I'm new to this site, and relatively new to sabermetrics (though I read some of Bill James's books as a kid in the '80s).
I've been working on analyzing the results of the first season (2007) of the Israel Baseball League (IBL - see http://www.israelbaseballleague.com), a professional league which played a 40-game season this past summer. Some of my findings are available on my blog: http://biblemetrics.blogspot.com.
As you can see from my recent posts there, I'm having trouble reconciling the conventional (MLB) run estimation formulas with the IBL stats. About 20% more runs were scored than the predictions.
I suspect that the main element missing is errors. IBL games featured about three times as many errors as in the majors. But none of the run estimators seem to take errors into account.
Has anyone done any work in this direction? I would think that error rates must also be high in the minors - do the run estimators have the same problems there?