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Thread: Statistical Breakdown

  1. #1

    Statistical Breakdown

    I started this for my own statistical purposes in rating the teams. I will begin with raw data only for SP, RP, Lineup, Bench and Fielding, then I will subjectify them. I really just needed to get started because it is quite a chore. Feel free to discuss. I may post a data only thread later.

  2. #2
    See thread "Brett's worksheet"
    Last edited by brett; 03-02-2008 at 05:29 PM.

  3. #3
    I will be posting another set of averages in italics which are straight up averages rating every pitcher though the same number of innings. The bold averages over-weight the huge inning guys of course. The "equal weight" average will underrate legitimate inning eaters, but both averages used together should be valuable.

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    I was never going for ERA+ with my pitchers, but more fielding independent pitching stats. Vance and Waddell, relative to their leagues, are probably the greatest strikeout artists of all time. But good chart, and I hope to see more like them.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by AstrosFan View Post
    I was never going for ERA+ with my pitchers, but more fielding independent pitching stats. Vance and Waddell, relative to their leagues, are probably the greatest strikeout artists of all time. But good chart, and I hope to see more like them.
    If I have the time, I will be looking at the actual fielding effects on a pitcher's ERA during their career-though this would be a little more subjective in that there is no great stat. I know it can be significant though. In a given season a pitcher can pitch at a 100 level and produce at a 120 or 80 level with historically great or terrible defenses. This would be very rare though. +/-10 over a 5 year period would be about the limit.

    So Waddell and Vance may very well be 10-15 points better in my final analysis, while others may ne 10-15 points worse.

    (Well based on BBPro, Waddell is about 6 points better and Vance about 2-2.5 points better, but that's pretty significant, unfortunately Coveleski is 4 points worse, while Bender is about +1. Alltogether it would raise your starters by about 1.3 points on the composite ERA+, but other teams might also drop some).
    Last edited by brett; 02-11-2008 at 04:05 PM.

  6. #6
    Bullpens. I will probably run this like starters for now. A team will probably need around 300-400 innings from the pen.

    I may also try to run Lefty v. Lefty and Righty v. Right OPS against.
    Last edited by brett; 03-02-2008 at 05:29 PM.

  7. #7
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    TSS doesn't have Gordon, AF does (Unless they traded, and I missed the announcement).
    Last edited by Wade8813; 02-16-2008 at 06:50 PM.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

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  8. #8
    Thanks! I'll have it up with some numbers tonight!

  9. #9
    For bullpen, I listed the combined average innings because I figure that a team needs to have at least 400 innings covered by the bullpen to be really set there. If 5 starters each go 200, then there are about 377 innings left for the pen assuming 8.5 innings per game and 458 assuming 9.0 innings per game.

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    You have both TSS and WL listed as having Plesac, and you missed that DMF has Eckersley.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

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    I'm pleasantly surprised by my bullpen. Probably top 5, with my rotation. And I like my lineup more than my pitching. And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.

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    And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.
    Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.
    The Dark Knight is the best movie I've ever seen.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDxgNjMTPIs

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.
    I think they are correct now.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Erik Bedard View Post
    I'm pleasantly surprised by my bullpen. Probably top 5, with my rotation. And I like my lineup more than my pitching. And Gagne looks like the second-best closer option out there, after Rivera.
    I think you need at least 3 more relievers. They are out there

    Unfortunately there are not enough top lefties out there.
    Last edited by brett; 02-16-2008 at 07:18 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade8813 View Post
    Based on what? Papelbon, Wagner, Nathan, (and I assume Eck) all have better numbers based off just that chart. And Ryan is basically tied.
    None have as many IP. I kinda missed Nathan and Wagner when skimming the chart, but Papelbon is about 25 IP less than Gagne. Personally, I'd rank it Rivera, Wagner, Gagne, Nathan, Ryan. So third.

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    --Brett, you shortchanged my bullpen a little. I took Wood 68-72 to use as a swingman. You've only got him listed 68-70 - which leaves his best year out. That year, which is one of my best pitcher seasons, isn't getting counted in either the relief or starter stats.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by leecemark View Post
    --Brett, you shortchanged my bullpen a little. I took Wood 68-72 to use as a swingman. You've only got him listed 68-70 - which leaves his best year out. That year, which is one of my best pitcher seasons, isn't getting counted in either the relief or starter stats.

    You are right, but if I take his whole run and put it under the bullpen, the huge inning total will actually bring your average down somewhat.

    I think we need one last category for pitchers which is "spot starter" or 6th starter or emergency starter. Mine right now for example is Randy Myers who would be a pure emergency guy.

    Since you have Wood listed as bullpen, I will move him there. We have to eventually be a little subjective anyway.

    So I changed it. Actually it doesn't bring your bullpen ERA+ down much and it gives you a very secure 560+ innings from the pen.

    I think in the end I should count him in both places and use his two main starting seasons and 3 relief seasons separately, but divide the innings in each category by 5 years.

    Do you plan to get another starter?
    Last edited by brett; 02-16-2008 at 09:07 PM.

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    --Maybe since he is a swingman I can split the difference on years. I'll use the 1971 334 innings at 188 ERA+, but skip the 1972 377 IP at 126. I guess including all five years would slightly lower my bullpen ERA, but it would be a huge increase in my available bullpen innings. Of course that is the one area where I already lead the league.
    --Edit: I see you already beat me to the conclusion .

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by leecemark View Post
    --Maybe since he is a swingman I can split the difference on years. I'll use the 1971 334 innings at 188 ERA+, but skip the 1972 377 IP at 126. I guess including all five years would slightly lower my bullpen ERA, but it would be a huge increase in my available bullpen innings. Of course that is the one area where I already lead the league.
    --Edit: I see you already beat me to the conclusion .
    I used Wood's rates from his two starting seasons and from his 3 relief seasons separately in each table, but averaged his innings in each category over 5 years. See the results. I think it is most accurate for how he will be used. Over his 5 years he averaged 80 innings per in relief and 142 as a starter (just huge IP there). I think if you stick with 4 starters + Wood you have enough innings there to survive, but Wood needs to be picking up a spot start twice a month or 12-14 times a season.

    Also, if people will check:
    a) left and right handed designations to see if I missed anyone and

    b) see if I used the years you wanted. If I couldn't find years on the roster page, I picked the 3 most likely. You can check by seeing if the average IP are correct also

    c) if someone can give me a quick list of pitchers who had strike seasons in their stretch so I can * them I would appreciate it.

    Personally, I think that people need to think about getting 3 lefties out of the pen. At least 2! 3 rhrps and 3 lhrps is much more valuable than 5 and 1.

    Also, I think that your relievers average IP need to add up to 400 or you are in SERIOUS trouble. 450 is really safe and 500 or more would be really a bonus. If 5 starters all go 200 IP and you happened to have 162 games of 8.5 innings, you would need 377 from the pen against average offenses. Raise it 20% against these hitters and you need 452 just to complete games. Some starters may be able to go 220-240 MAX, but that's a heckuva lot against the hitters in this league. I'm thinking most starters would be in the 190-205 range.

  20. #20
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    --Tekulve and Howe both had shortened seasons fir the 1981 strike in their 3 years. Adding a third of a season out of a 3 year window would have a significant effect on their average IP.
    --It is tough to estimate how many spot starts may be required. A little bad luck with injuries and you may need to fill a full rotation slot with your 6th man (or 5th in my case). Anybody who doesn't have an extra starter working out of the pen could find themselves at a significant disadvatage. Even with Wood I will probably take a SP as my 4th rightie out of the pen. There should be a reasonable presumption that a SP shifted to the pen will be MORE effective used in short bursts (less need to pace, rely on secondary pitches, see guys multiple times, etc).
    -- For realistic modeling I'm thinking an old time starter of lesser durability. I think there are some guys who were asked to go deep and pitch on short rest in the old days who would have been MUCH better on a stricter rotation with no expectation of finishing games. For the purposes of this exercise I think some of my real ball modeling will probably not get me very far though. The different looks and usage theories will likley be ignored in favor of raw stats.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by leecemark View Post
    --Tekulve and Howe both had shortened seasons fir the 1981 strike in their 3 years. Adding a third of a season out of a 3 year window would have a significant effect on their average IP.
    --It is tough to estimate how many spot starts may be required. A little bad luck with injuries and you may need to fill a full rotation slot with your 6th man (or 5th in my case). Anybody who doesn't have an extra starter working out of the pen could find themselves at a significant disadvatage. Even with Wood I will probably take a SP as my 4th rightie out of the pen. There should be a reasonable presumption that a SP shifted to the pen will be MORE effective used in short bursts (less need to pace, rely on secondary pitches, see guys multiple times, etc).
    -- For realistic modeling I'm thinking an old time starter of lesser durability. I think there are some guys who were asked to go deep and pitch on short rest in the old days who would have been MUCH better on a stricter rotation with no expectation of finishing games. For the purposes of this exercise I think some of my real ball modeling will probably not get me very far though. The different looks and usage theories will likley be ignored in favor of raw stats.

    Well, I want to get raw stats out there first to keep things objective. Then I assume there will be adjustments. This thread is going to be my personal process of trying to rate the other 13 teams in the league. I think, for example that Westlake's rotation looks real good on paper, but he has 4 deadballers, including pre 1900 pitchers.

    The top innings guy I see in this league is probably Feller who averaged 300+ in a high offensive era, and I think Feller gets maybe 230-240 in our setting.

    Also, I want to adjust the starters to a fielding neutral ERA+ if at all possible. There are a few guys who's ERA+ are 10 points higher or lower than in a fielding neutral setting.

    In another example where subjectivity will matter, Lyle brings my bullpen ERA+ down about 14 points, but with 101 innings by a lefty, he definitely improves it. BBPro showed that starters moved to the pen average a 25% decrease in ERA. A 140 ERA+ starter with 200 innings would be a 185 reliever with around 80 innings. And cut Lyle to 70 IP and he's probably 180+ as well.
    Last edited by brett; 02-17-2008 at 08:06 AM.

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    --I know this thread is just about the numbers, I didn't mean to criticize the work you are putting in. I'm just saying that I've been taking an approach to building my team which is not strictly base on the stats. I've taken guys who I think fit well together as a team, where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. I've avoided guys with LQ questions for the most part. I've tried to get a bunch of different types of pitchers to make an effective relief core. I don't expect that approach to be well rewarded come evaluation time. Or at least I will need a more persuasive sales pitch than guys with flashier ERA+.
    --Realistically, we've got pure 9th inning guys and guys were were restrictly to a large extent to having the platoon advantage posting huge ERA+ that probably wouldn't hold up if we are asking more of them in this league. Or we've got guys who were asked to do more in their time who would probably be better if used in those optimum conditions. We've got SP who were able to cruise through many of their innings and who didn't have to contend with the long ball who may be MUCH less valuable than their number would suggest in this league. Conversely we'e got some old time starters who probably had their numbers dragged down some by being used so hard that would be better in this setting. Or guys who were pretty good starters, but might have been great in relief roles had that been vakued in thier time.

  23. #23
    Also, the stats are really important. I don't think people realize how great someone like Dotel or Kinder or Linzy were without the numbers. Then we would be going purely on reputation which would simply line up with the order that people got drafted give or take a few mistakes.

  24. #24
    An interesting finding as I work through the offensive numbers. I have only run one team: Wade's, and his team OPS+ is 164.9 which happens to be the same ERA+ as EH. (Since they are both approximately proportional to offense produced and allowed they would appear to be a wash on paper).

    Now of course, 30% of innings may go to the bullpen, and Wade's team is somewhat lacking in all around speed, and defense will also matter. Wade still has to pick up one starter, which may drop him to around 144 or so (if he gets the right guy) so EH would need an offense on par with 144 to match (which he might do as well). Wade still needs a couple of lefties in the pen though I think, but his bullpen is hanging up there too.

    Speed-not counting steals-should be worth up to about 10 OPS+ points for the top baserunners. Steals SHOULD make up up to 16-18 points for the very best, but it might be down to around 10 in this setting, but there are still about 20 points to be made on speed. Slow guys might be -10 as well (based on known values for modern guys).

    Defense can also theoretically be worth about 20 ERA+ points to a team, but that would be a team of true gold glovers.

    Also, if TSS gets the right 2 starters, his ERA+ will be above 150. I haven't dared to calculate his OPS+ yet. 170 or so I think. Still, speed may cut into that. And will there be any relievers left?

    I don't want to turn this into a pure numbers game, but I thought it was intersting.
    Last edited by brett; 02-18-2008 at 08:49 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brett View Post
    An interesting finding as I work through the offensive numbers. I have only run one team: Wade's, and his team OPS+ is 164.9 which happens to be the same ERA+ as EH. (Since they are both approximately proportional to offense produced and allowed they would appear to be a wash on paper).

    Now of course, 30% of innings may go to the bullpen, and Wade's team is somewhat lacking in all around speed, and defense will also matter. Wade still has to pick up one starter, which may drop him to around 144 or so (if he gets the right guy) so EH would need an offense on par with 144 to match (which he might do as well). Wade still needs a couple of lefties in the pen though I think, but his bullpen is hanging up there too.
    Just doing a rough thumbnail sketch of what my guys' OPS+'s are (at work and don't have my spreadsheets), the eight starters I have so far (without any era adjustments or anything) average out to about 153. I still have one position to fill (SS), so I would need to get a SS with at least a 72 OPS+ to beat 144.

    Also remember that, while Wade's bullpen ERA+ isn't too terribly far behind mine, he's 140 IP short of me (four of my five guys have more IP than his highest guy, with the only exception being my second, situational lefty... he doesn't have any so far), so there's some ground to be made up there.

    I'll relatively happy with my team. I haven't crunched the numbers, but so far I think your team might be best on numbers.
    Last edited by ElHalo; 02-19-2008 at 06:00 AM.
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