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I bookmarked your link for future reading...I'm right now in what amounts to one giant literature search phase, so I appreciate your taking the time to respond in this thread.
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astoundingly...I actually understood that article on Markov chains...
Looks very promising to me...I believe I am capable of eventually producing something like that even with my limited computer programming skill, though I suspect it's more complicated than the theory looks
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No, it's pretty straightforward. If you understand "recursion" or "recursive functions", then you will be fine.
The complex part is deciding what is a state. In my case, I generate a win probability matrix by batting order, inning, score, base, out. Imagine if I also include the opposing pitcher(s).
But, start off easy with a run expectancy matrix, and you only have to worry about the base,out states.
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Yeah...I like the idea that a batter's real-world contribution can be found by running the same process on his statistics alone (if nothing but Barry Bonds batted, how many runs would he score?)...the same model can be used to do many different things, which is pretty cool.
I'm not so much worried about win probabilities because I don't think it's a good idea to rate players based on how they impacted their team's probability of winning games. That by its' very definition is team-dependent and I fear that great players on bad teams would suffer (how much does a solo home run by Richie Sexson impact the '05 Mariners' chances of winning a 1-6 game in the 7th inning? It's not Sexson's fault the rest of his team pretty much sucked)...
But I do see how a WE Matrix would be useful to testing if different strategies designed to win competitive games (sac bunts, steals, hit and run, etc) would be a good idea.
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OK...question for you Tango...
Is the subject of how to estimate the run expectency for each base/out state in years prior to the PBP era covered in detail in your book? I don't presently see how that could be accomplished, and I'm sure I'm missing something obvious.
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No, it's not. But, you couldn't certainly use what's iin the book to figure it out. It's really a very simple process. I'll write that up eventually.
Tom
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