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Thread: Mickey Mantle V. Willie Mays

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRon View Post
    By OPS+, true. But the difference between the two is completely walks driven. That makes Mantle a more valuable batter, but not necessarily a better hitter. Career-wise, Mays had higher rates in BA, doubles rates, triples rates. They were identical in SA. Mantle had a tiny ISO edge and a modest HR rate advantage. Just in terms of hitting the ball they are a wash, except that Mays did it for many more games. Mantle's advantage came in getting more walks, thus making a smaller percentage of outs per PA. That's value as a batter, not necessarily as a hitter.
    Mays had significantly more PA's as well. Mantle had 9,907 career PA's, Mays had 12,496 career PA's. Though 1967 Mays had 9,813 career PA's and had a career .583 slugging percentage.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  2. #102
    Sort of interesting that the only player who shows up in both their career ten most similar lists is Mel Ott.

    Master Melvin - not just a nice guy!

  3. #103
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    Mays' competition included Aaron, part of Snider's peak, the end of Musial's peak, Mathews, Frank Robinson, Banks, Clemente, Cepeda, McCovey off the top of my head. Mantle had who, Kaline, as the only first ballot sort who was a direct contemporary. He had the second half o Williams' career, the start of Yaz', Rosen's peak, he was winding down he had Oliva. Maris, Colavito and Minoso were the major stars. I am not even including guys like Billy Williams, Santo or Ashburn, much less the Boys of Summer, sans Duke. Is there really a comparison? Maybe the floor of the AL was higher. Who knows?

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    Mays' competition included Aaron, part of Snider's peak, the end of Musial's peak, Mathews, Frank Robinson, Banks, Clemente, Cepeda, McCovey off the top of my head. Mantle had who, Kaline, as the only first ballot sort who was a direct contemporary. He had the second half o Williams' career, the start of Yaz', Rosen's peak, he was winding down he had Oliva. Maris, Colavito and Minoso were the major stars. I am not even including guys like Billy Williams, Santo or Ashburn, much less the Boys of Summer, sans Duke. Is there really a comparison? Maybe the floor of the AL was higher. Who knows?

    The information is pretty easy to find. Just look at their baseball reference page and advanced batting.


    During Mays' career

    LgBA: .264
    LgOBP: .329
    LgSLG: .400
    LgOPS: .730

    Mantle

    LgBA: .256
    LgOBP: .329
    LgSLG: .387
    LgOPS: .715

    So you have a difference and it follows the hypotheses of multiple users that Mays played in a stronger league. But the difference isn't too extreme.
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

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  5. #105
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    Can you find the mean raw OPS (not OPS+) from the top 20 hitters during each year of their careers? I think there is a curve of sorts, where the cream of the league impacts OPS+ more.
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Can you find the mean raw OPS (not OPS+) from the top 20 hitters during each year of their careers? I think there is a curve of sorts, where the cream of the league impacts OPS+ more.
    including them or with them removed?

    501 PA minimum?
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  7. #107
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    Removed. Nor sure about PA. Maybe whatever it is to qualify for league leads?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Removed. Nor sure about PA. Maybe whatever it is to qualify for league leads?
    Ok, I did 400 PA's

    HTML Code:
    YEAR	NL	AL
    1951	0.876	0.864
    1952	0.841	0.835
    1953		0.852
    1954	0.892	0.847
    1955	0.894	0.846
    1956	0.875	0.889
    1957	0.873	0.850
    1958	0.867	0.865
    1959	0.889	0.851
    1960	0.836	0.845
    1961	0.891	0.904
    1962	0.882	0.859
    1963	0.837	0.837
    1964	0.861	0.864
    1965	0.858	0.841
    1966	0.872	0.834
    1967	0.859	0.832
    1968	0.801	0.803
    1969	0.896	
    1970	0.948	
    1971	0.870	
    1972	0.868	
    1973	0.897	
    
    Top 20, Mantle and Mays removed. At least 400 PA's. Means, not the actual recalculated OPS of the top 20.
    Last edited by sturg1dj; 03-21-2017 at 08:04 AM. Reason: fixed a number
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  9. #109
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    Can we figure their OPS+ with those guys removed?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  10. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    Can we figure their OPS+ with those guys removed?
    Unadjusted:

    HTML Code:
    YEAR	Mantle	Mays
    1951		94
    1952	111	
    1953	105	
    1954	110	121
    1955	123	118
    1956	131	105
    1957	139	118
    1958	120	116
    1959	106	108
    1960	113	112
    1961	126	110
    1962	127	113
    1963		115
    1964	117	115
    1965	99	122
    1966		106
    1967	99	92
    1968	97	107
    1969		89
    1970		95
    1971		104
    1972		92
    1973		
    
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  11. #111
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    How do you do that voodoo?

    Can we draw any conclusions from the data?
    "By common consent, Ruth was the hardest hitter of history; a fine fielder, if not a finished one; an inspired base runner, seeming to do the right thing without thinking. He had the most perfect co-ordination of any human animal I ever knew." - Hugh Fullerton, 1936 (Chicago sports writer, 1893-1930's)

    ROY / ERA+ Title / Cy Young / WS MVP / HR Title / Gold Glove / Comeback POY / BA Title / MVP / All Star / HOF

  12. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by sturg1dj View Post
    How is drawing walks not a hitting skill?
    I didn't say that drawing walks is not a hitting skill. Of course it is a skill, and one with value. That wasn't my point, and I think you know that.

    In the many thousands of times at the plate that Mantle and Mays did not walk, their performance was basically identical- Mays the slightest bit higher ability to get on base by a hit, Mantle the slightest bit higher ability to get extra bases on hits. And, Mays maintained that ability over thousands of additional at bats.

  13. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigRon View Post
    I didn't say that drawing walks is not a hitting skill. Of course it is a skill, and one with value. That wasn't my point, and I think you know that.

    In the many thousands of times at the plate that Mantle and Mays did not walk, their performance was basically identical- Mays the slightest bit higher ability to get on base by a hit, Mantle the slightest bit higher ability to get extra bases on hits. And, Mays maintained that ability over thousands of additional at bats.
    Right, but so what?

    The only thing that you wrote that should matter is Mays did what he did longer.
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sultan_1895-1948 View Post
    How do you do that voodoo?

    Can we draw any conclusions from the data?
    Haha, I do statistics for a living and while I wait for code to run I have a baseball dataset I can manipulate using SQL. Basically batting and pitching totals by year. During non-work hours I have a SQL server set up on my personal computer that has event level data starting at 1953 from retrosheet. So you can get some more in-depth information from me from about 6pm-10pm, haha.


    I think the conclusions sort of back what we have been seeing:

    1) Mantle had better peak seasons
    2) That being said Mays was still very good
    3) Mays did it longer


    So the debate remains whether you like longevity, peak, potential or if you place major emphasis on defense.

    Longevity = Mays
    Peak = Mantle
    Potential = Mantle
    Defense = Mays
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  15. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    Mays' competition included Aaron, part of Snider's peak, the end of Musial's peak, Mathews, Frank Robinson, Banks, Clemente, Cepeda, McCovey off the top of my head. Mantle had who, Kaline, as the only first ballot sort who was a direct contemporary. He had the second half o Williams' career, the start of Yaz', Rosen's peak, he was winding down he had Oliva. Maris, Colavito and Minoso were the major stars. I am not even including guys like Billy Williams, Santo or Ashburn, much less the Boys of Summer, sans Duke. Is there really a comparison? Maybe the floor of the AL was higher. Who knows?
    This shows how the NL basically had all the Black superstar ballplayers in the early years of integration. The AL never had an Aaron or a Mays or a Robinson or a Campanella or a Banks or a McCovey in the 1950s or for most of the 1960's. If you think about it when did the AL have it's first Black superstar ballplayer? Reggie Jackson?
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    This shows how the NL basically had all the Black superstar ballplayers in the early years of integration. The AL never had an Aaron or a Mays or a Robinson or a Campanella or a Banks or a McCovey in the 1950s or for most of the 1960's. If you think about it when did the AL have it's first Black superstar ballplayer? Reggie Jackson?
    how would you define that? Larry Doby was a pretty big star for awhile.

    But yeah, your point still stands. The interesting thing is the NL were the first to jump on board with integration and they got the superstars but it did not really help them in the world series until the mid 60's with those cards and dodger teams. The Yankees continued to dominate for many years.
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  17. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg1dj View Post
    how would you define that? Larry Doby was a pretty big star for awhile.

    But yeah, your point still stands. The interesting thing is the NL were the first to jump on board with integration and they got the superstars but it did not really help them in the world series until the mid 60's with those cards and dodger teams. The Yankees continued to dominate for many years.
    I was thinking of that when I wrote the post to which Honus responded. But actually after 1953 the Yankees were not so dominant in the WS. They split with Brooklyn in 1955 and 1956 and then with the Braves in 1957 and 1958. They lost to the Pirates, they beat the Reds, they beat the Giants then Koufax happened. They totally dominated the AL, that is for sure. But the WS, not so much at least compared to the run from 1927-1953 where they won 15 out of 16 times.

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by PVNICK View Post
    I was thinking of that when I wrote the post to which Honus responded. But actually after 1953 the Yankees were not so dominant in the WS. They split with Brooklyn in 1955 and 1956 and then with the Braves in 1957 and 1958. They lost to the Pirates, they beat the Reds, they beat the Giants then Koufax happened. They totally dominated the AL, that is for sure. But the WS, not so much at least compared to the run from 1927-1953 where they won 15 out of 16 times.
    From 1947 - 1964 (18 seasons - post integration which was what I was responding to) The Yankees made it to the World Series 15 times and won 10 times. That is pretty darn dominant.

    After 1964 they were not in the World Series again until 1976 and did not win another until 1977.

    From 1927-1946 (20 seasons) The Yankees made it to the World Series 11 times and won it 9 times.

    I mean if we are comparing Mays to Mantle it is Mays 1 title Mantle 7 titles.


    If we are only looking at post 1953 until Mantle retired then it is 3-1 Mantle vs. Mays.
    "Batting stats and pitching stats do not indicate the quality of play, merely which part of that struggle is dominant at the moment."

    -Bill James

  19. #119
    Quote Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules View Post
    Also, JR, most of the posters who posted in this thread 10+ years ago no longer post here at BBF. There was no WAR then, also. Win Shares and WARP3 were used back then but nowhere near the extend that WAR is used today in these types of threads. WAR brings forth Mays apparently massive edge in defense over Mantle. Mays had six seasons of 10+ WAR and three more season of 9+ WAR. Mantle only had three 10+ WAR seasons and one other 9+ WAR season.
    Yes. The arguement then was mostly based on OPS+ and some other hitting metrics. Just as a hitter there is a solid argument for mantle but of course there is also position and defense as well as Mays edge in longevity.
    I now have my own non commercial blog about training for batspeed and power using my training experience in baseball and track and field.

  20. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg1dj View Post
    how would you define that? Larry Doby was a pretty big star for awhile.

    But yeah, your point still stands. The interesting thing is the NL were the first to jump on board with integration and they got the superstars but it did not really help them in the world series until the mid 60's with those cards and dodger teams. The Yankees continued to dominate for many years.
    Doby was a star player but he wasn't Mays, Aaron, Robinson, or Banks type of player IMO. From 1949 to 1979 in the National League black ballplayers (counting black Latino ballplayers) won 20 MVP awards in 31 seasons. In the American League over the same period only 9 black ballplayers won an MVP Award. The first black AL MVP was Elston Howard in 1963. By 1963 black ballplayers had already won 10 NL MVP awards.
    Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.-Crash Davis

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