2007 Zip Projections
the 2007 zip projections for the cardinals are up at baseball think factory. you can see the projections here.
you have to take these with a grain of salt but...
the good news: another monster year by pujols; a decent year by edmonds (as his decline continues); a regular year by rolen; a very servicable year from duncan (with less than 500 ab); a servicable year from adam kennedy; 53 rbi from yadier molina (who is projected well above the mendoza line); another good year from carp; a reasonable good year reyes; decent years from wainwright, thompson, and looper (even if moved to the rotation); a bounceback year from izzy
the bad news: they can't project what our rotation is going to look like either; a .346 obp from eckstein; an even worse year from juan enc; a 4.98 era from kip wells
all in all it's not too bad. our core group is still intact and projects to put up decent numbers. the spare parts look servicable. larry borowski's analysis of the projections at viva el birdos actually has the 07 pitching staff outperforming last year's staff (which shouldn't be too hard to do). based on his analysis, the cardinal's pythagorean win/loss record projects out to somewhere between 90-72 and 87-75 (depending on what assumptions are used). that sounds reasonable.
the pecota projections come out next week.