Cuban Baseball Structure

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by jalbright

A) I am not waiting for anyone to "label" the quality of Cuban ball. What I want are facts like these. It would be better to match innings in the data given so we don't inadvertently distort the data one way or another by how a given player performed in one place or the other. The ERA difference is fairly substantial (15+% higher in the majors). This certainly implies that Cuban ball at the level of the data provided isn't as high on average as the majors. That doesn't mean that the best of Cuban players wouldn't be stars or even Hall of Famers. Indeed, because the cream of Cuban baseball has largely been kept in Cuba, some of Cuba's players from today and the recent past likely are of that quality. The island produced a nice proportion of such players before Castro, and I doubt that with the sports machine the communists installed that it would have completely ceased producing such talents.

I'm aware of the problems defectors face--that's why it would be nice if we could confirm our analysis of the defectors with studies of international play. But we have to dig up the evidence and once it is as complete as reasonably possible, we have to see where that evidence points us.

Jim Albright

Jim: Did you notice that Danys Baez and Livan Hernandez have a better ERA in the USA than Cuba? They did not leave their best years in Cuba. They have enjoyed their best years in the USA. So that should tell us something.
How about opponent batting average stats for every one?

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 01:13 PM

Originally Posted by Licey Fan

This are my comments posted on september 17, on the http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=33572 World Classic Baseball Thread, and I Quote:

"cubano:

Definetly Cuba has a great team... but don't count out the Dominican Rep. yet!! Even though USA is the favorite, DR is close second in the odds... I think Cuba vs. DR'd be a great matchup, but I don't think that Cuba beating us it'll be as easy as you put it...

(Sin no entiendes, preguntame, que soy dominicano, y te hablo en español)"

Cubano100%: I have been posting in what language...........French

I agree with you with that... I haven't mentioned Mexico anywhere

Did you see the thread on the quality of the leagues?? Where did I put the cuban super league?? Mexico Summer Ball's not AAA. The Only reason they're listed as so is because the Diablos Rojos de Mexico are the AAA affiliate of the Padres of San Diego... Not the whole league, but some teams of it... The other winter leagues around the caribbean are AA level... So I don't see where's the discussion...

You comments were right. I would have done the same if all Dominican players play in the Dominican and the Cubans come to the USA. This is a no brainer but some people think otherwise.

OK... so let's quote my post, and then your reply... Totally out of line

Be the judge... OK, about this:

Your arrogance is overwhelming... I'll reply to this just with the same 1st paragraph of my previous post.

I came from my country without any knowledge about professional baseball in other countries. Castro does not allow free information. You and the others have had access to free information. I decided to educate myself. You can do the same.
I sumed up my main points to you. You have stayed out wisely. You got no economy. Read the "World Almanac", please.[/SIZE] I PM you on this. Don't dream! No Latin countries have what it takes to land a team?[/SIZE]

Sorry, not all of us were born knowing everything... That said, I'll cut this discussion (from my side) right now... Good luck in the cup, any other line is just guesses that we'll never now until we see the actual matchups...

And sorry I didn't PM you, but you didn't PM me to reply to this... You can do that now if you want

I just PM you, brother. Read the bold fonts above.

If Cuba loses, I can say that our professional players did not play. In addition, Castro did not include players that may defect in the team. Others have used other excuses in the past when they have lost. So we can use our excuses too for the first time.

**jalbright** · 12-04-2005, 01:14 PM

The fact a couple of guys did better from a statistical standpoint means virtually nothing. The BA's against are less of a story than ERA. I'd just guess walk and/or power rates are up more substantially to create that 15%difference in ERA. Where available, runs are the preferred measure.

Beyond that, I've learned not to judge hitters by the conversion factors of pitchers or vice versa. For instance, if the parks are small, pitchers can gain a benefit by moving to larger major league parks. That means hitters get a double dose of bad news, though (i.e. leaving both a weaker league and smaller ballparks to go to a tougher league with bigger ballparks). The example may or may not apply to Cuba, but it illustrates the point I'm making. It is my understanding that in Cuba they use aluminum bats. Is that correct? When did it start? Certainly, that might be a factor which helps hitters in Cuba.

I'm not trying to knock Cuban ball nor build it up. I'm seeking facts and to interpret those facts as accurately as possible. So far, I haven't seen anything which disproves either your contentions or Clay Davenport's about the quality of Cuban ball.

Jim Albright

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 01:29 PM

Originally Posted by jalbright

The fact a couple of guys did better from a statistical standpoint means virtually nothing. The BA's against are less of a story than ERA. I'd just guess walk and/or power rates are up more substantially to create that 15%difference in ERA. Where available, runs are the preferred measure.

Beyond that, I've learned not to judge hitters by the conversion factors of pitchers or vice versa. For instance, if the parks are small, pitchers can gain a benefit by moving to larger major league parks. That means hitters get a double dose of bad news, though (i.e. leaving both a weaker league and smaller ballparks to go to a tougher league with bigger ballparks). The example may or may not apply to Cuba, but it illustrates the point I'm making. It is my understanding that in Cuba they use aluminum bats. Is that correct? When did it start? Certainly, that might be a factor which helps hitters in Cuba.

I'm not trying to knock Cuban ball nor build it up. I'm seeking facts and to interpret those facts as accurately as possible. So far, I haven't seen anything which disproves either your contentions or Clay Davenport's about the quality of Cuban ball.

Jim Albright

Cuba does not use aluminum bats now. Since international tournaments implemented the wooden bat, Cubans have been using it. I do not know the exact time, but I would estimate 8 years. At the begining of the revolution, we still used the wooden bats.

I want you to use your common sense. Do you believe that the Mexican Summer League is AAA? If you agree with Major League baseball, then how would you rate the Cuban National League?
All the good Mexican players are in the majors or US minor leagues. Right?

Have you checked how many Mexicans and Cubans are in the majors now? I have not, but I will.

How come so many Cuban defectors start above A ball after defecting?

I am not saying the Cuban National league is the ML, but it sure is not an A ball. The Cuban Super league is close to the majors.

We will see how the ML rate the Nicaraguan winter league. If it is above A, I will get a heart attack.

**Honus Wagner Rules** · 12-04-2005, 01:34 PM

Originally Posted by Cubano100%

Cuba does not use aluminum bats now. Since international tournaments implemented the wooden bat, Cubans have been using it. I do not know the exact time, but I would estimate 8 years. At the begining of the revolution, we still used the wooden bats.

I want you to use your common sense. Do you believe that the Mexican Summer League is AAA? If you agree with Major League baseball, then how would you rate the Cuban National League?
All the good Mexican players are in the majors or US minor leagues. Right?

Have you checked how many Mexicans and Cubans are in the majors now? I have not, but I will.

How come so many Cuban defectors start above A ball after defecting?

I am not saying the Cuban National league is the ML, but it sure is not an A ball. The Cuban Super league is close to the majors.

We will see how the ML rate the Nicaraguan winter league. If it is above A, I will get a heart attack.

This is a ridiculous statement. A four team league that plays just 30 games is not really a league. That's not enough teams or games. The Cuban Super League is essentially four all-star teams with all the top talent concentrated on four teams. What if the majors created a Super Major League with just four teams? That would be an incredible amount of talent on just four teams. But it wouldn't really be league.

**jalbright** · 12-04-2005, 05:23 PM

I am "using my common sense", cubano100%. Davenport said that after defections, the 90 game league was about AA level based upon the data he had from 2000 forward. That still leaves open the possibility it was better before that. I'm not convinced he's right, but the evidence available to me hasn't convinced me he's wrong, either. There's too little evidence to make that determination yet in my opinion.

HRW, the Cuban leagues the Negro Leaguers played in during the winter were often four team leagues. It may not be what we traditionally think of as a league, but what matters is the quality of opposition. Certainly, I would expect that four team "league" to have a higher quality of competition. The shorter schedule makes it harder to make evaluations, but if we take all the data available to us and do the best we can with it, we can clarify the picture. That's the most important thing. Let's get the evidence, evaluate it properly, and let the chips fall where they may.

I will say this: if a guy seems to have played well in the 16 team Cuban league but played very little in the 4 team league, you have to question his ability to be more than a benchwarmer/marginal starter in the majors.

Another way of looking at the issue of "leagues" is that if we require six or more teams and a balanced schedule with at least 80 games, we'd lose a lot of the data we have on the Negro Leagues. League schedules were rarely over 90 games in order to allow teams to barnstorm to meet the bottom line--and some teams blew off league games for more lucrative barnstorming opportunities. Thus, schedules rarely wound up being balanced. So I'd be very careful about the restrictions required to consider a group of teams playing each other with some idea of a champion emerging from them a "league".

Jim Albright

**Honus Wagner Rules** · 12-04-2005, 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by jalbright

I am "using my common sense", cubano100%. Davenport said that after defections, the 90 game league was about AA level based upon the data he had from 2000 forward. That still leaves open the possibility it was better before that. I'm not convinced he's right, but the evidence available to me hasn't convinced me he's wrong, either. There's too little evidence to make that determination yet in my opinion.

HRW, the Cuban leagues the Negro Leaguers played in during the winter were often four team leagues. It may not be what we traditionally think of as a league, but what matters is the quality of opposition. Certainly, I would expect that four team "league" to have a higher quality of competition. The shorter schedule makes it harder to make evaluations, but if we take all the data available to us and do the best we can with it, we can clarify the picture. That's the most important thing. Let's get the evidence, evaluate it properly, and let the chips fall where they may.

I will say this: if a guy seems to have played well in the 16 team Cuban league but played very little in the 4 team league, you have to question his ability to be more than a benchwarmer/marginal starter in the majors.

Another way of looking at the issue of "leagues" is that if we require six or more teams and a balanced schedule with at least 80 games, we'd lose a lot of the data we have on the Negro Leagues. League schedules were rarely over 90 games in order to allow teams to barnstorm to meet the bottom line--and some teams blew off league games for more lucrative barnstorming opportunities. Thus, schedules rarely wound up being balanced. So I'd be very careful about the restrictions required to consider a group of teams playing each other with some idea of a champion emerging from them a "league".

Jim Albright

Jim,

However the situation that the Negro Leaguers had doesn't apply to the Cuban Super League. The Cuban Super League is playing a very short schedule by design. They are not losing games because they are out barnstorming. There are many issues that come up in a four team team that would make it very difficult to determine how good a player is. I brought this up in another thread and no one commented on it. Let's try a thought experiment. Let's say the major leagues contracted immediately to just four teams. Only the 100 best players were on those teams. What kind of statistics would a player on one of these teams generate? Let's take Albert Pujols for an example. How wound he do in such a league? Would Pujols hit .332/416/.621, his career numbers? I highly doubt that because every pitcher he is facing would be an all-star caliber pitcher. Given the high concentration of top talent his offensive numbers would suffer. But this would also apply to the pitchers as well. They's be facing great hitters in every AB. So their numbers would suffer as well. It's my belief that all the numbers would tend to be pulled down toward league averages. Most of the hitters would be .260-.270 hitters and most of the pitcthers would probably have 4.00+ ERAs. I'm not sure how I would test this theory but it would be fun to find out.

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 08:47 PM

Originally Posted by jalbright

I am "using my common sense", cubano100%. Davenport said that after defections, the 90 game league was about AA level based upon the data he had from 2000 forward. That still leaves open the possibility it was better before that. I'm not convinced he's right, but the evidence available to me hasn't convinced me he's wrong, either. There's too little evidence to make that determination yet in my opinion.

Jim Albright

Davenport suggested the Cuban National League is A not AA. I think that is to low. Again, if the Mexican Summer League is rated AAA by MLB and all the best Mexican players do not play in Mexico (they are in the US), the Cuban League should be a little bit higher than A.

In 2005, there were 11 players from Cuba in A league. I have doubts about one of those players nationality, but I will assume he is Cuban and not from Spain. 4 were selected in the 2005 draft. The draft is in June and many teams have their rosters set for their A, AA, AAA teams. Mael Rodriguez is injured. He used to throw 100 and 101 mph back home. He could not pass 88 mph in the workouts. Arizona drafted him and placed him in A ball. If he is healthy, there is no way he would be in A ball. He would be in the majors. Zaidel Beltran left Cuba with Yuniesky Betancourt. He came after the season began and was placed in A ball.

There were 6 in AA ball in 2005. Kendry Morales should be playing in the majors. The Angels usually manage their players very well. The Angels want him to get used to the USA first and not to put pressure on him right away. That is why they still have Darin Erstad playing even though Casey Kotchman and Super Kendry are knocking the door. Juan Muniz spent at least 2 years in Brazil getting his paperwork. Though he is not a top prospect even when he was younger. Yobal Duenas should not be there. Because he came old, he is there. Hansel Izquierdo saw action with the Marlins in the past. He almost threw a no hit no run in Mexico 2 weeks ago for los Mayos de Novojoa. Here is the link, in Spanish though.

http://www.mayosbeisbol.com/

There were 10 Cubans in AAA.

There were 3 players in the Mexican AAA Summer League.

There were 5 in the Big Leagues.

These are the same Cubans that have played in the Cuban National League. They were formed as a players in Cuba. I can not believe they learned everything in the USA. They just proved they were good or bad in the A, AA, AAA or major leagues once they came to the USA.

So you have 24 players above A league and 11 at A level.

I still think the Cuban National League is above A level.

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules

This is a ridiculous statement. A four team league that plays just 30 games is not really a league. That's not enough teams or games. The Cuban Super League is essentially four all-star teams with all the top talent concentrated on four teams. What if the majors created a Super Major League with just four teams? That would be an incredible amount of talent on just four teams. But it wouldn't really be league.

Honus:

The Dominican and Puerto Rican Winter leagues have 6 teams. They do not play to many games either. The Cuban Super League was created so that the top players play each other. You become better playing against the best. If Mexico plays soccer matches against Cuba all the times instead of Brazil or Argentina, the Mexican soccer will not be as good. Cuba is one of the worst soccer teams in the world.

The Major Leagues now have to many teams. Are these teams major league teams? Tampa, Brewers, Royals, Pirates, Rockies. They have been bad for a long time. I bet you that some of the teams in the Cuban Super League would finish ahead of them in the majors.

**Honus Wagner Rules** · 12-04-2005, 09:19 PM

Originally Posted by Cubano100%

Honus:

The Dominican and Puerto Rican Winter leagues have 6 teams. They do not play to many games either. The Cuban Super League was created so that the top players play each other. You become better playing against the best. If Mexico plays soccer matches against Cuba all the times instead of Brazil or Argentina, the Mexican soccer will not be as good. Cuba is one of the worst soccer teams in the world.

The Major Leagues now have to many teams. Are these teams major league teams? Tampa, Brewers, Royals, Pirates, Rockies. They have been bad for a long time. I bet you that some of the teams in the Cuban Super League would finish ahead of them in the majors.

The Domincan and Puerto Rican winter leagues are not really traditional leagues either. Being bad doesn't mean a team is not major league. A better scenario is to take an average team from the Cuban National Team and place them in the American or Naional League and see how they would do over a 162 game schedule. Whether a Cuban Super League team would finish ahead of some major league team is simply speculation.

**Cubano100%** · 12-04-2005, 09:23 PM

Originally Posted by jalbright

The fact a couple of guys did better from a statistical standpoint means virtually nothing. The BA's against are less of a story than ERA. I'd just guess walk and/or power rates are up more substantially to create that 15%difference in ERA. Where available, runs are the preferred measure.

Beyond that, I've learned not to judge hitters by the conversion factors of pitchers or vice versa. For instance, if the parks are small, pitchers can gain a benefit by moving to larger major league parks. That means hitters get a double dose of bad news, though (i.e. leaving both a weaker league and smaller ballparks to go to a tougher league with bigger ballparks). The example may or may not apply to Cuba, but it illustrates the point I'm making. It is my understanding that in Cuba they use aluminum bats. Is that correct? When did it start? Certainly, that might be a factor which helps hitters in Cuba.

I'm not trying to knock Cuban ball nor build it up. I'm seeking facts and to interpret those facts as accurately as possible. So far, I haven't seen anything which disproves either your contentions or Clay Davenport's about the quality of Cuban ball.

Jim Albright

The 2 players that have better stats in the ML as oppose as the Cuban League happen to be young players. They did not leave their best years behind. Older players have done worst in the USA.

If Davenport wrote his article before President Bush, he could have gone to Cuba at least. Once there, he could have attended games and films games. There are a number of American reporters that have gone to Cuba in the past.

**jalbright** · 12-05-2005, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules

Jim,

However the situation that the Negro Leaguers had doesn't apply to the Cuban Super League. The Cuban Super League is playing a very short schedule by design. They are not losing games because they are out barnstorming. There are many issues that come up in a four team team that would make it very difficult to determine how good a player is. I brought this up in another thread and no one commented on it. Let's try a thought experiment. Let's say the major leagues contracted immediately to just four teams. Only the 100 best players were on those teams. What kind of statistics would a player on one of these teams generate? Let's take Albert Pujols for an example. How wound he do in such a league? Would Pujols hit .332/416/.621, his career numbers? I highly doubt that because every pitcher he is facing would be an all-star caliber pitcher. Given the high concentration of top talent his offensive numbers would suffer. But this would also apply to the pitchers as well. They's be facing great hitters in every AB. So their numbers would suffer as well. It's my belief that all the numbers would tend to be pulled down toward league averages. Most of the hitters would be .260-.270 hitters and most of the pitcthers would probably have 4.00+ ERAs. I'm not sure how I would test this theory but it would be fun to find out.

Actually, I think my idea is fully applicable at least until the league is so concentrated that on average it is better than the majors. At that point, your example holds water. But if the league is still below major league quality on average, all we've done is move the bar closer to major league quality. Yes, the numbers would suffer in comparison to the larger league--but that is exactly what would happen to the players' numbers if they went to the majors. You could run a test through any solid game but just picking say divisional all-star teams. There may be other issues--but are they really so serious as to merit throwing away data? I doubt it, especially when we're in a situation where we need all we can get. That's another similarity to the Negro League situation which I think makes the comparison quite apt.

Jim Albright

**jalbright** · 12-05-2005, 01:08 PM

Originally Posted by Cubano100%

The 2 players that have better stats in the ML as oppose as the Cuban League happen to be young players. They did not leave their best years behind. Older players have done worst in the USA.

This highlights why I'd like to have season by season data. Then we could compare the older players in the seasons in Cuba closer in time to their defections to minimize this issue. Without being able to do so, it limits our ability to make reasonable evaluations.

Jim Albright

**Cubano100%** · 12-06-2005, 04:29 AM

Originally Posted by jalbright

This highlights why I'd like to have season by season data. Then we could compare the older players in the seasons in Cuba closer in time to their defections to minimize this issue. Without being able to do so, it limits our ability to make reasonable evaluations.

Jim Albright

How about the Cuban defectors stats in the minor leagues? I have not done any research on it, but I think the younger ones have done way much better than the older ones.

**Cubano100%** · 12-06-2005, 04:43 AM

Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules

The Domincan and Puerto Rican winter leagues are not really traditional leagues either. Being bad doesn't mean a team is not major league. A better scenario is to take an average team from the Cuban National Team and place them in the American or Naional League and see how they would do over a 162 game schedule. Whether a Cuban Super League team would finish ahead of some major league team is simply speculation.

In 1959, the Cuban Sugar Kings were the AAA champs. There were many Cubans playing in the ML. The Sugar Kings roster was mostly if not all Cubans I believe. Don't you think one of the Cuban Super league teams would finish ahead of some MLB teams? Most of the best Cuban players are back home.

If you do the same with Japanese players and form 4 teams, some of the MLB teams would finish behind the Japanese teams. That is for sure. Some of the MLB teams make me cry.

You can not do the same with other countries because these players are part of the ML teams and you would weaken these teams.

It is just speculation, but this is what I think.

**jalbright** · 12-06-2005, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by Cubano100%

How about the Cuban defectors stats in the minor leagues? I have not done any research on it, but I think the younger ones have done way much better than the older ones.

Sure, we need all the valid information we can get. Of course, the accomplishments in the minor leagues aren't the same as accomplishing that in the majors, but we can make those comparisons.

Jim Albright

**Cubano100%** · 12-07-2005, 07:32 AM

Originally Posted by jalbright

Sure, we need all the valid information we can get. Of course, the accomplishments in the minor leagues aren't the same as accomplishing that in the majors, but we can make those comparisons.

Jim Albright

Allright Jim and HWR, you guys are making me work hard. I know you like stats as much as I do.

Players Series AB H AVE 2B 3B HR SLU OBP RBI BB SO IW FPCT

Cuban National League

Reynaldo Ordonez 4 712 186 261 23 4 4 322 71 23 76 0 96

Jorge Toca 8 2497 796 319 165 15 100 517 465 217 348 47 992

Yuniesky Betancourt 4 1187 333 281 60 23 26 436 148 62 123 2 973

Alex Sanchez never made any team

Kendry Morales 3 871 287 330 60 5 37 537 170 116 124 15 954

Juan Miguel Miranda 4 1138 343 301 70 14 57 538 205 197 242 11 981

Ayalen Ortiz 4 596 167 280 29 4 8 383 53 37 110 3 964

Juan Muniz 5 765 178 233 26 2 9 307 83 98 154 2 958

Yobal Duenas 14 5025 1615 321 282 46 136 477 763 351 359 61 974

Yunel Escobar 4 439 119 271 16 2 6 358 50 77 96 0 923

Joel Perez There are 3 players name Joel Perez in Cuban records. None of them have more than 20 AB.

MLB or Minor Leagues

Reynaldo Ordonez 9 3115 767 246 129 17 12 310 289 287 64 976
His batting average is almost the same between the two leagues. I always wrote he could not hit a water melon back home.

Jorge Toca 3 27 7 259 1 0 0 296 259 5 0 1000
http://cbs.sportsline.com/mlb/players/playerpage/127123
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...d=milb&cid=494

His is a product of the aluminum bat. He came after 8 seasons in Cuba. He was in the refugee camps in Bahamas. Then, he went to Japan with his Japanese wife. Finally, he came to the USA. I do not know how much time he lost.

Yuniesky Betancourt 1 211 54 256 11 5 1 370 296 15 0 981
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=435358

Where is Orly? He said that Betancourt hitted 3 for The Villa Clara Oranges. I doubt it with this kind of numbers.
Orly: you seem to be gone from Baseball Fever. Prove to me he was the third hitter for The Oranges.

Alex Sanchez http://tampabay.devilrays.mlb.com/NA...layerID=400128

He never made a team in Cuba. He was either to young or not that good or a combination of the too.

Kendry Morales http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=434778

He hit 37 Hrs in 3 series in Cuba. He hit 24 in the USA minor leagues in half a season after not playing for 2 years. Where is the minor league pitching?

Juan Miguel Miranda: He is in the Dominican Republic waiting to get legal papers.

Ayalen Ortiz: He is in the Dominican Republic waiting to get legal papers.

Juan Muniz http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...d=milb&cid=249
He did better in AA than in Cuba. He wasted a lot of time in Brazil waiting for legal papers.
Yobal Duenas http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=430577

He played 14 seasons in Cuba. He wasted a lot of time in El Salvador trying to get his legal documents. He came to the USA close to being 35 years old. Gabe Lopez and J. T. Stotts recieved more playing time than him. These two are younger not necesary better. These two have more potential than Duenas because they are younger.

Yunel Escobar http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=488862

He was a reserve in Cuba. His stats in Cuba are not great. Now he is the number 4 prospect in the Braves system. How would better players still in Cuba be ranked?
He was drafted in 2005 and placed in A ball where he did very well. He should not be in A ball.

Joel Perez http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/a...ilb&pid=489205

Drafted in 2005 and placed in rookie league. He hit with some power but his ave was not good. He did not have 20 AB in Cuba as far as I can tell.

As far I can tell, Kendry Morales and Juan Miguel Miranda were good in Cuba and are young enough to do well in the majors. Betancourt has his glove and needs to hit 270 to be in the majors for a while. Escobar has to work harder to make it. All the others have a very long shot to make the major leagues.

Now, don't forget Alain "El Toro(The Bull)" Soler. He is a pitcher and got some talent. He has not pitched a lot in 2 years while in the Dominican Republic.

Major League teams must do a better job scouting Cuban players and gathering info on them before creating false expectations. As for Davenport, he needs to take a trip to Cuba whenever he can. The New York-Penn league is A ball. In A ball you have very young players that are just pullishing their skills. Some of the best prospects also go to AA ball unless they are coming from high school. Mention one name in that league that is close to Jose Contreras and Orlando Hernandez. Contreras came form Cuba to the majors. Hernandez spent 2 months in AAA because he was suspended from playing in the Cuban National League after his half brother Livan defected. He could have come straight to the majors.

There is no way that the Cuban National League is A ball. I am done with this topic. You are entitled to your own opinions. Not all Cuban defectors were great in Cuba to begin with. Why should we expect them to become major leaguers?

I do not want to sound to smart, but watch out with the Cuban pitching in the BWC. I have been warning some of you. Pitching and defense win ball games and championships. Teams with good pitching have a better shot than others.

**Agente Libre** · 12-07-2005, 09:15 AM

I just discovered this site/forum. Some very interesting discussions.

I've been following Cuban baseball very closely for about 8 years. I agree with Cubano100% that Davenport's study yielded an inaccurate comparison. There is simply no way the Cuban National Series is comparable to Class-A in the U.S.

Tossing aside all baseball statistics and just applying some basic math, the average Class-A team is lucky to yield just one Major League player. That would suggest the Cuban National Series currently has but 16 Major League-caliber players, which is laughably absurd.

As Cubano100% pointed out, a lot of young players came to U.S. and did better than they did in Cuba. Yuniesky Betancourt was completely unheralded when he left Cuba and a lot of people around MLB gasped when he signed the big contract with Seattle, yet he reached the big leagues in 3 months.

Another example is Yunel Escobar (Braves). Escobar played 4 full seasons in Cuba and was only a .270 lifetime hitter with 6 home runs. In half a season in U.S., he tore up A-ball and matched his Cuban career mark for HRs.

(I don't know Davenport's methodology, but it seems as if he might have assumed, incorrectly, that the players on the National Team are actually Cuba's best players, which is false.)

**Jake83** · 12-07-2005, 09:16 AM

Originally Posted by Agente Libre

I just discovered this site/forum. Some very interesting discussions.

I've been following Cuban baseball very closely for about 8 years. I agree with Cubano100% that Davenport's study yielded an inaccurate comparison. There is simply no way the Cuban National Series is comparable to Class-A in the U.S.

Tossing aside all baseball statistics and just applying some basic math, the average Class-A team is lucky to yield just one Major League player. That would suggest the Cuban National Series currently has but 16 Major League-caliber players, which is laughably absurd.

As Cubano100% pointed out, a lot of young players came to U.S. and did better than they did in Cuba. Yuniesky Betancourt was completely unheralded when he left Cuba and a lot of people around MLB gasped when he signed the big contract with Seattle, yet he reached the big leagues in 3 months.

Another example is Yunel Escobar (Braves). Escobar played 4 full seasons in Cuba and was only a .270 lifetime hitter with 6 home runs. In half a season in U.S., he tore up A-ball and matched his Cuban career mark for HRs.

(I don't know Davenport's methodology, but it seems as if he might have assumed, incorrectly, that the players on the National Team are actually Cuba's best players, which is false.)

What about Morales even thogh he out up decent numbers I think he was a minor disappointment

**jalbright** · 12-07-2005, 09:17 AM

Originally Posted by Cubano100%

Allright Jim and HWR, you guys are making me work hard. I know you like stats as much as I do.
........
Major League teams must do a better job scouting Cuban players and gathering info on them before creating false expectations. As for Davenport, he needs to take a trip to Cuba whenever he can. The New York-Penn league is A ball. In A ball you have very young players that are just pullishing their skills. Some of the best prospects also go to AA ball unless they are coming from high school. Mention one name in that league that is close to Jose Contreras and Orlando Hernandez. Contreras came form Cuba to the majors. Hernandez spent 2 months in AAA because he was suspended from playing in the Cuban National League after his half brother Livan defected. He could have come straight to the majors.

There is no way that the Cuban National League is A ball. I am done with this topic. You are entitled to your own opinions. Not all Cuban defectors were great in Cuba to begin with. Why should we expect them to become major leaguers?

I do not want to sound to smart, but watch out with the Cuban pitching in the BWC. I have been warning some of you. Pitching and defense win ball games and championships. Teams with good pitching have a better shot than others.

Cuba has had talents well above A or AA ball. That is not something I have disputed. That is so because if guys don't defect, they have nowhere to go. The question is, how many of them are there and how do they affect the average quality of play? Data like this helps nail down the issue. Sometime when I have some time to really dig into it, I'll do so.

It's not only the majors creating false expectations. Actually, I think the main problems are 1) agents for the defectors, who have a vested interest in having their players seen as budding superstars, and 2) well-meaning but at least overzealous fans of Cuban ball.

Cuba could do well in the WBC--and maybe not. Either way, as I've said, I'm not sure how much that proves. Even if Davenport is right, the National team should probably be two steps (maybe more) up from the sixteen team league. Teams that get blown out aren't very good, but I doubt that will happen to Cuba. How much do the 2004 Olympic results mean? About as much as the WBC--but it will be good for fans to see all these talents together in a way that hasn't happened in the Olympics.

Jim Albright

**Agente Libre** · 12-07-2005, 09:32 AM

Jake -- It seems hard to say Morales was a disappointment. He had been away from competition for over a year, came to U.S. in May, tore up A-Advanced, and then was absolutely on fire in Double-A by the time the season ended. After that, he had a good showing in the AFL, albeit with doubles power and not HR power.

Keep in mind, on top of the cultural adjustment, he started in High-A, which probably 2% of new players do, and then he was seeing every pitcher for the first time in High A and Double-A.

**Cubano100%** · 12-07-2005, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by Jake83

What about Morales even thogh he out up decent numbers I think he was a minor disappointment

Jake: What else do you want the guy to do? He was suspended from the Cuban league. He went to the Dominican Republic and did not play to much. He came 2 months after the season started. He did was he was supposed to do. Let give the guy sometimes to get used to the cheese burgers and Ceasar salads as oppose to black beans, rice and roast pork. He needs to learn some English and get used to America. May be you were born in the USA, but I did not. I understand what an immigrant go through. It does not matter how much money you have. You need to fit in.

Kendry Morales: Individual Stats (Batting)
Team From To G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 05/21 06/13 22 90 18 31 3 0 5 17 49 6 11 0 0 .400 .544 .344
Arkansas Travelers 06/13 09/04 74 281 47 86 12 0 17 54 149 17 43 2 0 .349 .530 .306
Surprise Scorpions 10/04 11/10 24 92 19 35 14 0 2 18 55 12 13 0 0 .444 .598 .380

**Cubano100%** · 12-07-2005, 10:17 PM

Is really the Cuban Nationbal League an A ball?

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The New York-Penn State league is for very young players that need to work on their skills. Is it?

Since Rene Arocha defected in 1993, these are the Cuban pitchers who have seen MLB action. I went ahead and look for the Japanese pitchers stats since 1993. I am doing the pitchers because it is where the larger pool is. For the position players, non of the Cuban defectors have come with Ichiro or H. Matsui resume back home. Maybe Kendry Morales or Juan Miguel Miranda, but he only play a 2 or 3 seasons back home and he is not in the majors anyway.

In my opinion, Japanese and Cuban players share some similarities such as leaving their best years in Japan or Cuba. In other words, they come past their primes. In addition to this, the following are some issues afecting players from these two countries.

The Japanese and Cuban players have to deal with an adjustment period, language and culture barrier. You may argue that Spanish is closer to English that Japanese. However, Japanese people have access to Satellite English channels while Cubans do not have that luxury. Our society is a very closed society. The only country that has a closer society than us is North Korea. I am sure some Muslim countries are very strict too on this. I never had contacts with tourists or watched an English TV stations while in Cuba. You can say I was a cave man isolated from the world. This is the only way Castro can survive. We do not have access to the Internet either. The Cuban government, if you can call it a government, does not want defectors to do well.

Japanese players have money and live in a free society. I never heard of the Japanese government retaining or blackmailing their families or trying to escape Japan to play in the ML. They can come straight from Japan and join MLB and comeback to Japan in the offseason. We do not have that luxury.

The Japanese pitchers have a .05 ERA better than the Cubans.

How good Japanese baseball is? Don't some experts consider it close to Major Leagues too.

My friends, there is no way that the Cuban National league is A ball.

The stats are there. Nobody can hide them.

Castro has done many things wrong. But that does not mean we still do not have good players.
What happen to the USA NHL. How many Russians and players from the former East Communist block made it right away?

How many countries have the baseball structure that Cuba has? I updated the Cuban Baseball Structure Thread. I hope when Castro is gone from the picture, the new government maintain some of the structure like championships for the 10 through junior categories. The ML teams will have a feast 90 miles south of Key West. That will mean the end of the Cuban National League and the rebirth of the Cuban Winter League.

Players ERA

13 Cuban players

René Arocha 4.11
Ariel Prieto 4.85
Osvaldo Fernández 4.93
Liván Hernández 4.11
Rolando Arrojo 4.55
Orlando Hernández 4.11
Vladimir Núñez 4.83
Michael Tejera 5.14
Adrián Hernández 6.55
Eddie Oropesa 7.34
Danys Báez 3.69
Hansel Izquierdo 4.55
José Contreras 4.28

Total 63.04
Ave ERA 4.85

17 Japanese players

Hideo Nomo 4.21
Mac Suzuki 5.72
Hideki Irabu 5.15
Takashi Kashiwada 4.31
Shigetoshi Hasegawa 3.71
Masato Yoshii 4.62
Tomo Ohka 3.95
Masao Kida 5.83
Kazuhiro Sasaki 3.14
Satoru Komiyama 5.61
Takahito Nomura 8.56
Kazuhisa Ishii 4.44
Mike Nakamura 7.51
Shingo Takatsu 3.38
Kazuhito Tadano 4.47
Akinori Otsuka 2.57
Keiichi Yabu 4.5

Total 81.68
Ave ERA 4.8

**Cubano100%** · 12-07-2005, 11:21 PM

Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules

This is a ridiculous statement. A four team league that plays just 30 games is not really a league. That's not enough teams or games. The Cuban Super League is essentially four all-star teams with all the top talent concentrated on four teams. What if the majors created a Super Major League with just four teams? That would be an incredible amount of talent on just four teams. But it wouldn't really be league.

The Cuban Super League was created when the IBAF allowed professional players compete for their countries. The Cuban National League only have 90 games. The ML has 162 games. By adding the Super League, players can play 30 high level extra games to prepare against the professional players.
In the past, Cuba had the National League and the Selective League(Serie Selectiva). The Selective serie had 8 teams.
They keep changing the format and structure. That is for sure.

**Cubano100%** · 12-08-2005, 01:20 AM

How about Cuban 2bs in the 1990s?

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Player series Ave Slg H 2b 3b Hr

Antonio Pacheco 22 334 525 2356 366 63 284
Yobal Duenas 14 321 477 1615 282 46 136
Enrique Diaz 19 306 384 1784 211 84 26
Oscar Macias 18 310 513 1960 319 50 286
Juan Padilla(gold glover) 17 307 447 1914 293 68 149

Can anyone think of somebody else?