.... I would like to review the candidacy of a Hall of Fame-worthy player who is on the ballot for the seventh time. With that in mind, ladies and gentlemen of the selection jury, I hereby introduce Exhibit One in The Case For Bert Blyleven.
CAREER STRIKEOUTS
Code:
1 Nolan Ryan………... 5714
2 Steve Carlton…….. 4136
3 Roger Clemens….. 4099
4 Randy Johnson….. 3871
5 Bert Blyleven……. 3701
6 Tom Seaver………... 3640
7 Don Sutton………... 3574
8 Gaylord Perry……. 3534
9 Walter Johnson…. 3509
10 Phil Niekro……….... 3342
11 Ferguson Jenkins 3192
12 Bob Gibson………... 3117
Every pitcher with 3,000 or more strikeouts who is eligible is in the Hall of Fame except for one pitcher. His name? Well, for those of you who may be color blind, the lone exception is none other than Rik Aalbert Blyleven. As shown, the Holland-born righthander ranks fifth all time in strikeouts. Other than Mr. Blyleven, there are only two pitchers--Roger Clemens and Randy Johnson--on the above list who are not in the Hall, and both will surely be inducted on the first ballot. Bert Blyleven, Only The Lonely.
Maybe strikeouts are not all that important as a standalone measure, you say? Well, you may be right. The object of the game is to shut down the opposing team no matter how you get them out, correct? With that understanding, ladies and gentlemen, I hereby present Exhibit Two for your consideration.
CAREER SHUTOUTS
Code:
1 Walter Johnson….. 110
2 Grover Alexander.. 90
3 Christy Mathewson 79
4 Cy Young………….... 76
5 Eddie Plank……….... 69
6 Warren Spahn…….. 63
T7 Tom Seaver………... 61
T7 Nolan Ryan……….... 61
9 Bert Blyleven…….. 60
10 Don Sutton………... 58
11 Ed Walsh………….... 57
T12 Three Finger Brown 56
T12 Pud Galvin………..... 56
T12 Bob Gibson……….... 56
15 Steve Carlton……. 55
T16 Jim Palmer………..... 53
T16 Gaylord Perry……. 53
18 Juan Marichal……. 52
T19 Rube Waddell……... 50
T19 Vic Willis…………..... 50
Bert Blyleven ranks ninth in career shutouts. Other than Mr. Blyleven, every pitcher with 50 or more shutouts has been enshrined in Cooperstown. Nineteen pitchers on the inside, one pitcher on the outside. Bert Blyleven, Only the Lonely.
Still not convinced, ehh? Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce into evidence Exhibit Three. Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) represent the number of runs that a pitcher saved his team versus what an average pitcher would have allowed, adjusted for ballpark effects.
ALL-TIME RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE
Code:
1 Cy Young………….... 813
2 Kid Nichols……….... 678
3 Lefty Grove………... 668
4 Walter Johnson….. 643
5 Roger Clemens….. 613
6 Greg Maddux…….... 540
7 Grover Alexander.. 524
8 John Clarkson……. 508
9 Randy Johnson…... 461
10 Pedro Martinez….. 453
11 Christy Mathewson 405
12 Tom Seaver………... 404
13 Tim Keefe…………... 377
14 Amos Rusie……….... 370
15 Carl Hubbell………... 355
16 Bob Gibson……….... 350
17 Bert Blyleven…….. 344
18 Phil Niekro………..... 322
19 Whitey Ford……….. 321
20 Warren Spahn…….. 319
Every pitcher in the top 20 who is eligible for the Hall is in with one exception. And who might that pitcher be? Once again, it's none other than the Only The Lonely man himself, Bert Blyleven.
What about ERA? Well, thank you for asking. Ladies and gentlemen, I take this opportunity to introduce Exhibit Four.
ERA VS. LEAGUE AVERAGE (MINIMUM 4,000 IP)
Code:
Place Name……………....... Diff Player League
1 Roger Clemens….. 1.20 3.19 4.39
2 Walter Johnson….. 1.07 2.17 3.24
3 Kid Nichols……….... 0.94 2.95 3.89
4 Cy Young………….... 0.92 2.63 3.54
5 Grover Alexander.. 0.83 2.56 3.39
6 Warren Spahn…….. 0.81 3.08 3.89
7 Tom Seaver………... 0.79 2.86 3.66
8 Christy Mathewson 0.78 2.13 2.91
9 John Clarkson……... 0.73 2.81 3.54
10 Tim Keefe…………... 0.71 2.62 3.34
11 Ted Lyons………..... 0.68 3.67 4.34
12 Red Faber………..... 0.64 3.15 3.79
13 Old Hoss Radbourn 0.59 2.67 3.26
14 Red Ruffing……….... 0.56 3.80 4.36
15 Gaylord Perry……. 0.53 3.11 3.63
16 Eddie Plank……….... 0.53 2.35 2.88
17 Nolan Ryan……….... 0.53 3.19 3.72
18 Robin Roberts……. 0.51 3.40 3.91
19 Bert Blyleven…….. 0.50 3.31 3.81
20 Eppa Rixey……….... 0.50 3.15 3.64
Nineteen of the top 20 pitchers have had their day in upstate New York or, in the case of Clemens, have already made reservations. The omission this time? You got it. Bert Blyleven, Only The Lonely.
For those of you who still need more information, I would like to present Exhibit Five. Neutral Wins is a statistic that projects the number of victories the pitcher would have if he was given average run support, considering his total number of decisions.
NEUTRAL WINS
Code:
1 Cy Young………….... 533
2 Walter Johnson…... 470
3 Grover Alexander... 374
4 Kid Nichols……….... 373
5 Christy Mathewson 361
6 Pud Galvin………..... 359
7 Warren Spahn…….. 353
8 Tim Keefe…………... 346
9 Phil Niekro………..... 337
T10 Gaylord Perry……... 336
T10 Nolan Ryan……….... 336
12 Steve Carlton…….. 327
13 John Clarkson……... 323
14 Bert Blyleven……... 313
15 Tom Seaver………... 312
16 Eddie Plank………... 311
17 Don Sutton………... 310
18 Roger Clemens….... 306
19 Old Hoss Radbourn 300
20 Lefty Grove………... 298
Please excuse Mr. Blyleven for feeling a little paranoid at this time but, as you can see, he is the only pitcher in the top 20 in Neutral Wins who is eligible for baseball's highest honor but has not yet been voted in. Only The Lonely.
Think the above stat is a little too theoretical? Well, members of the selection committee, let's take a look at Exhibit Six. Actual wins. Nice and simple, just the way you guys and gals like it.
CAREER WINS
Code:
1 Cy Young………...... 511
2 Walter Johnson…... 417
3T Christy Mathewson 373
3T Grover Alexander... 373
5 Warren Spahn…….. 363
6 Kid Nichols……….... 361
7 Pud Galvin………..... 360
8 Tim Keefe…………... 341
9 Steve Carlton…….. 329
10 John Clarkson……... 328
11 Eddie Plank……….... 326
T12 Nolan Ryan……….... 324
T12 Don Sutton………... 324
14 Phil Niekro………..... 318
15 Gaylord Perry……... 314
16 Tom Seaver………... 311
17 Roger Clemens….... 310
T18 Mickey Welch……... 309
T18 Old Hoss Radbourn 309
T20 Early Wynn……….... 300
T20 Lefty Grove………... 300
22 Greg Maddux…….... 289
23 Tommy John…….... 288
24 Bert Blyleven……... 287
25 Robin Roberts……... 286
T26 Ferguson Jenkins... 284
Although the number of wins is not the end all for evaluating pitchers, I am proud to say that our man once again finds himself in the company of nothing but Hall of Famers with just one other exception. Furthermore, there are dozens of pitchers who have won fewer games, yet you have found reason to induct each and every one of them.
Who would some of those fortunate souls be? None other than famous oldtimers such as Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown (239), Bob Feller (266), Carl Hubbell (253), and Joe McGinnity (246); greats from the '50s and '60s like Jim Bunning (224), Don Drysdale (209), Whitey Ford (236), Bob Gibson (251), Sandy Koufax (165), Juan Marichal (243), and Robin Roberts (286); and more decorated contemporaries over the first half of Mr. Blyleven's tenure such as Catfish Hunter (224), Ferguson Jenkins (284), and Jim Palmer (268).
Speaking of Mr. Blyleven's peers, I thought it might be instructive to compare how he ranks in RSAA over the course of his career. I would like to offer Exhibit Seven for your review.
RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE, 1970-1992
Code:
1 Bert Blyleven……... 344
2 Roger Clemens….... 329
3 Tom Seaver………... 321
4 Jim Palmer………..... 289
5T Dave Stieb……….... 241
5T Phil Niekro………..... 241
7 Steve Carlton…….. 239
8 Gaylord Perry……... 228
9 Nolan Ryan……….... 215
10 Dennis Eckersley... 204
Not only is Mr. Blyleven number one but he is the only pitcher on this list who has come before you and not been so honored. I recognize that the time period chosen favors our man because it conveniently covers his entire career. Nonetheless, if you run the same screen ten times using the various career lengths for each of the above moundsmen, the pitcher ranked first in every sort is in the HOF or will be in the HOF (in the case of Clemens, who is #1 over his playing days as well as Dave Stieb's career).
Want a "cleaner" period like the decade of the 1970s instead? Ladies and gentlemen, I provide you with Exhibit Eight.
RUNS SAVED ABOVE AVERAGE, 1970-1979
Code:
1 Tom Seaver………... 281
2 Jim Palmer………..... 280
3 Bert Blyleven……... 261
4 Phil Niekro………..... 248
5 Gaylord Perry……... 237
6 Ferguson Jenkins 195
7 Steve Carlton…….. 176
The top seven are all in the HOF except for the fellow with the initials "BB", who ranks third. The two hurlers ahead of him--Tom Seaver and Palmer--are multiple Cy Young Award winners and first-ballot HOF inductees. Bert Blyleven. Only The Lonely (Know How I Feel).
Bert Blyleven also ranks in the top ten for the decade of the 1980s, and he is second for the ten-year period (1975-1984) overlapping these two decades--behind only Steve Carlton, who is also a multiple Cy Young Award winner and first-ballot HOF inductee.
In addition to the above qualifications, Mr. Blyleven meets or exceeds three of the four Hall of Fame measures established by Bill James, one of baseball's foremost analysts. Only 21 pitchers in the history of the game have met all four standards, including just nine who began their careers after World War II. I present Exhibit Nine for your consideration.
Black Ink: Pitching - 16 (128) (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 239 (22) (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 50.0 (36) (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 120.5 (65) (Likely HOFer > 100)
Overall Rank in parentheses.
Furthermore, as displayed in Exhibit Ten, eight of the most similar pitchers according to Baseball-Reference.com (one of the most widely used and highly respected baseball statistical sources) are in the Hall of Fame.
SIMILAR PITCHERS
Don Sutton (914) *
Gaylord Perry (909) *
Ferguson Jenkins (890) *
Tommy John (889)
Robin Roberts (876) *
Tom Seaver (864) *
Jim Kaat (854)
Early Wynn (844) *
Phil Niekro (844) *
Steve Carlton (840) *
*Denotes Hall of Famer.
The two pitchers not in the HOF are most similar to Mr. Blyleven in terms of their number of wins, but neither ranks among the top 20 in any of the other Exhibits that I have presented before you. Seven of the remaining eight show up not only on the career wins table alongside my client but at least once more. As such, I would contend that the following seven pitchers (Hall of Famers all) are the most statistically comparable to Mr. Blyleven:
Steve Carlton
Ferguson Jenkins
Phil Niekro
Gaylord Perry
Robin Roberts
Tom Seaver
Don Sutton
Herewith is Exhibit Eleven in The Case For Bert Blyleven.
Code:
Name………… IP H ER BB SO HR ERA W L pct
Blyleven……… 4970 4632 1830 1322 3701 430 3.31 287 250 0.534
Group average 5032 4577 1800 1379 3396 448 3.22 316 239 0.569
As detailed, Bert Blyleven's stats are roughly in line with the average of these seven pitchers across the board with the possible exception of wins, losses, and winning percentage. However, as shown in Exhibit Twelve below, his rate stats for the three areas controlled by the pitcher are actually better than this exclusive group.
Code:
Name………… BB/9 SO/9 HR/9
Blyleven……… 2.36 6.70 0.78
Group average 2.47 6.07 0.80
How was it possible that Mr. Blyleven could have better rate stats yet have 22 fewer wins and five more losses than the group average? Well, ladies and gentlemen, I submit to you that the difference in my client's won-loss record was nothing more than being a victim of poor support. For example, do you realize that his team scored just 18 runs in his 15 losses in 1971? In fact, I would argue that Mr. Blyleven is one of the "unluckiest" pitchers in the history of baseball.
To compare "apples to apples", I hereby offer Exhibit Thirteen, which reveals the won-loss records of Mr. Blyleven and the group average by equalizing the run support for my client and the same seven starters, all of whom are among the elite group of pitchers in the Hall of Fame.
Code:
Name………… NW NL pct
Blyleven……… 313 224 0.583
Group average 316 239 0.569
Neutral Wins and Losses prove my point that the only differences in Bert Blyleven's actual won-loss totals and winning percentage are a function of run support (or lack thereof). Recall that Mr. Blyleven broke in with the Minnesota Twins after the franchise's hey day in the second half of the 1960s, then played for the Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, the Twins again, and the California Angels.
Sources: Sabermetric Baseball Encyclopedia and Baseball-Reference.com
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Originally Posted by csh19792001
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