Daisuke Matsuzaka
Now that reportedly Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka will be posted, there's been speculation as to how well he'll do. Here's my take on all this:
One thing I will say about Japanese pitchers: they're often used in ways we here in the states would deem abusive. Nomo likely would not have come had he not feared his arm would give out under the abuse he was taking there, and thereby ended his baseball career. As it was, though Lasorda wasn't a great improvement over his Japanese use, he did experience arm troubles later in his career. I'd be very cautious of that factor.
As for Matsuzaka individually, here's the major league equivalent for his last five seasons along with his actual Japanese record for that time. I'll also put in his projected average for the five years, which seems to be the best predictor I can give for what a Japanese pitcher will do in the majors.
Code:
First, his actual Japanese record
Year G W L SV IP H HR BB K BF team g
2002 14 6 2 0 73.33 60 13 15 78 302 140
2003 29 16 7 0 194 165 13 63 215 801 140
2004 23 10 6 0 146 127 7 42 127 601 133
2005 28 14 13 0 215 172 13 49 226 831 136
2006 25 17 5 0 186.33 138 13 34 200 700 136
Now the major league conversion of that data:
Year G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA
2002 16 4 4 0 85.00 75 19 19 80 43 37 3.95
2003 32 12 11 0 212.33 205 19 78 220 111 98 4.15
2004 26 8 8 0 164.00 166 11 55 137 88 78 4.26
2005 30 14 11 0 231.33 220 19 63 238 110 96 3.72
2006 27 14 8 0 202.67 177 19 43 211 83 71 3.14
The five year average of the above:
G W L SV IP H HR BB K R ER ERA
26 11 8 0 179.00 169 17 52 177 87 76 3.82
Jim Albright
Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
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Originally Posted by J25nadroj2042
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