BBF 2008 Mock HoF Vote

[DoubleX]

With the release of the official 2008 Hall of Fame ballot, I thought that like last year, we'd conduct our own electionb based on the ballot and compare our results to the BBWAA (whose results will be announced on January 8th). Last year we had 105 votes, so it would be great if we could approach that number again.

Same rules apply as with the BBWAA election - you may vote for up to 10 candidates (but need not vote for 10) and any candidate with at least 75% is elected. You may notice that there is a "None of the Above" option, this is meant to simulate the real life act of submitting a blank ballot (i.e. you feel that no one is worthy).

PLEASE fill out your ballot carefully as I'd rather not make a habit of correcting votes after the fact, so be certain you are voting for everyone you want to vote for (up to 10) before submitting.

Also, please feel free to use this thread to stump for or against any of the candidates.

Here are the 25 candidates:

Brady Anderson (1st year)
Harold Baines (2nd year)
Rod Beck (1st year)
Bert Blyleven (11th year)
Dave Concepcion (15th year)
Andre Dawson (7th year)
Shawon Dunston (1st year)
Chuck Finley (1st year)
Travis Fryman (1st year)
Goose Gossage (9th year)
Tommy John (14th year)
David Justice (1st year)
Chuck Knoblauch (1st year)
Don Mattingly (8th year)
Mark McGwire (2nd year)
Jack Morris (9th year)
Dale Murphy (10th year)
Robb Nen (1st year)
Dave Parker (12th year)
Tim Raines (1st year)
Jim Rice (14th year)
Jose Rijo (1st year)
Lee Smith (6th year)
Todd Stottlemyre (1st year)
Alan Trammell (7th year)

[OleMissCub]

Bert, Hawk, Goose, and Rock for me.

[Erik Bedard]

No slam-dunk candidates this time, so hopefully Gossage will get in in real life (I think we elected him last year).

My ballot consists of the following:

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Goose Gossage
Mark McGwire
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Jose Rijo
Alan Trammell

I'm kinda iffy on a whole bunch of guys here, most notable Dawson, McGwire, Parker, and Rice, with Rijo on there as a throw-in.

[Brad Harris]

I've listed the players on the ballot in order from most to least deserving. Coincidentally, I draw the In/Out Line right after the top ten.

1. Tim Raines
2. Bert Blyleven
3. Alan Trammell
4. Mark McGwire
5. Goose Gossage
6. Dale Murphy
7. Dave Parker
8. Jim Rice
9. Andre Dawson
10. Lee Smith
------------------------
11. David Justice
12. Don Mattingly
13. Jose Rijo
14. Robb Nen
15. Tommy John
16. Chuck Finley
17. Rod Beck
18. Jack Morris
19. Harold Baines
20. Chuck Knoblauch
21. Dave Concepcion
22. Travis Fryman
23. Brady Anderson
24. Todd Stottlemyre
25. Shawon Dunston

[DoubleX]

No slam-dunk candidates this time, so hopefully Gossage will get in in real life (I think we elected him last year).

I thought we elected Gossage last year also, but I checked and we did not. He wasn't even the leading vote-getter among the non-elected players.

Here are our 2007 results in which 105 votes were cast, so a player needed 79 votes in order to get the requisite 75% for election:

Tony Gwynn - 98.10% (103 votes)
Cal Ripken Jr - 96.19% (101 votes)
----------------------------------------
Bert Blyleven - 67.62% (71 votes)
Goose Gossage - 62.86% (66 votes)
Andre Dawson - 42.86% (45 votes)
Mark McGwire - 42.86% (45 votes)
Jim Rice - 40.00% (42 votes)
Alan Trammell - 38.10% (40 votes)
Albert Belle - 30.48% (32 votes)
Lee Smith - 30.48% (32 votes)
Dale Murphy - 27.62% (29 votes)
Don Mattingly - 25.71% (27 votes)
Jack Morris - 20.00% (21 votes)
Dave Parker - 20.00% (21 votes)
Tommy John - 11.43% (12 votes)
Steve Garvey - 9.52% (10 votes)
Harold Baines - 8.57% (9 votes)
Orel Hershiser - 8.57% (9 votes)
Jose Canseco - 6.67% (7 votes)
Dave Concepcion - 6.67% (7 votes)
Bret Saberhagen - 5.71% (6 votes)
----------------------------------------
Paul O'Neill - 4.76% (5 votes)
Jay Buhner - 1.90% (2 votes)
Dante Bichette - 0.95% (1 vote)
Bobby Bonilla - 0.95% (1 vote)
Scott Brosius - 0.95% (1 vote)
Ken Caminiti - 0.95% (1 vote)
Eric Davis - 0.95% (1 vote)
Tony Fernandez - 0.95% (1 vote)
Wally Joyner - 0.95% (1 vote)
Bobby Witt - 0.95% (1 vote)
Devon White - 0.00% (0 votes)

[stuffymcinnis]

The best candidate for election is not even on the ballot .. Albert Belle .. I hated the guy, too, but this snub is absurd and speaks volumes about the election process .. the media holds grudges and voters way overvalue longevity and are addicted to meaningless milestones that can be reached during mediocre seasons

the graph below compares averages for Total Bases, Home Runs, RBI and Runs .. for Belle it is 10 straight years from 1991-2000 .. for everybody else it is the average of their 10 best totals in each category over their entire career .. at the bottom, I've included some historical players who compare with Belle .. again, I hand picked the 10 best totals in each category for all but Belle

TB HR RBI Runs
Belle 321 37 120 95
Rice 322 31 113 97
Parker 300 25 102 87
McGwire 299 48 113 95
Dawson 295 28 98 87
Murphy 291 32 97 97
Mattingly 290 21 98 87
Raines 246 12 61 102
Trammell 241 15 71 85
Baines 262 23 96 75
Justice 240 27 89 79

Musial 356 31 113 120
Aaron 354 42 123 115
Mays 358 43 114 121

Ruth 390 50 150 151

[MadHatter]

Dawson
Morris
Murphy
Gossage
Rice
Smith

NO on Blyleven

[stuffymcinnis]

Albert Belle
Jim Rice
Jack Morris
Bert Blyleven
Rich Gossage

[Brad Harris]

Dawson
Morris
Murphy
Gossage
Rice
Smith

NO on Blyleven

Holy crap! We've got a real BBWAA member here!

[BlueBlood]

What exactly is the argument against Byleven? Did he kill someone or smuggle firearms across the border? I'm just not sure how anyone could argue that those statistics aren't mind blowing.

[Erik Bedard]

His W/L record isn't great, he never won any awards, and was only an All-Star twice. Not saying those have any merit, but those are some of the reasons why people won't vote for him. I think he merits induction, but he's not a top-notch HoFer, he's probably right around the top of the grey area.

[Senor Octobre]

1. Tim Raines
2. Bert Blyleven
3. Alan Trammell
4. Mark McGwire
5. Goose Gossage
6. Dale Murphy
7. Dave Parker
8. Jim Rice
9. Andre Dawson
10. Lee Smith

Ditto for moi... although in the entire scheme of things I do have Davey Concepcion ranked higher.

[NineWorldSeries]

I voted for Blyleven, Dawson, Gossage, Smith, and McGwire. Looking back, I probably should have selected Raines, and Smith was a borderline pick to begin with.

[KCGHOST]

I went with Blyleven, Goose, Big Mac, Raines, and Trammell.

My guess is we might elect Gossage, but that's it.

Wouldn't be surprised if the BBWAA also selects Rice and Dawson.

[AstrosFan]

Tim Raines has barely 61% of the vote. That's just terrible. Here's a guy who is clearly one of the top 100 players ever, almost definitely top 75, possibly top 50, and he can't even make the 75% cut on a ballot with voters that I assume aren't trapped by the lure of triple crown stats.

I voted for Raines, Blyleven, Gossage, and Trammell. Others are close, but I am not confident in voting for them.

[Cowtipper]

His W/L record isn't great, he never won any awards, and was only an All-Star twice. Not saying those have any merit, but those are some of the reasons why people won't vote for him. I think he merits induction, but he's not a top-notch HoFer, he's probably right around the top of the grey area.

Nolan Ryan's W/L record isn't that great either. The following is the analysis of Blyleven that I posted on another website:

"Bert Blyleven. Had a better career winning percentage than Nolan Ryan. Only player with 3,000 plus strikeouts not in the Hall or headed to it. Had 287 wins. Besides Bobby Mathews and Tommy John, that is the highest win total of any pitcher not in the Hall. Now don't give me this mumbo jumbo that he did all this just because he played a long time. Mike Morgan played a long time and finished with a 141-186 record. And if you think he only got those numbers because he played a long time, then same goes for Ryan. Anywho, grey ink has him at 237 points, which is over 50 points higher than the average Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame monitor has him at 120.5 points, which is 20.5 points higher that the likely Hall of Famer. Eight of the 10 players most statistically similar to him are in the Hall. HE BELONGS, 100%."

[Cowtipper]

Here is my list, alphabetically:

Burt Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Dave Parker
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith

[Brad Harris]

Ten people (so far) have voted for Tommy John. I'd like to hear how those people feel about his time missed due to injury, his role in "Tommy John" surgery and subsequent comeback, etc. and how much credit that might play in his Hall credentials?

[MadHatter]

Holy crap! We've got a real BBWAA member here!

So - you're saying what exactly? That I can only have an opinion if I think Blyleven deserves to be in (which I don't).

[Erik Bedard]

I believe what Classic meant was that you vote like a BBWAA member -- that is, against Blyleven.

[Cowtipper]

Tim Raines. The best and most likely of all the first timers to be inducted. His 2605 hits and .294 were great and good respectively, but it is his 808 stolen bases that should get him in. He is fifth all-time on the steals list, and beside Vince Coleman would be the only man eligible for the Hall of Fame with 750 or more steals that is not in the Hall of Fame. He was a seven time All-Star, was constantly on the OBP, hits, triples, BB, stolen bases (among other things) leaderboards. Of the top ten players that are most similar to him statistically, five are in the Hall of Fame: Lou Brock, Max Carey, Fred Clarke, Harry Hooper and Enos Slaughter. His grey ink and black ink are under that of the average Hall of Famer, and the Hall of Fame monitor doesn't even call him a "likely" Hall of Famer. But, I think he belongs in the Hall of Fame, and should get in eventually.

David Justice. Hit 305 home runs, which is good, but not Hall of Fame worthy. His chances are made even less likely when you consider that he hit only .279, played only 14 seasons and was a dud in the postseason. Only one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him - Larry Doby - but the most similar player is Tim Salmon, who, like Justice, probably won't ever get in. His grey ink is less that three time that of the average Hall of Famer, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a very unlikely Hall of Famer. He doesn't belong.

Brady Anderson. If you're going to have a .256 career batting average, you also have to be spectacular defensively, a la Bill Mazeroski. By his lack of Gold Gloves (he won a whopping zero) he clearly wasn't that great in the field. 1661 hits, 210 home runs and 315 stolen bases are not enough to get a guy into the Hall. His grey ink is nearly four times less than that of the average Hall of Famer and the Hall of Fame monitor has him even less likely a Hall of Famer than David Justice. He is not statistically similar to any Hall of Famers. He doesn't ever belong.

Rod Beck. He was a great reliever during his prime, but if you're going to be a closer in today's era and expect to get into the Hall, you either have to have a gargantuan amount of saves and/or a really low ERA. Beck had neither. To add insult to injury, he played only 13 seasons, which is really low for a Hall of Famer. Not one of the players he is most similar to are in the Hall of Fame and his black and grey ink are terrible. His black is one (the average Hall of Famer's is 40) and his grey ink is 23 (the average Hall of Famer's is 185). Hall of Fame monitor however says that he is more deserving than David Justice or Brady Anderson to get in, however I don't ever see it happening. If the Hall of Fame ever gets watered down that much, then it would become more or less the Hall of Shame. He doesn't ever belong.

Shawon Dunston. He averaged less than 100 hits a season, collecting only 1597 in an 18 year career. He didn't do any one thing super well: 150 homers, 212 steals and his strikeout to walk ratio was nearly five to one. He was a notoriously bad walker in his career: I remember when he played with the New York Mets, he didn't walk once in 42 games. Over the final six seasons in his career, he didn't walk more than 10 times in a season once, although each year he struck out at least 25 times. He was a good player at most in his prime, but not a Hall of Famer by any meaning of the phrase. There are no Hall of Famers statistically similar to him, his grey ink is 138 less than the average Hall of Famer's and the Hall of Fame monitor has him basically as a zero percent chance kind of guy. He doesn't belong, ever.

Chuck Finley. He was certainly a great pitcher in his best years, but no where near a Hall of Famer. He posted a .536 winning percentage (hey, it's better than Nolan Ryan) but Finley only won 200 games. He was a great strikeout pitcher and had he started his career just two years earlier and lasted another year or so, he would be looking at 3,000 career strikeouts and a much improved chance at the Hall. But, he only has 2610 strikeouts, and add that to a 3.85 career ERA, his chances are really slim. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar to him and he only has a black ink score of 6. His grey ink is actually pretty good being that it's 156 and the average Hall of Famer's is 185, but the Hall of Famer monitor has him as an unlikely Hall of Famer. I agree with that, I don't think he belongs.

Travis Fryman. He hit .274 with 1776 hits and 223 home runs in 13 seasons. Really, that's all I need to say. But, I'll say more: his strikeout to walk ratio was 2:1, he was a postseason dud and his career was too short. He was an All-Star quite a few times, but that doesn't merit his election into the Hall. Not one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him, his black ink is two, his grey ink is 20 and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as very, very unlikely. He doesn't belong, ever.

Chuck Knoblauch. He was a great basestealer in his day and is well remembered for his funky batting stance. His .289 average and 1839 hits in 12 seasons are respectable, but he is still far from being a Hall of Famer (although Lou Boudreau is statistically similar to him). His black ink is 3, grey ink is 67 and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as unlikely. He might not be the worst choice ever (I there are a couple worse in the Hall than he) but I don't believe he ever deserves induction into the Hall of Fame.

Robb Nen. He was a top closer during his career and it stinks that he was forced to retire so young. I guarantee you he'd be in the Hall of Fame had he played five more years. That said, his 2.98 ERA and 314 saves are great, but he didn't play long enough in my opinion. His black and grey ink were both terrible, however the Hall of Fame monitor has him as an even more likely Hall of Famer than Raines. The tenth most similar player to him statistically, Bruce Sutter, is in the Hall as well. Robb Nen was at the top of his class for a while, and probably will get at least a couple votes. I always thought he was a great player and wouldn't hate seeing him in the Hall, however I think there are others that should get in before him. If he belongs in, it's not for a very long time.

Jose Rijo. He actually had a respectable career ERA with his 3.24 mark, but his record was only 116-91 and he averaged less than 10 wins a season. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar, his black and grey ink are bad, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as being very unlikely. He never belongs.

Todd Stottlemyre. Posting a 4.28 career ERA is no way to get you into the Hall. Neither is winning only 138 games in 14 seasons and having a .533 winning percentage. No Hall of Famers are statistically similar to him (which is a good thing) and his grey ink is terrible. The Hall of Fame monitor has him one point more likely that Shawon Dunston, which means he'll never get in, and rightly so.

Rich Gossage. On the Baseball-Reference Similarity Scores, the two players he is most similar to statistically are Hall of Famers - Rollie Finger and Hoyt Wilhelm. One of the best closers of his era. The Hall of Fame monitor says he has a score of 126, while the likely Hall of Famer's is 100. He belongs, 100%.

Tommy John. Has the second most wins of any pitcher not in the Hall, but his case is not as strong as Blyleven's because he didn't have an incredibly high strikeout total to offset his less than stellar winning percentage. He was a postseason pitching star, finishing with a postseason record of 12-5. He was only an All-Star four times and never won a Cy Young award. Then again, neither did Blyleven, and Blyleven only was an All-Star twice (but Bly did strikeout 3700+ batters). John had horrible black ink, respectable grey ink (but not equal to or above the average Hall of Famer's) and the Hall of Fame monitor gives him a score of 111. Six of the 10 players most similar to him statistically are in the Hall (however, some - like Eppa Rixey - are considered "mistakes"). I don't support him as strongly, he should get in after Dawson, Gossage and Blyleven.

Don Mattingly. Had he played ball in the 1920s and 1930s, he would have been elected to the Hall of Fame under Frankie Frisch's reign as chairman of the Veteran's Committee in the 1960s and 1970s. They liked good average hitters with fair power who had relatively short careers (ahem Chick Hafey). I think the knock against Mattingly is his career was shortened by back problems. If it were maybe just three years longer, his chances would be greater. The numbers say that he wouldn't be the worst choice for the Hall of Fame however. His black ink and grey ink are just a tad under the average Hall of Famer's, and the Hall of Fame monitor has him at 133.5 points - a likely Hall of Famer has about 100 points. Two of the ten most similar players to him statistically are in the Hall - Kirby Puckett and Jim Bottomley. I wouldn't hate it if he got in. I'd say he belongs, but some guys should be let in before him first.

Mark McGwire-last year I didn't even put him on my top 10 list, but I've had a change of heart. Basically he was just a Dave Kingman with more power and a better eye at the plate (who could hit for higher average), but he was a good player. Only two of the 10 most similar players to him are in the Hall, but his black ink is higher than the average Hall of Famer's and his grey ink isn't much lower. The Hall of Fame monitor says he should be in. The dark cloud of steroids looms however, so I don't think he'll get in. He should get in eventually, I think he belongs, but he should have to wait a few years.

Jack Morris-to start, his ERA was too high - 3.90. His 250+ wins are a plus as are the number of times he finished in the top 10 for Cy Young voting (although he never won). Six Hall of Famers are similar to him statistically, his black ink is higher than the average Hall of Famer's and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a "likely" Hall of Famer. He certainly was a great pitcher, not great enough for the Hall though. I don't think he belongs.

Dale Murphy-was an All-Star a lot and a Gold Glover a lot. His black ink, grey ink and Hall of Fame monitor scores are all higher than an average and likely Hall of Famer. His offensive statistics don't really seem all that great (they're Joe Carter-esque) and only two of the 10 most similar batters to him are in the Hall. He played in a lot of hitter friendly parks in his career. I'm not saying he doesn't belong in the Hall, but he's not the greatest choice in the world.

Dave Parker-he reminds me of Al Oliver, who I wouldn't mind seeing in the Hall. I wouldn't mind seeing Parker in the Hall either. Him, Harold Baines and Andre Dawson are the only players with 2700+ hits and 300+ home runs who are not in the Hall of Fame. Two of the 10 most similar players to him statistically are in the Hall. His black ink score (26) is only one point lower than that of the average Hall of Famer's. His grey ink score is higher and the Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely Hall of Famer. Parker belongs in the Hall of Fame one day.

Harold Baines-if you're a DH for most of your career, the only way that you should be able to get into the Hall is if you hit 500 home runs or get 3000 hits. Baines did neither. He finished with only 2866 hits and 384 homers. His black ink is terrible as is his grey ink. He doesn't belong.

Bert Blyleven. Had a better career winning percentage than Nolan Ryan. Only player with 3,000 plus strikeouts not in the Hall or headed to it. Had 287 wins. Besides Bobby Mathews and Tommy John, that is the highest win total of any pitcher not in the Hall. Now don't give me this mumbo jumbo that he did all this just because he played a long time. Mike Morgan played a long time and finished with a 141-186 record. And if you think he only got those numbers because he played a long time, then same goes for Ryan. Anywho, grey ink has him at 237 points, which is over 50 points higher than the average Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame monitor has him at 120.5 points, which is 20.5 points higher that the likely Hall of Famer. Eight of the 10 players most statistically similar to him are in the Hall. HE BELONGS, 100%.

Dave Concepcion-the Big Red Machine wouldn't have been the same without him. He was a constant All-Star and a multi-time Gold Glove winner. He hit only .267 with 101 home runs and 950 RBI however, and that's not too impressive. Bobby Wallace - a Hall of Famer - is the player most similar to him, and he has three other HOFers that are statistically similar as well. Grey ink - bleh, but Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely Hall of Famer. I don't think he belongs, but he'll probably get in one day.

Andre Dawson. A member of the 400 home run, 300 stolen base club - one of only three ballplayers in that club. According to the Similarity Scores, five of the 10 most statistically similar players to him are in the Hall, with the top two being in the Hall. He has the grey ink of a Hall of Famer and then some. The average Hall of Famer's grey ink is 144, his is 164. The Hall of Fame monitor says his score is 118, while the likely Hall of Famer's is 100. He definitely belongs, 100%.

Jim Rice-was a great player during his career. He hit .298 with 382 homers and 2542 hits. He was a constant All-Star and even won an MVP award. His black ink is 6 points higher than the average Hall of Famer's, while his grey ink is 32 points higher. He's a likely Hall of Famer and then some. Four of the players most similar to him are in the Hall. He didn't have one statistic that just stands out at you (500 homers, 3000 hits, 600 steals) but I do think he belongs.

Lee Smith-the man held the record for most career saves for goodness sakes! 478 is a lot in a career, even for today. Rollie Fingers and Bruce Sutter both compare to him, although Jeff Reardon is the most similar. Reardon was great too, but not a Hall of Famer. However, Reardon saved over 100 games less than Smith and had an ERA .13 points higher. Hall of Fame monitor says Smith is a likely Hall of Famer. He belongs.

Alan Trammell-2365 hits, .285 average - not really Hall of Fame material, in my opinion. Only one Hall of Famer is statistically similar to him. He was an All-Star a bunch a times and a Gold Glover a few, and he did play shortstop, a historically less offensively oriented position (although that is changing nowadays). Although Hall of Fame monitor has him as a likely HOFer, I've never advocated his induction - he doesn't belong.

[Brad Harris]

So - you're saying what exactly? That I can only have an opinion if I think Blyleven deserves to be in (which I don't).

Everyone has an opinion. I was just making a joke in that your opinion on that particular candidate appears to coincide with what is, for the moment, a majority of the actual electorate.

[comiskey00]

Nicely done, Cowtipper. You summed up everyone very well. I agree with just about everything you said.
I've always wondered why a guy like Al Oliver doesn't get more support. He doesn't have any stats that blow you away, but he played for a long time, compiling a batting average over .300 and getting over 2700 hits.

[Paul Wendt]

I've listed the players on the ballot in order from most to least deserving. Coincidentally, I draw the In/Out Line right after the top ten.

1. Tim Raines
2. Bert Blyleven
3. Alan Trammell
4. Mark McGwire
5. Goose Gossage
6. Dale Murphy
7. Dave Parker
8. Jim Rice
9. Andre Dawson
10. Lee Smith
------------------------

I plunked for the same less Parker and Rice. Concepcion is the other one who deserves close attention, I believe, and the rest are ballot filler.

I might bump Lee Smith up a rung or two and I would bump Gossage up at least two. By the apparent standard at their position, Gossage should rank #1 and Smith #6, but that standard is relatively low. At other positions some players more deserving than Sutter, maybe Eckersley too, have been rejected; one firmly rejected (Bobby Grich).

[amaral]

Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rich Gossage
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Alan Trammell

First time I've ever voted for less than 10 on a mock ballot. Just couldn't justify not voting for McGwire. I think he'll surprise this year in the real vote, though I don't think he'll get in. I think Gossage and Rice both get in, followed by Dawson, McGwire, and Blyleven.