Mark Teixeira

[SABR Matt]

Well...one of the better end-game declines. McGriff went from MOTO star to mediocre line drive hitter almost overnight at the age of 31.

[brett]

Well...one of the better end-game declines. McGriff went from MOTO star to mediocre line drive hitter almost overnight at the age of 31.

That's true in that from ages 31-34 he declined poorly, but 35-38 was pretty good at that plate. Honestly I thought he was done by age 34.

What does MOTO star mean.

BTW, does Teixiera deserve his defensive rep?

[mwiggins]

Plus Murray's greatest asset was that he was a very good hitter in a mostly pitching dominated decade. Tex has the "misfortune" of playing in a hitter's generation in which 35/120/.300 doesn't stand out like it would 25 yrs ago.

Because it was more difficult to put up a 35/120/.300 season back when Murray was in his prime than it is today. 2008 Tex most likely wouldn't have put up a 33/121/.308 season if he was in the 1983 AL dealing with larger ballparks and a larger strikezone. And Murray would have probably whacked 40+ HR's if he'd gotten to play in Arlington in the 2000's.

[SABR Matt]

That's true in that from ages 31-34 he declined poorly, but 35-38 was pretty good at that plate. Honestly I thought he was done by age 34.

What does MOTO star mean.

BTW, does Teixiera deserve his defensive rep?

Middle Of The Order. I thought everyone who tinkered with stats knew that shorthand...sorry.

Usually when you post a 150 OPS+ through age 28, you expect more than a 115 OPS+ at age 31. McGriff basically went from being an MVP candidate to being a nice guy to have hitting 5th or 6th for you if you don't mind the fading defense and the total lack of power from a power position.

[Cougar]

What does MOTO star mean.

Middle Of The Order, I think.

BTW, does Teixiera deserve his defensive rep?

What's his rep, exactly? One of the better first base gloves currently in the game...yeah, sure.

Could he carry Keith Hernandez's gym bag? No. Probably not Don Mattingly's or Mark Grace's either.

His glove is a major plus, but it's not something one could make a keystone of a HOF argument. My take, anyway.

[Cougar]

Usually when you post a 150 OPS+ through age 28, you expect more than a 115 OPS+ at age 31. McGriff basically went from being an MVP candidate to being a nice guy to have hitting 5th or 6th for you if you don't mind the fading defense and the total lack of power from a power position.

The guy peaked in his late twenties. Alas, so do most.

The decline would be more critical if McGriff didn't arrest it and have several better years in his late thirties.

[SABR Matt]

did he have "better" years? I see 119, 119, 106, 111, 142, 110, 144, 125, 99...that's TWO significant good seasons after the decline, not several. At least he didn't fall off a cliff...so that's a good thing. Not saying it robs McGriff of being HOF worthy...he's right at the bottom of my HOF-in list...but I am saying that I wouldn't describe his decline as one of the best of all time...it was multifaceted and solid...but not amazingly good.

[Sockeye]

That's a very, very, very good season but I wouldn't call that a "monster season". By monster season I am referring to the prime Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx season, Frank Thomas, or Jeff Bagwell in 1994 type of season.

Over half the players in the HOF never had a "monster" season by your definition then. That doesn't disqualify them. From 04-08 Teixeira has done everything he needs to do to be well on his way down a HOF path. 5 straight 30/100 seasons. Batting over .300 three of those seasons. He looks to be well on his way to a 6th consecutive 30/100 homer season and it would surprise me if he didn't hit .300 again this season as well.

[Jsquared83]

Over half the players in the HOF never had a "monster" season by your definition then. That doesn't disqualify them. From 04-08 Teixeira has done everything he needs to do to be well on his way down a HOF path. 5 straight 30/100 seasons. Batting over .300 three of those seasons. He looks to be well on his way to a 6th consecutive 30/100 homer season and it would surprise me if he didn't hit .300 again this season as well.

And 30/100/.300 should be fairly pedestrian mark for Tex (no pun intended). He certainly has the potential to mix in a few 40/125/.315 seasons in there.

[Cowtipper]

He got off to a pretty slow start earlier this year, so slow I was thinking about dumping him from my fantasy team, which I didn't do (although I did dump Sabathia for Lance Berkman and Geovany Soto...I'm still mad at myself about that).

Anyway, Teixeira put up a great season, one of the best of his career. I think he may have Hall of Fame potential.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I've always considered Tex overrated, but he did lead the league in HRs this year, so he's got some black ink.

If Tex makes it to 500 HRs, he'll be in the HOF. If he makes it to 475 HRs, he'll have a lot of convincing to do. Personally, I think he'll fall short of 500 HRs, but he may make it in on being remembered as better than he was.

[nyykan_t]

I've always considered Tex overrated, but he did lead the league in HRs this year, so he's got some black ink.

If Tex makes it to 500 HRs, he'll be in the HOF. If he makes it to 475 HRs, he'll have a lot of convincing to do. Personally, I think he'll fall short of 500 HRs, but he may make it in on being remembered as better than he was.

Agreed. He is overrated. He needs to produce a few more 150 OPS+ seasons for me to consider him as a HOFer.

[Bravesfan1984]

I've always considered Tex overrated, but he did lead the league in HRs this year, so he's got some black ink.

If Tex makes it to 500 HRs, he'll be in the HOF. If he makes it to 475 HRs, he'll have a lot of convincing to do. Personally, I think he'll fall short of 500 HRs, but he may make it in on being remembered as better than he was.

By the time Texeria would hit 500 home runs I doubt it would be automatic anymore so he would have to have a lot more especially since his is a first basemen.

[White Knight]

By the time Texeria would hit 500 home runs I doubt it would be automatic anymore so he would have to have a lot more especially since his is a first basemen.

No, it's back to automatic again with the PED era over.

[Bravesfan1984]

No, it's back to automatic again with the PED era over.

I am not sure the PED is over yet. I think it is going to linger in peoples mind for a long time. How many first basemen do you want from this era? Only a certain amount are going to get in not all of them

[White Knight]

I am not sure the PED is over yet. I think it is going to linger in peoples mind for a long time. How many first basemen do you want from this era? Only a certain amount are going to get in not all of them

I think there are certainly a few players on masking agents covering up their steroids, and players on HGH (not detectable, but the player still has to be careful as trainers are closely watched by the feds), but nowhere near the level it was at from say 1995-2003. How many players who started in 2001 or later will get to 500? Not all that many. Pujols will, Ryan Howard might, Prince Fielder probably will. Tex is a toss-up. Anyone else likely, mind is drawing a blank.

[Bravesfan1984]

I think there are certainly a few players on masking agents covering up their steroids, and players on HGH (not detectable, but the player still has to be careful as trainers are closely watched by the feds), but nowhere near the level it was at from say 1995-2003. How many players who started in 2001 or later will get to 500? Not all that many. Pujols will, Ryan Howard might, Prince Fielder probably will. Tex is a toss-up. Anyone else likely, mind is drawing a blank.

Adam Dunn and Carlos Delgado both have really good chances.

[Cowtipper]

Okay, so that's two.

[Cougar]

I think there are certainly a few players on masking agents covering up their steroids, and players on HGH (not detectable, but the player still has to be careful as trainers are closely watched by the feds), but nowhere near the level it was at from say 1995-2003. How many players who started in 2001 or later will get to 500? Not all that many. Pujols will, Ryan Howard might, Prince Fielder probably will. Tex is a toss-up. Anyone else likely, mind is drawing a blank.

Adam Dunn and Carlos Delgado both have really good chances.

Delgado's first full season was 1996. He actually had a cup of coffee in 1993.

[Cougar]

I'm abstaining from the poll...he's on a path toward borderline for now.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

he's on a path toward borderline for now.

Agreed. Assuming he doesn't improve any more, then it will depend on how well he ages. If we're looking at his peak right now, I predict he'll end up somewhere in between Jim Rice and Eddie Murray in terms of career value.

[Paul Wendt]

I agree but I won't "pigeon hole" the guy.

[jjpm74]

This year definitely helped his case.

[Second Base Coach]

He is on a HOF pace right now, and he has good players around him.

This could be very interesting. Consider this... his HOF chances may be dependent on who bats in front of him later in his career.

This is a moot point if Jeter and Damon plan on playing ten more years, together, in front of Teixeira, and ARod hits more behind Teixeira than in front of him. That stuff is out of his control.

But he sure is hitting in a nice line-up, eh? For right now anyway.

But I had the same feeling about Will Clark there for awhile, hitting behind Butler and in front of Mitchell. How long did that last?

The Yankees are a different sort. They can buy a great top of the lineup anytime they want.

For now I voted no, as his career does not appear to be even half over yet, and he seems to have trouble coming up with more than 180 hits a season, which makes him dependent on homers and RBI opportunities to make his HOF case. And that takes quality teammates, which he controlled as much as he could by moving to the one team that pretty buys a good team every year.

[Sockeye]

Another big year from Mark Teixeira. At the age of 30 his career numbers now stand at

1214 Games
5328 PA's
4605 AB's
780 Runs
1318 Hits
300 Doubles
16 Triples
275 Home Runs
905 RBI
614 Walks
.286 AVG
.377 OBP
.537 SLG
134 OPS+
2475 Total Bases
36.6 WAR
952 Runs Created
7.4 RC/G
.672 OW%
237 Batting Runs
22.1 Batting Wins
13 Black Ink
70 Gray Ink
86 HOF Monitor
28 HOF Standards
.305 TAv
36.4 WARP

He's roughly 3 great seasons (2005 level) or 4 very good seasons (2010 level) from being HOF worthy. At this point given his age and consistancy I'd say he is close to a HOF lock. I put his chances in the 90% range.