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Thread: Ryan Thib's HOF Tracker

  1. #1
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    Ryan Thib's HOF Tracker

    I saw a link to this on HardballTalk.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...sharing#gid=16

    With just over 6% of ballots in, Martinez, Johnson, Smoltz, Piazza, and Biggio are projected to make the cut.

    Bagwell, Mussina, Raines and Schilling are showing significant gains. Delgado, Nomar, Kent, and Sosa look like they will drop off the ballot.
    Chop! Chop! Chop!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post
    I saw a link to this on HardballTalk.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...sharing#gid=16

    With just over 6% of ballots in, Martinez, Johnson, Smoltz, Piazza, and Biggio are projected to make the cut.

    Bagwell, Mussina, Raines and Schilling are showing significant gains. Delgado, Nomar, Kent, and Sosa look like they will drop off the ballot.
    This one is always behind the BTF one. But the pick-up votes, etc. are really nice.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    This one is always behind the BTF one. But the pick-up votes, etc. are really nice.
    Do you have a link?
    Chop! Chop! Chop!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post
    Do you have a link?
    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...llecting_gizmo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Thanks. Didn't realize what BTF meant at first.
    Chop! Chop! Chop!

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    Get a load of this guy... he only voted for three players. And he thinks that's a lot.

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103924...of-fame-ballot
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    Noble did the same thing last year, voting for Glavine, Maddux and Jack Morris. His rationale is one of the sillier ones I've read yet. Shaughnessy's is only the third stupidest (at worst) this year.
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    What they fail to realize is this.

    Not only do the players need to get someone's vote, but also be in the top ten players among those voters who think more than ten men deserve to be in the HOF. Imagine being the eleventh guy on one voter's ballot. He loves ya, but he can't vote for ya. And it takes THREE votes to make up for it.

    So now you need three Yes votes to make up for every No vote.

    AND three yes votes for every sorry I ran out of room vote. It's not like a "no". It's more like an "I'm sorry".
    Last edited by Second Base Coach; 12-21-2014 at 09:09 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Second Base Coach View Post
    Get a load of this guy... he only voted for three players. And he thinks that's a lot.

    http://m.mlb.com/news/article/103924...of-fame-ballot
    Actually he didn't even bother to think as he admitted himself in the article. Really it's a wonder such "minds" can even find employment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    Actually he didn't even bother to think as he admitted himself in the article. Really it's a wonder such "minds" can even find employment.
    Noble really comes across as a muddle-headed, smug jerk...you'd hope that even a cursory review of his columns would get him booted out of the HOF voting. How ironic that he thinks Kent should probably be in but didn't bother to vote for him and the tracker thinks the guy might be dropped off the ballot.

    I'm really surprised that Smoltz is being seen as a slam dunk first ballot guy...guess I was shocked that Eck was seen the same way, and I think they are extremely comparable careerwise. I'd put Schilling in over Smoltz anyday, despite Curt's buffoonery since his playing days...and even during them, remember "Vote Republican"??
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    I like how he explained it was OK for these guys (like Kent) to wait, just because some others did (he mentioned Kiner). He also said something about the stage not being able to handle 4 new inductees -- three's company, four's a crowd nonsense. This kind of "logic" needs to be rooted out so those types of voters can be eliminated.
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    And we have our first Non-Pedro vote. Not sure who though...

    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...ing_gizmo/P200
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    There's one in every crowd...
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    It does my heart good to see Sammy Sosa trending below 5%. The sooner this goof is forgotten, the better off the game will be.
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    88.8 - Smoltz
    ———————
    57.0 - Schilling
    44.4 - Mussina
    I know we've been over it a few times, but this is so frustrating.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Senor Octobre View Post
    I know we've been over it a few times, but this is so frustrating.
    At least Schilling and Mussina have momentum to make it.

    The real tragedy is the fact that Kevin Brown got just 2.1% in 2011 to drop off the ballot.
    Chop! Chop! Chop!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    It does my heart good to see Sammy Sosa trending below 5%. The sooner this goof is forgotten, the better off the game will be.
    I'm surprised he stuck around last year when Raffi fell off.
    H is for Hornsby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigfoot 88 View Post
    The real tragedy is the fact that Kevin Brown got just 2.1% in 2011 to drop off the ballot.
    The real tragedy is that even 2.1% of the voters filled the hump's name in.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ol' aches and pains View Post
    It does my heart good to see Sammy Sosa trending below 5%. The sooner this goof is forgotten, the better off the game will be.
    You and me both brother. My loathing of him as a person is immense, forgetting the steroids issue completely. This is one of the ultimate bad guys (excluding the pure criminals like O.J.). If anyone ever has a chance to talk to anyone who was in one of his clubhouses, you'll get an education.

    For most of us, if they could just elect 5, that will go a long way to helping clear out the backlog. Sadly, some guys will fall off the ballot who shouldn't, but then the situation could start rebounding to an "average" number of qualified people instead of the situation we're in now.

    For the Smoltz vs. Mussina vs. Schilling votes, the HOF live show last year with Thomas, Maddux and the rest was so beneficial to Smoltz, it had to be seen to be believed.
    Last edited by Toledo Inquisition; 12-23-2014 at 07:37 PM.
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    http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...llecting_gizmo

    Top 5 looking pretty good. Just have to remember to expect lots of regression at this point. 80-83% at this point for Biggio and Piazza is not even close to safe.
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    I know the answer is probably there, but this is just from online, share the ballot people right? I would assume the more "traditional" voters would not be part of this

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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    I know the answer is probably there, but this is just from online, share the ballot people right? I would assume the more "traditional" voters would not be part of this
    Good question, I was wondering the same thing. Also, is there a point when a rush of ballots usually comes in? This seems to be crawling along, and I only checked one of these links once or twice last year and it seemed the same. Just wondering if there is a time when the voters actually get around to turning in their ballots. I know that many of them are not using this time to really do research and come up with the best ballot possible. . .
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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    I know the answer is probably there, but this is just from online, share the ballot people right? I would assume the more "traditional" voters would not be part of this
    Yes, the final votes will pull more towards traditional and against PED suspects, etc. There is a huge rush right before the vote is announced.
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  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Bothrops Atrox View Post
    Yes, the final votes will pull more towards traditional and against PED suspects, etc. There is a huge rush right before the vote is announced.
    If the 5 players get in it will help clear out the log jam and maybe open it up for Raines, Mussina and Bagwell next year. The biggest new names on next year's ballot are Griffey, Edmonds, Hoffman and Billy Wagner. There should also be room for steroids guys to move up if they are going to.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SavoyBG View Post
    If the 5 players get in it will help clear out the log jam and maybe open it up for Raines, Mussina and Bagwell next year. The biggest new names on next year's ballot are Griffey, Edmonds, Hoffman and Billy Wagner. There should also be room for steroids guys to move up if they are going to.
    They would, but it won't happen. 3-4 might get in, though.
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