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Thread: All-Time Draft Rematch

  1. #161
    So I took Collins who I would have taken had I drafted earlier yesterday before I fixed on Grove.

    Collins suprisingly has the 4th highest 5 year WARP in history at 77.5, third among position players, and has all of that extra baserunning that doesn't go into WARP as well. Grove's 5 year WARP excluding hitting is about 63 and Johnson's is only 49.

    '09 to '13 were clearly his best all around relative seasons, as league averages were very low in '09 and '10 and he was a gold glove level fielder during that stretch as well, and with those young legs, he would have picked up the most bases that don't show up anywhere during that stretch.

    He hit .345 and stole an average of 61 bases during that stretch and had a .424 on base percentage in a league that produced just .329.

    So I guess I'll have to settle for a centerfielder and second baseman near the top of my lineup with a combined .370 batting average, 135 combined relative on base percentage and 128 steals per.

    The negative is that I had several good late round second base choices. I think that second is very deep and doesn't have many sudden drops. I count at least 9 1900's second basemen who had 45+ over 5 years.

    And it's fun. It's fun to imagine Collins and Cobb scrapping hits off of Johnson and Pedro's strikeout stuff and driving the pitcher's a little crazy.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 04:50 PM.

  2. #162
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    That was an amazing pick. I would have taken Collins if the CFs didn't dry up so quickly.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  3. #163
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    I also think we see the fast drop in centerfield after DiMaggio. Almost everyone has the same top 5 in center, and everyone else. The history people will also consider field generalship.
    Hank Aaron qualifies at CF, so there's been 6 taken. And while there's a drop, I don't think it's as big as you indicate.

    --Pitching could be a problem for me - at least in terms of an ace. With 14th pick once I took 2 position players in the first and 2nd rounds (14/15) I don't pick again until number 42. I'm likely to have a matchup problem with alot of teams in game one in a postseason series. Games 1 and 2 against temas that look pitching first.
    Is that even a consideration for us? Does it matter if our team would do better in a postseason environment? Or just a regular season?
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 05:23 PM.

  4. #164
    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Hank Aaron qualifies at CF, so there's been 6 taken. And while there's a drop, I don't think it's as big as you indicate.
    Aaron actually was probably at least a slightly above average centerfielder for over 180 games during that period, so good call.

    And you may be right about the next guys as far as 5 year peak. A few other centerfielders may have had good enough 5 year stretches to make the close to the top guys.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 05:29 PM.

  5. #165
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    Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. . . can I ask where you get a list of 5-year WARPs from? Is there a BP sortable I've never discovered?
    Hey, this is my public apology for suddenly disappearing and missing out on any projects I may have neglected.

  6. #166
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    Please Do Not Talk About Players Who Have Not Been Picked Yet
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  7. #167
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    Of course, people without CFers still have to worry about someone who has a CFer taking another one, and putting one of them in LF or RF.

  8. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
    Please Do Not Talk About Players Who Have Not Been Picked Yet

    Deleted it.

  9. #169
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    Thanks, however I really don't think that guy was a sleeper However in speaking of players who are eligible for multiple positions. Mickey Mantle can play first base and every where in the OF. However, it'd be a bad idea to put him anywhere than center.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  10. #170
    Baseball prospectus has WARP scores. Warp I does not assume league quality differences. Warp III attempts to quantify league quality increases over time.

    Warp sets the baseline way too low so its not totally accurate. It sets a replacement player as one who is only about a 70 ops+ AND a replacement level defensive player. A true replacement player would not be that bad in both areas. As a result, guys get credit just for showing up.

    It doesn't give credit for taking extra bases on the hits of others due to speed, which may account for 1 warp per year for a great top runner in his prime, 1/2 for a very good one, and also a comparable deduction for a slow baserunner.


    They also have "translated batting stats" which are one way of trying to say how one player would produce in a different time and place. Wagner, in '08 for example translates to a .371 average, 54 doubles and 57 home runs! Of course, league quality is not in effect there. Ruth's translated home runs are about 1070!

    You also can see players defensive trends with FRAA. Cobb, for example was probably a near gold glove level centerfielder during the 5 years I got him, but a little below average later on.

    Ted Williams was actually an above average left fielder overall through about 1951 though '41 was a bad year.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 05:48 PM.

  11. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
    That was an amazing pick. I would have taken Collins if the CFs didn't dry up so quickly.

    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?

  12. #172
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    You also can see players defensive trends with FRAA. Cobb, for example was probably a near gold glove level centerfielder during the 5 years I got him, but a little below average later on.
    I wouldn't use FRAA for anything more than a vague guideline, and maybe not even for that. I've seen too many things that it rates FAR differently than what almost everyone agrees should be correct.

    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?
    I'd put Cobb as your leadoff, but for Collins, it probably depends on who else you end up getting...
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 06:09 PM.

  13. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?
    Ahead of Cobb, Cobb has more power and should hit with Collins on base.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  14. #174
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    Deleted post
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 06:38 PM.

  15. #175
    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Philkid3, you're up.
    DMF is up. PhilKid took Grove to go with Maddux.

  16. #176
    AstroFan, I am proud of that pick man.

    Morgan's 5 year peak is absolutely top, and he gets big plusses for his additional baserunning.

    You've got Williams with about a .500 on base percentage for his prime and now Morgan with about .430 in "that" era when the league was under .330. It also is nice to get a .500 slugging percentage from your second baseman.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 06:52 PM.

  17. #177
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    Yeah, I goofed - I don't know how I thought PhilKid was up
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 07:11 PM.

  18. #178
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    WOW, I immediately regret asking AF to join this draft I thought Morgan would slip and I could get a crack at him. Not cool man, not cool I considered taking him with my first pick, he had a brilliant five year peak. Great pick.


    Looks like we'll have a solid draft.
    Last edited by ChrisLDuncan; 01-12-2008 at 07:18 PM.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  19. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    AstroFan, I am proud of that pick man.

    Morgan's 5 year peak is absolutely top, and he gets big plusses for his additional baserunning.

    You've got Williams with about a .500 on base percentage for his prime and now Morgan with about .430 in "that" era when the league was under .330. It also is nice to get a .500 slugging percentage from your second baseman.
    Oh yeah, imagine Morgan hitting ahead of Williams. Morgan had a 69.4 WARP through that stretch, a second basemen who was the savant at getting on base, hit for great power, and played gold glove defense? Hell, looking through this again I may have to move Morgan up on my rankings.
    Last edited by ChrisLDuncan; 01-12-2008 at 07:02 PM.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  20. #180
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    Morgan's really good, but I wouldn't say he's quite as amazing as you guys are saying. First round pick? That seems extreme.

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