Wouldn't care one way or the other if he gets in or not
If we took Mattingly's best six seasons, and Hernandez's best six seasons, you might have a HOF career. The problem here is clear. If you look beyond those best six seasons (for Mattingly it only has to be four), they really did not finish with HOF-type seasons.
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Keith is close - closer than many people think.
- A major part of 2 championships (82' Cards and 86' Mets)
- 11 Gold Gloves, considered the greatest defensive 1B
- Decent BA and OBP (.296 + .384)
- MVP award winner
What hurts him is that he didn't finish well. After 1987 - age 33 - he was done. He had 2000+ hits. Had he been able to continue until he was 40, 3000 hits would have been his.
Also, he didn't hit for power. His career slugging % is just .436. For a 1B, many find that unacceptable.
Keith is close, but he just misses...
Does anyone know how 'offensive winning percentage' is calculated? I've seen it used a lot in this thread, and it baffles me how Hernandez's can be so high. Basically every other player discussed here had a better offensive peak than Hernandez. Mattingly, Clark, and Olerud beat him handily. Sisler and Belle absolutely destroy him. Cecil Cooper also had a couple of years better than anything Hernandez did, walks or no walks.
The Olerud comparison is the best. They were both premier defensive first basemen with good bats..and similar hitters as well. Olerud had a couple of years better than any that Keith had, so his peak value is probably higher. Overall, very similar players.
Offensive winning percentage is the percentage of games a team would be expected to win if that player batted in all 9 spots. It falsely favors on base percentage because if a guy has a 1000 OB% he would win 100% because he'd never make an out, but a 1000 on base player on a real team would still have teammates make outs and his value would decrease. Hernandez had a .384 on base percentage in a .330 league. Its a major source of his value, but it gets overvalued in offensive WP.
Hernandez by the way has anomalously "good" leverage stats. He produced at 114% of his overall rate in high leverage situations and 93% in low leverage (less meaningful) plate appearances.
Still, I have Helton "not in" the HOF right now, and Helton was basically Hernandez on base and batting and fielding with 20-21 home runs per 162 (on the road)
Didn't Keith snort a bunch of coke??? Where is all the hand wringing about that??? AROD failed a CONFIDENTIAL screening that was leaked and people are lining up to crucify him.
I voted yes.
He had a short career but still more value than:
One cold make the argument that only Eddie Murray and McCovey were better (of the guys at his position with career overlap.) Mattingly was better at his best, but didn't last.
He was a tremendous hitter and one of the best fielders ever at his position. Before steroids, too. I'm not a fan of a huge HOF, or of expanding the place, but there are dozens who got in that can't hold a candle to Keith Hernandez.
Last edited by csh19792001; 07-08-2012 at 01:42 PM.
I don't see Hernandez's career as being particularly short. I mean, he did decline rather dramatically in his mid 30s, but he put up 17 years of baseball which I think would be close to the median for Hall of Fame players.
My vote btw is "yes". The only thing he didn't do that you would expect from a HoF first baseman is hit home runs, and that drags down his SLG and OPS. I'm ok with that considering he was a phenomenal defensive player.
September 16, 2012: The Losing Streak Ends
I think he's about as borderline as anyone, being right there with Will Clark, Al Oliver, Vada Pinson, and a slew of others. And so I voted "wouldn't care one way or the other..."
"Age is a question of mind over matter--if you don't mind, it doesn't matter."
Consider this: Remove all the first basemen in the Hall that you think were worse than Hernandez. Add all the eligible first basemen not in the Hall who were better than him. Where would Hernandez rank among Hall of Fame first basemen if he was the worst in?
The 1983 New York Mets are an interesting team because 1/3 of the way through, Hernandez replaced Dave Kingman at first. Baseball Reference projects Hernandez at +19 defensive runs over 162 games and Kingman at -14, for a difference of roughly 3.3 games.
I can't judge the accuracy of this estimate, but if it's close, it seems to me to suggest that defense at first base can be a pretty big deal, even if 90% of the plays are routine.
In other words, a team can live with a lousy defender at first, so the offensive replacement level is quite high. On the other hand, a terrific defender at first can still have a lot of defensive value, even though first is at the low end of the defensive spectrum--at the replacement level.
So a poor fielding 1B could be - 2.5 WAR defensively (glove and position included), a great fielding 1B could be up to +1 WAR defensively. Making the broad assumption that the defensive systems are getting positional value and defensive value right, of course.
Removed: Joe Kelley, Tony Perez, Jake Beckley, Ben Taylor, Orlando Cepeda, Jim Bottomley, George Kelly
Staying Put: Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Cap Anson, Johnny Mize, Dan Brouthers, Eddie Murray, Hank Greenberg, Roger Connor, Willie McCovey, Mule Suttles, Harmon Killebrew, Buck Leonard, George Sisler, Bill Terry
Added: Jeff Bagwell, Dick Allen, Mark McGwire*, Rafael Palmeiro*, Will Clark
So that would place Hernandez at either #17 or #19 in my pecking order depending on how I look at PED use. Frank Thomas and Jim Thome would jump ahead of him as soon as they're eligible.
September 16, 2012: The Losing Streak Ends
I saw the Mets quite a bit here in Boston vias cable in 1985 and Hernandez did a lot of that "peel off to the dugout 1/3 of the way" stuff.
Finally having a doubles hitter like Hernandez at 1st. means that the Mets wound up with Hubie Brooks, Howard Johnson and Kevin Mitchell, (?!), playing short to get another power bat in the lineup.
BETTER: Anson, Brouthers, Cepeda, Connor, Foxx, Gehrig, Greenberg, Kelly, Killebrew, Leonard, McCovey, Mize, Murray, Sisler, Suttles, Taylor
WORSE: Bottomley, Chance, Perez
EVEN: Beckey, Terry
ADDED: Bagwell, McGriff, Olerud, Clark, Allen, Hodges
Ranking: Hernandez is tied with Beckley and Terry for 22tth.
Last edited by redban; 07-11-2012 at 01:09 PM. Reason: To add Gil Hodges' to the list
Last edited by dgarza; 07-11-2012 at 12:57 PM.
--Hernandez is very borderline based strictly on value. However, I strongly prefer to select borderline guys who were great at something or those who have a more interesting story to those who don't. Hernandez is widely considered the greatest defensive 1B ever and that elevates him above the pack of borderline 1B IMO.