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Thread: Daisuke Matsuzaka

  1. #1
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    Daisuke Matsuzaka

    Now that reportedly Japanese ace Daisuke Matsuzaka will be posted, there's been speculation as to how well he'll do. Here's my take on all this:

    One thing I will say about Japanese pitchers: they're often used in ways we here in the states would deem abusive. Nomo likely would not have come had he not feared his arm would give out under the abuse he was taking there, and thereby ended his baseball career. As it was, though Lasorda wasn't a great improvement over his Japanese use, he did experience arm troubles later in his career. I'd be very cautious of that factor.

    As for Matsuzaka individually, here's the major league equivalent for his last five seasons along with his actual Japanese record for that time. I'll also put in his projected average for the five years, which seems to be the best predictor I can give for what a Japanese pitcher will do in the majors.

    Code:
    First, his actual Japanese record
    
    Year	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K		BF	team g
    2002	14	6	2	0	73.33	60	13	15	78		302	140
    2003	29	16	7	0	194	165	13	63	215		801	140
    2004	23	10	6	0	146	127	7	42	127		601	133
    2005	28	14	13	0	215	172	13	49	226		831	136
    2006	25	17	5	0	186.33	138	13	34	200		700	136
    
    Now the major league conversion of that data:
    
    Year	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
    2002	16	4	4	0	85.00	75	19	19	80	43	37	3.95
    2003	32	12	11	0	212.33	205	19	78	220	111	98	4.15
    2004	26	8	8	0	164.00	166	11	55	137	88	78	4.26
    2005	30	14	11	0	231.33	220	19	63	238	110	96	3.72
    2006	27	14	8	0	202.67	177	19	43	211	83	71	3.14
    
    
    The five year average of the above:
    
    G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
    26	11	8	0	179.00	169	17	52	177	87	76	3.82
    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  2. #2
    Good luck to him in MLB.

  3. I hope the Yankees can get him. He looks good.

  4. #4
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    cant wait to see him put the pin stripes on

    do you know how big he is? (size and weight)

    how about if he is a lefty or righty.

    He will make good friends with Matsui the rest of the team will have no idea what they are saying.
    LETS GO YANKEES!

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by J25nadroj2042
    cant wait to see him put the pin stripes on

    do you know how big he is? (size and weight)

    how about if he is a lefty or righty.

    He will make good friends with Matsui the rest of the team will have no idea what they are saying.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YAwmW2S-xX4

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by J25nadroj2042
    cant wait to see him put the pin stripes on

    do you know how big he is? (size and weight)

    how about if he is a lefty or righty.

    He will make good friends with Matsui the rest of the team will have no idea what they are saying.
    6' 0", 187 #, right-handed

    See http://www.baseball-reference.com/bu...suke_Matsuzaka for more details

  7. #7
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    The guy does have promise and potential. People claim that he throws the gyroball, but I'm not sure about that.

  8. #8
    Mr Albright:

    What guidelines did you use to convert his stats in the Japanese League to MLB-like stats?
    In other words, what parameters did you use to do so?

    Thanks

  9. #9
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    The details can be found here:

    New Pitcher Projection Method

    If you have specific questions about it, I'll try to answer them.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by jalbright
    The details can be found here:

    New Pitcher Projection Method

    If you have specific questions about it, I'll try to answer them.

    Jim Albright
    Cannot open it

  11. #11
    Those numbers are interesting but it looks like there is almost no projected dropoff in K/IP or in HR/IP from Japan to MLB, which seems counterintuitive. I'll have to take a look at other Japanese pitchers who made the jump from Japan to MLB.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Agente Libre
    Those numbers are interesting but it looks like there is almost no projected dropoff in K/IP or in HR/IP from Japan to MLB, which seems counterintuitive. I'll have to take a look at other Japanese pitchers who made the jump from Japan to MLB.
    There's a 11.6% drop in strikeouts per IP (he's getting more innings by virtue of a 162 game MLB schedule versus a 133-140 Japanese game schedule), and homers are up 23.6% per IP in the numbers I am basing this on, as set forth in the article. Remember, this is for pitchers, not hitters, so HR should be up and strikeouts down. Also, please note my calculations include guys who played in the majors and then in Japan. My pitching projections are not as good as my hitting projections. I think this is mostly because pitchers are not as predictable as hitters (one arm injury and it can be all over for a pitcher).

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  14. #14
    Does anyone know the exact timetable for the Matsuzaka posting process? I believe there is a 15-day bidding period starting Nov. 1, then a winner is announced, and then the winner has 30 days to finalize a contract or Matsuzaka goes back to Japan for 2007. Is this correct?

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Agente Libre
    Does anyone know the exact timetable for the Matsuzaka posting process? I believe there is a 15-day bidding period starting Nov. 1, then a winner is announced, and then the winner has 30 days to finalize a contract or Matsuzaka goes back to Japan for 2007. Is this correct?
    I hope so. Its quick, so we don't have to hear about this all offseason long.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Agente Libre
    Those numbers are interesting but it looks like there is almost no projected dropoff in K/IP or in HR/IP from Japan to MLB, which seems counterintuitive. I'll have to take a look at other Japanese pitchers who made the jump from Japan to MLB.
    Somebody else emailed me about this, and there is an error. I based IP on how many batters the pitcher was projected to face, and since we get a projection that has a higher rate of walks and hits, the IP is reduced. It certainly has the impact you describe on K/IP, but it shouldn't cause the issue you describe in HR/IP. However, on balance, I think this error yields too conservative a projection overall, as the reduction in IP works against the pitchers in BB/IP and H/IP. Of course, the individual stats are out of whack, and I have to decide the best way to handle it. Then I've got a lot of work to straighten out.

    Another complicating factor, but one which I can't eliminate from a projection is the impact of rounding.
    Last edited by jalbright; 10-21-2006 at 01:38 PM.
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  17. #17
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    Here's an article from Yahoo Sports which details Matsuzaka's extreme workload (among other things): http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_yl...=tsn&type=lgns

    Also, here's a Wikipedia answer to the timeline of the posting process: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  18. #18
    Thanks, Jim.

    Do you know when the posting process officially starts? I've heard Nov. 1 but not sure.

    According to the article, the posting phase lasts 40 days, followed by up to 30 days for contract negotiations. If correct, that could mean Matsuzaka isn't under MLB contract until January 2007.

  19. #19
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    I can't vouch for the Wikipedia info without checking who put that up, but it sounds about right. November 1 is what I've heard, but I haven't seen anything official on that. However, I can't imagine the date would come before that, given that both the Japan Series and the World Series have just begun. For good reason, they don't like this between season stuff to overshadow the championship deciding series.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  20. #20
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    Now for the promised revision to the projection:

    Code:
    Year	G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
    2002	16	4	4	0	85.00	75	19	19	80	43	37	3.97
    2003	34	13	10	0	224.33	205	19	78	220	111	97	3.89
    2004	28	9	7	0	177.67	166	11	55	137	88	77	3.88
    2005	33	17	10	0	250.67	216	19	61	233	105	90	3.22
    2006	29	15	7	0	217.33	173	19	43	206	80	66	2.75
    And the five year average:

    Code:
    G	W	L	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	K	R	ER	ERA
    28	12	8	0	191.00	167	17	51	175	85	73	3.46
    It's a pretty techincal fix in a spreadsheet, as I had to avoid the issue of circular definitions, but it results in a larger number of IP, but now the K, BB, H and HR allowed are all now explicitly based on the IP figure.

    As I said earlier, he comes out looking even better than before. My main concern with him, as with any Japanese league pitcher, is how much mileage is already on that arm of his.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  21. #21

    nice work

    Hi Jim--

    The Japanese pitchers are a big topic of discussion over on Baseball Primer. Have you translated (or can you?) any of the other pitchers and hitters heading to the US? I'm thinking mainly of Kuroda and Igawa.

    Thanks.

    Darren

  22. #22
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    Darren,

    I will be doing my article for Baseball Guru now that the season has ended. No promises as to when it's done, as I am busy with more pressing issues. Kuroda is highly likely to be discussed there, since he's a free agent and I believe without checking he's in the group I promised last year to evaluate (young enough and good enough, in short). Igawa isn't a free agent and I have no reliable indication he will be posted. Thus, unless he makes my criteria for a "Player to watch", he won't be discussed.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mischa
    6' 0", 187 #, right-handed

    See http://www.baseball-reference.com/bu...suke_Matsuzaka for more details
    lol he's the same size as me.

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalbright
    Darren,

    I will be doing my article for Baseball Guru now that the season has ended. No promises as to when it's done, as I am busy with more pressing issues. Kuroda is highly likely to be discussed there, since he's a free agent and I believe without checking he's in the group I promised last year to evaluate (young enough and good enough, in short). Igawa isn't a free agent and I have no reliable indication he will be posted. Thus, unless he makes my criteria for a "Player to watch", he won't be discussed.

    Jim Albright

    --I've read that Igawa will be/has been posted. Not sure that is 100% accurate, but he would be an interesting addition to a weak FA crop of SP this winter. With so many teams in need, he should be worth some big bucks in both posting fee and contract (although probably no more than 1/3 of what Matsuzaka will bring in either case). With Boros expecting #1 starter money (5/75?!) for Matsuzaka, Igawa might be a better option for most teams.

  25. #25
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    Until there's an official announcement by the team a la Matsuzaka, any article on whether or not a player will be posted is nothing more than speculation. My Japanese contacts are dubious that Igawa will be posted, which makes sense given the general reluctance of Japanese teams to use this system. After a few years of doing a lot of work based on rumors such as this that didn't pan out, I've decided that unless it's an official statement by the team, I'm not doing the work unless the guy meets the criteria for another category in my article, such as a player to watch. My current schedule reinforces that decision.

    Jim Albright
    Seen on a bumper sticker: If only closed minds came with closed mouths.
    Some minds are like concrete--thoroughly mixed up and permanently set.
    A Lincoln: I don't think much of a man who is not wiser today than he was yesterday.

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