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Thread: All-Time Draft Rematch

  1. #151
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    Ah, I got my guy, good. Don't know what I would have done if Randy Johnson hadn't been available; my whole draft strategy rested on having the best inning-for-inning right handed and left handed starters.
    Certainly not a bad strategy, but I don't think it would have been the end of the world for you if you'd had to "settle" for the 2nd best righty or lefty .

    Although I'm not completely sure Randy's the best lefty. He's definitely among the best, but I'm not sure I can say he's the best (then again, I also can't say he isn't the best...)

    I'm very, very pleased. Like I said earlier, it's much easier to pick up a random position player with a nice five year peak than do the same for a pitcher.
    I'm not disagreeing, but I think your statement needs a caveat - it's much easier to get a random position player at many of the positions. Some of the positions? Not so much.
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 12:39 PM.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

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  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Although I'm not completely sure Randy's the best lefty. He's definitely among the best, but I'm not sure I can say he's the best (then again, I also can't say he isn't the best...)
    Like I said, other than his half season with the Mariners, the lowest ERA+ he put up was 181. There's only three other lefties in history with more than a single season with an ERA+ over 180; the best any of them can give you in a five year stretch is two such seasons. I feel very confident saying he's the best five year lefty of all time.

    I'm not disagreeing, but I think your statement needs a caveat - it's much easier to get a random position player at many of the positions. Some of the positions? Not so much.
    I completely agree with this. It's very possible that my first position player pick will be somebody whose stats don't look that tremendous, but who far outstips the third tier options at his position.
    "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

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  3. #153
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    Like I said, other than his half season with the Mariners, the lowest ERA+ he put up was 181. There's only three other lefties in history with more than a single season with an ERA+ over 180; the best any of them can give you in a five year stretch is two such seasons. I feel very confident saying he's the best five year lefty of all time.
    I agree ERA+ is important, but there are other factors.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

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  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    I agree ERA+ is important, but there are other factors.
    True, of course. I think this discussion will have to be reserved until after he's chosen, but I'm not very high on the guy I believe you're thinking of. Either way, happy with my draft so far.
    "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

    Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

  5. #155
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    Wow, from the moment El Halo picked Pedro I was eyeing Grove. I never thought he'd still be there.

    hard to pick a 5-year stretch for him, though. Especially becaus 1933-34 screw things up.
    Hey, this is my public apology for suddenly disappearing and missing out on any projects I may have neglected.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by philkid3 View Post
    Wow, from the moment El Halo picked Pedro I was eyeing Grove. I never thought he'd still be there.

    hard to pick a 5-year stretch for him, though. Especially becaus 1933-34 screw things up.
    I was teetering on Grove and Petey.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by philkid3 View Post
    Wow, from the moment El Halo picked Pedro I was eyeing Grove. I never thought he'd still be there.

    hard to pick a 5-year stretch for him, though. Especially becaus 1933-34 screw things up.
    That's the thing with Grove. If you could take 30-32 and 35-36, he'd be an absolute God. But in this format you can't. Still a great guy to have, though.
    "Simply put, the passion, interest and tradition surrounding baseball in New York is unmatched."

    Sean McAdam, ESPN.com

  8. #158
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    --Yeah its a shame he got stuck with those 1928-29 seasons to start off the 5 years. That slacker barely cracked a 150 ERA+ those years. Why in 1929 he fell off to only 3rd in the league in ERA. Of course he did lead in ERA the other 4 - several by almost unbelieveable margins. And he did lead in strikeouts every year. Even in those two "warm up" seasons he went 44-14 and was the best pitcher in baseball . I guess he'll do as a consolation prize.

  9. #159
    Grove still has a 5 year ERA+ of 174 and Johnson just 177 and Grove pitched 10% more innings per season in a season with 5% fewer games so he has about 15% more "stamina" with his 2% "suckier" ERA+. Also Grove trails only 3 guys in 1900's 5 year WARP I, and 2 have been selected AND his WARP gets knocked down by 5 for that period because of his hitting, which should not factor in with the use of the DH. He has more WARP per inning than any of the other 3.

    Johnson by the way appears to have pitched for defenses in the 5 year span that hurt his ERA+ (poor defenses) by about 10 ops+ points. Also, with K Kings of Pedro and Randy you don't have to worry as much about getting good fielders.

    By the way, why would it be important to get a lefty AND a righty starter? I understand relievers, but is it important to have mixed handed starters?

    I was sure that one of the two would fall through if I moved down-and I missed out. Well at least I moved up 3 spots in the 5th round. There are still 10 1900s pitchers who's 5 year WARP scores are on average equal to Grove's and Martinez' though. Still, on both counts, great picks.

    I also think we see the fast drop in centerfield after DiMaggio. Almost everyone has the same top 5 in center, and everyone else. The history people will also consider field generalship.

    As for pitchers and position players in general, if pitchers get hard to find, they certainly have a premium-there are fewer awesome 5 year peaks out there, however, a pitcher on a staff like this who gets say 220 innings, is only pitching about 1/7 of his teams innings, and defense probably is about 20% of the run prevention factor, so they are doing about 1/8 of a team's run prevention which is dead even to the relative responsibility of an everyday position player who does 1/9 of the hitting and 3% of the run prevention. A good fielding and running player with a 180 OPS+ is still producing as much total value as a pitcher with a 180 ERA+. In post season consideration, the pitcher moves up of course.

    I have one last back-up plan for this round however and since I'm up, it's Eddie Collins. mmmboy I need some pitchers now.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 05:09 PM.

  10. #160
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    --In CF, I see the Big 5 (or should it be big 4 plus DiMaggio - Joe missed alot of time even in his prime seasons), then the NEXT 2, then everybody else. If I fall to the 8th best CFer I would porbaly let that position slide for awhile, because I don't see that much difference between 8 and 14.
    --Pitching could be a problem for me - at least in terms of an ace. With 14th pick once I took 2 position players in the first and 2nd rounds (14/15) I don't pick again until number 42. I'm likely to have a matchup problem with alot of teams in game one in a postseason series. Games 1 and 2 against temas that look pitching first.

  11. #161
    So I took Collins who I would have taken had I drafted earlier yesterday before I fixed on Grove.

    Collins suprisingly has the 4th highest 5 year WARP in history at 77.5, third among position players, and has all of that extra baserunning that doesn't go into WARP as well. Grove's 5 year WARP excluding hitting is about 63 and Johnson's is only 49.

    '09 to '13 were clearly his best all around relative seasons, as league averages were very low in '09 and '10 and he was a gold glove level fielder during that stretch as well, and with those young legs, he would have picked up the most bases that don't show up anywhere during that stretch.

    He hit .345 and stole an average of 61 bases during that stretch and had a .424 on base percentage in a league that produced just .329.

    So I guess I'll have to settle for a centerfielder and second baseman near the top of my lineup with a combined .370 batting average, 135 combined relative on base percentage and 128 steals per.

    The negative is that I had several good late round second base choices. I think that second is very deep and doesn't have many sudden drops. I count at least 9 1900's second basemen who had 45+ over 5 years.

    And it's fun. It's fun to imagine Collins and Cobb scrapping hits off of Johnson and Pedro's strikeout stuff and driving the pitcher's a little crazy.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 04:50 PM.

  12. #162
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    That was an amazing pick. I would have taken Collins if the CFs didn't dry up so quickly.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  13. #163
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    I also think we see the fast drop in centerfield after DiMaggio. Almost everyone has the same top 5 in center, and everyone else. The history people will also consider field generalship.
    Hank Aaron qualifies at CF, so there's been 6 taken. And while there's a drop, I don't think it's as big as you indicate.

    --Pitching could be a problem for me - at least in terms of an ace. With 14th pick once I took 2 position players in the first and 2nd rounds (14/15) I don't pick again until number 42. I'm likely to have a matchup problem with alot of teams in game one in a postseason series. Games 1 and 2 against temas that look pitching first.
    Is that even a consideration for us? Does it matter if our team would do better in a postseason environment? Or just a regular season?
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 05:23 PM.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

  14. #164
    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Hank Aaron qualifies at CF, so there's been 6 taken. And while there's a drop, I don't think it's as big as you indicate.
    Aaron actually was probably at least a slightly above average centerfielder for over 180 games during that period, so good call.

    And you may be right about the next guys as far as 5 year peak. A few other centerfielders may have had good enough 5 year stretches to make the close to the top guys.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 05:29 PM.

  15. #165
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    Sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. . . can I ask where you get a list of 5-year WARPs from? Is there a BP sortable I've never discovered?
    Hey, this is my public apology for suddenly disappearing and missing out on any projects I may have neglected.

  16. #166
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    Please Do Not Talk About Players Who Have Not Been Picked Yet
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  17. #167
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    Of course, people without CFers still have to worry about someone who has a CFer taking another one, and putting one of them in LF or RF.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

  18. #168
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
    Please Do Not Talk About Players Who Have Not Been Picked Yet

    Deleted it.

  19. #169
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    Thanks, however I really don't think that guy was a sleeper However in speaking of players who are eligible for multiple positions. Mickey Mantle can play first base and every where in the OF. However, it'd be a bad idea to put him anywhere than center.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  20. #170
    Baseball prospectus has WARP scores. Warp I does not assume league quality differences. Warp III attempts to quantify league quality increases over time.

    Warp sets the baseline way too low so its not totally accurate. It sets a replacement player as one who is only about a 70 ops+ AND a replacement level defensive player. A true replacement player would not be that bad in both areas. As a result, guys get credit just for showing up.

    It doesn't give credit for taking extra bases on the hits of others due to speed, which may account for 1 warp per year for a great top runner in his prime, 1/2 for a very good one, and also a comparable deduction for a slow baserunner.


    They also have "translated batting stats" which are one way of trying to say how one player would produce in a different time and place. Wagner, in '08 for example translates to a .371 average, 54 doubles and 57 home runs! Of course, league quality is not in effect there. Ruth's translated home runs are about 1070!

    You also can see players defensive trends with FRAA. Cobb, for example was probably a near gold glove level centerfielder during the 5 years I got him, but a little below average later on.

    Ted Williams was actually an above average left fielder overall through about 1951 though '41 was a bad year.
    Last edited by brett; 01-12-2008 at 05:48 PM.

  21. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisLDuncan View Post
    That was an amazing pick. I would have taken Collins if the CFs didn't dry up so quickly.

    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?

  22. #172
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    You also can see players defensive trends with FRAA. Cobb, for example was probably a near gold glove level centerfielder during the 5 years I got him, but a little below average later on.
    I wouldn't use FRAA for anything more than a vague guideline, and maybe not even for that. I've seen too many things that it rates FAR differently than what almost everyone agrees should be correct.

    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?
    I'd put Cobb as your leadoff, but for Collins, it probably depends on who else you end up getting...
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 06:09 PM.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

  23. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    Thanks. Where do you think I should put them in the order?
    Ahead of Cobb, Cobb has more power and should hit with Collins on base.
    "he probably used some performance enhancing drugs so he could do a better job on his report...i hear they make you gain weight" - Dr. Zizmor

    "I thought it was interesting and yes a conversation piece. Next time I post a similar story I will close with the question "So, do you think either of them have used steroids?" so that I can make the topic truly relevant to discussions about today's game." - Eric Davis

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqul1GyK7-g

  24. #174
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    Deleted post
    Last edited by Wade8813; 01-12-2008 at 06:38 PM.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

  25. #175
    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Philkid3, you're up.
    DMF is up. PhilKid took Grove to go with Maddux.

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