Gehrig/Pujols: Can Al catch Lou?

[Dude Paskert]

1A. Gehrig 1B. Pujols ... Albert doesn't get a separate line. They really stand out defensively, athletically.

Thome, Foxx, Thomas, Mize, Killebrew - all big lumbering guys, not great career defenders, although Thome and Killebrew played third early.

Eddie Murray is more in Gehrig and Pujols mold.

I wouldn't argue that Foxx was a great defender, but he was hardly lumbering...he was about Mantle's size and build, and probably almost as fast. Billy Werber told a great story about Foxx catching him from behind at a field day and winning a 100 yard dash against a whole lineup of speedsters.
Werber prefaced this by saying that he got on Foxx for not hustling for second on balls hit off the Monster, and Jimmie replied that he couldn't get those extra bases because he wasn't fast like Billy. This tells me that lack of effort may have had more to do with Foxx not being a great defender than athletic ability. Jimmie also threw very well, as one would expect from a guy who started as a catcher.

Murray was a good all around athlete, but certainly didn't match guys like Gehrig, Pujols, and Foxx in strength.

[bluesky5]

I wouldn't argue that Foxx was a great defender, but he was hardly lumbering...he was about Mantle's size and build, and probably almost as fast. Billy Werber told a great story about Foxx catching him from behind at a field day and winning a 100 yard dash against a whole lineup of speedsters.
Werber prefaced this by saying that he got on Foxx for not hustling for second on balls hit off the Monster, and Jimmie replied that he couldn't get those extra bases because he wasn't fast like Billy. This tells me that lack of effort may have had more to do with Foxx not being a great defender than athletic ability. Jimmie also threw very well, as one would expect from a guy who started as a catcher.

Didn't know he had that speed, athletic ability or demeanor. I'm not surprised if he didn't put a ton of effort into defense. Kinda sends him one step forward and two back to me. Being drunk or hung over a lot didn't help his hustle or natural speed even if he was hustling.

Murray was a good all around athlete, but certainly didn't match guys like Gehrig, Pujols, and Foxx in strength.

Oh, no of course not. He did manage to be consistent enough for 500 and was a power threat in his day tho.

[PVNICK]

I thought Gehrig had a reputation for being a very awkward fielder, at least early in his career.

[Dude Paskert]

Didn't know he had that speed, athletic ability or demeanor. I'm not surprised if he didn't put a ton of effort into defense. Kinda sends him one step forward and two back to me. Being drunk or hung over a lot didn't help his hustle or natural speed even if he was hustling.

Oh, no of course not. He did manage to be consistent enough for 500 and was a power threat in his day tho.

Splinter made some rather guarded comments about Foxx that suggested he wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed, but still had some good "baseball smarts" and always had a plan for what pitch he was going to sit on from each pitcher. Foxx himself said that he developed his great strength in various competitions with farmhands, like picking up a 50 lb barrel of nails without using one's hands and holding it up for as long as possible. There is a possibly apocryphal story about Foxx being discovered by a scout who was lost and asked for directions when Jimmie was plowing, and Foxx casually picked up the plow with one hand and used it to point in the appropriate direction. Maybe that was one of their farm events, the one-handed plow lift and point...Foxx was apparently very laid back and didn't take anything too seriously. The fact that he moved from C to 3B to 1B at such a young age and with such raw tools suggests to me that Connie Mack didn't see much hope of Jimmie becoming an elite defender and decided to just put him at an "easy" position and enjoy the booming bat...you'd think that such an astute baseball man would have tried to put that speed and arm to use more in the field if possible.

One of the announcers (Kubek?) on NBC back during Ripken first several years always used to make a big point about how much stronger Cal was than Eddie and how Ripken could hit the ball out of the park off a tee and Eddie couldn't. Guess he didn't notice that Cal was hitting twentysomething homers per season at the time and Eddie was hitting thirtysomething. Eddie was probably faster, too.

[bluesky5]

There is a possibly apocryphal story about Foxx being discovered by a scout who was lost and asked for directions when Jimmie was plowing, and Foxx casually picked up the plow with one hand and used it to point in the appropriate direction.

Now that one I've heard before. I'm reading his SABR biography right now. Jimmie Foxx was somewhat Ruth-esque in his exploits and personal tastes, with his own country twist on it.

He did move back to catcher to start '35. 21 full games, did well by all accounts.

[White Knight]

Afraid Not.

OPS
1927 Babe - 1.258
1927 Lou - 1.240

Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH

1927 32 NYY AL 151 691 540 158 192 29 8 60 164 7 6 137 89 .356 .486 .772 1.258 225 417 0 14
1927 24 NYY AL 155 717 584 149 218 52 18 47 175 10 8 109 84 .373 .474 .765 1.240 220 447 3 21

That OPS you mentioned is a virtual tie, so I brought up their stats and it's a lot closer than I thought. Ruth is on top, while Gehrig is on the bottom. Ruth's advantages were that he walked a bit more, and had more power. Gehrig's were that he hit for slightly better average, and was much better with doubles and triples, bringing up his total bases.This to me indicates he was either a lot faster or much better on the bases. Strangely, the stolen bases are close.

If two teammates had the exact same numbers last year, the writers would be very, very divided. We can agree on one thing though. It wouldn't be Justin Verlander, that's for sure.

[fenrir]

1A. Gehrig 1B. Pujols ... Albert doesn't get a separate line. They really stand out defensively, athletically.

Thome, Foxx, Thomas, Mize, Killebrew - all big lumbering guys, not great career defenders, although Thome and Killebrew played third early.

Eddie Murray is more in Gehrig and Pujols mold.

I would say the top five 1B of all-time are Gehrig, Pujols, Foxx, Thomas, and Bagwell in some kind of order.

[bluesky5]

I would say the top five 1B of all-time are Gehrig, Pujols, Foxx, Thomas, and Bagwell in some kind of order.

Wow! Bagwell! What was I thinking! Bagwell is up there for sure. Solid player all around.

[fenrir]

Wow! Bagwell! What was I thinking! Bagwell is up there for sure. Solid player all around.

Yes, a very highly underrated player. Hit for a good average, excellent power, could take a walk, could steal bases, and played good defense. The fact that he isn't already in the HOF is a travesty.

[bluesky5]

Yes, a very highly underrated player. Hit for a good average, excellent power, could take a walk, could steal bases, and played good defense. The fact that he isn't already in the HOF is a travesty.

For sure. Hope him and Biggio go together.

[csh19792001]

One of the announcers (Kubek?) on NBC back during Ripken first several years always used to make a big point about how much stronger Cal was than Eddie and how Ripken could hit the ball out of the park off a tee and Eddie couldn't.

Ripken had arguably the best arm of any SS in history. I've heard several people, including Bill James and John Thorn, say he had the best gun they ever saw. His fielding is much better than people realized; they presumed because he was 6'4, 225 and wasn't fast on the bases that he wasn't agile. In terms of foot speed he was VERY slow, but his footwork and natural reflexes were actually outstanding, especially to his left on balls in the hole (like Jeter).

[csh19792001]

Wow! Bagwell! What was I thinking! Bagwell is up there for sure. Solid player all around.

Q: How many true 5 tool players end up at first base? A: Almost none, ever.

One could argue Bags was one of em, though...

Dierker wouldn't let Bagwell run as much as he wanted, because he was afraid of his superstar getting hurt. The fact is Jeff could have been a 40-40 threat annually in the 90's. Had he been playing for someone with an ethos of Herzog in the 80's I think he would have stolen 30-50 a year in his prime.

[willshad]

In general, most baseball fans seem to have a problem accepting that a modern player could possibly be better than any baseball legend. Great players such as Gehrig are placed on this ridiculously high pedestal by most fans, and for whatever reason, many have a problem accepting the possibility that a modern great like Pujols could possibly be better than a legend like Gehrig.

If the numbers supported it, I would have no problem accepting that a player is better than Gehrig or Ruth. Gehrig's top years easily surpass Pujols' top years in both raw numbers and relative rates. What more proof do you need to show that Gehrig is better?

[fenrir]

If the numbers supported it, I would have no problem accepting that a player is better than Gehrig or Ruth. Gehrig's top years easily surpass Pujols' top years in both raw numbers and relative rates. What more proof do you need to show that Gehrig is better?

As I've said a million times before, it's damn near impossible to post Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig type numbers in today's game unless steroids are involved. If it were possible, it would have been done before, or at least close to it.

Unless steroids become legalized, I guarantee you will NEVER see Babe Ruth or even Lou Gehrig type numbers in baseball again.

It goes for pitchers too. Clemens had to juice up to get into Walter Johnson's league, and he still falls short statistically. Maddux also falls short, Randy Johnson, Pedro, etc. Hell, they also fall way short to Cy Young too. It just seems strange to me that all of the best players and pitchers statistically seemed to play 50-60+ years ago, but whatever.

I'll just state one more time that I think it's unrealistic to expect Pujols or any other great hitters to come close to the batting statistics of Ruth, Gehrig, etc. I'm pretty sure it will never happen. Records like Ruth's career slugging% or his career OPS+ will stand forever.

[Dude Paskert]

Ripken had arguably the best arm of any SS in history. I've heard several people, including Bill James and John Thorn, say he had the best gun they ever saw. His fielding is much better than people realized; they presumed because he was 6'4, 225 and wasn't fast on the bases that he wasn't agile. In terms of foot speed he was VERY slow, but his footwork and natural reflexes were actually outstanding, especially to his left on balls in the hole (like Jeter).

I think Cal set a record for SS assists in a season early in his career, not sure if it still stands. He could throw very well even when off balance and was able to set up very deep because his arm allowed him to make the longer throws with ease. Ripken, Brooks Robinson, and Lou Boudreau are three examples of very slow runners who were also truly elite defenders on the left side of the infield. Right when Weaver moved Cal to SS people started wondering when he'd move back to 3B, but Earl knew what he was doing.

[wrgptfan]

I think Cal set a record for SS assists in a season early in his career, not sure if it still stands. He could throw very well even when off balance and was able to set up very deep because his arm allowed him to make the longer throws with ease. Ripken, Brooks Robinson, and Lou Boudreau are three examples of very slow runners who were also truly elite defenders on the left side of the infield. Right when Weaver moved Cal to SS people started wondering when he'd move back to 3B, but Earl knew what he was doing.

You hit it exactly!

[Joe33]

If it hasn't already been mentioned, you wonder what age Pujols really is.

He's clearly in decline at this stage. How he handles being out of his comfort zone in St Louis remains to be seen, early indications aren't very good.

[csh19792001]

What more proof do you need to show that Gehrig is better?

What makes you think you can directly compare stats from two guys who were separated 75 years?

There is no proof, but all available evidence points to Pujols' competition and pitching being much stronger than Gehrig's. Lou is one of my heroes and always will be, but we have to be honest about this timeline debate.

[willshad]

What makes you think you can directly compare stats from two guys who were separated 75 years?

There is no proof, but all available evidence points to Pujols' competition and pitching being much stronger than Gehrig's. Lou is one of my heroes and always will be, but we have to be honest about this timeline debate.

Isn't that the whole point of the thread?..to compare the two players? If we just throw up our hands and say it's impossible, then why even debate to begin with? If we are indeed we are going to debate it then we have two options: we can compare the two players on raw numbers, or we can compare them on relative numbers. Gehrig wins easily on both counts.

What 'evidence' is there that the league now is better? Even if that is so, then every player during Gehrig's time was playing against the same level of low competition, and inferior pitching, and he still stood out. What more could he and Ruth do? If they had batted .450 every year and drove in 200, then some people would still say it is only because of low level of competition.

I've said this before: people want to penalize Gehrig in two ways, and in the process try to discount both his relative rates and his raw stats. They say his raw stats cannot be taken seriously because he played in such a high scoring era, and that his relative stats cannot be taken seriously, because everyone was still playing 'small ball', and he was hitting home runs. Well to me, you can't have it both ways. If the league was still stuck in the dead ball way of thinking, then why was scoring so high? If it was so easy to hit, then why was only Ruth and Foxx in a few years, able to match Lou's numbers?

The whole basis of sabermetrics is, because comparing raw stats throughout eras is unfair, to compare players based on relative stats. If we are then going to say that the relative stats are also skewed, then there is really no way to even have such debates as this. There is no way to 'prove' that players have gotten better. on average, over time. If anything, the only 'proof' we have points to the fact that the players have remained about the same in quality. This 'proof' is the fact that baseball is a continuous process. Some players playing now also played against guys 20 years ago...and some players playing 20 years ago also played against guys who played 20 years earlier...and so on. This is very important. If the average player was indeed improving at such a rapid rate, then it would not be possible for 35 and 40 year olds to keep up with the ever improving influx of younger, better players. In any case, I think once you reach a certain level, then you max out, and the numbers you put up will remain about the same. Some players can do great in AAA ball , and then flop in the majors...and some players can do good in the majors, and light it up in AAA..but I think that the BEST players wouldn't change. I think if you put Pujols or Kemp in AAA, then they will have about the same numbers, despite the lower 'league quality'

[CTaka]

I wouldn't argue that Foxx was a great defender, but he was hardly lumbering...he was about Mantle's size and build, and probably almost as fast. Billy Werber told a great story about Foxx catching him from behind at a field day and winning a 100 yard dash against a whole lineup of speedsters.
Werber prefaced this by saying that he got on Foxx for not hustling for second on balls hit off the Monster, and Jimmie replied that he couldn't get those extra bases because he wasn't fast like Billy. This tells me that lack of effort may have had more to do with Foxx not being a great defender than athletic ability. Jimmie also threw very well, as one would expect from a guy who started as a catcher.

Murray was a good all around athlete, but certainly didn't match guys like Gehrig, Pujols, and Foxx in strength.

I agree that Foxx should not be described as "lumbering". In "Jimmie Foxx: The Life and Times of a Baseball Hall of Famer" by W. Harrison Daniel, Foxx was quite a track star in high school, running the 80 yard dash in 8.6 seconds (then a high school record), the 220 yard dash in 23 seconds, and high jumping 5 feet 8 inches. Not exactly what I would call "lumbering". And Bill James gives Foxx a fielding grade of "A" in his Win Shares book.

[fenrir]

Isn't that the whole point of the thread?..to compare the two players? If we just throw up our hands and say it's impossible, then why even debate to begin with? If we are indeed we are going to debate it then we have two options: we can compare the two players on raw numbers, or we can compare them on relative numbers. Gehrig wins easily on both counts.

What 'evidence' is there that the league now is better? Even if that is so, then every player during Gehrig's time was playing against the same level of low competition, and inferior pitching, and he still stood out. What more could he and Ruth do? If they had batted .450 every year and drove in 200, then some people would still say it is only because of low level of competition.

I've said this before: people want to penalize Gehrig in two ways, and in the process try to discount both his relative rates and his raw stats. They say his raw stats cannot be taken seriously because he played in such a high scoring era, and that his relative stats cannot be taken seriously, because everyone was still playing 'small ball', and he was hitting home runs. Well to me, you can't have it both ways. If the league was still stuck in the dead ball way of thinking, then why was scoring so high? If it was so easy to hit, then why was only Ruth and Foxx in a few years, able to match Lou's numbers?

The whole basis of sabermetrics is, because comparing raw stats throughout eras is unfair, to compare players based on relative stats. If we are then going to say that the relative stats are also skewed, then there is really no way to even have such debates as this. There is no way to 'prove' that players have gotten better. on average, over time. If anything, the only 'proof' we have points to the fact that the players have remained about the same in quality. This 'proof' is the fact that baseball is a continuous process. Some players playing now also played against guys 20 years ago...and some players playing 20 years ago also played against guys who played 20 years earlier...and so on. This is very important. If the average player was indeed improving at such a rapid rate, then it would not be possible for 35 and 40 year olds to keep up with the ever improving influx of younger, better players. In any case, I think once you reach a certain level, then you max out, and the numbers you put up will remain about the same. Some players can do great in AAA ball , and then flop in the majors...and some players can do good in the majors, and light it up in AAA..but I think that the BEST players wouldn't change. I think if you put Pujols or Kemp in AAA, then they will have about the same numbers, despite the lower 'league quality'

Comparing players who played played 60-70 years part is extremely subjective. Statistics do not tell the whole story. I will point this out again. Only one player (Barry Bonds) was able to come close statistically to a Babe Ruth, or a Lou Gehrig, or Ted Williams, and he did it on steroids. Do you honestly think if Lou Gehrig played today, he would have had multiple seasons with a .700+ Slugging%, and multiple 200+ OPS+ seasons (including a season where he surpassed 220)? If so, then apparently he was FAR more talented than any player who plays today.

The issue for me isn't whether or not Lou Gehrig would be elite. My issue is with people knocking Pujols simply because he hasn't posted video games numbers like Gehrig did, when in reality no non steroid player has been capable of those kind of numbers for over 50+ years. Hell, even with all the flagrant steroid abuse going on, only ONE juicer was able to approach Babe Ruth/Gehrig/Williams type numbers.

[csh19792001]

Isn't that the whole point of the thread?..to compare the two players? If we just throw up our hands and say it's impossible, then why even debate to begin with? If we are indeed we are going to debate it then we have two options: we can compare the two players on raw numbers, or we can compare them on relative numbers. Gehrig wins easily on both counts.

You DO realize that an OPS+ of 200 in 1927 is irreconcilable with an OPS+ of 200 in 2007, right?

You do understand how much harder it is to dominate in today than it was 75 years ago....or do you just think almost all the best players in history just happened to finish their careers more than 5 decades ago?

What's more likely?

We have three options. We can compare them on raw numbers (silly waste of time), or on relative numbers (which doesn't mean much because they're "relative" only in comparison to the average guy in that league, that year). Gehrig "wins easily on both counts" because a good percentage of the competition he was dominating wouldn't even be in the Bigs today. The entire bottom quartile (or perhaps more!) would have their places taken by African American, Latin American, and now even some Asian players that weren't even around in Gehrig's day...save a handful of outliers/novelty acts.

And there is plenty of evidence suggesting that the average player has gotten better and that the game has advanced fundamentally since 1930. And by "plenty" of evidence, I mean "basically ALL the evidence". Stats based on standard deviation of player performance from top to bottom, film, anecdotal information, scouting techniques and global scope, the exponential advances in health and the science of sports nutrition and training, etc. etc.

Go ahead and throw out some facts to challenge/refute the claim that athletes and the average ballplayers are much better today. Or all the evidence supporting/proving that the pre 1950 superstars were just much better than modern guys. I'd like to hear the rationale which has been underpinning posts inspiring sentiments such as the last one for years. This isn't personal; many people feel the way you do....

If you put Pujols or Kemp in AAA, then they will have about the same numbers, despite the lower 'league quality'

I have no idea why you would forward such a silly idea.

[White Knight]

OK, then forget 70 years ago for a minute. Why couldn't Pujols even catch Frank Thomas' best years if he was so good? Why hasn't he ever had a top 30 season? He was great, but also over-rated a lot. He's no top 10 player by a mile.

[willshad]

There are a couple of logical fallacies that need to be addressed here.

First of all, let's assume that the players HAVE improved over time. If the average played has improved so much, then wouldn't it make sense that the BEST players have likewise improved?

Second of all, nobody has answered why, if the new players keep getting better, the older players are not run out of the league at a more rapid pace.

Third of all, if the players are so much better now, why does every all time player list still have the old timers all over the top 10, top, 20 and top 100?

I think it is very possible that many of the best players played nearly 100 years ago. Sometimes random distribution just happens that way.

How exactly are we supposed to 'adjust' for league quality? Do we just reduce Lou's and Babe's stats by 10%? 20%? 50%? Do we then have to adjust EVERY players stats from pre-1930 accordingly?

All these people who claim that the league quality has improved so rapidly..Id love to see their list of top 50 all time players.

The reason Pujols has not had a 200 OPS+ season is because he is not that selective at the plate. It has nothing to do with is hitting ability. Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Bonds, etc were able to get their OPS+ scores so high because they walked 150 times a year. Add 50 walks to every Pujols season and see what he ends up with.

[fenrir]

There are a couple of logical fallacies that need to be addressed here.

First of all, let's assume that the players HAVE improved over time. If the average played has improved so much, then wouldn't it make sense that the BEST players have likewise improved?

Second of all, nobody has answered why, if the new players keep getting better, the older players are not run out of the league at a more rapid pace.

Third of all, if the players are so much better now, why does every all time player list still have the old timers all over the top 10, top, 20 and top 100?

I think it is very possible that many of the best players played nearly 100 years ago. Sometimes random distribution just happens that way.

How exactly are we supposed to 'adjust' for league quality? Do we just reduce Lou's and Babe's stats by 10%? 20%? 50%? Do we then have to adjust EVERY players stats from pre-1930 accordingly?

All these people who claim that the league quality has improved so rapidly..Id love to see their list of top 50 all time players.
)
The reason Pujols has not had a 200 OPS+ season is because he is not that selective at the plate. It has nothing to do with is hitting ability. Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Bonds, etc were able to get their OPS+ scores so high because they walked 150 times a year. Add 50 walks to every Pujols season and see what he ends up with.

Here are the seasons where a player had a Slugging% over .700 (I removed all steroid users from this list)

Rank 	Player (age that year) 	Slugging %	Year	Bats

2.	Babe Ruth+ (25)	.8472	1920	L
3.	Babe Ruth+ (26)	.8463	1921	L
6.	Babe Ruth+ (32)	.7722	1927	L
7.	Lou Gehrig+ (24)	.7654	1927	L
8.	Babe Ruth+ (28)	.7644	1923	L
9.     Rogers Hornsby+ (29)	.7560	1925	R
11.	Jeff Bagwell (26)	.7500	1994	R
12.  Jimmie Fox+ (24)	.7487	1932	R
14.	Babe Ruth+ (29)	.7391	1924	L
15.	Babe Ruth+ (31)	.7374	1926	L
17.	Ted Williams+ (22)	.7346	1941	L
18.	Babe Ruth+ (35)	.7317	1930	L
19.	Ted Williams+ (38)	.7310	1957	L
21.	Frank Thomas (26)	.7293	1994	R
22.	Hack Wilson+ (30)	.7231	1930	R
23.	Rogers Hornsby+ (26)	.7223	1922	R
24.	Lou Gehrig+ (27)	.7212	1930	L
25.	Larry Walker (30)	.7201	1997	L
26.	Albert Belle (27)	.7136	1994	R
27.	Larry Walker (32)	.7100	1999	L
28.	Babe Ruth+ (33)	.7090	1928	L
29.	Al Simmons+ (28)	.7076	1930	R
30.	Lou Gehrig+ (31)	.7064	1934	L
31.	Mickey Mantle+ (24)	.7054	1956	B
32.	Jimmie Foxx+ (30)	.7044	1938	R
33.	Jimmie Foxx+ (25)	.7033	1933	R
34.	Stan Musial+ (27)	.7021	1948	L

Frank Thomas, Bagwell, and Belle all three posted a Slugging% over .700 in a season that was shortened by the strike, and Larry Walker was undoubtedly aided by the hitters paradise known as coors field. Basically, looking at this list, when it comes to Slugging% all of the best hitters ever seemed to play 50-60+ years ago. Again, to me this seems incredibly odd. Hell, even when Mantle played the league wasn't fully integrated, and was inferior to the NL during his playing days.