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Thread: How accurate are Win Shares?

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  1. #1
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    How accurate are Win Shares?

    I'd like to have a conversation with respect to the accuracy of the Win Shares system.

  2. #2
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    Here is a chart I did, and I listed WS as one column. WS. Notice how it differs from OPS+ and Relative slugging in some cases to the extreme.

    Win Shares says that Honus Wagner had the greatest season in history. 59 WS. I beg to differ. Ruth/Bonds registered some seasons over 240 OPS+, while Wagner's 1908 OPS+ was a great 205.

    Any thoughts?


    According to Relative Slugging Average. Those in red are pre-1920.

    Code:
    ----------------Rel.SLG-Rel.OBP--Rel.BA.-OPS+-INK--PCA-----WS--TPR
    Ruth, 1920-------2.08----1.47-----1.27---256---16--28.83---51--10.0
    Ruth,1921--------2.07----1.43-----1.29---239---16--24.79---53---9.8
    Bonds, 2001------2.04 ---1.57-----1.27---262---09--20.82---54--12.2
    Ruth, 1923-------1.96----1.55-----1.39---239---16--22.2----55--11.2
    Bonds, 2002------1.96----1.77-----1.45---275---09--20.6----49--11.2
    Gehrig,1927------1.91----1.34-----1.30---221---07--17.17---44---9.1
    Williams, 1941---1.88----1.61-----1.52---235---16--22.1----42---8.8
    Ruth, 1924-------1.86----1.43-----1.30---220---16--20.8----45---8.5
    Foxx,1932--------1.85----1.35-----1.31---205---14--18.54---40---7.2
    Bonds, 2004------1.83----1.76-----1.32---260---09--21.8----53--12.5
    Musial,1948------1.83----1.35-----1.44---200---20--20.30---46---7.3
    Mantle,1956------1.78----1.36-----1.35---210---18--22.96---49---8.8
    Cobb, 1917-------1.78----1.39-----1.54---209---16--19.7----46---8.4
    Hornsby,1922-----1.78----1.31-----1.37---207---23--20.37---42---9.2
    Yaz,1967---------1.77----1.38-----1.38---195---21--16.81---42---6.5
    Wagner,1908------1.70----1.35-----1.43---205---19--18.42---59--10.2
    Cobb,1911--------1.73----1.38-----1.53---196---22--20.74---47---6.4
    Last edited by Bill Burgess; 06-28-2007 at 07:37 PM.

  3. #3
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    Personally...and I know this may SHOCK you guys...but I think PCA is significantly more accurate. Obviously I don't have any way of proving this beyond a shadow of a doubt aside from my own intuition when looking at my conclusions vs. James' conclusions.

    That said, I don't think WS are inaccurate...in general I think they have the right idea. Not sure how to expand on that thought.

  4. Quote Originally Posted by SABR Matt View Post
    Personally...and I know this may SHOCK you guys...but I think PCA is significantly more accurate. Obviously I don't have any way of proving this beyond a shadow of a doubt aside from my own intuition when looking at my conclusions vs. James' conclusions.

    That said, I don't think WS are inaccurate...in general I think they have the right idea. Not sure how to expand on that thought.
    No really, are you serious?

  5. #5
    Win Shares includes fielding and positioning.

    At the very least, compare Wagner's OPS to other SS of his era.

  6. #6
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    OK. YOu guys are not picking up on the many discrepancies. So, I will lead the way in showing some.


    Code:
    ----------------Rel.SLG-Rel.OBP--Rel.BA.-OPS+-INK--PCA-----WS--TPR
    Wagner,1908------1.70----1.35-----1.43---205---19--18.42---59--10.2
    Cobb,1911--------1.73----1.38-----1.53---196---22--20.74---47---6.4
    Here, Honus is shown to have a 59-47 WS lead. Would seem to be a crushing, over-whelming, level of stats. But wait. When we look at them, where's the crushing difference?

    Is somebody telling me that Wagner's being a better fielder worth 12 whole WS points? How is better fielding possible to account for such an avalanche of points?

    Can Wagner really save his team that many runs? Wagner's slight .03 point slg. edge is nullified by Ty's slight .05 point BA lead, plus better running.

    Cobb stole 83 bases, to set a short-lived record, while Honus stole 53 bases. Honus walked 10 more times than Ty. And what about LQ?

    So, where does the 12 points really come from?
    Last edited by Bill Burgess; 06-28-2007 at 07:37 PM.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by Tango Tiger View Post
    Win Shares includes fielding and positioning.

    At the very least, compare Wagner's OPS to other SS of his era.
    I read this post from TT and did a review, with slight modifications, since Win Shares purportedly weigh in defense with offense.

    I'm a big Honus Wagner fan; but IMO too many lionize him as a defensive SS beyond what his defensive performance actually suggests.

    Here's his defense career, seasons from rookie year through considerable playing time in seasons through 1917. Defense runs @ SS are runs saved [+] or lost [-] relative to N.L. average for each season listed.

    For each season, I've listed Wagner's defense runs and the teams/players who surpassed him with the glove [within the N.L. only]@ SS by my metric.

    Season............Notes/Comments.....Wagner D~R......Better Ratings by:

    1901...............61 games, fewer............................................. ........
    than other pos.
    1902..............fewer games @ SS................................................ ....
    [44] than 2B
    1903.............................................. .+1.31..........Aubrey, Bonner

    1904.............................................. .-2.81...........Tinker, Dahlen

    1905.............................................. .+7.10...........Corcoran

    1906.............................................. .+3.87...........Bridwell

    1907.............................................. .+2.64...........Bridwell, Tinker, Doolan

    1908.............................................. .+4.95...........none

    1909.............................................. .+2.87...........Coffey/Dahlen; Tinker;
    .................................................. ......................Hulswitt/Storke

    1910.............................................. .+1.35...........Sweeney, Doolan

    1911.............................................. .+1.58...........Herzog, Bridwell, Tinker
    .................................................. ......................Doolan, Fletcher

    1912.............................................. .+4.09...........Tinker, Hauser

    1913.............................................. .-4.64............Tinker, O'Rourke &
    .................................................. .......................Bridwell; Esmond &
    .................................................. .......................Grant; Doolan

    1914.............................................. +8.15............Maranville, Herzog

    1915..............................................-1.64............Maranville, Herzog,
    .................................................. ......................Fletcher

    1916..............................................-6.30............Maranville, Fletcher,
    .................................................. .....................Bancroft

    1917..............................................-5.41............Olson, Fletcher,
    .................................................. ......................Bancroft ......................and
    .................................................. ......................rookie Rogers Hornsby

    It strikes me than in allocating win shares, offensive shares built up by solid hitters should not by used as leverage to penalized defensive whizzes on competing clubs who do not hit as well. If you are +10 offensively and -7 defensively. your rating may not be all that superior overall to a player [at a key position especially], who is -5 offensively but +18 defensively.
    Last edited by leewileyfan; 07-05-2009 at 05:46 PM.

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