF pitcher, but his gray ink is well above the average HOF pitcher's 185, as he attained 239 points there. That gray ink score is 24th best all-time among pitchers. He was in the top five in ERA seven times, in the top five in strikeouts 10 times, and led the league in shutouts three times. He was, in short, a high quality pitcher for a long period of time, and that is HOF material in my book.

For even more info on Blyleven's case, see this article by Rich Lederer:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...e_lonely_1.php

Also, nine of the ten most similar pitchers to him per baseball-reference.com are in the Hall, the only miss being #7, Jim Kaat.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Goose Gossage--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

He was an all-star 9 times, led the league in saves three times and was second in saves twice more. Bill James' latest Historical Abstract has him third among those who had over half their appearances in relief, and the other two are in the BBF HOF (Eckersley and Wilhelm). Among pitchers not in the BBF HOF, he is 7th in James' rankings behind six starters.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Minnie Minoso--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

Bill James places him 85th all-time in his latest Historical Abstract, one of the four guys in James' top 100 who are eligible and not yet in the BBF HOF (Rickey Henderson, who just made it is one, and the other two are Negro leaguers Mule Suttles and Willie Wells). James figures Minoso missed six seasons to the color line, but the Baseball Think Factory guys have evidence it may be only three. Even so, Minoso was a 7 time all star, was in the top five in average 5 times, was in the top 5 in OBP five times, led the league in steals his first three years and was second in that category three more times. He was a little below the average HOFer in Black ink at 15 points (versus 27) but was nicely above the average HOFer in Gray ink at 189 points (versus 144).

In James' second Historical Abstract, he said this about Minoso:

As a player, he was tightly similar to Slaughter, a fast, hustling, line-drive hitter with medium-range power. They were . . . both very popular players. Their batting and slugging averages [over their careers] are virtually identical. . . . Like Slaughter, Minoso played in the major leagues until he was well past forty, as a hustling, aggressive player of this quality often will.

Moving to WAR and Wins Above Average (for the Hall, I prefer WAA)
Career WAR: 52.8 in the majors, while 50 is what I consider the HOF benchmark there;
Career WAA (seasons minimum of 0): 31.7 in the majors, while 30 is the HOF benchmark for me there;
Best 3 in WAA: 15.6 in the majors, with 14 as my HOF benchmark; and
Best 5 consecutive in WAA: 20.1 in the majors, with 17.5 as my HOF benchmark.

I'll also note that he had seven seasons in the top five in WAR among position players.

He was a Negro League all-star before coming to the majors, and I have a hard time seeing him as below the average MLBer for those Negro League seasons.

To sum up, he was one of the very best American Leaguers during his career, and he makes all my HOF benchmarks without any credit for losing time to segregation--and I firmly believe he deserves some credit for that time. With that resume and background information, I can't come up with a good reason why he shouldn't belong.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

John Montgomery Ward:--ELECTED AS CONTRIBUTOR AUGUST 2005

His career divides into three parts, which makes it hard to get a handle on him. First he was a pitcher, and, according to baseball-reference.com, the most similar guy to him in that capacity is HOFer Addie Joss. He hurt his arm, so he moved to shortstop, and the most similar player to him there is a darned good, though not great, player in Bobby Lowe. Put the value of Bobby Lowe on top of Addie Joss, though, and that is definitely a HOF quality player. Eventually, he became a powerful force in the business of baseball as well. So if you somehow don't like him as a player, he's got to make it as a contributor.

In Black Ink, he has 8 as a hitter, 22 as a pitcher when 27 and 40 respectively are average for HOFers. In Gray Ink, he has 92 as a hitter and 142 as a pitcher when 144 and 185 respectively are average for HOFers. In HOF standards, he gets 28 as a hitter and 43 as a pitcher, when 50 is the mark for an average HOFer. He doesn't make the mark of an average HOFer in either capacity, but you combine those two unique pieces of his career, and it's hard to deny he was a great one. (Source for the above: baseball-reference.com). I don't have his exact career Win Shares total at hand, but it is over 400, which is a very high total, well within the realm of Hall of Famers.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Old Hoss Radbourn--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

If you're looking for a pitcher who had most if not all of his career before the 60 foot 6 inch distance came into being, I think Charley "Old Hoss" Radbourn is the best of the lot after Tim Keefe. A key plus for him is that Bill James' latest Historical Abstract names Radbourn as the best pitcher in baseball for three years running, from 1882 through 1884. He saved the best for last in that three year stretch. Bill James calls Radbourn's 1884 season in which he pitched 678.2 innings with a 1.38 ERA, 441 strikeouts and a 59-12 record the "biggest-impact season of all-time" according to the Win Shares system.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Larry Doby ELECTED BBF HOF

If anyone needs any reasons beyond his role as the integrator of the American League and excellent performance in the majors and the Negro Leagues to vote for Larry Doby, here are some quotes from page 729 of Bill James' latest Historical Abstract:

"Doby was one of the five best players in the American League . . . every season between 1950 and 1954" in James' opinion

Doby was one of those rare five tool players: he did everything well. If you scored Doby on hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, defense, throwing, strike zone judgment, probably his lowest score would be hitting for average--yet he hit as high as .326 [ed. in the majors] and his career average of .283 is hardly a gaping wound.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Zack Wheat ELECTED BBF HOF

He is 8th in career win shares with 380 among the top 100 left fielders in the most recent Bill James Historical Abstract. That career win share total is 60th best all-time among all players in the Win Shares book.

From baseball-reference.com:
He was in the top 5 in average 7 times
He was in the top 5 in slugging percentage 5 times
He was in the top 5 in Runs Created 5 times
He has 227 points of Gray Ink, which is well above the average mark of 144 for batters in the Hall of Fame.

Also, seven of his 10 most similar players as determined by baseball-reference.com are in Cooperstown, and one of the three who isn't is Tony Gwynn, who is not yet eligible, but almost certain to get in.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Bill Dahlen ELECTED BBF HOF

He has 393 career win shares, good for 5th among the 100 shortstops listed in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. He's in the top 50 in career win shares among all players per the list in the Win Shares book. His black ink plus gray ink scores total 100, well above the cutoff of 50 I use for HOF caliber shortstops. He's 86th in HOF standards, definitely a HOF marker. He's 16th among shortstops listed in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract in total of his top 3 seasons in win shares, which is just inside HOF territory. His best five consecutive seasons come out at 23rd, which at first glance doesn't look like HOF territory, but those 19th century seasons were shorter. More impressive is the fact that per 162 games, he's 9th among shortstops in the latest BJHA.


John McGraw, in his book My Thirty Years in Baseball:

I traded Charlie Babb and Jack Cronin for Bill Dahlen.. . . It gave me just what I wanted, a great defensive shortstop. There were mighty few better than Dahlen.

From the 1924 Reach Guide

He was a cat on his feet, a sure fielder and one of the quickest thinking players of his day. He was always a step ahead of the opposition. . . . There was never a player with keener intuition than Dahlen nor more capable of carrying out his intentions.

From his plaque at the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit:

He made his real mark with his exceptional range, arm and quickness at short. He led shortstops in his league in assists 4 times and double plays 3 times. . . Retired with the shortstop major league career records for games (2,132), putouts (4,850), assists (7,500), and double plays (881). 2,457 career hits, 1,589 runs scored. Career OWP .577.

I should add that seven of the ten most similar players to him as determined by baseball-reference.com are in the Hall.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Goose Goslin--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

According to baseball-reference.com, he accumulated 200 gray ink points, well above the average mark of 144 for a HOF batter.

Bill James, on page 387 of his second Historical Abstract wrote the following about Goslin:

One of the really good ones, one of the few stars of his era who was every bit as good as his numbers. He turned in 100-RBI seasons like clockwork for 15 years, had outstanding speed, a powerful arm and good strike zone judgment. In what should have been his best years. . . 1923-1929, he played in Griffith Stadium in Washington . . . an impossible home run park, which probably kept him from driving in 150 runs a year. His total for those seven years was 22 home runs at home, 82 on the road. . . All the markers are positive. He did everything well, was consistent at it for a long period of time, and he helped his teams win. He has to be one of the top 100.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Billy Williams ELECTED BBF HOF

He's 11th among left fielders in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract, behind Raines and Minoso. James may be overvaluing Minoso a little because he had accepted the earlier birthdate for Minoso. Anyway, Williams had an excellent total of 208 gray ink points, well above the level of an average HOFer. He scores 374 career Win Shares with three top seasons of 33, 32 and 31. His best five consecutive years total 142 win Shares. I'd say he's a deserving candidate at this point of the proceedings.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Pee Wee Reese ELECTED BBF HOF
He lost three years to military service early in his career.

Even without it, he's impressive: he's 15th in career win shares among shortstops in the latest BJHA, 16th for the total of his best three years, and 13th for the total of his best 5 consecutive seasons. His career win share total is good for 146th best all-time among all players.

He led the league in steals once, was second five times, and was in the top five three more times.

He also was a ten time all-star despite the time he lost in the service. Really, if you gave him those three lost seasons in his career, he would have had around 2600 career hits (around 70th all-time) and about 1600 runs scored (around 40th all-time). His career win share total would easily be in the top 100, since he's only 26 shy of that without his wartime years. A very marginal starter would exceed that in three years. Combine that with his open and public acceptance of Jackie Robinson when Jackie was breaking the color line and the fact Pee Wee was a shortstop, that's clear HOF material IMO.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Billy Herman ELECTED BBF HOF

He has 134 Gray Ink points, which is 120th all-time.

He is 16th among second basemen in the latest BJHA in career win shares, 13th in the total of his best 3 seasons, and 12th in his total for his best 5 consecutive seasons. His career win share total, despite losing two years to military service, is 173rd best among all players. He also was a ten time all-star, all of them coming consecutively. That's consistent excellence, folks. Isn't that what a Hall of Famer should be?

Of those ahead of him, Biggio and Alomar are not yet eligible for BBF HOF (Alomar will be in November), and we've elected Morgan, Collins, Hornsby, J. Robinson, LaJoie, Sandberg, Carew, Gehringer and Frisch. Those eleven are responsible for the vast majority of the better marks. Kid Gleason gets him twice, but only because he had a fine year as an 18th century pitcher. That leaves Grich. Really, they're tied (Grich is 3 points ahead, actually) except for Grich's 31 point lead in Win Shares versus Herman's 94 point lead in gray ink. I take Herman in that comparison.

All of the above doesn't give Herman any credit for the two years he lost in the service during WW II. With those two years, he would have been likely to reach 2600 hits (around 70th all-time) with the significant kickers of 1) being a second baseman with 2) a career .300 average. Give him two more years, and his career win share total is almost surely in the top 130 all time, as he's only 23 away from that. Twenty three win shares is the level of a marginal starter for two years.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Jim O'Rourke ELECTED BBF HOF

According to baseball-reference.com, he has a great number of positives behind his case:

In the top five in average five times
Led the league in on base percentage twice
In the top five in runs scored eight times
In the top five in runs created eight times
Had 25 Black Ink points against the average mark of 27 for an average HOF batter
Had 288 Gray Ink points agains the average mark of 144 for an average HOF batter.

To that we can add that he has been named as a Hall of Famer by Cooperstown, the Baseball Think Factory folks, and our own Timeline participants. He was good in 1871-75, at +2.2 TPR/162 games for 3.81 whole seasons, but that was just getting warmed up for his career after 1876, when he averaged 27.85 win shares/162 games for 16.85 whole seasons. That's averaging top All-Star quality of play for nearly 17 seasons! If that isn't HOF quality, I don't know what is.

Even without accounting for the shorter seasons of his day, seven of the ten players most similar to O'Rourke according to baseball-reference.com are in Cooperstown.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Phil Niekro ELECTED BBF HOF JULY 2005

He's 26th in Bill James' latest historical abstract, which puts him at the top of the pitchers we haven't yet put in the BBF HOF. He had 43 black ink points and 191 gray ink points, both marks above average for a HOF pitcher. He also adds 375 career win shares, 30, 28 and 28 win shares in his best three years, and a best 5 year consecutive run of 118 win shares. That 375 career win shares is good for 11th all time among the top 100 listed in James' latest Historical Abstract. I agree with James that it's hard to do better than Phil Niekro at this point of the voting. I might add that of the 10 most similar pitchers to him as calculated by baseball-reference.com, 7 (G. Perry, Sutton, Carlton, Wynn, Spahn, Seaver and Roberts) are in Cooperstown and five of them are in the BBF HOF. His top four are all in Cooperstown as well.


Jim Albright

[jalbright]

George Davis ELECTED BBF HOF

Here's some highlights of what Bill James has written about George Davis, most specifically from Chapter 16 of Politics of Glory, which in later editions appeared under the title Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?

James notes that Davis meets 60% of the Hall of Fame standards, when a score of 50 is average for a Hall of Famer. Then he writes (page 191 of my book):

I made a list of all players according to runs scored plus RBI . . . The first 27 are all Hall of Famers except for Pete Rose . . . The 28th man is George Davis; then come another bunch of Hall of Famers. That doesn't give him any extra credit for being a shortstop.

Later he observes "[f]rom 1897 to 1902 Davis was probably the best player in baseball."


Then on page 192, James writes the following about Davis:

Total Baseball ranks Davis as the second-best player in . . . baseball in 1893. He disappears from the list until 1897, but then he ranks as the second-best player in 1897, the third-best player in 1898, the best player in 1899, the second-best in 1900, the third-best player in the American League in 1901, and the fifth best player in the American League in 1902. After missing the 1903 season [ed. due to disputes over whether his contract rights were held by the New York Giants or Chicago White Sox] . . . Davis was ranked as the fifth best player in 1904. He was ranked as the best player in the American League in 1905, and just missed the top five in 1906. That . . . is a remarkable record, to stay right at the top of the league for ten years. Not many . . . can match that.

On top of that, George finished fourth in career Win Shares among all shortstops listed in the 100 in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract with 398.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Tim Raines--Elected BBF HOF

Raines was an all-star 7 straight seasons and was in the top five in on base percentage seven times. He also is 7th in career Win Shares among the 100 LF listed in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract, and 5th in Win Shares for his top five consecutive seasons in that same group. If that's not enough for you, listen to this from another BBF poster:

I'm suprised that this is even a debate at all, and that 14 people think that Raines shouldn't be in. Not to debase the HOF, but the HOF was long ago debased, electing a litany of players from the 20's and 30's who got in on cronyism and raw numbers (mostly BA and RBI's, which were the stats du jour).

Someone else here wisely pointed out that Raines' .294 career BA was actually better than Hugh Duffy's (.324), Bill Lange's (.330), Lloyd Waner's (.316), Chuck Klein's 1.092 (.320), Goose Goslin's 1.090 (.316). It was also better than that of Mickey Cochrane, Chick Hafey, Pie Traynor, Frankie Frisch, and Earl Averill.

And remember that Raines accomplished this relative BA against more athletic fielders playing with much bigger gloves, on better manicured fields, and with less overall space for hits to fall (given the comparative stadium dimensions).

But it wasn't just batting average- Raines' career secondary average (all offensive value not represented by BA) was .356 (against a league secondary average of .250). For a guy whose career spaned 4 decades (and over 10,000 PA), this is pretty darn good.

Raines' 390 career Win Shares (43rd alltime) ranks him ahead of Joe Dimaggio (true, he missed 3 full seasons to WWII). However, it also places Raines ahead of HOFers Jesse Burkett, Rod Carew, Charlie Gehringer, Cap Anson, Zack Wheat, Luke Appling, Yogi Berra, Al Simmons, Billy Williams, Rafael Palmeiro, and future HOFers Roberto Alomar & Jeff Bagwell. Raines is WAY ahead of HOFers Harmon Killebrew, Stargell, Fisk, Heilmann, Brooks Robinson, Arky Vaughn, Dan Brouthers, Delahanty, Goslin, Snider, Max Carey, Tony Perez, Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, McGwire, Mize, Hamilton, Larkn, Banks, and Wee Willie Keeler.

It should also be noted that there are many, MANY guys who aren't even on this list, and are already in the HOF.

Raines led the league in Win Shares three years in a row (84-86). He was one of the best players in baseball during the 1980's, and this is playing in the NL before they expanded in 1993 (and then again in 1998).

Side note regarding expansion...three of these four extra NL teams added during the 90's (Colorado, Florida, and the Brewers) have been doormats, with a combined winning percentage of .454 replete with a multitude of cellar finishes.

More career value stats vindicating Raines-
WARP 3- 121.4
EqA- .307

To show what a joke it is to compare him to his supposed contemporary "rival" Andre Dawson

Win Shares- 340 (90th alltime)
WARP3- 99.6
EqA- .284

Raines was almost everything one could ask from a leadoff hitter- tons of walks, relatively few K's, incredible speed, a great SB percentage, and a very good batting average.

Plain and simple, Tim Raines is a Hall of Famer.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Amos Rusie ELECTED BBF HOF

Rusie led the league in strikeouts five times, is second to Niekro among retired pitchers not in the BBF HOF according to the rankings in Bill James' latest Historical Abstract, and is named in the same book as one of the three best pitchers in the period 1890-1899 by virtue of his inclusion in the all-star team for that period. His career win share total is 184th best all-time per the Win Share book. His peak performance persuades me to move him higher than that.

Averaged 29.11 win shares per season. Won 245 games although he only played nine seasons, winning over 30 four consecutive years. Career ERA+ of 130. Black Ink: 52, or 23rd all time; gray ink: 179, or 57th all time. Won the 1894 NL pitching triple crown.

In his nine seasons, he:
Led in ERA twice, top five five times
Led in wins once, top five five times
Led in fewest hits allowed per 9 IP four times, top five seven times
Led in strikeouts five times, top five seven times
Led in innings pitched once, top five six times
Led in shutouts four times, top five six times.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Gary Carter--ELECTED BBF HOF

He's listed as the catcher of the 1980-1989 all-star team in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. He was an all-star 11 times, 10 of them consecutively. This last point fits well with something James wrote about him in his second Abstract:

With the exception of Yogi Berra, no catcher in [ed major league] baseball history can match Gary Carter in terms of year-in and year-out offensive and defensive performance . . . . Only Carter and Berra were among the best players in the league year-in and year-out for a period longer than three years.

That post brought the following response from 2Chance, which I answered:

Gary Carter didn't impress me as much as he did many sportswriters. The fact that he made every All-Star team in the 80s is more an indictment of the dearth of talent at that position than an endorsement of his skills.

I need a lot more convincing before he ever makes my ballot.

Well, 2Chance, I'll try to convince you with this:

Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract uses win shares in several different ways to rate players. Three of them are career win shares, win shares in his three best seasons, and win shares in his best 5 consecutive seasons. Let's look at how Carter does in each. I will tell you that I'm a Carter backer at this point, and even I'm surprised at how well he does.

In career win shares, he's fourth among the catchers listed among James' top 100 with 337. This total is also 105th best overall all time.

In win shares for his best five consecutive seasons, he had 141, which is good for fifth among those same 100 catchers.

In his three best seasons, he totalled 94 win shares, which is good for a fifth place tie with Campanella and Fisk among that same 100 catchers.

In MVP Award shares, he's 91st overall, and he was a catcher who finished in the top ten in HR in seven seasons.

In light of this, I don't think your argument about the weakness of the catching field of Carter's time holds water.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Best players not in Cooperstown, by position
Note: Ineligible players, notably Pete Rose and Joe Jackson are not considered here.

C---Katsuya Nomura , Ted Simmons
1B--Sadaharu Oh , Dick Allen
2B--Joe Gordon
3B-- Ron Santo
SS--Bill Dahlen, Vern Stephens
OF--Paul Hines, Minnie Minoso
Isao Harimoto, Harry Stovey, Andre Dawson,
Sherry Magee
SP--Bert Blyleven
Masaichi Kaneda, Carl Mays
Victor Starffin, Bucky Walters
Kazuhisa Inao, Wilbur Cooper
RP--Dan Quisenberry

The first name is my first choice, but if he's in green print, he's from the 19th century, if in red, Japan. The name next to any 19th century guy is a 20th century player from the majors, and the name next to a Japanese player is a major leaguer. If the second choice to a Japanese player is from the 19th century, then I give a third choice from the 20th century major leagues.

[jalbright]

In case anyone is interested in Mexican stars, William McNeil covered them in his book Baseball's Other Stars. The only two he named to his all non major league team were Hector Espino and Andres Mora. I won't vouch for his numbers, as I have some qualms about his methods for comparison. However, using those numbers to project them as major leaguers means Espino is a first baseman averaging about .280 with about 380 career homers, and Mora an outfielder averaging about .260 with about 360 homers. Those numbers, with a ton of walks or some other qualifications might be enough to put a guy in HOF company, but they sure don't jump out at you as clearly indicating a HOFer. Both men played in the states (Mora had a brief, uneventful major league career, Espino returned home while a relatively successful minor leaguer) without demonstrating they belonged in Cooperstown, and McNeil's thumbnail sketches fail to change my belief the evidence on their behalf is insufficient.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Bill Mazeroski

His defense was excellent, but his batting was not. A few numbers:

2 Black Ink points (571st among position players)
12 Gray Ink Points (1227th among position players)
16 HOF Standards (1001st among position players)
715th in MVP award shares
84 OPS+

His Win Shares numbers are hardly inspiring: 219 career, 92 for his best five consecutive, and top three seasons of 23, 21 and 20. Those last three marks are low for an All-Star, much less for the best three years of a HOFer. Ninety-two WS for his best five consecutive means that on average, in his best five years, he wasn't legitimate all-star quality (which usually begins at 20 WS). His win shares per 162 games is a pedestrian (by HOF standards) 16.40. All those things led to Bill James putting him 29th among second basemen. I figure a guy should be in the top 20 at his position to have a good claim, though it might in some cases stretch out to 25th. Maz is well below those lines. This isn't one of the cases where James cooked the books against Maz the player, either. In fact, if James cooked the books on Maz, it was in his favor. Maz is 33rd in career win shares among the 100 second basemen in James' latest historical abstract--and that's his best finish in the four win share categories James uses. In his top three seasons, his total of 64 is 58th, in his best five consecutive, his total is 59th, and in win shares per 162 games, he's 75th. His career win share mark is 448th best all-time per the Win Share book.

Additionally, none of the ten most similar players as determined by baseball-reference.com are in the Hall.

Those numbers aren't good for anyone's case to be considered worthy of any Hall of Fame. Personally, I think the weak bat drains too much out of his value to even put him in the gray area of HOFers.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Joe Carter and Jim Rice

Looking at Win Shares, Carter finishes significantly below Jim Rice in all the following categories: career WS (JC 240- JR 282), Top 3 seasons (JC ttl 78, JR ttl 92), Best 5 consecutive (JC 109-JR 127) and WS/162 (JC 17.76-JR 21.86). Rice finished 30th, 26th, 33rd and 49th respectively in those four categories among the 100 LF listed in Bill James latest Historical Abstract. I don't think Rice's performance is HOF worthy, which means to me we shouldn't even be talking about Joe Carter. Rice's 282 career win shares is 213th best all-time per the Win Shares book, and since we have less HOFers than that who played in the majors (the Negro Leaguers are in as well), that leaves him outside. He needs something to move him up, and his peak win share marks don't do it.

Rice did faily well in the inks, HOF standards, all-star appearances and MVP voting, but I don't think they're enough to put him over the top in spite of his weaknesses in win shares, especially since those numbers benefit to a significant degree from his playing in a quite favorable home park. As further proof, please look at his career road splits: 1148 hits, 174 HR, and an avg/obp/slg of 277/330/459. Is a nothing great defensive left fielder with a .277 average, 2296 hits and 348 HR (and a mediocre at best OBP) your idea of a HOFer? It sure isn't mine.


However, should you insist on considering Joe Carter, let's see where in that list of 100 LFs Carter finishes in those four categories, shall we? Career win shares: 43rd; top 3 seasons in win shares: tied for 52nd, omitting Elmer E. Smith's inflated 19th century pitching year; best 5 consecutive years in win shares: tied for 50th; and win shares per 162 games: 87th. His best finish is 43rd, two others are in the low fifties and the last one well into the eighties. That's just among the left fielders, and we've only got 220 or so players currently in the Hall. Carter's career win share total is 349th all-time, and nothing he did overcomes that

Some more nails in the coffin that should contain Carter's HOF case:
only two of the ten most similar to him according to baseball-reference.com are in the HOF, and during Carter's prime (1986-94) Carter had an OPS of .797. (Bonds, McGriff and Griffey were over .900.) Among players with more than 3300 plate appearances in those years, Carter ranks 50th. That's awfully low for a HOF-caliber leftfielder/DH at his peak compared to his peers. Let's also look at some other measures:

Black ink: 9 points, 234th best all time
Gray ink: 103 points, 203rd best all time
HOF standards 31.2, 254th best all time

None of the above three categories deal with defense, which is not something Carter was renowned for. He's right at the edge of the total number of players in the HOF, including pitchers and Negro Leaguers. The limit for MLB positon players should currently be no higher than 150, and for MLB pitchers about 70. He'd have to significantly improve his standing based on his defense, which would be quite difficult for any left fielder/DH.

Another consideration for Carter is that only two of the ten most similar players to him as determined by baseball-reference.com are in the Hall, Cepeda and Stargell. They're sixth and ninth respectively, and are both distinctly superior players IMO.

Jim Albright