A Smarter Way to Invest in Future Pitching

[Alvin6688]

According to:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twinci...s/15455916.htm

Johan Santana becomes a free agent in 2009 at the age of 29. I think the Yankees will be willing blow baseball out of the water with an enormous deal that brings Santana to New York. If not, they should...it's much wiser to spend the money on him than on Giambi or even A-Rod.

This is 2009 - exactly 2 years in the future. What do we do between then and now? I say give Mussina is two year deal. Mussina can pitch for us in 2007 as the 3rd starter, and in 2008 as #4. Then he retires and we bring Santana in.

With Randy Johnson, Giambi, Sheffield, Wright, Mussina, and Pavano off our payroll, we can afford to give Santana atleast $100 million for 5 years.

I was already reluctanty about signing big name B+ guys like Zito, Smicht, etc to long term deals, and now I'm even more against cashing out precious money prematurely.

I don't think we need them. Consider a 2007 rotation like:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Matsuzaka
3. Mussina
4. Pitcher from Sheffield Trade
5. Randy Johnson

Nowhere near our 1998 rotation, but it sets up 2008 and 2009.

I've heard a few trade rumors based around Sheffied for pitching:

1) The Cubs offered a package revolving around some combination of SP Angel Guzman, LHP Scot Eyre and RHP Bobby Howry.

2) Phillies willing to center a deal around Brett Myers if Yankees give back something fair that includes Sheffield.

3) Angels are also interested if they don't land with the big free agents. They have a plethora of starting pitching and an overly deep bullpen (compared to their horrific offense).

Overall I think we can get something quite decent for Sheff.

With Sheff gone, we move Matsui to DH and play Melky at LF. Giambi plays 1B (his defense isn't pretty, but one weak link won't kill us). Meanwhile we get corner outfielders with amazing arms. Our line-up:

1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Abreu
4. Giambi
5. A-Rod
6. Matsui
7. Cano
8. Posada
9. Melky

This is still Murder's Row, except with Melky it hopefully won't look like it's waiting to be executed.

In 2008, the rotation gets younger and better.

1. Philip Hughes
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Matsuzaka
4. Mussina
5. Sheff Pitcher

We may not have a lefty, but if all goes well this is a nasty rotation anyway. Johnson's departure opens up $16 million, which I feel we should invest into expanding our farm system.

Our bullpen will be young and deep in the next few years thanks to the subtle defferences that Cashman has made by bringing in Bruney and also having Rasner and Karsten. We could even reach out for Ray King or Steve Kline (both free agents, I think), or Jamie Walker if Detroit doesn't wrap him up - if these guys don't cost absurd money.

Then 2009 comes, we lose bunch of the expensive veterans on our payroll (Giambi, Pavano, Moose). We use part of this cash to try our very best and land Johan Santana (hey, nobody expected A-Rod ).

Now look at what we have as our starting four:

1. Santana
2. Hughes
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wang

Murderer's Row, meet your new friends: they call themselves the Firing Squad.

[EvanAparra]

Isn't this the 3rd time ive seen this post?

[tripledup22]

According to:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twinci...s/15455916.htm

Johan Santana becomes a free agent in 2009 at the age of 29. I think the Yankees will be willing blow baseball out of the water with an enormous deal that brings Santana to New York. If not, they should...it's much wiser to spend the money on him than on Giambi or even A-Rod.

This is 2009 - exactly 2 years in the future. What do we do between then and now? I say give Mussina is two year deal. Mussina can pitch for us in 2007 as the 3rd starter, and in 2008 as #4. Then he retires and we bring Santana in.

With Randy Johnson, Giambi, Sheffield, Wright, Mussina, and Pavano off our payroll, we can afford to give Santana atleast $100 million for 5 years.

I was already reluctanty about signing big name B+ guys like Zito, Smicht, etc to long term deals, and now I'm even more against cashing out precious money prematurely.

I don't think we need them. Consider a 2007 rotation like:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Matsuzaka
3. Mussina
4. Pitcher from Sheffield Trade
5. Randy Johnson

Nowhere near our 1998 rotation, but it sets up 2008 and 2009.

I've heard a few trade rumors based around Sheffied for pitching:

1) The Cubs offered a package revolving around some combination of SP Angel Guzman, LHP Scot Eyre and RHP Bobby Howry.

2) Phillies willing to center a deal around Brett Myers if Yankees give back something fair that includes Sheffield.

3) Angels are also interested if they don't land with the big free agents. They have a plethora of starting pitching and an overly deep bullpen (compared to their horrific offense).

Overall I think we can get something quite decent for Sheff.

With Sheff gone, we move Matsui to DH and play Melky at LF. Giambi plays 1B (his defense isn't pretty, but one weak link won't kill us). Meanwhile we get corner outfielders with amazing arms. Our line-up:

1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Abreu
4. Giambi
5. A-Rod
6. Matsui
7. Cano
8. Posada
9. Melky

This is still Murder's Row, except with Melky it hopefully won't look like it's waiting to be executed.

In 2008, the rotation gets younger and better.

1. Philip Hughes
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Matsuzaka
4. Mussina
5. Sheff Pitcher

We may not have a lefty, but if all goes well this is a nasty rotation anyway. Johnson's departure opens up $16 million, which I feel we should invest into expanding our farm system.

Our bullpen will be young and deep in the next few years thanks to the subtle defferences that Cashman has made by bringing in Bruney and also having Rasner and Karsten. We could even reach out for Ray King or Steve Kline (both free agents, I think), or Jamie Walker if Detroit doesn't wrap him up - if these guys don't cost absurd money.

Then 2009 comes, we lose bunch of the expensive veterans on our payroll (Giambi, Pavano, Moose). We use part of this cash to try our very best and land Johan Santana (hey, nobody expected A-Rod ).

Now look at what we have as our starting four:

1. Santana
2. Hughes
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wang

Murderer's Row, meet your new friends: they call themselves the Firing Squad.

Hmmmmmm at least 100 million dollars.... are you kidding that is a crazy amount of money. and who knows will santana be worth getting? who knows the next 2 years might be his worst. and phil hughs replacing wang as #1? he might not be good enough to be # 1 in his 2nd year. and matsuzka....who knows the yankees will get him? did you think this through or did you just put it up?

now let the critcizim begin.

[EvanAparra]

Hmmmmmm at least 100 million dollars.....

Yeah, the George would never go for that......

[Alvin6688]

100 mil for 5 years wasn't my price, it was from the article. I don't, however, disagree with the price much. Assuming his 07 and 08 performances don't deviate much from those of his past four years, I do in fact think it' worth it.

Having a Santana like the one the Twins have had is worth a big price, especially in the post-season. (And anyone who brings up Santana's loss to Zito should be permanently kicked off the internet.)

We've been paying Giambi $20mil/year, Mussina $19mil/year, RJ $16mil/year, and A-Rod $16mil/year ($9mil he gets from Texas). Take a look at those names. Then think about a Santana in his prime at a comparable price.

Imagine if we had Santana instead of Giambi against Detroit.

Hmmmmmm at least 100 million dollars.... are you kidding that is a crazy amount of money. and who knows will santana be worth getting? who knows the next 2 years might be his worst.

Santana has been one of the most consistent pitchers these past 4 years. If you decide not to put him into the equation because HE might deteriorate, then you might as well not pay for ANY pitchers at all.

"Santana might fall short, so I'll go and sign Zito at $75mil/5 years (Boras' minimum, btw), or Schmidt from the NL, or build my team's future around Ted Lilly. Or put my hopes on Clippard and Cox. Or wait for PAVANO." Does that sound right?

You have to implement your strategy around certain assumptions and take certain chances. I'm saying in my post that I'd rather gamble on a 2009 Santana then on the current rendition of Zito or Schmidt.

Of course, if Santana's 2007 and 2008 seasons do end up being bad for some reason, then there's a very simple solution: Get somebody else in 2009. Jeremy Bonderman, Mark Prior, Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, and Ben Sheets will also be in the free agent class of 2009. '09 will be Bonderman's age 26 season and Peavy's age 28 year.

Now think about it another way: Suppose you decide to just forget Santana exists, that he could be yours, and that he'd be in his prime. How does this effect your decision for 2007, 2008, and 2009?

You still have Wang, RJ, Matsuzaka (I'm assuming with all of this that we get him, otherwise replace his spot with Zito), and one other guy (Sheff trade/Karstens/Rasner/Pavano). Hughes will still be Hughes, good or bad. Those are a given as far as the Santana debate is concerned.

What's left? Mussina. Do we resign Moose, or go for a second big FA signing to add to Matsuzaka? Based on the people I've talked to, about half like Moose and half want a new free agent (Zito/Schmidt/Pettite/etc). So it could go either way. And this is WITHOUT CONSIDERING JOHAN SANTANA.

So, what I'm arguing is this: Since the only 'drawback' of saving money for a possible Santana signing is that you get Moose over Zito/etc, and many people don't even think Moose is a drawback, you might as well get Moose, save a whole ton of money, and use it to lure Santana over to New York.

Of course, there are some people who think that in addition to the $16mil we pay Randy and the $8 mil we pay Pavano, we should sign Matsuzaka for $13mil*4 years (+$25mil to talk), sign Zito for $15mil*5 years (Scott Boras' minimum asking price), AND re-sign Mussina to $11mil*2yrs. Those people are unrealistic.

and phil hughs replacing wang as #1? he might not be good enough to be # 1 in his 2nd year. and matsuzka....who knows the yankees will get him? did you think this through or did you just put it up?

Phil Hughes may or may not be #1. If so, then great. If not, then fine, he goes wherever he belongs. And the Yankees may or may not get Matsuzaka. If they do, then great. If not, just replace all instances of his name in my post with 'Barry Zito' or somesuch.

Finally, I don't open my mouth if I haven't already though something through. I'm no expert, but I think I've made sense so far.

[SprewellPJ]

Imagine if we had Santana instead of Giambi against Detroit.



Santana has been one of the most consistent pitchers these past 4 years. If you decide not to put him into the equation because HE might deteriorate, then you might as well not pay for ANY pitchers at all.

I definitely agree with this one

[Evangelion]

You looking far too much in the future. You have no idea what will happen to Santana at this point until 2009. Not to mention Santana prefer staying in Minnesota or not. Remember, not everyone want to leave and play for a team offering more money.

If you had Santana instead of Giambi? You likely would have kept the Tigers to one or two runs, but still would have lost since the Tigers pitching still shut down the Yankees' offense. A starting pitcher doesn't change the fact the Yankees' offense got flat out beat.

I won't put any pitcher into that equation since you have no clue what will happen to him. Sure, do it for the up and coming season, but don't start predicting what's going to happen the following season and beyond since many things could happen in the season yet to be played.

You're making assumptions what's going to happen.

Lol, how do you know none of those pitchers will receive a contract extension? 2009 would be two seasons away. Like I have said, many things could happen. If we entering 2008 season and none had contract extension, I could understand you assumption, but not all of them want to become FA and rather play we're they're playing.

Good post, Alvin6688. I hope I didn't sound rude. Just wish to have a discussion with you since I question a couple of your points you made.

[Murderer's Row]

Hmmmm.... The Firing Squad. I like it! Now on to the post. It seems that you are looking a bit to far unfortunately. Also, instead of the pitcher from the Sheffield trade, we could use Barry Zito who I'm sure would be better. Also, we still have Darrell Rasner and Jeff Karstens and we could always go with them in any case.

[cmaff05]

I really can't see the Twins ever letting Santana get to free agency, so it's pointless to speculate this far in advance.

[TonyStarks]

You looking far too much in the future. You have no idea what will happen to Santana at this point until 2009. Not to mention Santana prefer staying in Minnesota or not. Remember, not everyone want to leave and play for a team offering more money.

If you had Santana instead of Giambi? You likely would have kept the Tigers to one or two runs, but still would have lost since the Tigers pitching still shut down the Yankees' offense. A starting pitcher doesn't change the fact the Yankees' offense got flat out beat.

I won't put any pitcher into that equation since you have no clue what will happen to him. Sure, do it for the up and coming season, but don't start predicting what's going to happen the following season and beyond since many things could happen in the season yet to be played.

You're making assumptions what's going to happen.

Lol, how do you know none of those pitchers will receive a contract extension? 2009 would be two seasons away. Like I have said, many things could happen. If we entering 2008 season and none had contract extension, I could understand you assumption, but not all of them want to become FA and rather play we're they're playing.

Good post, Alvin6688. I hope I didn't sound rude. Just wish to have a discussion with you since I question a couple of your points you made.

I have to agree here.
This is way too far into the Future.

You cannot count on trying to sign a pitcher 2 yrs from now.
I'm sure the the Twins will know how much the market will command for Johann and they will most likely make a deal to trade the guy.
Who could then just resign with that team he's dealt to.

Also, let me ask you this.
What if Hughes turns out to be a stud kinda like Liriano, in '08.
What if Karstens or Rastner solidifies his spot on the rotation and becomes a 14-16 game winner.

You have Wang, Hughes, Raster/Karstens who are all studs.
Now you think the Yanks will go out and give Santana $100M??
There's just too many variables.

Too many things could happen.....(SEE BRIEN TAYOR)

[DoubleX]

According to:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twinci...s/15455916.htm

Johan Santana becomes a free agent in 2009 at the age of 29. I think the Yankees will be willing blow baseball out of the water with an enormous deal that brings Santana to New York. If not, they should...it's much wiser to spend the money on him than on Giambi or even A-Rod.

This is 2009 - exactly 2 years in the future. What do we do between then and now? I say give Mussina is two year deal. Mussina can pitch for us in 2007 as the 3rd starter, and in 2008 as #4. Then he retires and we bring Santana in.

With Randy Johnson, Giambi, Sheffield, Wright, Mussina, and Pavano off our payroll, we can afford to give Santana atleast $100 million for 5 years.

Welcome Alvin. It's obvious you've given this a lot of thought and it's always nice to see that.

That being said, I disagree with you.

You're assuming the Twins will let Santana play out his contract - the Twins, in recent years, have actually been pretty good about giving extensions to their own stars. Brad Radke and Torii Hunter come to mind. If you have a talent like Santana, I think the Twins will make every effort to get him extended unless a few things happen: 1) Injuries, which can very easily derail any pitcher's career; and 2) Santana gets an agent like Scott Boras (he might have him already, I don't know), who convinces Santana to leave Minnesota because he can make a boatload on the free agent market. The second scenario is quite possible, but we've seen players in recent years respond to loyalty overtures, if their original makes an effort to keep them, they'll give the hometown discount instead of free agency; Roy Oswalt extending with the Astros this past year is a good example.

I was already reluctanty about signing big name B+ guys like Zito, Smicht, etc to long term deals, and now I'm even more against cashing out precious money prematurely.

I'm not also not too high on either of those guys. I actually like Zito in general because he eats a lot of quality innings, he's young, and he's proven in the AL, but I don't like him the 14-16 million a year he's likely to make. Signing Zito would be like the Mussina signing in 2001 - we'll get a good pitcher, but one who will never be the ace we expected and certainly not worth the pricetage. Schmidt, he's good but he doesn't eat innings. Only twice in the past five seasons and three times in the past seven, has he made it past 200 innings. That's going to put a lot of strain in our bullpen and make us scrambling for spot starters throughout the season.

I don't think we need them. Consider a 2007 rotation like:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Matsuzaka
3. Mussina
4. Pitcher from Sheffield Trade
5. Randy Johnson

Nowhere near our 1998 rotation, but it sets up 2008 and 2009.

Wang, Mussina, and Johnson all appear to be staying and all will be in the rotation if healthy (Johnson is somewhat a question mark). But the team still has to decide whether to pickup Wright's option (I'm hoping for no) and what the heck to do with Carl Pavano. If either of those players are back and healthy, they will be in the rotation, whether we like it or not.

I'm kind of indifferent to Matsuzaka. I don't believe he'll be as good as advertised or worth any close to the huge amount it will take to sign him (first the huge fee to his Japanese team and then the actual contract). After seeing the Yankees buy their way to Irabu and Contreras, only for both to struggle with the team, I don't want to see the team spend even more for Matsuzaka.

I've heard a few trade rumors based around Sheffied for pitching:

1) The Cubs offered a package revolving around some combination of SP Angel Guzman, LHP Scot Eyre and RHP Bobby Howry.

2) Phillies willing to center a deal around Brett Myers if Yankees give back something fair that includes Sheffield.

3) Angels are also interested if they don't land with the big free agents. They have a plethora of starting pitching and an overly deep bullpen (compared to their horrific offense).

Overall I think we can get something quite decent for Sheff.

I think the team will get something pretty decent, though not great. Sheffield's coming off a major injury, is 38, will be a one year rental (and a disgruntled one at that), and his pricetag is pretty hefty given his age and injuries (he wouldn't make 13 mil this year as a free agent). So I don't think we should expect the farm for Sheffield, and I think it will take something substantial included in the deal to get Brett Myers from the Phillies. I'd be happy with a couple of pretty good prospects.

With Sheff gone, we move Matsui to DH and play Melky at LF. Giambi plays 1B (his defense isn't pretty, but one weak link won't kill us). Meanwhile we get corner outfielders with amazing arms. Our line-up:

1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Abreu
4. Giambi
5. A-Rod
6. Matsui
7. Cano
8. Posada
9. Melky

This is still Murder's Row, except with Melky it hopefully won't look like it's waiting to be executed.

I agree completely with moving Matsui to DH. However, I'd actually move Damon to LF and Cabrera to CF. Damon's arm is a noodle, Cabrera's arm would be a big help in CF. It would take some time to better learn the position, but Cabrera was a CFer in the minors.

As for Giambi, I would do everything in my power to trade him, including picking up a good chunk of his contract. I'd think the Angels could be enticed in the right deal in which we a pitcher (Ervin Santana is probably too much) and someone like Casey Kotchman or Kendry Morales back to play 1B.

In 2008, the rotation gets younger and better.

1. Philip Hughes
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Matsuzaka
4. Mussina
5. Sheff Pitcher

We may not have a lefty, but if all goes well this is a nasty rotation anyway. Johnson's departure opens up $16 million, which I feel we should invest into expanding our farm system.

Our bullpen will be young and deep in the next few years thanks to the subtle defferences that Cashman has made by bringing in Bruney and also having Rasner and Karsten. We could even reach out for Ray King or Steve Kline (both free agents, I think), or Jamie Walker if Detroit doesn't wrap him up - if these guys don't cost absurd money.

Then 2009 comes, we lose bunch of the expensive veterans on our payroll (Giambi, Pavano, Moose). We use part of this cash to try our very best and land Johan Santana (hey, nobody expected A-Rod ).

Hopefully Johnson will retire, but he could be very close to 300 wins in 2008, and that could very well entice him to come back. He's at 280 now, so 2008 would seem to be the year.

Bruney was a terrific find, he looks to be a closer in the making, just have to see if he can do it over a whole season. I'd rather see Rasner and/or Karstens in the rotation, and I think we will see that to some extent next year. You also have to factor in JB Cox in the bullpen, and he should be with the team by 2008 at the latest, and quite possibly some point next year.

In the rotation, Tyler Clippard is another farmhand that could become a factor for the rotation in 2008 and perhaps even at some point next year. He's not Philip Hughes, but he's pretty good.

Now look at what we have as our starting four:

1. Santana
2. Hughes
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wang

Murderer's Row, meet your new friends: they call themselves the Firing Squad

That would be murderers row, but it's assuming a lot:

1) Santana - It's assuming he'll become a free agent and is still healthy then.

2) Hughes - It's assuming he does succeed in the Majors. Right now, I'm very afraid that he's a Rich Harden/Mark Prior type. Great stuff, but can't stay healthy. Hughes has been coddled in the minors, never being asked to go deep into games and pile on pitches and innings. That's good in terms of keeping his arm healthier in the longterm, but it gives him little durability and will make him more prone to injuries and struggles when he's asked to pitch 200+ innings in the Majors. Josh Beckett is a good example of this. Until this year, he never pitched more than 178 innings, and thus never had a season in which he was consistently going out there every 5th day from beginning to end. He did that this year and he struggled.

3) Matsuzaka - Assuming the Yankees are the top bidding team (which they probably will be if they want to be), and assuming he succeeds with the Yankees and isn't another Contreras or Irabu. If he is, then he could be gone by 2009.

4) Wang - Assuming he keep his sinking stuff sinking. Wang does not have an out pitch, and without one, he's walking a very fine line between success and getting hammered. That's the tale with pitchers that throw hard sinking stuff like him. Derrek Lowe is a good example. If that stuff drops a little in velocity and/or does sink as much as its supposed to, it will get creamed. Wang has got to find a way to get hitters more off balance in the box, because right now, they can readily make contact, and if he loses a little bit of his command, contact will turn into killing the ball.

[Evangelion]

Beckett was also throwing mainly the fastball the majority of the time when starting. He's not the greatest example to use about a pitcher being coddle in the minors than asked to take the toll of a MLB season. Granted, your point is valid, but with other factor played into Beckett's struggles, like preventing him from developing blisters between start prevent him from developing his curveball, which he needed to do. Sox's caution, as well as Beckett, is well warrented with his blister problems though.

Hughes is highly praised, but wait until he come to MLB. If you end up with an injury prone pitcher like Prior and Harden, recently being injury prone himself, then you don't got nothing to be honest.

Of course, not every young arm end up injury prone, obviously Oswalt, Kazmir and many others are proof of that. The idea youngest are not durable develop during this era and after what happen to Prior and Wood burning out.

Matsuzaka could be the next Irabu, he might not. I doubt Cashman moving in for Matsuzaka with that thought. Still, Japanese players coming to MLB doesn't have the highest success rate in recent history. Suzuki obviously being the best followed by Matsui, who's numbers were monsterous in Japan and turned into very good in MLB, but not the best like in Japan.

Wang's K total wasn't that impressive. While I don't believe that's the best method of determine a pitcher's effectiveness, I still believe you should be rank up more than 70 K's a full season. Webb had over 100 more K's than Webb and players with low K ratio that a season like Wang tend not to experience success all that long.

[DoubleX]

Beckett was also throwing mainly the fastball the majority of the time when starting. He's not the greatest example to use about a pitcher being coddle in the minors than asked to take the toll of a MLB season. Granted, your point is valid, but with other factor played into Beckett's struggles, like preventing him from developing blisters between start prevent him from developing his curveball, which he needed to do. Sox's caution, as well as Beckett, is well warrented with his blister problems though.

Beckett may not have been coddled in the minors, but the blister problems had the same effect - he never got a chance to build up his durability and I believe that played a role in why he struggled this year. He never went through a season in which his arm was being used almost every 5th day for 6 months like it was this year. The blisters (and I think some leg problems) allowed him to rest his arm at length throughout his career. And thus his arm was fresher going down the stretch. The reasoning behind his lack of durability is different than Hughes, but the effect is still there - when young pitchers don't get used to pitching regularly deep into the season, they will struggle.

[mwiggins]

Santana has said that he really doesn't like pitching in the cold weather. In a radio interview this summer he strongly implied that he wasn't that enthused about pitching in the Twin's new outdoor ballpark. If he goes anywhere after his contract is up, I gotta think it'll be somewhere south.

[Mariano_Rivera]

Excellent analysis but I think that you're looking to far ahead and murderers row is getting a little old at that point

According to:

http://www.twincities.com/mld/twinci...s/15455916.htm

Johan Santana becomes a free agent in 2009 at the age of 29. I think the Yankees will be willing blow baseball out of the water with an enormous deal that brings Santana to New York. If not, they should...it's much wiser to spend the money on him than on Giambi or even A-Rod.

This is 2009 - exactly 2 years in the future. What do we do between then and now? I say give Mussina is two year deal. Mussina can pitch for us in 2007 as the 3rd starter, and in 2008 as #4. Then he retires and we bring Santana in.

With Randy Johnson, Giambi, Sheffield, Wright, Mussina, and Pavano off our payroll, we can afford to give Santana atleast $100 million for 5 years.

The question will the Twins lock him up or not. Santana may want bigger bucks than the small market Twins can offer but I doubt he`ll be as easy to get as that. You also forget other people coming in to replace Johnson, Giambi, Sheffield, Wright, Mussina and Pavano. Probably Daisuke Matsuzaka or an expensive B+ guy to replace him (not much of a save in payroll increase or not much change), Melky to come into the lineup when Giambi is gone (huge decrease), Sheffield did not play last year so nobody is really replacing him (decrease ing), Wright will be replaced by Phillip Hughes (huge decrease), Mussina will be replaced probably by Rasner/Karstens/Clippard (huge decrease) and Pavano I won`t count (see Sheffield). You also forgot about Abreu and possibly Rivera.

All in all a large decrease in payroll but who knows where Santana will be and what will happen to the young guys will be at that time. Not to mention possible trades.

I was already reluctanty about signing big name B+ guys like Zito, Smicht, etc to long term deals, and now I'm even more against cashing out precious money prematurely.

I don't think we need them. Consider a 2007 rotation like:

1. Chien-Ming Wang
2. Matsuzaka
3. Mussina
4. Pitcher from Sheffield Trade
5. Randy Johnson

Nowhere near our 1998 rotation, but it sets up 2008 and 2009.

That sounds about right (if we get Matsuzaka) but I don`t know if we will get a decent pitcher for Sheffield I find prospects a more likely proposition or a first baseman. I think a more likely thing to hope for 2007 is this

1) Wang

2) Matsuzaka

3) Mussina (Scary him being there)

4) Darell Rasner

5) Randy Johnson

Rasner apparently has done well in the AFL so I believe he will get the call ahead of Karstens which I prefer. Cashman has said Hughes will start at Scranton as well and Clippard probably will do the same or he will stay in Trenton.

I've heard a few trade rumors based around Sheffied for pitching:

1) The Cubs offered a package revolving around some combination of SP Angel Guzman, LHP Scot Eyre and RHP Bobby Howry.

Not bad. Guzman is nice and young and may yet do good things and may have just been rushed up because of the Cubs woes. Scott Eyre could be this '07's Villone. Howry looks like a pretty good reliever. That doesn`t look bad but I don`t know how many relievers we need and I would hope for a little more for Sheffield.

2) Phillies willing to center a deal around Brett Myers if Yankees give back something fair that includes Sheffield.

Myers would be awesome!!!! He's an underrated pitcher IMO but he may be a clubhouse cancer.

3) Angels are also interested if they don't land with the big free agents. They have a plethora of starting pitching and an overly deep bullpen (compared to their horrific offense).

coughcoughGiambi/Lackeycoughcough

Overall I think we can get something quite decent for Sheff.

Sheffield gave out a list of teams he would like to go to to Cashman (or rather his attorney did). The Cubs are rumored to be on the list. So I`d call them the favorites because Sheffield wouldn`t mind going their that much so that will probably raise his stock also they are rumored to be the most aggresive team with the Phillies. How 'bout Giambi+Sheffield for Myers

I wish.

If we can get Cotchman out of the Angels than I say go for it. I`d prefer pitching but a guy like Cotchman might be preferable to younger prospects.

With Sheff gone, we move Matsui to DH and play Melky at LF. Giambi plays 1B (his defense isn't pretty, but one weak link won't kill us). Meanwhile we get corner outfielders with amazing arms. Our line-up:

1. Damon
2. Jeter
3. Abreu
4. Giambi
5. A-Rod
6. Matsui
7. Cano
8. Posada
9. Melky

This is still Murder's Row, except with Melky it hopefully won't look like it's waiting to be executed.

I still wouldlike to dump Giambi but that's alright. Hopefully we won`t have any sophmore slumps from Melky. The offense still looks great.

In 2008, the rotation gets younger and better.

1. Philip Hughes
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Matsuzaka
4. Mussina
5. Sheff Pitcher

We may not have a lefty, but if all goes well this is a nasty rotation anyway. Johnson's departure opens up $16 million, which I feel we should invest into expanding our farm system.

This is nasty but if everything goes wrong it isn`t. You're leaving out Rasner again and Clippard may be ready in '08 as well. Still Hughes and Clippard could be Prior and Wood for all we know and maybe we get bullpen help for Sheffield. Maybe the mileage on Matsuzaka's arm starts to show or maybe they don`t even get him. How does '08 rotation look like with wort cased scenario:

1) Wang

2) Mussina

3) ?

4) ?

5) ?

Worst cased scenario is pretty bad.

Our bullpen will be young and deep in the next few years thanks to the subtle defferences that Cashman has made by bringing in Bruney and also having Rasner and Karsten. We could even reach out for Ray King or Steve Kline (both free agents, I think), or Jamie Walker if Detroit doesn't wrap him up - if these guys don't cost absurd money.

Then 2009 comes, we lose bunch of the expensive veterans on our payroll (Giambi, Pavano, Moose). We use part of this cash to try our very best and land Johan Santana (hey, nobody expected A-Rod ).

100% in agreement except that Santana will be back with the Twins somehow IMHO.

Now look at what we have as our starting four:

1. Santana
2. Hughes
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wang

Murderer's Row, meet your new friends: they call themselves the Firing Squad.

That is sick if everything goes right but Santana I doubt will be in pinstripes, Highes could be injured and Matsuzaka could be injured.

The only sure thing for '09 is Wang and even he could be injured (though it is less likely than the others)

[Alvin6688]

I think they'll start Hughes around 6 innings per game and then work him somewhat quickly up to 7+ innings, and finally remove the restrictions a few months prior to whatever date they set for him to join the majors. He'll probably be a number 5 spot starter this season, kind of like Rasner/Karstens/Lidle in 2006, except with more playing time then what those guys got. I don't know that much about training young arms, though.

As for the Santana idea, I understand where you guys are coming from when you say that its too far into the future. And I agree that anything could happen (though I believe that Santana's health is a smaller question mark than a possible extension from the Twins).

The nice thing, however, is that the issue with Santana doesn't change how we will likely approach our pitching problem this offseason. Basically the only difference is that Moose becomes more attractive than Zito because of a deal with Moose is more short-term and therefore costs less.

About Sheffield: I'd go over and kiss Cashman if he could somehow package Sheff, Giambi, and some spare parts in a trade to the Angels for good pitching. That would be the stone-cold nut-high of awesome trades. If that doesn't happen (and it probably won't), we should still be able some kind of decent arm with just Sheff + add-ons.

Also, let me ask you this.
What if Hughes turns out to be a stud kinda like Liriano, in '08.
What if Karstens or Rastner solidifies his spot on the rotation and becomes a 14-16 game winner.

You have Wang, Hughes, Raster/Karstens who are all studs.
Now you think the Yanks will go out and give Santana $100M??
There's just too many variables.

Well if Hughes becomes Liriano, Karsterns/Rasner becomes the new Mussina, Wang stays Wang, we land Matsuzaka and he doesn't disappoint, and our bullpen is strong, then forget Santana. Spend the money obtaining a back-up for Mo and that's the dynasty right there. I doubt it'll be that easy.

Also, instead of the pitcher from the Sheffield trade, we could use Barry Zito who I'm sure would be better. Also, we still have Darrell Rasner and Jeff Karstens and we could always go with them in any case.

But then what do we do with Sheff? The Yankees have already re-signed him. He needs to go.

This is nasty but if everything goes wrong it isn`t. You're leaving out Rasner again and Clippard may be ready in '08 as well. Still Hughes and Clippard could be Prior and Wood for all we know and maybe we get bullpen help for Sheffield. Maybe the mileage on Matsuzaka's arm starts to show or maybe they don`t even get him.

Well, hopefully atleast half our guys stay healthy. If we don't land Matsuzaka, we immediately go for Zito. You can't really do anything about injuries except hope the team has heart and resiliency. If that's not enough, you just fight hard to the end, hang your hats, and look forward to the next year.

1) Wang

2) Mussina

3) ?

4) ?

5) ?

Worst cased scenario is pretty bad.

Hey! Wasn't that last year's rotation?

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is what could be available to start for us next year...emphasis on COULD.

Guaranteed:
1. CM Wang
2. Randy

Won't cost us:
3. Karstens/Rasner
4. Trade from Sheff/Giambi
5. Pavano

Can buy with money:
6. Mussina
7. Matsuzaka
8. Zito

You're the GM, and you need to pick 5-6 guys from the list above. Assume Wang and Randy are definates. Keep in mind that Randy is gone in 2008. That leaves 3-4 slots. Who do YOU choose?

[Mariano_Rivera]

I think they'll start Hughes around 6 innings per game and then work him somewhat quickly up to 7+ innings, and finally remove the restrictions a few months prior to whatever date they set for him to join the majors. He'll probably be a number 5 spot starter this season, kind of like Rasner/Karstens/Lidle in 2006, except with more playing time then what those guys got. I don't know that much about training young arms, though.

That sounds about right but I think he might come up in the bullpen before he starts.

As for the Santana idea, I understand where you guys are coming from when you say that its too far into the future. And I agree that anything could happen (though I believe that Santana's health is a smaller question mark than a possible extension from the Twins).

The nice thing, however, is that the issue with Santana doesn't change how we will likely approach our pitching problem this offseason. Basically the only difference is that Moose becomes more attractive than Zito because of a deal with Moose is more short-term and therefore costs less.

Also because Moose is better than Zito in the short term.

About Sheffield: I'd go over and kiss Cashman if he could somehow package Sheff, Giambi, and some spare parts in a trade to the Angels for good pitching. That would be the stone-cold nut-high of awesome trades. If that doesn't happen (and it probably won't), we should still be able some kind of decent arm with just Sheff + add-ons.

Agreed there 100%

Well if Hughes becomes Liriano, Karsterns/Rasner becomes the new Mussina, Wang stays Wang, we land Matsuzaka and he doesn't disappoint, and our bullpen is strong, then forget Santana. Spend the money obtaining a back-up for Mo and that's the dynasty right there. I doubt it'll be that easy.

But then what do we do with Sheff? The Yankees have already re-signed him. He needs to go.

He needs to goI don`t know how good of a pitcher we would get for him though.

Well, hopefully atleast half our guys stay healthy. If we don't land Matsuzaka, we immediately go for Zito. You can't really do anything about injuries except hope the team has heart and resiliency. If that's not enough, you just fight hard to the end, hang your hats, and look forward to the next year.

If we can`t get Matsuzaka the best course of action may be to either try and work out a trade or start rebuilding a bit. I really don`t like Zito he is nowhere near worth the money they are throwing at him. Contrast to Matsuzaka who I believe will live up to the hype.

Here is what could be available to start for us next year...emphasis on COULD.

Guaranteed:
1. CM Wang
2. Randy

Won't cost us:
3. Karstens/Rasner
4. Trade from Sheff/Giambi
5. Pavano

Can buy with money:
6. Mussina
7. Matsuzaka
8. Zito

You're the GM, and you need to pick 5-6 guys from the list above. Assume Wang and Randy are definates. Keep in mind that Randy is gone in 2008. That leaves 3-4 slots. Who do YOU choose?

With the trade Wang is a definite #1 (if you want to make a case for Matsuzaka then fine). Johnson is also definite at #4 or #5. i`ll put him at #4 to satisfy his ego.

1) Wang

2) ?

3) ?

4) Johnson

5) ?

We then have in order of how valuable they would be

Matsuzaka
Mussina
Rasner
Zito
Sheffield/Giambi trade
Karstens
Pavano

Because their is no way we get Zito and Matsuzaka I`ll take out Zito so it looks like this.

Matsuzaka (20 million including 28 million posting price)
Mussina (12 millon)
Rasner (less than 1 million)
Sheffield/Giambi trade (save money because of Sheffield/Giambi)
Karstens (see Rasner)
Pavano (5 million, I think)

With Wang as a definite and Johnson as a definite it looks like this if I get what i want:

1) Wang

2) Matsuzaka

3) Mussina

4) Johnson

5) Rasner

This leaves out the pitcher from the Sheffield/Giambi trade, Karstens and Pavano.

Karstens won`t hurt us with him not being there and the Sheffield Giambi trade could be for something other than a pitcher. Pavano however would have to be a really expensive LM. If Myers were not under contract for 2007 I might advocate putting Johnson in the bullpen and let him handle both lefties and be the LM. However, it's not worth the aggravation he`ll cost us with Myers. If this happens Wang, Matsuzaka and Mussina are the shoo-ins for the rotation with Pavano, Karstens, Rasner and Johnson competing for the 3 and 4 spots. This also has Rasner and Karstens competing for a spot on the team so only one of them will come out. We`ll say Rasner. Because of Pavano's huge contract he will probably end up being the 5th starter no matter what. However, this may be a good thing. When players are fighting for a spot they get hungry and they play harder.

Liek I said before it will probably end up like this coming out of ST if they get Matsuzaka and resign Mussina (the first is possible and the second is likely).

1) Wang

2) Matsuzaka

3) Mussina

4) Johnson

5) Rasner

And I thus conclude my rambling

[Alvin6688]

Also, the Yankees have stated that they've discussed internally the option of signing Andy Pettite to a two-year deal. Pettite has stated that he would consider pitching for two more years in NY and then retiring. Pettite is 34 and suffered some elbow problems in the beginning of the year, but was really strong towards the end. Is something like $18 mil/2 years worth it for the guy? What about an incentive-laden deal?

Also (this is speculation) based on the past, Andy and Roger Clemens have always moved around together, so if Pettite comes to NY Roger may give it a thought as well. The guy is 44, though, and having 2 44-year-olds on a pitching staff that's supposed to be looking young just doesn't feel right to me. To be fair, it would only be a two-year deal with Pettite and a one-year deal with Clemens. I'd like to hear some thoughts on that.

Your top two guys are young (Wang and Mats); then you have three veterans in the back (Pettite, Clemens, Johnson); finally you have younsters waiting in the wings (Rasner, Hughes, Clippard). The rotation could afford up to two injuries and still be okay, because you could have Rasner/Karstens fill in for one of them, and Pavano/Hughes fill in for the other.

Do I like it? Not really. It's an expensive rotation, and it's old. I could, however, understand why the Yankees would atleast think about it. First, it's got two lefties. Also, I do like the way the young guys are in with long contracts while the old guys have very short ones. Aside from Matsuzaka, you don't have to make any long-term AND expensive commitments. Finally, I like the way you bring in these old guys to fill in the gap for one-two years while the young guys get just a bit more time to develop. As the old guys leave, the young guys come in un-rushed but ready to go.

If you do this, 2007 isn't the season that gives the Yankees their facelift, but rather 2008-2009. At that time, a whole crapload of old, expensive people go, and the young guys are no longer THAT young. Giambi, Abreu, Pavano, Johnson, Clemens, and Pettite are all gone.

[Mariano_Rivera]

Also, the Yankees have stated that they've discussed internally the option of signing Andy Pettite to a two-year deal. Pettite has stated that he would consider pitching for two more years in NY and then retiring. Pettite is 34 and suffered some elbow problems in the beginning of the year, but was really strong towards the end. Is something like $18 mil/2 years worth it for the guy? What about an incentive-laden deal?

Also (this is speculation) based on the past, Andy and Roger Clemens have always moved around together, so if Pettite comes to NY Roger may give it a thought as well. The guy is 44, though, and having 2 44-year-olds on a pitching staff that's supposed to be looking young just doesn't feel right to me. To be fair, it would only be a two-year deal with Pettite and a one-year deal with Clemens. I'd like to hear some thoughts on that.

Your top two guys are young (Wang and Mats); then you have three veterans in the back (Pettite, Clemens, Johnson); finally you have younsters waiting in the wings (Rasner, Hughes, Clippard). The rotation could afford up to two injuries and still be okay, because you could have Rasner/Karstens fill in for one of them, and Pavano/Hughes fill in for the other.

Do I like it? Not really. It's an expensive rotation, and it's old. I could, however, understand why the Yankees would atleast think about it. First, it's got two lefties. Also, I do like the way the young guys are in with long contracts while the old guys have very short ones. Aside from Matsuzaka, you don't have to make any long-term AND expensive commitments. Finally, I like the way you bring in these old guys to fill in the gap for one-two years while the young guys get just a bit more time to develop. As the old guys leave, the young guys come in un-rushed but ready to go.

If you do this, 2007 isn't the season that gives the Yankees their facelift, but rather 2008-2009. At that time, a whole crapload of old, expensive people go, and the young guys are no longer THAT young. Giambi, Abreu, Pavano, Johnson, Clemens, and Pettite are all gone.

Any incentive laden deal is something I`m in favor of. I think they could be met with at least moderate success in the AL and moderate success is the standard.