Albright's musings

[jalbright]

Japanese homers have risen relative to the majors despite larger Japanese parks and a major league trend toward more homer friendly parks. However, where players in Japan used to walk less in Oh's day than in the majors, they now walk more. This is probably a function of changes in pitcher usage. When a guy's pitching 400 innings in a 130 game season, he'll be better off if he can get balls in play quickly.

There's no question there's a huge difference in home run data. Even today, there's about 60% as many homers per AB in the majors as in Japan. Adjusting for the shorter Japanese season might bring the number up to 70% of NPB seasonal totals or so, but that's it. In Oh's day, it was closer to 52% of homers per AB in the majors, and might have gotten as close as 65% of actual NPB seasonal totals, as seasons then were usually 130 games, and they've been around 140 lately. So the differences in the numbers are not pronounced. Japanese players have seemingly closed the gap in HR rates to a small degree despite factors which should have increased the gap--though it's hard to quantify how much.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

The question posed wants us to pick between the Negro Leagues and the Japanese Leagues at their peaks. I've got to go with the Negro Leagues. They produced even more top talent than Japan did at its best in that category in the 1960's. I'd say the lower level players are quite comparable.

Let's look at the top players in Japan of the 1960's: Oh, Nagashima, Nomura, Harimoto and Inao and Kaneda toward the end of his career. They're all top notch guys in my opinion. But they don't match up well against Josh Gibson (blows away Nomura), Dandridge (at least good competition for Nagashima), Paige (at least a good matchup for Kaneda), Buck Leonard (Oh beats him, but not nearly by as much as Gibson destroys Nomura), Wells (Japan has never had a comparable middle infielder) and the guys who eventually made the majors plus some other lesser stars to overtake the lesser stars Japan can offer. Also, the Negro Leagues were more consistent in producing players at this level than Japan.

A key fact is Japan has largely been ignored until Nomo. The stats, while better kept and organized, haven't been translated to English and made generally available until the past five years or so. Beyond that, there's a group of Americans who care deeply about the injustices heaped upon the Negro Leaguers while there's no similar base of support for Japanese players. Also, the Japanese players may not have been given just treatment by the majors, but Japanese players were reasonably well paid in Japan.

I might add that there's been more researchers (at least writing in English) engaged in research on Negro League ball than there have been for Japan. Unfortunately, I don't have much company, while by comparison there are at least seven or eight heavily published people doing work on the Negro Leagues I can think of right off the top of my head.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Jim,

You mentioned the 1960s but the Negro Leaguers you mention played mostly in the 1920-30s. I guess I should have been more detailed in my questions. Basically, I'm asking if the Negro Leagues before 1947 were better than the Japanese Leagues of the 1960s and beyond? By this I mean not only the elite players but overall league strength. Was the average Negro League player of the say the 1930s better than the average Japanese player of the 1960s?

Pre 1947, I'd take the Negro Leaguers hands down over their Japanese contemporaries, which is supported by how some Negro League touring teams did against Japanese competition (see the above post for one example). Japanese baseball improved after WW II and probably hit their peak in the 1960's. The Japanese stars of that time could compete with a Negro League all-star team, but I just can't see their stars besting a blackball all-star team of 1935-1945. That's what I was trying to convey.

Another way of looking at it is how would the best Japanese players since they organized their professional players into the NPB in 1936 compare to the best of the Negro Leagues? At first base, Oh is a clear choice over Leonard. At catcher, the Negro Leagues' second catcher IMO is Louis Santop, and he's a decent match for Katsuya Nomura. Third base would be a real tussle between Shigeo Nagashima and Ray Dandridge. Ray has the better average but Nagashima has more power. Nagashima might have had better plate discipline, so I'll go with him in a squeaker. I'll put Torriente (who's not in Cooperstown, but belongs IMO) up against Harimoto, and Torriente is a clear winner. His defense and power were significantly better. I'll put Turkey Stearnes up against Koji Yamamoto. Yamamoto has the defense, but Turkey had better power. I also think Turkey would have hit better for average. Advantage: Stearnes. Yutaka Fukumoto gets to face fellow speedster Cool Papa Bell. They're both fast and play great defense. I think Bell has him in power and average, while Fukumoto has an edge in plate discipline. Edge: Bell. We'll match up Ichiro with the Negro league version of a guy with a similarly split career, Monte Irvin. If Ichiro is as durable as I think he will prove to be, I think that and his averages will beat out Irvin's power and walks--but it will be close. Ochiai is a fine one, but when he's matched with another guy Cooperstown should give recognition to in Mule Suttles, I'll go with the Mule. We've given a matchup for every Japanese position player, and it would be close, but I'd probably go with the Negro Leaguers--and that's without considering the Negro Leaguer position players I haven't mentioned: Martin Dihigo, Biz Mackey, Josh Gibson, Oscar Charleston, Pop Lloyd, Willie Wells, Dobie Moore, John Beckwith, and Jud Wilson. Those players would improve the Negro League lineup quite a bit and give it more depth. Particularly of note is the fact the Negro Leaguers have at least four guys who could excel in middle infield spots in Lloyd, Moore, Wells and Dihigo while the Japanese have no comparable middle infielders. I deliberately left Judy Johnson out of the list, as I have serious questions as to his HOF worthiness. I'd put all the other Negro League players I've mentioned in Cooperstown.

Can the Japanese close the gap with pitching? I'll match Paige against Kaneda, which would be a real dogfight. I'll match Cannonball Redding against Victor Starffin, and we'll get another real battle. Yet a third close matchup is Kazuhisa Inao versus Smoky Joe Williams. The Japanese may be a little ahead in pitching so far, but not by nearly as much as their positional players are behind. I'd take Willie Foster over Akira Bessho and Bullet Joe Rogan over Shigeru Sugishita. I think I'd take Yutaka Enatsu over Hilton Smith, but Leon Day over Tetsuya Yoneda. Hideo Fujimoto versus Rube Foster would be a good match, but I think I'd go with Fujimoto. The Negro Leaguers can then call on Dihigo and Ray Brown as well. I'll give the Japanese a very slight nod, but that's all.

So even if we put the best of the best of each league up against each other, I have to go with the Negro Leaguers. They have middle infielders and better power for certain. The Japanese team's only big edge might be in plate discipline, but I can't see that outweighing the Negro League team's advantages.

As for overall league strength, I think that the edge goes to the Negro Leaguers only because thay had greater top talent. I think the "typical starters" and reserves on both sides at their best would be quite comparable.

That's my take on it, anyway.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Speaking only for myself, I am quite aware of the limitations of the evidence regarding Negro Leaguers. That is why I will not support someone from the Negro Leagues (or even Japan, with its far better statistical record) that I see as a borderline "in" case. In such a case, if my assumptions are just a little rosy, I would be putting in an unworthy candidate. I do not wish to do that. Further, when I am in doubt about an issue on a Negro leaguer, I tend to err on the side of caution.

For me, the hardest groups to assess are pre 1870 players and pre 20th century Negro Leaguers. Negro leaguers from the early 1900's through 1920 who played in Cuba (where there are decent records) help reduce the problem up to the beginning of league play around 1920, but not much. The Negro Leagues with league play up through integration are a significant improvement, but still flawed. The Japanese players come next, with a good record base but still outsiders. Then come players from before the 60 foot 6 inch pitching distance, among other rules that subtly changed the game. Only when we finally get to major leaguers under the modern rules can we comfortably put close cases under the microscope to accurately guage whether they belong in or out.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

In the course of this thread, and particularly in the next few posts, I use several sources I want to ensure I credit. One is the poll on Negro League greats taken from members of the Negro League Museum. I relied on William McNeil's report on the results of that poll on page 196 of Cool Papas and Double Duties, page 196.

I've also used the stats on Negro Leaguers versus major league pitchers in exhibition games given in post #4 in this thread: http://baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=16566

Also, see post #41 for the source of the Baseball Think Factory projections.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Estimated Win Shares from Baseball Think Factory for Negro Leaguers already in the BBF HOF

The prime person doing this over this goes by the name Chris_Cobb. His work is very stat oriented, but well thought out IMO. His last posts (he sometimes tweaks them several times to get what he considers the most accurate possible results) or those he indicates general agreement with are the ones I prefer when available.

Unfortunately, he doesn't do it for all of even our HOF candidates. I'll indicate that. Most of them he does, and that gave me enough info to think I can reasonably place the Negro Leaguers all in context to their major league peers. Of course, the Negro League data these estimates are based on is incomplete, and it is possible that with more info, these assessments will change.

Anyway, here goes:

Satchel Paige: no estimated win shares or on career major league stats. I placed him as the top Negro League pitcher, considering he pitched effectively in the majors the last six years of his professional career when he was in his forties. I placed him just below his contemporary of Lefty Grove.. The reason I went with that is the differing use patterns from deadball days, and Grove is at the top of the post 1920 era pitchers.

Martin Dihigo no estimated win shares nor on career major league stats. Guys with his diverse skills as a pitcher and hitter drive the guys making these estimates nuts. They don't think he would have pitched in the majors, which may well be true. They suggest Al Kaline as a comp, which is again reasonable. I gave him a slight boost up from Kaline for his pitching to bump him up over Paul Waner.

Oscar Charleston again, no estimated win shares nor an estimate of career major league stats. He has to go below Mays since his peak wasn't as long and he's otherwise a rather comparable player. Except for the switch hitting, so is Mantle--but Mantle's injuries shortenend his career. I have to put Oscar ahead of him, and that's what I did. Is credited with 54 Black Ink points in the Negro Leagues and 174 Gray Ink points

Smokey Joe Williams 492 career WS, 154 for best 5 consecutive, best three of 35, 34, and 33. Estimated at 377-300 record in 5100 IP. For me, that's enough to put him in between Lefty Grove and Warren Spahn.

Buck Leonard: 366 career WS, 155 for best 5 consecutive, best three of 32, 32, and 32. Seen as 308/417/476 for his career if in the majors. Credited with 22 Black Ink points and 105 Gray Ink points. Estimated at 2255 career hits. I put him in between McCovey and Greenberg among first basemen.

Josh Gibson: 468 career WS, 169 for best 5 consecutive, best three of 41, 40 and 34. Seen as a 327/431/595 hitter in the majors for his career. Estimated at 2164 career hits. Basically, we're talking Mike Piazza with above average defensive skills for a catcher with considerably more power than Piazza's significant ablities in that regard. That's the best catcher ever in my book.

Cool Papa Bell: 419 career WS, 116 for best 5 consecutive, best three of 26, 24 and 24. Seen as 297/365/382 for his career if in the majors. Estimated at 2846 career hits. I rate him right around Clemente in value.

Ray Dandridge: No estimated win shares or career major league stats. Was a .350 -.360 range hitter for his career in the Negro leagues, and the standard discount is about 6% of average. that puts him in the high .330s. He's reputedly excellent at everything but power, and had a long career. The first third baseman I felt comfortable putting him ahead of was Frank Baker, who had little power, wasn't reknowned for his glove work, and missed a couple of whole seasons in a shorter career--and didn't hit as high as .330 for his career. Yes, Baker did it in a deadball context, but my gut says Dandridge wins that comparison.

Turkey Stearnes: His estimated stats for the majors are 326/393/537 with 3190 career hits. The suggestion was this is similar to Mel Ott, a contemporary, and I agree. Stearnes also scored 51 Black Ink points and 178 Gray Ink points in the Negro Leagues.

Pop Lloyd: His estimated average in the majors is .292, with 3411 career hits. He gets 490 career WS, 150 for his best 5 consecutive, and a best three of 37, 33 and 33. That's enough for me to place him second among shortstops behind Honus Wagner.

Cristobal Torriente All we have is estimated win shares, which are 379 for his career, 160 for his best 5 consecutive and a best 3 of 38, 36, and 36. I put him between Reggie Jackson and Al Simmons in value.

I'll post the post-1920 batting and pitching stats I put in another post for these players below. I've put it in terms of 550 AB for hitters and 275 IP for pitchers.

 Name  	      games     GS  	CG  	IP  	hits  	runs  	ER  	ERA  	K  	BB  	WP  	HB  	SV  	W  	 L  	 Pct   name
Bill Foster 	43 	30 	24 	275.0 	225 	103 	73 	2.40 	150 	76 	2 	5 	3 	21 	10 	.675   Bill Foster
Satchel Paige 	48 	36 	20 	275.0 	215 	101 	62 	2.02 	225 	46 	3 	3 	2 	19 	11 	.628   Satchel Paige

Name         games GS  CG      IP   hits  runs  ER  ERA     K   BB  WP  HB  SV  W    L   Pct   Name
Martin Dihigo  43    29   23  275.0  247  122   89  2.92  137  62    2    3    2  20  15  .578  Martin Dihigo

Name           AB  runs  hits  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg    obp  slg     Name
Martin Dihigo  550  114  169  24   7  25    89  56    8    16  .307  .371  .511  Martin Dihigo

Name                 AB runs  hits 2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg  obp  slg  Name
Cool Papa Bell      550  118  175  25   8   6   38  54   7  23  .317  .379  .425  Cool Papa Bell
Oscar Charleston----550  127  192  34  11  23   91  74  13  33  .348  .425  .576  Oscar Charleston
Ray Dandridge-------550   81  174  22   9   2   41  29   2  12  .315  .351  .400  Ray Dandridge
Josh Gibson         550  138  197  32  12  34  128  75   2   7  .359  .435  .648  Josh Gibson
Buck Leonard        550  132  176  27  10  22  103  96  12   9  .320  .421  .527  Buck Leonard
Pop Lloyd           550   99  189  28   6   6   53  46  15  19  .343  .394  .450  Pop Lloyd
Turkey Stearnes     550  112  190  32  16  29  113  61   7  20  .345  .411  .618  Turkey Stearnes
Willie Wells        550  123  175  33   8  19    7  66  11  19  .319  .391  .510  Willie Wells

[jalbright]

Monte Irvin--ELECTED BBF HOF OCTOBER 2005

People look at his MLB career of eight years but forget they start when he's 30 and that he broke his ankle quite badly when he was 33. It's easy to forget he lost about 10 years to the color line and WWII.

His Negro League stats in Shadows of Glory, translated to 550 AB format are as follows:

AB runs  hits 2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg  obp  slg  
550  117  197  32   8  22  137  53   9  14  .358  .415  .564

We know that his Negro League stats wouldn't have transferred over precisely, so what would his career have looked like with those 10 years? The best answer I can come up with starts with a APBA simulation of the franchise All-Stars of the Negro leagues prepared by David Lawrence. In the set I'm talking about, he takes the entire career of the player with the franchise he's carded with and translates it to an "average season" for the franchise. Since Irvin spent virtually all his time with the Newark Eagles, that helps. His method also eliminates problems caused by 30 to 50 game data samples. I then took those numbers from the Negro Leagues and translated them to major league numbers by mulitplying runs and RBI by 9 (.9 times 10) and walks all types of hits by 9.5 (.95 times 10) to account for the difference in leagues. The other stats were simply mutliplied by 10. There are no park adjustments in this projection, however. I'll then add that projected data to his actual MLB stats.

Here's what we get:

G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	avg	obp	slg
2144	8159	1506	2565	506	88	289	1703	1013	190	0.314	0.390	0.504

Compare those numbers prorated to 1500 AB to what he did in 1950-1953 in the majors. His marks are as follows, despite losing 100 games in 1952 to a badly broken ankle:

……………….......	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB	avg	obp	slg
Projection	1500	277	472	93	16	53	320	190	35	0.314	0.390	0.504
1950-53 MLB	1502	237	471	61	22	64	305	206	17	0.314	0.381	0.511

Those numbers match up quite well with the projection I gave for him. I think it is quite reasonable to think that 10 seasons before this stretch would help him hold the line against his decline phase, which lasted a mere 4 seasons. The biggest difference I see is that he lost his speed (I'd suggest due to a combination of age and the ankle injury.) In fact, I understand he reinjured the ankle badly in a collision at home plate on August 9, 1953. This could well account for his dropoff thereafter.


I then used a database that ends with the 1998 season to come up with the most similar players using Similarity Scores. The top ten, in order from most similar to least similar are:


Goose Goslin in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Al Simmons in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Harry Heilmann in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Dave Parker in BBFHOF
Joe Medwick in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Bob Johnson in neither
Jim Rice in Cooperstown
George Brett in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Roberto Clemente in BBFHOF and Cooperstown
Billy Williams in BBFHOF and Cooperstown

Eight are in Cooperstown, and 8 in the BBF HOF. Only one, Bob Johnson, makes neither Hall, and he's only the 6th most similar.


Note: In the Negro Leagues, he won 2 home run titles, per William McNeil on page 32 of Cool Papas and Double Duties

Biography from Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 408:

He signed with the Newark Eagles in 1937, playing under another name to protect his amateur standing, since he was in college. Irvin was a power hitter who also hit for high average, [winning] two batting titles in the Negro National League. . . . [He spearheaded the Eagles' 1946 victory] in the Negro World Series. . . .

A versatile player, he played both infield and outfield with the Eagles. . . . In 1939, he hit .403 with good power, and followed with strong seasons of .377 and .400. {A contract hassle led him to go to Mexico in 1942, where he led in average (.397) and home runs (20), finished second in RBIs (79) in only 63 games, and won the MVP award. {Then . . . he was drafted . . . spending three years in military service. . . .

After his three-year hiatus from baseball, Irvin felt a need for additional winter ball to work back into his prewar condition, and resumed pley in Latin America. Irvin [played on champions in both Cuba and Puerto Rico}. He posted a lifetime .355 average in Puerto Rico.. . .

Before the war Irvin had been the Negro League owner's choice for the player to be the player to break the color line [but because of the war, Jackie Robinson became the one to do so].

Also of note are the following: 1) Elected to Cooperstown; 2) 19th place in the SABR poll ranking Negro League greats, and 3) the third best Negro League left-fielder in the opinion of Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract.

Anyone interested in his career in the majors can conuslt baseballlibrary.com. and/or baseball-reference.com.

[jalbright]

Ray Dandridge according to Bill James Elected BBF HOF

From page 184 of the most recent Historical Abstract:

Really a shortstop in terms of ability, but played third base in some of his best years because he was a teammate of Devil Wells. . . . Fast, an amazing third baseman, and a .350-.370 hitter, he was signed by the Giants when he was ...nearly 36, and was the best player in the American Association the second half of 1949 (hitting .363) and all of 1950 (when he won the league's MVP Award), but the Giants (who needed a third baseman) wouldn't bring him up. Durable, consistent; did everything exceptionally well except that he wasn't a power hitter.

His Negro League stats in 550 AB form from Shadows of Glory:

 AB runs  hits 2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg  obp  slg  
550   81  174  22   9   2   41  29   2  12  .315  .351  .400

[jalbright]

Ray Brown ELECTED BBF HOF

The only truly notable accolades I found for him is before he was inducted to Cooperstown is the fact he finished among the top six pitchers in the 1993 poll of Negro League Museum members. He just was recently elected into the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit".

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him to a major league record of 270-190, which translates to 238 Fibonacci Win Points. They seem to think he would have had 320-330 career win shares, but they didn't break that total down. An earlier estimate put him at 299 career win shares, 134 for his best five consecutive, and a best three of 43, 43 and 30. I think that earlier, more conservative evaluation places him between Joe McGinnity (260 career WS, 162 best 5 consecutive, top 3 of 42, 40 and 35 and 260 Fibonacci) and Early Wynn (308 career, 110 best 5 consecutive, top 3 of 28, 25 and 24 and 221 Fibonacci). I think the projection is credible, especially when you look at what he did everywhere he played (Source: page 96 of Cool Papas and Double Duties by William McNeil):

League.................	Won	Lost	Pct
Negro…………………....	146	55	0.726
Mexican………………...	51	36	0.586
Cuban Winter…………	46	20	0.697
Puerto Rican Winter….	29	8	0.784
Total……………………...	272	119	0.696

All the above-mentioned leagues had at least some top level talent. Quite a record, even if in the Negro Leagues he played for the Homestead Grays at their dominating best.

According to Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 124:

The Homestead Grays ace had a sinker, slider and a fine fastball, but his curveball was his best pitch. So confident was Ray in all of his pitches that he would throw a curve with a 3-0 count . . . . Later in his career, he developed an effective knuckleball, and he had good control of all his pitchers. . . . [He had] a nineteen-year career . . . [highlighted by] a perfect game in a seven inning contest against the Chicago American Giants in 1945.

William McNeil in Cool Papas and Double Duties, page 96 adds:

He was a dangerous man at the plate, rapping the ball at a .316 clip. . . .
He pitched the Grays to nine consecutive Negro National League pennants between 1937 and 1945.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Bullet Joe Rogan Elected BBF HOF

Unfortunately, another pitcher/hitter who confounds at least the willingness of the Baseball Think Factory guys to project his data. So I'm stuck with the subjective stuff with Negro League data again. He can point to a lot of support in that realm, though. Consider the following:
1) named a first team pitcher in the Pittsburgh Courier poll selecting Negro League greats;
2) named to the Baseball Think Factory Hall of Merit;
3) inducted into Cooperstown;
4) placed 11th in the SABR poll ranking Negro League greats; and
5) selected among the top six pitchers in Negro League history in a poll of Negro League Museum members.

He was also named the best Negro League pitcher by Bill James for three seasons: 1922, 1924 (tie), and 1925 (tie).

Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Baseball Leagues has a nice writeup on him. A sizeable excerpt from it follows:

An outstanding pitcher with a tremendous fastball, a fine curve and good control, "Bullet" Rogan was a star for the Kansas City Monarchs [ed. one of the greatest of all the Negro League franchises, if not the greatest]. . . The right-hander was a smart pitcher who used a no-windup delivery, a sidearm motion, and always kept the ball down. In addition to his basic pitches, he included a forkball, palmball and spitter in his repertory. A durable workhorse . . . for a decade [who was] rarely . . . releived, this versatile player's value to his team was inestimable. He was also a superb fielder and a dangerous hitter with good power.

He had strong wrists and used a heavy bat. . . . [W]hen not performing on the mound, he played in the outfield to keep his big bat in the lineup. . . [H]e often batted in the cleanup position [ed. for a great team, no less!] and was credited with [the] league high [in] homers in 1922. He consistently hit over .300, compiling averages of .351, .416, .412, .366, .314, .330, .353, .341 and .311 for the years 1922-1930. On the mound [remember, in typically 70-90 game seasons] he registered seasons of 13-6, 12-8, 16-5, 15-2, 12-4, 15-6, and 9-3 for the first seven of those years. . .

[He joined] the Army in the fall of 1911. He remained in the Army through 1919, captaining baseball teams [with the limited opportunities for an Afro-American to make a living as a baseball player, he found a unique way to do it, as did Dobie Moore]. . . In exhibitions against major leaguers, Rogan is credited with a .329 average.

Rogan didn't just join the Army, he played for the 25th Infantry Wreckers. The Wreckers of that time were a heck of a team. They often faced Pacific League teams, and won the lion's share of those games. In 1913, the only team to beat them in 21 games was made up of major leaguers and Pacific League all-stars. They achieved such renown that the Spalding Company offered to sponsor a tour of the team, but the Army declined.

William McNeil on page 205 of Cool Papas and Double Duties added this:

[H]e pitched in the California Winter League with great success. [Ed. this league was one of the first integrated leagues in the continental US in the 20th century and could boast many major league players] Box scores uncovered to date credit him with an excellent 42-14 pitching record a .362 batting average and 30 doubles and 19 homers for every 550 at-bats. Bullet Joe could do it all

His Negro League stats, from Shadows of Glory, expressed in 550 AB and 275 IP form:

games GS  CG      IP   H  runs  ER  ERA..  K   BB..  WP..  HB  SV  W    L   Pct  
40    29   25  275.0  294  112  79   2.59  162  69    5    2    3  22  10  .699 

AB  runs  hits  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg    obp  slg     
550   99  186  28  16  12    68  66    15    28  .338  .409  .515

[jalbright]

Mule Suttles--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

This man earned numerous accolades, including:
1) placed 14th in the SABR poll ranking Negro League greats;
2) selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit";
3) selected as the second first baseman in a 1993 poll of members of the Negro League Museum;
4) selected as the 43rd best player of all time by Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract;
5) selected by Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract as the second best ever left fielder among Negro Leaguers (to Turkey Stearnes),
6) named by 70% of Negro League veterans polled by William McNeil for Cool Papas and Double Duties as worthy of Cooperstown; and
7) named by 88% of the Negro League historians polled by McNeil for CPDD as worthy of Cooperstown.
8) inducted to Cooperstown in 2006

The guys over at Baseball Think Factory peg him as a career .300 hitter with 30-35 HR in a typical year, a .360 career OBP and .530 career slugging. They project him to get 2791 hits. The combination of that average, that many career hits and slugging is a sure recipe for Cooperstown. Their research shows him with 56 Black Ink points in the Negro Leagues and 145 Gray Ink points in those leagues. They also project him at 370 career WS, 148 best five consecutive and top three of 36, 35 and 29, while Stargell had career win shares at 352, 126 WS in his best five consecutive years, and a best three of 44, 31 and 28. Really, except for the fact the Mule was a righty and Willie a lefty, they're a heck of a match.

Those numbers are well under the marks he racked up in the 79 at bats he had against major league pitchers. He got 31 hits for a .392 average--and it was a very loud .392, with 11 homers!

I should point out the projection points to a man well worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. No major leaguer with 2500 career hits and a .500 or better slugging average has failed to be inducted to Cooperstown after getting his chance with the voters. Further, only one man with more than the Mule's projected 2791 career hits has not been enshrined--Harold Baines with 2866. Baines was a fine player, but not in the Mule's class (289/359/465). We could carry it to win shares, where Baines has 307 career, 108 for best five consecutive and a top three of 25, 24 and 22. Again, good, but nearly as good as the Mule.

Furthermore, the latest Bill James Historical Abstract lists him as tied for the greatest player of 1926, and as the greatest player of 1931 and 1941. He might well have won more if Josh Gibson hadn't taken five such titles and Buck Leonard two in that period.

From Cool Papas and Double Duties by William McNeil, pp. 115-117

Suttles . . .[was] 6 ' 4", and packed a solid 230 pounds on his rugged frame. Fortunately for his opponents, he didn't have a mean bone in his body. He was a gentle giant, a good-natured fellow who enjoyed life. . .

Mule Suttles brought excitement to the game of baseball, especially to the home fans, who would chant "kick, Mule, kick" whenever he came to bat in a critical situation. And . . . often. . . Mule would respond by "kicking" one out of the park. He was a good low-ball hitter and a good curve ball hitter, who loved nothing more than to extend his arms and cut loose with an all-or nothing swing. . . .

Suttles went on to play 18 years in the Negro Leagues, finishing with a .341 battiong average, the fifth-highest average in Negro league history for players with more than 2000 at-bats. . . . He also hit 237 home runs [ed. most in Negro League history], an average of 40 homers for every 550 at-bats. And he didn't stop there. He pounded major-leaue pitchers for a .341 average and 10 home runs in 170 plate appearances in exhibition games. . .

Suttles played in the California Winter Leagues [ed the first integrated league in North America in the 20th century--many major leaguers played there, too] several years, where he literally destroyed major league and high minor league pitching. Partial statistics credit him with a .378 bating average and 64 home runs in just 450 at-bats, [which] would equate to 77 home runs for every 550 at-bats

Folks, that is one great player, one who clearly deserves a spot in the BBF HOF.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Frank Grant

Unfortunately, the Baseball Think Factory guys don't have any tremendous help in the data end of things, at least in terms of projections. I will give a biographical sketch drawn from page 331 of Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, and then add a post #44 on this page http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ll_stars/P100/ by a person calling himself "favre" at Baseball Think Factory who presents what I regard as a persuasive argument on Grant's behalf. Cooperstown seems to agree with favre, and is inducting Grant in 2006.

Biography

This second baseman was one of the most outstanding black professional ballplayers of the 19th century. Exceptionally quick afield and with a strong arm, he was [often compared to Fred Dunlap and Bid McPhee, both of whom he bested in hitting when all three were young players in the International League at the same time] . . . During his . . . career, the middle infielder played with the top black clubs of the era, including the Cuban Giants, New York Gorhams and the Philadelphia Giants. He also played with many teams in organized baseball [in places where the application of the color line was not enforced]. He was a consistent .300 hitter with power, a fast baserunner [and] an outstanding fielder.

Now the promised argument by "favre":

I want to re-state the arguments for Grant's induction into the Hall of Merit. I say "re-state" because I didn't originate them. I just want to present them in what is perhaps a new way, including objections (which also did not originate with me). I don?t necessarily agree with the objections, but I want to list them fairly. If you feel I have not done so, please write your own.

1. The statistics we have for Frank Grant are terrific. You can find them on MattB's excellent post (#122 on the Negro League stars thread). We have info for 458 games. In 150 games, he averaged .337 BA, 130 runs, 210 hits, 40 doubles, 10 triples, 10 home runs, 50 stolen bases, all while playing second or third base.

Objection: We have no real context for these statistics, so it?s hard to compare them with the achievements of other players. Was he really better than Cupid Childs? Hard to say without some kind of statistical context.

2. He played for 18 years, which is longer than many other players on the ballot. Longevity is one indicator of greatness, though not a sole or even necessary one.

Objection: While he may have played 18 years of professional ball, this does not mean he would have played for the same length of time in the NL had he been allowed to do so. We can?t just assume he?s Bid McPhee. Longevity arguments are not as important to voters who value peak.

3. The statistics we do have are from the beginning of Grant's career, possibly at age 18, more likely at age 21. They do suggest a trajectory for a star player; the fact he played for eighteen years seems to confirm that.

Objection: There were a number of very young players putting up outstanding numbers in professional ball during this period. Too much of Grant's career is shrouded in mystery to be certain that he was a comparable player to McPhee, Childs, etc.

4. Subjective evidence. One Buffalo writer said that Grant was the best player the city had ever seen, surpassing Pud Galvin, Dan Brouthers, Jim O'Rourke, and Hoss Radbourn.. Sol White suggests that Grant was not only one of the best African-American players, but one of the best players of the nineteenth century.

Objection: Subjective evidence is, by its own definition, subjective. White should be lauded for his history, but he certainly wanted to present African-American players in the best possible light.

5. There seems to be a consensus that Grant was the best African-American player before at least 1900. Fans of Sol White have recently challenged that, but White himself gave Grant that title. Given that there were a number of African-Americans were playing ball, it seems probable that the best one would be one of the top thirty or so players of the 19th Century and, therefore, a worthy HoM candidate.

Objection: The population of northern blacks, while growing in the 1890s, was still not a high percentage of the population. While everyone in this group wants to give African-american players their due, this argument smacks of tokenism. White may have been the best player anyway.

6. The 1880s-90s did not produce a large number of outstanding second basemen. Stay with me in this argument for a second. While Bid McPhee and Hardy Richardson are worthy HoM?rs, and while Cupid Childs deserves consideration, they weren?t so good that it seems unlikely that Grant was their peer. If Grant had been a first baseman, we?d be comparing him to Cap Anson and Dan Brouthers and Roger Connor?those are HIGH standards of comparison. I don't know about you, but I would be shaking my head and going, "No, no, it's unlikely that he was as good as ABC. That means he was, at best, the fourth-best first baseman of the era." The best second baseman of the period is McPhee; great player, but not so great that he likely leaves Grant in the dust.

Objection: I doubt many of you like this argument much. So what if Grant didn?t play against Nap Lajoie (well, actually he did, at the end of his career) or Rogers Hornsby. That doesn't make Grant a great player.

Maybe you can think of other arguments, but as far as I can tell, that sums it up. None of the arguments produce a smoking gun that says "Grant was a great player"; all of the arguments are circumstantial.

However, notice that there are SIX of them. There are six circumstantial arguments that suggest Grant was a great player. All of them have reasonable objections, but you have to object to six arguments.

Now let?s show the evidence that Grant was NOT a great player:

None.

Think about it. There is NO evidence we have that suggests Grant was not a great player. We have statistical evidence, for example, that shows Tommy McCarthy was not a great player, despite the opinion of some HoF Veteran?s Committee. We DON'T have the same evidence for Grant (if there is some out there, please show me). We know: 1. The statistics we have for Grant are terrific 2. He played for a very long time 3. His peers suggested he was a great player 4. He played at a position where there was not a significant number of outstanding players from 1885-1895. The evidence we do have does not raise a red flag against Grant.

Now, there is still a good argument for the case against Frank Grant: we don't have enough statistical evidence. The prime of his career is simply unknown to us. Like the evidence in favor Frank Grant, it's circumstantial. The argument doesn?t prove that Grant WASN'T a great player. It just says we can't really prove that he was, and that ultimately the burden of proof is on Grant to show that he is worthy of indcution to the HoM.

Well, we certainly don't have a lot of statistical evidence proving Grant's greatness, though we do have some. Still, to dismiss Grant as a great player, you have to say: 1. the statistics we have mean nothing 2. the fact that he played for eighteen years means nothing 3. the fact that he tore up the IL at age 21 means nothing 4. the opinions of people who saw him play mean nothing 5. the fact that he was likely the best African-American player of the 19th Century means nothing 6. the fact that he played at a position where there was not a lot of outstanding players in the era means nothing.

You might be able to do that. I can't, particularly since the reason we don't have much statistical evidence on Grant is that he was excluded from play on the basis of his skin color.

Favre's argument seems to have helped over at Baseball Think Factory, where Grant is now a member of their "Hall of Merit"

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Home Run Johnson

First of all, when we talk about Hall of Famers, some of the key things we’re looking for are: 1) long careers, 2) all-stars, 3) MVP and/or Cy Young Award winners, 4) contributors to championship teams, 5) career leaders, and 6) single season leaders in key categories. It doesn’t matter what league you’re talking about, these issues are ones you start with in such a discussion. We probably want to make the accomplishments in leagues outside the majors a little more impressive than it would take in the majors to include guys in the Hall of Fame in order to account for the fact these other leagues were rarely if ever of the same quality as the majors. Nevertheless, these largely objective points of reference provide an excellent starting point. The connection to champion teams is especially important in the Negro Leagues, as the players were often paid a portion of the gate at games (including barnstorming contests), and the best teams drew the most people to games and thus could pay better, setting up a cycle whereby the best players tended to be drawn to the best teams.

Another pre 1920 Negro Leaguer, and therefore one I have to rely solely on the more subjective records to justify. Pages 434-435 of Riley's Biogrpahical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues is the source of this biography:

In a career that started before the turn of the century, Johnson was a right-handed slugger in the deadball era . . . . [H]e starred with some of the most outstanding clubs of the era, including the 1903 Cuba X-Giiants, the 1905 Philadelphia Giants, and the 1909 Brooklyn Royal Giants before joining . . . Rube Foster's Lincoln Giants in 1913 . . . .[S]hortstop was his best position, [but when teamed with Pop Lloyd] Johnson used his versatility to shift across to the keystone sack. . . .

The star infielder was also a winner in Cuba, captaining the Havana Reds to a winter league championship, and became the first American to win a batting title on the island. During his five years there he averaged .319 . . . .

Johnson was a natural hitter, and his confidence, patient pitch selection and superior batting eye enabled him to hit all kinds of pitching. A smart batter, he was cool under pressure. [From 1910 to 1913 he recorded averages against all oppositon of .397, .374, .413 and .371--and this was in a deadball game]. . . . A line-drive hitter, Johnson placed an emphasis on making contact rather than swinging for the fences and, playing in the deadball era, his power was comparable to that of the Athletics' Frank Baker.

Other facts:
Those averages from 1910 to 1913 documented in the Riley quote came from ages 36 to 39.
Johnson was on the team John Holway names as the best black team of 1896, the Page Fence Giants
He also was on two Cuban Winter League champs (captaining the 1908-09 team).
He had a 21 year Negro League career as a middle infielder and played professionally until he was 58
Holway didn't start his all-star teams until Johnson was 36, but he got one at age 39 (1913), when he won a batting title among Eastern Negro League teams
He led the 1905 champion Philadelphia Giants in batting average.
He led the 1908-1909 Cuban champs in games played, hits, doubles and average, finishing only two points behind the batting average champ of the league.
He led the 1911-1912 Cuban champs in hits and had a .410 average for them
He played in Cuba at ages 33-38 and led in hits twice and finished second in batting average twice, hitting .319 overall while
playing middle infield spots, twice for champion clubs.
The Baseball Think Factory guys inducted him into their "Hall of Merit".
In 1910, at age 36, he faced the pitchers from the World Series champion Philadelphia A's in Cuba and went 11 for 24 (.458).

In summary, he had a long career as a middle infielder for many championship clubs, even late in his career. Despite the sparse documentation for much of his career, it can be shown he performed quite well for a long time. I think there's enough to support his case for the HOF and the BBF HOF.

[jalbright]

Willie Wells--ELECTED AUGUST 2005

He has plenty of support among observers, including:
1) enshrinement in Cooperstown;
2) named second team shortstop (to Pop Lloyd) in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
3) 11th in SABR poll of Negro League greats;
4) selected by Bill James as the second best shortstop in Negro League history (again to Pop Lloyd) in his latest Historical Abstract;
5) selected by Bill James as the 86th best player of all time in his latest Historical Abstract;
6) in the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit". There they consider him a close match in overall contributions to Luke Appling (more about that later); and
7) selected as the first team shortstop in a 1993 poll of Negro League Museum members.

The Baseball Think Factory projections see him as a 294/371/425 career hitter with 2839 career hits. There is only one retired player with more hits not in the HOF, Harold Baines at 2866, and he was an outfielder/DH, not a shortstop. The top shortstop in hits not in the Hall is Bill Dahlen, with 2457. I think that leaves little question he belongs in the Hall. But where to rank him?

Looking at the projected win shares may help. The Baseball Think Factory guys have him with 397 for his career, 131 for his best 5 consecutive, and top three of 29, 28 and 28. He's darned close to Appling (378; 141; 40, 29, 29), but I think just a tad below him. I would put him above the major leaguer I have immediately below Appling, George Davis (398;119;31, 29, 28).

He was a winner, part of 5 pennant winners in the Negro Leagues and 2 Cuban league champs. He also won an MVP award in Cuba. In 1942 he was "identified as one of the top five players in the [Negro Leagues} when prospects to go to the major leagues were discussed" Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 827.

He tattooed the major league pitchers he got to face in exhibitions, going 46 for 115 with 6 homers for a .369 average.

Just to round out his case, here's some biographical info from William McNeil's Cool Papas and Double Duties, pages 208-209:

Wells was an outstanding defensive shortstop with wide range, a sure glove, and an accurate throwing arm. He offset a lack of strenght in his throwing arm with quick reflexes and a fast release . . .

[H]e was more than a glove, however. He was one of the top hitters in the league, with a career batting average of .328 . . . [who] hit the ball with authority. He led the league in home runs in 1929 . . . .

Wells also starred in other leagues . . . [I]n Mexico . . . he hit .323 . . . He spent the winter months playing ball either in the Cuban Winter League or the California Winter League. He played seven years in Cuba, compiling a batting average of .320, . . . [leading] the league twice in home runs. . . . He also tormented white pitchers [many of them major leaguers] in California for eight years, batting .301.

Here are his Negro League stats from Shadows of Glory, expressed in 550 AB form:

AB runs  hits 2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  Sac  SB  avg  obp  slg  
550  123  175  33   8  19    7  66  11  19  .319  .391  .510

[jalbright]

Louis Santop ELECTED BBF HOF SEPTEMBER 2005

He has plenty of support from observers:

1) Bill James names him the second best catcher in the Negro Leagues in his latest Historical Abstract;
2) Named as a third team catcher in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
3) came in 22nd in the SABR poll attempting to rank Negro League luminaries;
4) selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit"; and
5) 76% of Negro League historians polled for Cool Papas and Double Duties named him as worthy of Cooperstown.
6) elected to Cooperstown in 2006.

The records we have for him against major leaguers in exhibitions indicate he went 18/56 (.310) with no homers.

The Baseball Think Factory guys went straight to win shares for him, so I will have to follow that lead. They tab him at 299 career WS, 133 best 5 consecutive, and a top 3 of 36, 27 and 25. Those win share numbers are comparable to Dickey (314; 132; 33, 27, 27) and Mickey Cochrane (275; 142; 31, 30, 28), but I'd place Santop a hair behind both.

Bill James said this about Santop on page 180 of his latest Historical Abstract:

A huge left-handed power hitter who was a superstar in the Walter Johnson era. A genial, easy-going man . . . immensely popular with the fans. Good defensive skills . . . a good arm and, at 240 pounds, a world beater at blocking the plate.

Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 695, also describes him as the "biggest drawing card in black baseball" when he was in his prime.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Jud Wilson ELECTED BBF HOF

He has a solid array of accolades to point to:
1) He's been selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit";
2) He finished 26th in the SABR poll which attempted to rank Negro League luminaries;
3) he was named as both the third team first baseman and the third-team third baseman in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
4) he was named as a Hall of Fame caliber player by 80% ot the Negro League historians polled for Cool Papas and Double Duties; and
5) Elected to Cooperstown in 2006.

The data we have on Wilson against major leaguers in exhibitons shows 31 hits in 86 at bats with 3 homers, a .360 average.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project Wilson as a career 336/431/447 hitter with 2845 career hits. That projection puts him behind only one man who has become eligible for Cooperstown who is not in: Harold Baines, with 2866 career hits. Baines was good, but not a comparable quality hitter 289/359/465 for his career, especially in terms of on-base ability. Another way of looking at it is there's only one eligible man with 2700 or more hits and a career average over .300 who isn't in Cooperstown. That one man is Al Oliver, a career 303/348/451 hitter with 2743 career hits. Oliver also loses out to the Wilson projection due to inferior OBP.

The BTF guys peg Wilson at 378 career win shares, a best five of 140, and top three of 34, 31 and 28. As a guy who favors career value, I'd put him above the excellent Ron Santo (322; 162; and 37, 36, and 32). If you are one who values peak over career, I'd say you should put him over Brooks Robinson (355; 130; 33, 27 and 25).

From pages 120-121 of William McNeil's Cool Papas and Double Duties:

Wilson . . . packed a solid 185 pounds on a squat 5' 8" body. He had massive shoulders and a huge chest that tapered down to a small waist, and short, bowed legs . . .

He led the . . . . Eastern Colored League in batting in his sophomore year, crushing the ball to the tune of .464. He followed with seasons averages of .394, .397, .358, .412, .375, .346 and .371 . . . [H]e [then] played two years with the Grays, hitting .362 and .370, before jumping to the Philadelphia Stars where he played for six years. All he hit in Philly was .354, .412, .309, .380 and .319. He added three more batting championships [in the two years he hit .412 and the one he hit .380}. . . . He also led the league in doubles, triples and home runs, once each.

When he retired from the Negro Leagues, he left behind a .354 lifetime batting average, the highest average for any player with more than 2000 at bats . . . .

Jud Wilson was primarily a hitter, but he could also handle himself in the field and on the bases. He had good speed and was an aggressive baserunner . . . . On defense, he played first base and third base, both acceptably. He was not flashy, and he was not graceful, but somehow he got the job done. At third base, he was noted for knocking balls down with his chest, then picking them up and throwing the runner out.

Jud Wilson made the annual trek south in the winter to play in the Cuban Winter League. He spent six . . . winters there and almost destroyed the pitching staffs [in that league]. He raked opposing pitchers for averages of .430, .333, .424, .397 and .363 . . . . In all, Wilson won two batting championships in Cuba (the two seasons over .400] . . . . He also led the league in runs scored twice, triples once, home runs once, and stolen bases once. His career batting average in Cuba was .372, which is the highest batting average in Cuban baseball history . . . .

He also played in the California Winter League against major league players during the winter of 1930-31 and he hit .469 in fifteen games. And he played one year in the Puerto Rican Winter League, where he hit .404 as a 45-year-old graybeard.

Overall, Jud Wilson hit .354 in the Negro Leagues with 30 doubles, 6 triples and 13 home runs [per 550 AB]. . . In Cuba, he averaged .372 with 27 doubles, 19 triples and 13 home runs [per 550 AB].

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Cannonball Dick Redding ELECTED BBF HOF

The accolades for him include:
1) Finishing on the second team in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
2) Finishing 21st in the SABR poll ranking Negro League luminaries; and
3) Receiving mention as HOF worthy by 80% of the Negro League historians polled for Cool Papas and Double Duties.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him for a 230-177 record, which yields 183 Fibonacci win points. Their projection goes on to calculate he earned 270 career win shares with a best 5 consecutive of 120 and a top 3 of 40, 33 and 27. I'd say that puts him between Hal Newhouser (264 career, 157 best 5 consecutive, top three of 38, 35 and 33 and 177 Fibonacci) and Ted Lyons (311 career, 110 best 5 consecutive, top 3 of 30, 26 and 23 and 168 Fibonacci).

William McNeil in Cool Papas and Double Duties describes Redding as being 6' 4" and weighing 210. He also indicates Redding utilized a "deceptive back to the batter windup that kept batters from digging in." page 108.

From Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, pages 654 -655:

One of the great pitchers of black baseball, Dick Redding's overpowering speed earned [him] . . . the nickname "Cannonball" . . . . During his prime years in the decade of the 1910s, he maintained a position among the top pitchers in black baseball . . . . Redding was credited with 30 no-hitters against all levels of competition . . . .

A hard worker with exceptional stamina, in his prime years he often pitched doubleheaders two or three days in succession. Redding usually finished what he started . . . . Although generally calm and collected on the mound, especially when protecting a lead, he sometimes lost his composure when opponents jumped off to a quick start from errors by his teammates. . . .

The advent of World War I interrupted Redding's career while still at its peak. . . . [H]e relied almost exclusively on his fastball and would not hesitate to use it to know a batter down to assert his dominion.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
David Lawrence (a Negro League historian) accumulated data on Negro League players for an APBA set of franchise all stars. Redding's data is for the New York Lincoln Giants, who he played for in his prime of 1911-1916. Lawrence's data have Redding winning 78% of his games against other top Negro League competition in those years with 8 strikeouts per nine innings in an era in which it was nearly seen as a mortal sin to strike out and a 4.0 strikeout to walk ratio. He was durable as well and earned a spot as a second team pitcher on the Pittsburgh Courier poll in 1952, a poll whose one notable flaw is its favoritism of players that the polled fans would have seen more recently than a comparative old timer like Redding.

I'll add to this a fine analysis by AG2004, which I have edited slightly:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

There were some contemporaries who said he was among the best pitchers in baseball, which would put him among the best players in baseball.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

During his peak years, he was.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

He wasn’t the best pitcher in baseball at his peak – both Alexander and Johnson were better. However, he was the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues during the late 1910s.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

The question is not truly applicable in Redding’s case; there were no organized leagues for him to play in during his peak years.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Chris Cobb credits Redding with 267 career win shares, with his three peak seasons at 40, 33, 27. Since Redding was in the military during parts of the 1918 and 1919 seasons, we’ll take 1915-17 and 1920-21 as representing Redding’s best five consecutive seasons. That would give us 140 WS during those five years. (Cobb would give Redding about 18 WS for war credit. That would lower Redding’s peak to about 130-132 WS).

Career WS, contemporary P: Eppa Rixey 315, Red Faber 292, Burleigh Grimes 286, REDDING 267+war credit, Walker Cooper 266, Waite Hoyt 262, Carl Mays 256, Stan Coveleski 245, Babe Adams 243, Dazzy Vance 241, Dolf Luque 241. This is generally Cooperstown territory, with Coveleski and Vance also in the BBFHOF.

Top three seasons, contemporary P: Three Finger Brown 105, REDDING 100, Dazzy Vance 94, Red Faber 93, Carl Mays 92, Burleigh Grimes 91, Stan Coveleski 90, Smokey Joe Wood 90. Redding is in very good shape.

Top five seasons, contemporary P: Stan Coveleski 142, Carl Mays 140, REDDING 140, Wilbur Cooper 133, Shocker 128, Vaughn 128. Redding right at the cutoff line if we ignore the partial seasons of 1918 and 1919; he would fall between Cooper and Shocker if we give compensation for his time in the military, though.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

I don’t know. The 114 lifetime ERA+ Cobb would award him is a little low.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

The organized Negro Leagues didn’t get started until the second half of his career, which means the statistics from that time capture only the decline phase of his career, and miss his peak. We have decent statistics from the 1910s, though.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

No. Just among Negro League pitchers, I would rate Mendez ahead of Redding.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Holway awards Redding with three George Stovey Awards, his Negro League equivalent to the Cy Young. A pitcher with Redding’s record would have been second in WS among AL pitchers in 1915, and second among NL pitchers in 1915, 1916, and 1917.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

By Cobb’s projections, Redding would have had four seasons that would have placed him among the top four pitchers in the NL, with another season placing him sixth. That’s a little low for pitchers. Redding would have had just two seasons among the top four pitchers in the AL, with one season at fifth and another at sixth. That’s really low.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

During his peak years, yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Not that I know of.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

All the testimonials I have seen say Redding definitely upheld those standards.

CONCLUSION: Redding looks worthy of BBFHOF.

[jalbright]

Willie Foster ELECTED BBF HOF

His list of accolades is rather impressive:
1) enshrined in Cooperstown;
2) selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit";
3) on the first team in the Pittsburgh Courier poll; and
4) finished 18th in the SABR poll ranking luminaries of the Negro Leagues.

Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract indicates Foster was the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues in three different seasons, 1927, 1931, and 1932. The Baseball Think Factory guys calculate that he earned 49 Black Ink points in the Negro Leagues and 97 Gray Ink points.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him as deserving of a 212-136 record, worth 205 Fibonacci win points. They also project him at 254 career win shares, 131 in his best 5 consecutive, and top three of 33, 28 and 27. In my opinion, those marks are deserving of a slot between Ted Lyons (311 career, 110 best 5 consecutive, top three of 30, 26 and 23 and 168 Fibonacci) and Jim Bunning (252 career, 100 best 5 consecutive, top three of 30, 27 and 26 with a Fibonacci of 163).

William McNeil on page 203 of Cool Papas and Double Duties says Willie Foster "is generally considered to be the greatest left-handed pitcher in Negro league history."

Fom Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 292:

Willie Foster was a pitching star for the Chicago American Giants for over a decade. With near-perfect control and a wide assortment of pitches, [many] delivered with the same motion, the tall left-hander was at his best when the stakes were the highest. With a crucial game to win, Willie was the kind of pitcher a manager wanted on the mound. He was a smart pitcher who knew how to get the most out of his vast repertory of pitches, which included a blazing fastball, a fast-breaking drop, a sidearm curve, and a masterful change of pace.

Foster's post 1920 statistics from Shadows of Glory, expressed in 275 IP form:

games     GS  	CG  	IP  	hits  	runs  	ER  	ERA  	K  	BB  	WP  	HB  	SV  	W  	 L  	 Pct   
43 	30 	24 	275.0 	225 	103 	73 	2.40 	150 	76 	2 	5 	3 	21 	10 	.675

[jalbright]

Leon Day

He's got some useful accolades:
1) enshrined in Cooperstown;
2) 16th in the SABR poll ranking Negro League luminaries;
3) among the top 6 pitchers in a poll of members of the Negro League Museum; and
4) 6th among all pitchers of those Negro League players and historians polled for the all-time Negro League all-star team in Cool Papas and Double Duties.

I think it is useful to note that Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract indicates Day was the best pitcher in the Negro Leagues in both 1937 and 1946, while John Holway has him the best in only one season but the folks involved in making those selections for the 2005 ESPN Baseball Encyclopedia gave him that honor three times. . I also think it useful to note he is tied with Hilton Smith as the pitcher who pitched in the most Negro League All-Star games with six.

I think Smith belongs, but I couldn't comfortably place him with the starters, so I made him a reliever. I'd put Day above Smith, but below Willie Foster. The dart board stab at a far ranking for him is halfway between Foster and the end of the queue.

William McNeil at page 205 of Cool Papas and Double Duties , Day had the sixth highest winning percentage in the Negro Leagues among pitchers (I don't know the minimum number of decisions, sorry).

From Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 223:

[A} consistently outstanding pitcher in the Negro National League during the late 1930s and 1940s, Leon Day was a heady pitcher whose money pitch was his fastball. The Newark Eagles' ace right-hander had a good curve and change of pace to complement his speed. A strikeout artist, he holds the strikeout record in the Negro National League, the Puerto Rican League, and the East-West All Star game.

Not only was Leon a great pitcher, but he was also a fast base runner . . . a good fielder [regarded as the best fielding pitcher in the league] . . . a [solid] hitter . . . and a recognized team leader (and one of the most respected and best-liked players on the club).

With the exception of catcher, the versatile athlete [fielded] every position well, and when not on the mound often started at second base, in center field or pinch hit.

Some data from Shadows of Glory, which was the product of the study of Negro Leaguers done for the 2006 Negro League vote for Cooperstown:

Please note that the data is limited to the American Negro Leagues (not Mexico or the winter leagues). I've also taken the career data and translated it to 275 IP. I used the ERA and winning percentage from the book, rather than calculating it from the data presented.

games     GS  	CG  	IP  	hits  	runs  	ER  	ERA  	K  	BB  	WP  	HB  	SV  	W  	 L  	 Pct   
44 	35 	21 	275.0 	235 	138 	91 	2.98 	154 	83 	1 	4 	3 	20 	10 	.661

[jalbright]

Pete Hill

He has some significant accolades to his credit, including:
1) Selected to the Baseball Think Factory "Hall of Merit"
2) Selected as the second team left fielder in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
3) Named by 70% of the Negro League historians who have done significant work on the pre 1920 era as worthy of a spot in the Hall of Fame (7 of 10);
4) Named MVP twice by John Holway and once by ESPN encyclopedia; and
5) Elected to Cooperstown in 2006

In the book Turkey Stearnes and the Detroit Stars, Richard Bak credits Hill with a .344 average with 9 doubles, 6 triples and 5 homers in 215 at bats in 1921 and 1922, when Hill was 41 and 42 years old! He also hit for a .307 average in Cuba. He led the Negro Leagues three times in average, led in Cuba in hits and runs twice each and average once, and in the California Winter League, he led in hits once.

The Baseball Think Factory guys compared him to Max Carey, and I'll go with that as my basis for ranking him.

From Riley's Biographical Encyclopedai of the Negro Leagues, page 381:

A left-handed batter, Hill was a great hitter, both for average and power. An amazingly consistent line-drive hitter who used the entire field and excelled in bunting for base hits, he was a superior contact hitter with a near perfect eye for the strike zone and seldom struck out. . . .[T]he first great outfielder in black baseball history. . . .

Hill was a complete ballplayer and . . . could field and run the bases as well as hit. The star center fielder was one of the fastest outfielders in the game, fielded flawlessly, and had a deadly arm. On the bases, he was a very fast, graceful runner and a good base stealer. But more than that, he . . . upset pitchers and infielders [when he was on the basepaths] like Jackie Robinson was to do . . . later. He was describes as a "restless type, always in motion, jumping back and forth, trying to draw a throw from the pitcher."

[He was part of the Cuban X-Giants when whey were dominant, then part of the Philadelphia Giants'] consecutive championships in 1905-1906. . .[He then went to the Leland Giants with Rube Foster, and in 1910, he again followed Rube, becoming part of the] cast the comprised the greatest talent in black baseball at the time . . . Hill, a smart ballplayer whose studied approach to the game made him Foster's choice as team captain . . . .[Hill outhit Pop Lloyd on that great 1910 squad, and at least arguably was its MVP].

Hill provided responsible leadership [during] his brilliant 27-year career.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Biz Mackey ELECTED BBF HOF OCTOBER 2005

He has plenty of accolades to point to:
1) Named as one of the two first team catchers in the Pittsburgh Courier poll;
2) came in second among catchers in a 1993 poll of members of the Negro League Museum;
3) finished 17th in the SABR poll ranking Negro League luminaries;
4) named the third best Negro League catcher of all time by Bill James in his latest Historical Abstract;
5) received mention as worthy of the Hall of Fame by 82% of Negro League veterans polled in Cool Papas and Double Duties;
6) received mention as worthy of the Hall of Fame by 100% of Negro League historians polled in Cool Papas and Double Duties;
7) Elected to Cooperstown in 2006.

The data provided by 2Chance on his performance against major leaguers shows Mackey getting 16 hits in 49 at bats with no homers for a .326 average.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him as a career 301/359/393 hitter with 2495 career hits. There are only 5 or 6 major league players whose primary position was catcher who got over 2000 hits. I have to fudge, because some consider Joe Torre a catcher, but I don't since he spent so much time at other positions) and Ted Simmons, Fisk, Berra, Bench and Gary Carter. Of those catchers, only Torre averaged over .285 for his career, at .297. Personally, I think Torre is a HOFer, but as a manager, not a player.

The BTF guys project him at 290 career win shares, 105 in his best five consecutive years, and a top three of 25, 23 and 20. I'll place him ahead of Bill Freehan and Charlie Bennett in my catching queue at least.

According to William McNeil in Cool Papas and Double Duties, pages 102-103:

Negro League veterans would say, "If you want to know what Biz Mackey was like [defensively] as a catcher, just watch Campanella. Campy is a clone of Mackey." . . .
Biz Mackey could play in any league. In 1924-1925 he played in the Cuban Winter Leagues and hit a solid .309. He also played at least 11 years in the Californiia Winter League, against white teams comprised of major league players, and batted .366.

From pages 502-503 in Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues:

Biz Mackey was an incredibly talented receiver who remained cool under pressure, and his defensive skills were unsurpassed in the history of black baseball. Considered the master of defense, he possessed all the tools necessary behind the plate, but gained the most acclaim for his powerful and deadly accurate throwing arm. He could snap a throw to second from a squatting position and get it there harder and with more accuracy than most catchers can standing up. Mackey['s] . . . pegs to the keystone sack were frozen ropes . . . arriving on the bag feather soft. . . .

Mackey was intelligent, had a good baseball mind, and employed a studious approach to the game. The ballpark was his classroom, and inside baseball was his subject of expertise. He relied on meticulous observation and a retentive memory to match weaknesses of opposing hitters with the strengths of his pitching staff. An expert handler of pitchers, he also studied people and could direct the temperaments of his hurlers as well as he did their repertories.

He . . . utilized good-natured banter and irrelevant conversation to try to distract a hitter and break his concentration at the plate, and was a master at "stealing" strikes from umpires by framing . . . pitches. Pitchers recognized his generalship and liked to pitch to the big, husky receiver who . . . was surprisingly agile behind the plate. This . . . coupled with his soft hands, enabled the versatile athlete to play often at shortstop, third base, or in the outfield, and although lacking noteworthy range, he proved adept at any position. He was also a smart base runner and, although not fast, pilfered his share of bases.

In his prime, the switch-hitting Mackey was [a dangerous hitter] . . . as evidenced by a .423 average . . . [in] 1923. Biz followed this campaign with averages of .337, .350, .327, .315, .327, .337, .400 and .376 for the years 1924-31.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

John Beckwith

His list of accolades is short, which I would ascribe as largely due to his prickly personality:
1) Elected to Baseball Think Factory's "Hall of Merit";
2) Second team in the Pittsburgh Courier poll in a "utility" role;
3) finished 36th in the SABR poll ranking Negro League luminaries; and
4) Elected to the BBF HOF.

Everybody agrees the man could flat out hit. In 119 at bats against major leaguers, he hit .311. The Baseball Think Factory guys project that for his career he was a 333/387/522 hitter who would have amassed 2451 hits. There's no one who hit .300 for his career while slugging .500 for his career with over 2000 career hits who has failed to make Cooperstown. Big John bests those marks easily.

The BTF guys translate those career marks to 315 career win shares, 136 in his best five consecutive seasons and a top three of 30, 28 and 27. I'd say those marks put him behind Brooks Robinson (355 career; 130 best 5 consecutive; and top three of 33, 27 and 25) and Stan Hack (318 career, 140 best 5 consecutive; and a top three of 34, 33 and 31). However, those marks easily best Pie Traynor's 271 career, 119 best five consecutive and a top three of 28, 26 and 26.

There are some other key points of evidence that I'd like to mention: John Holway named him an all-star five times in the days before a Negro League all-star game, and also named him an MVP once. In the Negro Leagues, he led in average and homers once each, and in the California Winter League, he led in homers twice.

William McNeil on page 95 of Cool Papas and Double Duties writes:

Beckwith was a big moody individual, standing 6' 3" tall and weighing in at a muscular 230 pounds, he was ready to fight at the slightest affront. he battled with his teammates, with players on other teams, and with umpires . . . . As a result, the powerful slugger moved around frequently, playing with no less tha 14 teams over a storied 23 year career . . . [Some, though] thought Beckwith's [reputation for a] bad attitude was a bum rap.

The fact he served as a manager would also seem to indicate his reputation was a bit overblown.

Riley on page 70 of his Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues says:

During his prime, Beckwith was regarded as one ot the top players by his peers, and he possessed sufficient versatility afield to play almost any position. However he did not excel [defensively] at any position.

Beckwith was amazing with a bat in his hand. Listen to this from William McNeil's Baseball's Other Stars, page 59:

His .356 career batting average, one of the highest ever recorded in the Negro Leagues, included a league leading .430 om 1930. He also captured two home run crowns in '30 and '31. Beckwith's extra base output was awesome, averaging 33 doubles, eight triples and 30 home runs for every 550 at bats [in his career].

I'll also add this by AG2004:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

During his prime, with the exception of the Harrisburg Giants years (they had Oscar Charleston), he usually was. However, he played for the Chicago American Giants, Baltimore Black Sox, Harrisburg Giants, and Homestead Grays during a five-year period in his prime.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Cobb’s projections indicate that Beckwith would have had more win shares than any major league 3B in 1923, 1924, 1925, 1929, and 1931, and would have finished second in 1921, 1922, and 1927. There were ten seasons when Beckwith’s win share projections would have ranked him higher than any AL third baseman (including 1928 and 1930). He was the best 3B in the Negro Leagues during the 1920s, and possibly the best in baseball as well.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Not really.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

He is not the best player outside the BBFHOF.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

I’m using Chris Cobb’s partially regressed figures; in Cobb’s opinion, the fully regressed projections push the value of Beckwith’s best individual seasons down too far, although they don’t affect the value of his five best consecutive seasons.

Career win shares, 3B: Tommy Leach 329, Graig Nettles 322, Ron Santo 322, BECKWITH 318, Stan Hack 318, Home Run Baker 301, Buddy Bell 299. This is generally BBFHOF territory.

Best three seasons, 3B: Stan Hack 98, Sal Bando 96, Heinie Groh 95, BECKWITH 92, Bobby Bonilla 91, Paul Molitor 89, Darrell Evans 87, Tommy Leach 87, Howard Johnson 87, Ken Boyer 86, Brooks Robinson 85, Art Devlin 85. Beckwith is in the cutoff area.

Best five consecutive seasons, 3B: Sal Bando 143, Stan Hack 140, BECKWITH 136, Paul Molitor 133, Howard Johnson 133, Bobby Bonilla 132, Ken Boyer 131, Brooks Robinson 130, Jimmie Collins 129. Again, Beckwith is in good company.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

We don’t have adequate information to answer this question. However, while he is not in Cooperstown, Beckwith is a member of the Hall of Merit.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

Beckwith may have been a disruptive influence on his teams.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

One could make the argument that he is the best 3B outside the BBFHOF. Of the players at his position with at least 290 win shares (earned or, for Negro Leaguers, MLE equivalents), Beckwith easily has the best peak.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

He had two seasons which project to 30+ win shares. Holway lists him as his Eastern MVP for 1925.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Holway lists Beckwith as an All-Star four times. However, Beckwith had nine seasons which project to 20+ win shares. Having nine such seasons is a good sign for Beckwith.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

At his prime, yes.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Not that I know of.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Beckwith once punched out teammate Bill Holland after Holland criticized him for making an error.

On the other hand, Beckwith was generally the manager of his teams from 1924 to 1942, so Bill James’ and Riley’s assessments of his character is excessively negative. He did jump from team to team very often in the 1920s, probably because he wasn’t willing to accept poor treatment or a lower salary than he thought he was worth. Al Fennar, who knew Beckwith for 25 years, admitted that Beckwith had a temper and would jump all over slackers, but would help young players who worked hard.

CONCLUSION: If Beckwith’s character were really as bad as Bill James described, then there would be an argument for leaving him out despite his record. But James got his information secondhand, and, in this case, the information he received was very poor. Beckwith belongs in the BBFHOF.

[jalbright]

Hilton Smith

His list of accolades is nice:
1) enshrined in Cooperstown;
2) among the top 6 pitchers in a 1993 poll of Negro League Museum members; and
3) 26th in the SABR poll which ranked Negro League luminaries.

He pitched in six Negro League All-Star games, which ties him for the most ever in that category with Leon Day. He is also named as the best Negro league pitcher of 1939, 1941 and 1942 in the latest Bill James Historical Abstract. John Holway and the ESPN encyclopedia also both give him three mentions as the pitcher of the year in his league. He led the Negro Leagues three times in wins, four in won/loss percentage, and 2 times in ERA. All of the above provide solid arguments for his greatness.

His career marks in the Negro Leagues per Shades of Glory translated to a 275 IP rate are as follows:

 games     GS  	CG  	IP  	hits  	runs  	ER  	ERA  	K  	BB  	WP  	HB  	SV  	W  	 L  	 Pct   
49 	28 	18 	275.0 	228 	103 	52 	1.68 	159 	33 	2 	4 	2 	24 	11 	.696

That 1.68 ERA is worth chewing on, as are the 24-11 record, .696 winning percentage, and 159/33 Ks to BB mark. Remember, those are all career averages per 275 IP--and he pitched from 1932-1948, so it isn't like he had a short career.

Then we get to the Baseball Think Factory projection: 174-123 career record, worth 153 Fibonacci win points. His win share projections are 207 for his career, a best 5 consecutive of 131 and a top three of 38, 36 and 28. The 38 and 36 win share years jump out at you, but nothing else does.

With those projected marks, it's hard to place him among the starters. I think a major problem is the relatively low number of decisions, at least in a Hall of Fame context. I believe a big reason for this is the fact he relieved Satchel Paige so often. More on that later. My resolution of the issue is to place him at the bottom of my queue of releif pitchers.

Jim Riley indicates Smith often pinch hit and played first base or in the outfield.

William McNeil's thumbnail on him at page 112 of Cool Papas and Double Duties has the follwing:

Hilton Smith is [best] known as Satchel Paige's relief man. For years, when Smith toiled for the Kansas City Monarchs, he would come into a game in the fourth or fifth inning to relieve Paige who had started. Paige was the number one drawing card in the league, and when he was scheduled to pitch, it increased attendance [dramatically]. So Satch would start about half the team's games to bring the crowd in, then leave after three or four innings . . .

The tall, slender right hander reportedly had the best curve ball in the league, and set it up with a rising fastball, a good sinker, an a change. He pitched both sidearm and overhand equally well and had good control.

Jim Albright

[jalbright]

Dobie Moore

He really doesn't have many accolades, because he only played seven years in the Negro Leagues. However, that misses the fact Moore was making a living for the excellent 25th Infantry Wreckers team from 1916, several years before he joined the Negro Leagues. Truthfully, for an Afro-American of the day, his career path represents a realistic way of making a living as a ballplayer.

The Wreckers of that time were a heck of a team. They often faced Pacific League teams, and won the lion's share of those games. In 1913, the only team to beat them in 21 games was made up of major leaguers and Pacific League all-stars. They achieved such renown that the Spalding Company offered to sponsor a tour of the team, but the Army declined.

Moore led the California Winter League in hits twice, and homers and average once each. In the Cuban Winter League, he led in hits once. In the Negro Leagues, John Holway named him an all-star in all six of his complete seasons, and he was in the top five in homers four times. It is important to remember this is from a good defensive shortstop who also hit for a high average.

The Baseball Think Factory guys project him at 252 career win shares, starting in 1917, a best five consecutive of 155 and a top three of 36, 34 and 31. I think those marks leave him behind Barry Larkin (314; 130; and 32, 31 and 30), but ahead of Vern Stephens (265; 129; and 34, 32 and 27) and Lou Boudreau (277; 135; and 34, 32 and 30).

William McNeil writes this of Moore on pages 105 and 106 of Cool Papas and Double Duties:

"Dobie" Moore was a great shortstop whose brilliant career was cut short [by injuries suffered in an unfortunate incident] . . . [The 25th Infantry team] dominated the amateur sports world during the teens. The 25th included a number of players who would eventually leave the Army to [lead the Kansas City Monarchs to Negro League championships] . . . There was pitcher Bullet Joe Rogan, first baseman Lemuel Hawkins, second baseman Bob Fagan, and outfielders Oscar "Heavy" Johnson and Hurley McNair [in addition to Moore].

Moore . . . was a sensational all-around ballplayer with a deadly bat and a trusty glove [well before going to the Monarchs] . . . After Casey Stengel played an exhibition game against the 25th in 1919, he recommended Moore and several other players to J. L. Wilkinson, owner of the Monarchs . . . .

It didn't take Dobie Moore long to be recognized in the Negro National League. In addition to playing brilliant defense, he scorched the ball at the plate, with extra-base power. . . . [The 5' 11", 230 pound slugger hit .367 in 1922 and followed that season with averages of .358, .470, .326 and .381. In 1924, he captured the batting championship with his .470 average and also took the home-run crown . . . He was the Monarch's clean-up hitter for seven years.

[With the former 25th Infantry players leading the way] the Monarchs raced to three league titles and one [Negro] World Championship between 1924 and 1926 . . .

[On May 23, 1926, Moore became involved in a domestic dispute in which he was shot in the leg by his girlfriend and jumped off terrace to escape. It's unclear whether the shot, the landing from the jump, or the combination did the damage, but the bones in his leg were shattered into six pieces (See Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues, page 566]

In any case, a magnificent baseball career ended abruptly. The cold statistics say Dobie Moore had a career batting average of .355. with 32 doubles, 14 triples and 15 home runs for every 550 at bats. He was, according to all accounts, one of the top four shortstops in Negro League history [with Lloyd, Wells and Lundy] . . . but Dobie Moore could outhit all of them [for average] and was the greatest power hitter of the four, making him the best all-around shortstop in the annals of Negro league baseball.

[jalbright]

Alejandro Oms

The Baseball Think Factory guys have estimated him as a career .330 hitter with about 2747 hits. They place him as a Hugh Duffy type outfielder. As I noted in the Jud Wilson comment, there's only one man with an average over .300 and over 2700 hits who isn't in Cooperstown, Al Oliver. Oliver has less power than the Oms projection, a lower average, and a significantly lower OBP. In short, there's good reason to prefer Oms to Oliver. They've done his Win Shares, and at 340 career, 88 for his top 3 and 140 for his best five consecutive leaves him behind Lou Brock (348, 91, 134), but ahead of Duffy (295, 90, 144). They hit that one pretty well with the Duffy comparison.

Oms' record in Cuba is most impressive:
--He played there 18 seasons (not counting a 1 AB stint in 1946 after 5 years of not playing)
--He is third in career batting average at .345
--He holds the record for the longest hitting streak, at 30 games
--He holds the record for the most consecutive seasons (8) with a batting average over .300
--He shares the record for the most seasons (11) with a batting average over .300
--He was the MVP of the 1928-1929 winter season
--He led the league in batting average 4 times, 2 of them consecutively
--He led the league in doubles three times
--He led the league in stolen bases once
--He led the league in runs scored once, and
--He led the league in hits twice.
Source: Who's Who In Cuban Baseball, page 66 by Jorge Figueredo.

Jim Riley's Biographical Encyclopedia of the Negro Leagues at page 588:

Oms was the centerfielder of the great outfield of the Eastern Colored League's Cuban Stars of the 1920s. He had exceptional range, and an accurate but not strong arm . . . . He also was a very fast base runner and a skilled base stealer but was best known for his batting ability. A left-handed batter, he . . . hit to all fields with power . . . . He began his Negro League career in 1921 and finished [in 1935] with a .332 average . . . in the United States.

He was a gentleman who controlled his temper, never arguing with an umpire. However, he did devise an unusual ploy to filter out anything he chose not to hear, pretending not to speak or understand English . . . .

A proven winner, he played on four [Cuban league] championship teams. For his remarkable diamond feats in his homeland, he was elected to the Cuban Hall of Fame in 1944.

Also, there's this to consider from AG2004:

Case to Consider: OMS, Alejandro

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No.

2. Was he the best player on his team?

Alejandro Oms was generally the best position player on the Cuban Stars (East) during the 1920s.

Oms appears to have been the best position player on his Cuban league teams in 1924/25 (Santa Clara), 26/27 (Marinao), 27/28 (champions Habana), 28/29 (champions Habana), 29/30 (Santa Clara), and 31/32 (Habana). He may have edged Pablo Mesa for title of the best position player for San Jose in 1925/26. Oms was the second-best position player for Santa Clara in 1922/23, but Charleston was the team's leader that year.

Oms may have been the third-best position player for Santa Clara in 1923/24, but Oscar Charleston and Ollie Marcelle were ahead of him, and he was competing with Moore for being third-best. In 1928/29, Oms was better than teammate Jud Wilson.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

I’ll compare Chris Cobb’s projections for Oms with where he would be had he competed in the majors. Since Cobb’s method lowers the peaks and raises the valleys for Oms, I’ll list similar outfielders season by season as well.

*1921 – 29 WS. Oms is ahead of any major league CF (Speaker has 27) and any NL outfielder.
*1922 – 31 WS. Oms leads all OFs (Speaker and Ken Williams have 30).
*1923 – 27 WS. Second among AL CFs; third among NL OFs (Roush has 28; Youngs, 25).
*1924 – 26 WS. First among NL CFs (Carey has 25). Second among AL CFs (Cobb has 27).
*1925 – 27 WS. Fourth among AL outfielders (Cobb and Speaker each have 25); second among NL OFs (Wheat has 27, Carey 26).
*1926 – 23 WS. Fourth among NL outfielders.
*1927 – 26 WS. Fifth among AL OFs and second among AL CFs (Simmons 26); fourth among NL OFs(Stephenson 27, Harper 26, Lloyd Waner 25).
*1928 – 28 WS. Second among NL OFs and first among NL CFs (Wilson 28, L. Waner 26). First among AL CFs, third among AL OFs (Combs 28, Goslin 26).
*1929 – 29 WS. Third among AL outfielders, and first among AL CFs. Fourth among NL outfielders (Ott 31, O’Doul 31, P. Waner 30, L. Waner 27).

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

Oms' teams generally weren't in close races; when they won, they won by a lot. However, when Santa Clara won the 1924 Gran Premio by 1/2 game, Oms had the third-best batting average on the team (and the top two spots were occupied by Oscar Charleston and Dobie Moore). In 1932/33, Habana and Almendares were tied for the league lead when the competition folded; Oms led Habana in batting average.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

Yes. Not only was Oms a regular in Cuba, but the various MLEs and projections indicate that Oms still could have been a major league regular through the age of 40 had it not been for the color line.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

Given his career length and peak, Oms might be the best position player outside the BBFHOF.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

Chris Cobb credits Oms with 340 win shares from documented competition; however, Oms had a few undocumented years with sugar mill teams before appearing in the Cuban Winter League at the age of 26. Thus, Oms should get credit for 370+ career win shares. Major league CFs with totals close to 370 include Joe DiMaggio 387 (without war credit), Duke Snider 352, and Max Carey 351. This is Hall of Fame territory.

Oms is credited with 140+ win shares over his five best consecutive seasons (1921-25; we have no numbers for 1919 and 1920). We have Dale Murphy 150, Earl Averill 143, Jimmy Wynn 141, OMS 140+, Cesar Cedeno 140, Richie Ashburn 137, Vada Pinson 137, and Edd Roush 136. Oms is around the cutoff area, and may be a little higher than that.

Oms comes out to 89+ win shares in his best three seasons. As noted, Chris Cobb’s projections lower how players do in this category. Major League CFs with similar totals include Larry Doby 97, Dale Murphy 97, Edd Roush 96, Fred Lynn 94, Earl Averill 93, Kirby Puckett 92, Mike Donlin 91, Vada Pinson 90, Lenny Dykstra 90, Roy Thomas 89, Andy Van Slyke 88, Clyde Milan 88, Chick Stahl 87, Ginger Beaumont 87, and Richie Ashburn 86. Oms is around the cutoff territory when we account for the problems with the projection method used.

8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

We don’t have the information available. Oms did lead the Cuban league in batting average 3 times, doubles 3 times, home runs once, and stolen bases once.

Oms is not in Cooperstown. While he is in the Hall of Merit, he was on 25 ballots when he was elected in 2006, and received only 25% of all possible points.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

There are two key components here. First, Oms’ Negro League play in the 1920s came with the Cuban Stars (East). The Cuban Stars played a majority of their games, and sometimes all of their games, on the road. Since the home teams provided the umpires, this would lower the numbers of players on the team.

Second, Oms’ first season in the Cuban League is at the age of 26; Chris Cobb’s MLE projections give him about 29 win shares that year. Oms was the star of a Santa Clara club that won a regional championship in 1920-21. According to Roberto Gonzalez Echevarria, the club drew its players from the top sugar mill and amateur teams in the area. Since playing for a sugar mill team would provide year-round employment, it might well be preferable to playing in the Cuban League in the winter and independent Black clubs in the United States for those barred from organized baseball by the color line. If Dobie Moore gets credit for playing baseball for an Army team, Oms should also get credit for playing on a top mill/industrial team. This would give Oms at least 30, and perhaps more, career win shares.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Oms could be the best CF outside the BBFHOF; he has a huge advantage in career win shares, and his five-year peak of 140 is pretty good.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

We don’t have MVP awards. Cobb projects one MVP-type-season for Oms, in 1922. However, Cobb admits his method evens out the peaks and valleys. Since Oms’ best seasons come out to 30, 29, 29, 28, 27, and 27 WS, and we don’t have projections for 1919 and 1920, Oms probably had around 30 MVP-type-seasons. That’s a very positive sign.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Cobb’s projections give Oms nine seasons of 20+ win shares. Since Oms projects to 29 WS in 1921 and 31 WS in 1922, and was playing baseball professionally in 1920 at the age of 25 (although not in any documented competition), I figure Oms had ten or eleven seasons of play at an All-Star level. Since eight is the cutoff, this is a very good sign for Oms.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Yes. A team with someone like Oms as its best player would most likely be in the pennant race most years. Cobb’s projections for 1921-29 have Oms averaging about 27-28 win shares per season, and those were the seasons between ages 26 and 34.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

Not that I know of.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Oms was called “El Caballero,” or the gentleman, by his contemporaries, and certainly upheld these standards.

CONCLUSION: When I received information on Oms' Cuban league teams, I was able to determine that, at his best, Oms was usually either the best position player on his teams or trailed only BBFHOF members/serious candidates for that honor. In all other categories, Oms' record generally meets or exceeds the standards we have set for BBFHOF membership.

When we include his play for sugar mill teams, Oms comes out to 370+ career win shares. The only major league position player with at least 370 career WS who isn’t in the BBFHOF is Rafael Palmeiro, and his record is tainted by steroid use. Oms’ five year peak of 140 win shares is also solid. Oms proved himself fully worthy of induction into the BBFHOF.

Jim Albright