Derek Jeter...4,000 Hits?

[BSmile]

Obviously...I'm a huge baseball fan. Mostly the vintage part of it.
However, yes...I DO follow the modern game. Can't get enough...and I've never posted a modern question on this board. However, I'm also a Yankee fan..(sorry)....but this question is really based on stats etc. So here goes...(and this question has been on my mind the past few years):

Is Derek Jeter headed towards 4,000+ hits???
Of course there are a lot of variables that could affect him...but all things considered, he might have a legitimate run at Pete Rose's hit record! At his age and output, he really might make it. You can all click over to baseball-reference to do the math if ya' like....but he really is on pace to break the record. I'm actually amazed that this question hasn't come up before! (Sorry if it has). I'd have to say....if Derek decides to play long enough, he will break the record IMHO.

What do ya think???

[VIBaseball]

Let's be generous and say that he has six more 200-hit seasons left in him after this one, in which he might get 100 more if he does well. That would put him at roughly 3750 at age 40.

On the Yankees board, one of the team's biggest fans suspects that he sees signs that Jeter may be in decline.

[SABR Matt]

Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

He'll be out of baseball by 38.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

He'll be out of baseball by 38.

Not only will Jeter not get 4,000 hits but A-Rod will end up with more career hits as well simply because A-Rod will probably play into his early 40s and Jeter will not.

[SABR Matt]

Agreed with that.

Jeter is following the classic "line drive hitting middle infielder" path...For a similar example, see Barry Larkin. He's heading for a slow, painful death.

[Matthew C.]

Agreed with that.

Jeter is following the classic "line drive hitting middle infielder" path...For a similar example, see Barry Larkin. He's heading for a slow, painful death.

Agreed, but lets not give the "Jeter stinks/ Jeter is the most overrated player in baseball history" crowd too much ammunition - okay!

[SABR Matt]

Well Jeter is painfully overrated...but that still makes him a very good player.

I can see Jeter turning into Placido Polanco except with no glove pretty soon here. .300 hitting with zero power and decreasing walk rate (as he dials down the ambition to keep his average up).

[NewYork NewYork]

Jeter's numbers are down this year but one of the main reasons why is because he got hit in the wrist earlier in the year. He had about a 15 game period after getting hit where he was brutally bad, just pathetic at the plate. I think he struggled to hit .100 over the stretch. But after those 15 games he's been solid. His numbers over the last 30 or so games are typical Jeter numbers.

But 4000 Hits? No chance.

Pete Rose stopped being effective in 1979. At that point in his career he had 3,372 hits in 2,668 games. But he went on to play 894 more games to rack up 884 more hits to set the All-Time record.

I think Jeter will finish somewhere in the range of 3100-3400, I think he'll end his career at that point. I don't think he'll extend his career for 900 more games for the sole purpose of setting the record like Rose did.

SABR Matt, surprisingly Jeter's defense has been A LOT better this year. I have no idea why this is, but he's shown more range this year than I've seen in a long time from him. Maybe it's because of the extra work he put on his lateral movements in the off-season this year or maybe it's because Girardi's positioning him better than Torre did, but Jeter's played much better in the field and the numbers back it up. Whether it's an abberration or the real thing remains to be seen.

[SABR Matt]

Wow...his RZR jumped from near .800 to .867...that's worth further study. I suspect it's a fluke in the long run, but it'd be interesting to see what was causing it.

[jjpm74]

In anything, I think A-rod has a better chance than Jeter. Cobb had more hits by A-Rod's age and Rose had less. This is of course assuming that A-rod manages to average around 176 hits a season for the remainder of his contract. A million things can go wrong between now and then.

I like Jeter, but I have a feeling that his best years are behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to 3000 hits, but 4000 hits is an even bigger stretch for him than it is for A-rod who it is also quite a stretch for.

[Honus Wagner Rules]

In anything, I think A-rod has a better chance than Jeter. Cobb had more hits by A-Rod's age and Rose had less. This is of course assuming that A-rod manages to average around 176 hits a season for the remainder of his contract. A million things can go wrong between now and then.

I like Jeter, but I have a feeling that his best years are behind him. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get to 3000 hits, but 4000 hits is an even bigger stretch for him than it is for A-rod who it is also quite a stretch for.

Here are the top-10 in hits through age 32.

2713  Ty Cobb
2476  Rogers Hornsby
2434  Hank Aaron
2407  Robin Yount
2370  Jimmie Foxx 
2366  Mel Ott 	
2334  A-Rod  
2320  Vada Pinson
2307  Joe Medwick
2301  Willie Keeler

A-Rod needs 65 hits the rest of the season to pass Yount and 101 hits to pass Aaron. He'll likely pass Yount but not Aaron. The 4th most hits through age 32 is very impressive.

[Brad Harris]

Jeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.

He'll be out of baseball by 38.

Good, then Rodriguez can play where he should have been playing all along and the Yanks can go out and sign David Wright to take over at third.

[1905 Giants]

David Wright to take over at third.

He had a great catch tonight.

As for the thread: no, I don't see Jeter as a contender for 4,000 hits, but I wish him the best if that is his goal.

[dgarza]

Sweet, I'm waiting for Jeter to change his name to Julio Franco II and play forever.

[bob]

Jeter wont get to 4k hits. He'll be lucky to get over 3500. He doesn't have anything that will likely keep him in the game well into his 40's other than godlike status in New York Once they find a better SS Jeter is in trouble.
And unlike Arod he wont have historic milestones to aim for that will keep him in the game longer.
Ichiro combined career stats suggest he'll still have to play into his 40's to approach 4k hits, and Ichiro is a far better hit collector than Jeter.

[Senor Octobre]

Once they find a better SS Jeter is in trouble.

They've already got one playing on the same side of the infield.

[BSmile]

Good points everybody.
I don't think anyone would disagree that he's going to at least cruise past 3,000 hits. Also, yes...he could be at the start of a decline. So I think I'm convinced that 4,000 looks a little out of reach for him. I think one thing that could also really hold him back is that he isn't a "stat collector" kind of a player (i.e Pete Rose). I don't see him as a player that'll "hang-on" too long. Once he feels his skills are really staring to decline, he'll bow out (imho). A-Rod getting 4,000? Possible for sure...and he's most definately a "stat collector". He pays very, very close attention to his numbers...

[Bill Burgess]

Interesting topic. To break the all-time hits record, one must begin early in life, and become a hits machine.

I doubt if Derek has a real shot.

Cobb played his first ML game at 18 years, 8 months old. He had 12 seasons with 190 hits. 8 by the time he was 30, 4 after he turned 30. So, he slowed way down in his 30's. He was manager and playing his other guys ahead of himself. He stopped thinking of his own stats, because he saw managing and winning as his future bread and butter.

Hornsby played his first game at 19 years, 5 months. Got his first 190 hit season at age 24, and amassed 7 by time he was 33. But then he stopped cold after that. As far as he got.

Pete Rose made the majors when only 20. Got his first 190 hit season when only 22, and had 13 by the time he was 36, in 1979. Rose had a fantastic run in his 30's. Much more productive than Cobb/Hornsby.

But Rose made a terrible mistake by getting obsessed with Cobb's career hits record. Rose hit .325 in 1980, at the age of 38. His best BA after that was .285. Pete just sailed serenely over the cliff, into the great abyss.

Derek Jeter: Now let's look at Derek. Made the majors when only 20. Got his first 190 hit season when 23 in 1997. He now has 9 190 hit seasons and he is still but 33. If Derek turns out to be as productive in his 30's as Rose was, he might get the record. But if he turns out to be as productive as Cobb/Hornsby, he won't. It's as simple as that.

And who can see into the future? He's only hitting .287 this season after 87 games. Not a good omen. And we also don't know his degree of obsession to stay in the game and pursue records, like Rose. Well, I hope no one has that like Rose did. That was bad for Rose and bad for baseball.

[NewYork NewYork]

I can see A-Rod ending up with Hank Aaron type numbers for his career. Although Jeter is definitely better than A-Rod at collecting hits, A-Rod is more likely to reach 3,500+ hits because he'll be at his peak for a longer time period than Jeter.

[ipitch]

Bill James' Favorite Toy says...

Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4.5 more years, at an average of 208 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 3392 for his career. He has a 10.6 percent chance to reach 4000.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/assessments

[hellborn]

...
SABR Matt, surprisingly Jeter's defense has been A LOT better this year. I have no idea why this is, but he's shown more range this year than I've seen in a long time from him. Maybe it's because of the extra work he put on his lateral movements in the off-season this year or maybe it's because Girardi's positioning him better than Torre did, but Jeter's played much better in the field and the numbers back it up. Whether it's an abberration or the real thing remains to be seen.

I've heard this a lot...haven't seen him enough myself to say much, although I have seen a few nice plays he's made up the middle. He's always been pretty good in the hole and excellent on popups.
Good for him if he put extra work on this, but why did it take so long? He's been criticized for this for years...I'm sure he works out hard and he's always in fine shape, but you'd think that a guy in that kind of position making those bucks would work extra hard on any perceived flaw.

[SABR Matt]

This might be speculation, but I'm guessing that Girardi noticed how bad Jeter was up the middle (unlike Torre, who had a bad habit of getting comfortable and just letting the stars police themselves) and repositioned A-Rod and Jeter more toward the right side to help out a bit.

Also, Jeter may be working harder on defense now because he can feel his hitting skills vanishing.

[Sultan_1895-1948]

This might be speculation, but I'm guessing that Girardi noticed how bad Jeter was up the middle (unlike Torre, who had a bad habit of getting comfortable and just letting the stars police themselves) and repositioned A-Rod and Jeter more toward the right side to help out a bit.

I see what you're saying but how much sense does that really make? Try to prevent the occasional single from getting through....at the price of leaving the line more open to an extra base hit?

Also, Jeter may be working harder on defense now because he can feel his hitting skills vanishing.

I think this is more along the lines of truth. Perhaps he worked harder than ever on his lateral agility. Perhaps he's simply playing slightly deeper as well. Who knows.

[SABR Matt]

Moving A-Rod to the right won't leave the line more open, because A-Rod, unlike Jeter, has the skills to range quickly. He might give up a few extra doubles but it will save about a single a day.

But you might be right that the adjustment Girardi made was to simply move Jeter back three steps and pull a Ripken out of his hat.

[charger]

Khalil Greene is better than Jeter. He just doesnt play in a big market. He has better power and a better glove. The only reason Jeter is treated better is because the east coast media elites worship him.