Lance Berkman (2009 poll)

[Sockeye]

I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Lance Berkman with a few friends of mine. He's 30 and in his 8th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

[leecemark]

--Do you think every halfway decent active player is headed to the Hall of Fame?

[538280]

I suppose it is possible if he ages very well, but a huge longshot. Better shot than Beltre has, but calling him a possible HOFer is still a big stretch. Despite playing in a huge offensive era, none of his top 10 similar players through his age is in the HOF, and only one is likely to be (Bagwell).

[Sockeye]

--Do you think every halfway decent active player is headed to the Hall of Fame?

Halway decent???

Look at his 162 game averages

563 AB's 106 runs 170 hits 41 doubles 3 triples 32 home runs 110 RBI's 8 steals 106 walks .302 AVG .416 OBP .557 SLG

Nothing halway decent about those stats. Those are great statistics!!!

[Sockeye]

I suppose it is possible if he ages very well, but a huge longshot. Better shot than Beltre has, but calling him a possible HOFer is still a big stretch. Despite playing in a huge offensive era, none of his top 10 similar players through his age is in the HOF, and only one is likely to be (Bagwell).

He's the opposite actually. He didn't make the majors until age 23 and his first full season cames at age 25. But since that time the numbers he has put up are truly HOF caliber numbers. 100+ runs 4 times, 100+ RBI's 3 times, 100+ walks 3 times, over a .400 OBP in each of his 5 full seasons. A career .416 OBP and a career .557 SLG. His career OPS is .973 which is the 17th highest of ALL TIME!!

[leecemark]

--Where does it rank when we're only talking about other players best 5 years? Nowhere near 17th I'm sure. His raw OPS is also inflated my the era he is playing in and his bandbox of a park. He is 30 and has already had some injured problems. I'd say the odds are very long against him ending up in Cooperstown.

[538280]

He's the opposite actually. He didn't make the majors until age 23 and his first full season cames at age 25. But since that time the numbers he has put up are truly HOF caliber numbers. 100+ runs 4 times, 100+ RBI's 3 times, 100+ walks 3 times, over a .400 OBP in each of his 5 full seasons. A career .416 OBP and a career .557 SLG. His career OPS is .973 which is the 17th highest of ALL TIME!!

I know you've been told this a million times, but I'll say it again: You really need to learn about era adjustments.

[Sockeye]

--Where does it rank when we're only talking about other players best 5 years? Nowhere near 17th I'm sure. His raw OPS is also inflated my the era he is playing in and his bandbox of a park. He is 30 and has already had some injured problems. I'd say the odds are very long against him ending up in Cooperstown.

Well his career OPS+ is 147 and he's had an OPS+ of 152 or higher 3 times so far so your argument of the era in which he has played just went out the window. As for his injury history...he had one injury last season that caused him to miss 30 games. I would hardly call that "some injuries" Do me a favor if you are going to argue your point against me and at least do your homework.

[leecemark]

--Well that OPS+ is tied for 43rd, down from 17th in raw OPS so putting it in context does make a huge difference. If he was 43rd at the end of his career that would be the start of a nice HoF argument, but with only five full seasons under his belt and already 30 it isn't nearly as impressive. His rates are almost certain to drop. I do agree with one statement from your initial post - it is premature to bring Berkman up as a Hall of Fame candidate.

[Edgartohof]

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

Honestly, even if he did put up these numbers (very much up to debate), I wouldn't necessarily put him into the Hall, and also, I would say that his BA will drop below .302, and his OBP would drop with it (though not by as much).

He is off to a good start this year, but as you said before, this is all VERY premature.

[vasprtsfn]

I realize this may be a bit premature but I was discussing Lance Berkman with a few friends of mine. He's 30 and in his 8th season. I would like to get some thoughts on his career thus far and if possible some insight on where you think his career totals will end up? I know this calls for a lot of speculation. So I'll be the first to throw some projections out there.

I think he could very well end up with

Games 2332
At-Bats 8102
Runs 1522
Hits 2445
Doubles 588
Triples 46
Home Runs 462
RBI's 1586
Stolen Bases 113
Walks 1522
AVG .302
OBP .416
SLG .557

Berkman is a very outstanding player, but until he has retired, it is pointless to talk about his HOF worthiness.

[Francoeurstein]

I know you've been told this a million times, but I'll say it again: You really need to learn about era adjustments.

Yeah, if he played in the 70's and posted the same stats then he would probably be inducted to the HOF.

[Sockeye]

--Well that OPS+ is tied for 43rd, down from 17th in raw OPS so putting it in context does make a huge difference. If he was 43rd at the end of his career that would be the start of a nice HoF argument, but with only five full seasons under his belt and already 30 it isn't nearly as impressive. His rates are almost certain to drop. I do agree with one statement from your initial post - it is premature to bring Berkman up as a Hall of Fame candidate.

I find it extremely ironic that you try to use lack of longevity as an argument. Since longevity obviously means little or nothing to the vast majority of people here. And lets not underrate Berkman for his lack of full seasons. He has still played 907 games in 7 seasons through the age of 29. That puts him on pace to play more than 2300 games for his career which is more than 35 of the 62 HOF outfielders.

[leecemark]

--Longevity is important, but you have to be a great player somewhere along the way to be a Hall of Famer. That is what you failed to understand regarding Beltre. Berkman has had more big years than Beltre, but he has still been something of a second tier star. That is good enough to get you to Cooperstown if you do it long enough, but Berkman has a looong way to go. Your assumption that he (and other players) will keep producing at the same level deep into their 30s is another problem with your hall projections. Most guys will decline and/or miss time with injuries during their 30s.

[Sockeye]

Honestly, even if he did put up these numbers (very much up to debate), I wouldn't necessarily put him into the Hall, and also, I would say that his BA will drop below .302, and his OBP would drop with it (though not by as much).

He is off to a good start this year, but as you said before, this is all VERY premature.

So if he ended his career with a .973 OPS you wouldn't put him in the HOF? You do realize that his OPS is higher than other stars of his era such as Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza, Gary Sheffield, David Ortiz, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, etc.

Oh wait the OPS stat doesn't mean anything for him due to the era he has played in. Well do you realize his OPS+ of 147 is higher than past baseball greats such as Sam Thompson, Sam Crawford, Hack Wilson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Cap Anson, Eddie Collins, Billy Hamilton, Jesse Burkett, Duke Snider, Reggie Jackson, King Kelly, Chuck Klein, Larry Doby, Bill Terry, etc

[Edgartohof]

I find it extremely ironic that you try to use lack of longevity as an argument. Since longevity obviously means little or nothing to the vast majority of people here. And lets not underrate Berkman for his lack of full seasons. He has still played 907 games in 7 seasons through the age of 29. That puts him on pace to play more than 2300 games for his career which is more than 35 of the 62 HOF outfielders.

Playing in 907 games puts him on pace for what? How does it put him on pace for anything? Do you just automatically assume every player will play until 39, 40, 41? Most don't, and those that do, many times, they play only partial seasons.

And please don't be saying things that are not true,such as your statement about longevity and the "vast majority" of us who don't care about it.

[Sockeye]

--Longevity is important, but you have to be a great player somewhere along the way to be a Hall of Famer. That is what you failed to understand regarding Beltre. Berkman has had more big years than Beltre, but he has still been something of a second tier star. That is good enough to get you to Cooperstown if you do it long enough, but Berkman has a looong way to go. Your assumption that he (and other players) will keep producing at the same level deep into their 30s is another problem with your hall projections. Most guys will decline and/or miss time with injuries during their 30s.

Players today are playing longer and with much more productivity late into their 30's than ever before. To project a sudden decline or career ending injury would be statisically inaccurate. The history of baseball does not show a sudden drop off in productivity from season to season until the players last season or two usually occuring in the very late 30's or early 40's. Slight yes, but even factoring in a slight decrease in Berkman's statisical averages which won't be seen for at least another 3-4 years still gives him a very impressive career AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ to go along with fantastic counting stats.

[BoSox Rule]

He's only played in 918 games and he's 30. He doesn't even have 3200 AB's.

[DoubleX]

Well at least this is a better choice than Adrian Beltre. Still, Berkman making it is very unlikely.

[Edgartohof]

So if he ended his career with a .973 OPS you wouldn't put him in the HOF? You do realize that his OPS is higher than other stars of his era such as Alex Rodriguez, Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Ken Griffey Jr, Mike Piazza, Gary Sheffield, David Ortiz, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, etc.

Oh wait the OPS stat doesn't mean anything for him due to the era he has played in. Well do you realize his OPS+ of 147 is higher than past baseball greats such as Sam Thompson, Sam Crawford, Hack Wilson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Cap Anson, Eddie Collins, Billy Hamilton, Jesse Burkett, Duke Snider, Reggie Jackson, King Kelly, Chuck Klein, Larry Doby, Bill Terry, etc

1.) Each and EVERY player you just mentioned has played CONSIDERABLY longer than Berkman has, and

2.) If you are going to suggest that Berkman is better than any single one of those players, then I won't know what to do. I'd just have to give up.

His OPS+ may be higher NOW, but IF he plays as long as they do, it will most certainly drop - considerably.

Having a 147 OPS+ over 5+ years is good, but wait until he has that over 10-15 years and beyond, like most of the playes you just mentioned.

Berkman is a good player, one I wouldn't mind on my team, but he is young, and hasn't accomplished a whole lot yet, in part because he came in late, and he hasn't exactly dominated in the time he has played. He has exactly 6 points of Black ink, leading in doubles and RBI once. You ASSUME he will play until nearly 40, when I KNOW that most players do NOT. I'm not saying he won't, but it isn't a given that's for sure. He is a good player, who is putting up some decent numbers (definitely not eye popping - hit 40+ HR's once, his .302 BA isn't that great, so he has some power, and can take walks, but isn't THAT great at any part. Plus, he is not very good defensively, will end up either a career LF or 1B, so little or no defensive value, he may hit 400+ HR's, which will what, put him at 10th/11th out of ACTIVE players - not that great compared to his contemporaries, let alone good enough for the Hall.

I'm not saying to give up with all of your thoughts, but at least think some of them through before posting them. Really now, not every player with 150 HR's will make it to the Hall of Fame.

[leecemark]

--I am not projecting a decline or how long Berkman will play. I am saying that you projecting that he will keep his pace up is just pure speculation. I'm really not interested in speculating on a players chances at least until they've played enough years to be eligible (that would be 10 ) and only then if they are already acheived close to enough to deserve induction.
--I can see how people might be eager to talk about a mega-star like Pujols or a unique candidate like Ichiro a little early, but why a second tier guy like Berkman? I suppose its a step in the right direction from a non-star like Beltre though.

[Edgartohof]

Well at least this is a better choice than Adrian Beltre. Still, Berkman making it is very unlikely.

Well, if his choices get better each time, by the time he gets to his 4th or 5th thread, we might get somewhere.

Here's something to think about before you do this next time:

If you have to start the post off by saying, "this might be premature, but...", you should probably rethink the whole idea.

Otherwise it will probably be shot down like the Beltre thread: 42-1

[Sockeye]

Playing in 907 games puts him on pace for what? How does it put him on pace for anything? Do you just automatically assume every player will play until 39, 40, 41? Most don't, and those that do, many times, they play only partial seasons.

And please don't be saying things that are not true,such as your statement about longevity and the "vast majority" of us who don't care about it.

In the last 15 years how many players the caliber of Lance Berkman have retired or were out of baseball before the age of 36? Answer NONE. A few here and there retire around 37, 38, 39. Most great players of this era last until at least 39, 40, or older. So there is better than a 50% chance that Berkman will play until age 40. If that happens he only needs to average less than 130 games per season to reach the 2332 games and if he averages 150 games per season for the next 5 years from the ages of 30-34 then he only needs to average less than 113 games per season for his last 6 seasons at the ages of 35-40.

[ElHalo]

--I am not projecting a decline or how long Berkman will play. I am saying that you projecting that he will keep his pace up is just pure speculation. I'm really not interested in speculating on a players chances at least until they've played enough years to be eligible (that would be 10 ) and only then if they are already acheived close to enough to deserve induction.

That's something to talk about, I suppose. New thread time.

[Sockeye]

1.) Each and EVERY player you just mentioned has played CONSIDERABLY longer than Berkman has, and

I do hate to make you look foolish here. David Ortiz? 892 career games, the same age as Berkman while his OPS is .901 a mere 72 points lower than Berkman.

2.) If you are going to suggest that Berkman is better than any single one of those players, then I won't know what to do. I'd just have to give up.

I will not only suggest I will state very clearly that Berkman is better than David Ortiz and certainly at least on par with Jeff Bagwell, Chipper Jones, Sammy Sosa, or Rafael Palmeiro.

His OPS+ may be higher NOW, but IF he plays as long as they do, it will most certainly drop - considerably.

Generally speaking we usually see a small decrease in OPS+ with age. Not a major reduction. I'd guess maybe 5-7 points, 10 points max. That would still give him an OPS+ of between 137-142. Higher than 37 of the 62 HOF outfielders or 59.6%

Having a 147 OPS+ over 5+ years is good, but wait until he has that over 10-15 years and beyond, like most of the playes you just mentioned.

Well considering the fact that he'll be in his prime for at least another 3-6 seasons I highly doubt we'll see much of a reduction in his OPS+ over the time span. That will give him an OPS+ of around 147 after 10-13 seasons.

Berkman is a good player, one I wouldn't mind on my team, but he is young, and hasn't accomplished a whole lot yet, in part because he came in late, and he hasn't exactly dominated in the time he has played. He has exactly 6 points of Black ink, leading in doubles and RBI once. You ASSUME he will play until nearly 40, when I KNOW that most players do NOT. I'm not saying he won't, but it isn't a given that's for sure. He is a good player, who is putting up some decent numbers (definitely not eye popping - hit 40+ HR's once, his .302 BA isn't that great, so he has some power, and can take walks, but isn't THAT great at any part. Plus, he is not very good defensively, will end up either a career LF or 1B, so little or no defensive value, he may hit 400+ HR's, which will what, put him at 10th/11th out of ACTIVE players - not that great compared to his contemporaries, let alone good enough for the Hall.

If you look at Lance Berkman's career and aren't impressed by his numbers then I can't help you. You simply must not be able to comprehend what great numbers are. Do you understand what a .416 career OBP is? That is 5th among active players after only (Bonds, Helton, Thomas, Pujols) His career slugging % if .557. Again a GREAT number. That is 11th among active players. Each of the 10 players ahead of him are very serious HOF contenders. His HOF standards is already at 32 with 50 being an average HOFer. His HOF monitor is already at 61 with 100 being a "likely" HOFer. This is after only 7 seasons (5 full) Given his rate of production he needs about another 4 full seasons to pass each of those levels. That will make Berkman an above average and likely HOFer by the age of 33

I'm not saying to give up with all of your thoughts, but at least think some of them through before posting them. Really now, not every player with 150 HR's will make it to the Hall of Fame.

Don't give me advice of what to post and what not to post. You have no idea as to how well thought out and studied my positions are or how well researched I am on this topic. In fact my business depends on my ability to predict the future of current baseball players. I've been doing it for 17+ years now and have had a very high rate of success.