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Thread: Mussina's 20th

  1. #1
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    Mussina's 20th

    Last night, Mike Mussina record his AL-lead tying 9th win of the 2008 season. Despite not pitching particularly well - he's just above average - Mussina has reached 9 wins earlier in the season than at any other time in his career.

    How would (finally) having a 20-win season help his Hall chances? What if he leads the league in wins this year? Does either add enough to his Hall credentials that it gets him over the bump?
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
    "I am led to suspect that some of the electorate is very dumb." -- Henry P. Edwards
    "You have a Hall of Fame to put people in, not keep people out." -- Brian Kenny

  2. #2
    Being 9-4 on a .500 team shows he's doing something right, although it is a bit of a mystery as to how. An ERA+ of a whopping 102 doesn't help explain much.
    A 20 win season would probably help his HOF chances, but it wont make a huge difference. A few more good years would do alot more good.
    Last edited by bob; 06-06-2008 at 11:17 AM.

  3. #3
    It would help him in several ways:

    1. That'd make 270 wins for his career.
    2. Coming off a 20 win season with only 30 to go for 300 would make it very likely that he end up pitching at least one more year beyond this one. The fact that he won't be 40 until December and doesn't rely on a fastball to routinely get guys out also means he could hang around another 3-4 years (look at Moyer).
    3. He's currently the winningest pitcher to never have a 20 win season.
    4. Having his best season towards the end of his career would elevate him in the minds of the sports writers.

    I really doubt Moose will get to 20 wins this season, but I do hope he continues to pitch as he has in his last 8 starts (let's not forget he started the year 1 and 3). In his last start, his curve ball and placement was the best I've seen in a long time. He reminded me of Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux the way he pitched, painted and placed.

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    His strikeout rate has really really plummeted the past two seasons. As recently as 2006 he had 172 Ks in 197.3 IP. That's a very healthy 7.84 K/9. But in '07 his strikeout rate dropped all the way down to 5.39 K/9. This seasons it's down to 5.21 K/9. That is not a good sign for Moose. I'm rooting for him to get to 300 wins but I don't think he'll get there. I hope I'm wrong though.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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    It would stop the one blowhard argument about he never won 20 (only to replace it with he only won 20 once). What it will do is if he retires within a year is have his last impression be a good one rather than what it has been.

  6. #6
    Mussina is gunning for his 17th straight double digit win (and .500+ in 16) season. He will finish the year with over 3500 innings and has a 122 ERA+. That's almost exclusive HOF territory.
    Last edited by brett; 06-09-2008 at 07:11 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bob View Post
    Being 9-4 on a .500 team shows he's doing something right, although it is a bit of a mystery as to how. An ERA+ of a whopping 102 doesn't help explain much.
    A 20 win season would probably help his HOF chances, but it wont make a huge difference. A few more good years would do alot more good.
    The middling ERA is because of a bad start -- since April 23, he's 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA.

    Subjectively, I think Girardi is handling him better than Torre did...he's keeping him on a short leash and giving him a quick hook when he doesn't have it or starts to lose it.

    Also, Mussina's always had a rep of being rather fragile psychologically. I rather suspect one reason he's doing well is that no one expects anything of him this year.

    He might make it, and the 20 win season would be a missing piece to his resume. Granted, it would be like Paul Newman's or Al Pacino's Best Actor Oscars -- they both had 7-10 movies that they were better in, and Mussina has had 7-10 seasons where he was a better pitcher than he is this year.

    But the Oscar's still on the mantle, and the 20-win year will still on the books.

    We'll see...he still needs 11 wins, which is a lot for a 39 year old rag-armed pitcher on a middling team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Mussina is gunning for his 17th straight double digit win and .500+ season. He will finish the year with over 3500 innings and has a 122 ERA+. That's almost exclusive HOF territory.
    Indeed.
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  9. #9
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    Winning 20 would clinch the HOF for Mussina, even if he does so only once, and in a year which was not his best.
    "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

    NL President Ford Frick, 1947

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    I firmly believe Mussina's a Hall of Famer whether he gets 20 wins this year or not.

    Scott
    I told you not to be stupid you moron.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steve rogers View Post
    I firmly believe Mussina's a Hall of Famer whether he gets 20 wins this year or not.

    Scott
    I've pretty much come around to that point of view. He may not make it on the 1st ballot, but I believe the BBWAA will select him at some point.
    "I do not care if half the league strikes. Those who do it will encounter quick retribution. All will be suspended and I don't care if it wrecks the National League for five years. This is the United States of America and one citizen has as much right to play as another. The National League will go down the line with Robinson whatever the consequences. You will find if you go through with your intention that you have been guilty of complete madness."

    NL President Ford Frick, 1947

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Fuzzy Bear View Post
    I've pretty much come around to that point of view. He may not make it on the 1st ballot, but I believe the BBWAA will select him at some point.
    They haven't selected Blyleven who has a 20 win season, 287 wins and over 3700 SOs. What makes you think they'd select Mussina who has no 20 win seasons, 259 wins and 1000 less SOs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    They haven't selected Blyleven who has a 20 win season, 287 wins and over 3700 SOs. What makes you think they'd select Mussina who has no 20 win seasons, 259 wins and 1000 less SOs?
    Also depends on the winning percentage ratio as well, Blyleven pitched most of his career on bad or average teams at best.
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    Far and away the most common factor cited by hidebound traditionalist writers against Bert is the 250 losses and consequent low winning percentage. It's idiotic, but that's how too many of them still think.
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  15. #15
    I don't see how people are arguing Schilling doesn't belong in the hall, but are all for Mussina.
    Schilling spent the first 10 years of his career on last place teams; had he been on the Yankees he would have 300 wins easily by now. He has a lower career ERA, 400 more strikeouts, and an unreal postseason resume.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Charger567 View Post
    I don't see how people are arguing Schilling doesn't belong in the hall, but are all for Mussina.
    Schilling spent the first 10 years of his career on last place teams; had he been on the Yankees he would have 300 wins easily by now. He has a lower career ERA, 400 more strikeouts, and an unreal postseason resume.
    These guys all make it for me out of the pitchers not yet eligible or currently on the BBWAA ballot:

    Pedro Martinez
    Roger Clemens
    Randy Johnson
    Mike Mussina
    Mariano Rivera
    Curt Schilling
    Greg Maddux
    Tom Glavine
    John Smoltz
    Bert Blyleven
    Jack Morris

    These guys were overlooked in the past, but they also belong:

    Dan Quisenberry
    Wes Ferrell
    Wilbur Cooper
    Don Newcombe
    Tony Mullane
    Carl Mays
    Bob Caruthers

    Can go either way on these guys:

    Allie Reynolds
    Lon Warneke
    Billy Pierce
    Luis Tiant
    Ron Guidry
    Tommy Bridges
    Lee Smith
    Trevor Hoffman
    Tommy John
    Jim Kaat

    Get the 1st two groups in and maybe 1 or 2 from the last group and we have ourselves a solid group of pitchers.

  17. #17
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    I agree with a lot of what other posts have said. Mussina getting 20 wins puts him at 270 for his career. If he gets 300, it's automatic.

    And for all of those who said we'd seen the death of the 300 game winner I present Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson (almost), and Mike Mussina (almost). Five guys with 300 wins?!
    “I see great things in baseball.”
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  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    They haven't selected Blyleven who has a 20 win season, 287 wins and over 3700 SOs. What makes you think they'd select Mussina who has no 20 win seasons, 259 wins and 1000 less SOs?
    Bert, by the way is one of just two three players with over 1200 innings for whom NO non hall of famer tops in BOTH IP and ERA+ with a 118 ERA+ and just under 5000 IP.

    The others are Smoltz who has a 127 ERA+ and about 3400 innings and Mussina who has a few more innings and a 122 ERA+.


    Schilling is real close at about 127 and 3300 and if Smoltz drops below him in ERA+ then Schilling will be the third-which he has been before, and it would be possible for Kevin Brown to reach that club if Smoltz and Schilling both lose a tad in ERA+.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by baseball junkie View Post

    And for all of those who said we'd seen the death of the 300 game winner I present Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson (almost), and Mike Mussina (almost). Five guys with 300 wins?!
    Mussina, Johnson and Pettitte have outside chances at 300 with Pettitte having maybe a 5% chance. Outside of them, name 1 pitcher who has a shot at 300 wins.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    Mussina, Johnson and Pettitte have outside chances at 300 with Pettitte having maybe a 5% chance. Outside of them, name 1 pitcher who has a shot at 300 wins.
    Really, there's no one else. Looking on the list of active pitchers with the most wins (below the 300 mark) what you have is:

    1) Randy Johnson 288 wins, 44 years old.
    2) Mike Mussina 259 wins, 39 years old.
    3) Jamie Moyer 236 wins, 45 years old.
    4) Curt Schilling 216 wins, 41 years old.
    5) Kenny Rogers 214 wins, 43 years old.
    6) Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz 210 wins, the former is 36 and the latter is 41.
    7) Andy Pettite 206 wins, 36 years old.
    8) Tim Wakefield 172 wins, 41 years old.
    9) Bartolo Colon 149 wins, 35 years old.
    10) Aaron Sele 148 wins, 38 years old.

    I doubt Johnson will do it, Mussina maybe, Martinez maybe, and no one else.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1905 Giants View Post
    Really, there's no one else. Looking on the list of active pitchers with the most wins (below the 300 mark) what you have is:

    1) Randy Johnson 288 wins, 44 years old.
    2) Mike Mussina 259 wins, 39 years old.
    3) Jamie Moyer 236 wins, 45 years old.
    4) Curt Schilling 216 wins, 41 years old.
    5) Kenny Rogers 214 wins, 43 years old.
    6) Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz 210 wins, the former is 36 and the latter is 41.
    7) Andy Pettite 206 wins, 36 years old.
    8) Tim Wakefield 172 wins, 41 years old.
    9) Bartolo Colon 149 wins, 35 years old.
    10) Aaron Sele 148 wins, 38 years old.

    I doubt Johnson will do it, Mussina maybe, Martinez maybe, and no one else.
    Why do you doubt Johnson can win 300 games? It seems clear that he wants to get to 300 wins and he's pitchers fairly well this season. If he can rack up eight more wins in '08 he just needs four wins in '09. I do agree that no one else on your list after Mussina has a legit shot. I expect by around the 2018-2020 the under current age 30 group of pitchers (Zambrano, Sabathia, Beurhle, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, etc.) will be nearing 300 wins.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Why do you doubt Johnson can win 300 games? It seems clear that he wants to get to 300 wins and he's pitchers fairly well this season. If he can rack up eight more wins in '08 he just needs four wins in '09. I do agree that no one else on your list after Mussina has a legit shot. I expect by around the 2018-2020 the under current age 30 group of pitchers (Zambrano, Sabathia, Beurhle, Oswalt, Peavy, Webb, etc.) will be nearing 300 wins.
    Randy Johnson may want to get to 300 wins, but as of today, he's 44 years old, will be 45 before the season's over, still needs 12 more wins and has major back issues. He's a big question mark at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    Randy Johnson may want to get to 300 wins, but as of today, he's 44 years old, will be 45 before the season's over, still needs 12 more wins and has major back issues. He's a big question mark at this point.
    Agreed. Not the same pitcher he was 3-4 years ago. And he's as likely to retire as not with the next DL stint.
    "It is a simple matter to erect a Hall of Fame, but difficult to select the tenants." -- Ken Smith
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    Quote Originally Posted by Classic View Post
    Last night, Mike Mussina record his AL-lead tying 9th win of the 2008 season. Despite not pitching particularly well - he's just above average - Mussina has reached 9 wins earlier in the season than at any other time in his career.

    How would (finally) having a 20-win season help his Hall chances? What if he leads the league in wins this year? Does either add enough to his Hall credentials that it gets him over the bump?
    He's in the HOF no matter what, as long as he gets 41 more wins.

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by jjpm74 View Post
    Randy Johnson may want to get to 300 wins, but as of today, he's 44 years old, will be 45 before the season's over, still needs 12 more wins and has major back issues. He's a big question mark at this point.
    I don't know. He's pitching fairly well this year. Say he gets 6 more wins this year (he could get more though I am assuming he'll miss time again at some point), that would bring him to 294 for his career. Barring a major injury, if he wants to gut it out to 300 wins, I could definitely see either the Diamondbacks or even the Mariners giving him that opportunity to get 6 more wins.

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