Originally posted by bob
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Derek Jeter...4,000 Hits?
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Good points everybody.
I don't think anyone would disagree that he's going to at least cruise past 3,000 hits. Also, yes...he could be at the start of a decline. So I think I'm convinced that 4,000 looks a little out of reach for him. I think one thing that could also really hold him back is that he isn't a "stat collector" kind of a player (i.e Pete Rose). I don't see him as a player that'll "hang-on" too long. Once he feels his skills are really staring to decline, he'll bow out (imho). A-Rod getting 4,000? Possible for sure...and he's most definately a "stat collector". He pays very, very close attention to his numbers...
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Interesting topic. To break the all-time hits record, one must begin early in life, and become a hits machine.
I doubt if Derek has a real shot.
Cobb played his first ML game at 18 years, 8 months old. He had 12 seasons with 190 hits. 8 by the time he was 30, 4 after he turned 30. So, he slowed way down in his 30's. He was manager and playing his other guys ahead of himself. He stopped thinking of his own stats, because he saw managing and winning as his future bread and butter.
Hornsby played his first game at 19 years, 5 months. Got his first 190 hit season at age 24, and amassed 7 by time he was 33. But then he stopped cold after that. As far as he got.
Pete Rose made the majors when only 20. Got his first 190 hit season when only 22, and had 13 by the time he was 36, in 1979. Rose had a fantastic run in his 30's. Much more productive than Cobb/Hornsby.
But Rose made a terrible mistake by getting obsessed with Cobb's career hits record. Rose hit .325 in 1980, at the age of 38. His best BA after that was .285. Pete just sailed serenely over the cliff, into the great abyss.
Derek Jeter: Now let's look at Derek. Made the majors when only 20. Got his first 190 hit season when 23 in 1997. He now has 9 190 hit seasons and he is still but 33. If Derek turns out to be as productive in his 30's as Rose was, he might get the record. But if he turns out to be as productive as Cobb/Hornsby, he won't. It's as simple as that.
And who can see into the future? He's only hitting .287 this season after 87 games. Not a good omen. And we also don't know his degree of obsession to stay in the game and pursue records, like Rose. Well, I hope no one has that like Rose did. That was bad for Rose and bad for baseball.Last edited by Bill Burgess; 07-14-2008, 01:43 PM.
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Bill James' Favorite Toy says...
Based on his age, your player can be expected to play for 4.5 more years, at an average of 208 per year. At that rate, he will finish at 3392 for his career. He has a 10.6 percent chance to reach 4000.
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Originally posted by NewYork NewYork View Post...
SABR Matt, surprisingly Jeter's defense has been A LOT better this year. I have no idea why this is, but he's shown more range this year than I've seen in a long time from him. Maybe it's because of the extra work he put on his lateral movements in the off-season this year or maybe it's because Girardi's positioning him better than Torre did, but Jeter's played much better in the field and the numbers back it up. Whether it's an abberration or the real thing remains to be seen.
Good for him if he put extra work on this, but why did it take so long? He's been criticized for this for years...I'm sure he works out hard and he's always in fine shape, but you'd think that a guy in that kind of position making those bucks would work extra hard on any perceived flaw."I throw him four wide ones, then try to pick him off first base." - Preacher Roe on pitching to Musial
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This might be speculation, but I'm guessing that Girardi noticed how bad Jeter was up the middle (unlike Torre, who had a bad habit of getting comfortable and just letting the stars police themselves) and repositioned A-Rod and Jeter more toward the right side to help out a bit.
Also, Jeter may be working harder on defense now because he can feel his hitting skills vanishing.
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Originally posted by SABR Matt View PostThis might be speculation, but I'm guessing that Girardi noticed how bad Jeter was up the middle (unlike Torre, who had a bad habit of getting comfortable and just letting the stars police themselves) and repositioned A-Rod and Jeter more toward the right side to help out a bit.
Also, Jeter may be working harder on defense now because he can feel his hitting skills vanishing.
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Moving A-Rod to the right won't leave the line more open, because A-Rod, unlike Jeter, has the skills to range quickly. He might give up a few extra doubles but it will save about a single a day.
But you might be right that the adjustment Girardi made was to simply move Jeter back three steps and pull a Ripken out of his hat.
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It's a nice thought, but I don't think he'll get there. I don't think he'll be able to remain as productive as Pete Rose was in his late 30s and early 40s, nor will Jeter be in a position to keep himself in the lineup well past his prime as a player-manager. I also think decline could be on the way for Jeter and we might be seeing the beginning of it this year. In a thread I started in the Yankee forum I pointed out how a number of recent Hall of Fame caliber middle IFers saw a noticeable drop of in their production around Jeter's age. The guys I pointed to included Ripken, Sandberg, Biggio, Alomar, Trammell, Larkin, and Yount (even if he was in CF earlier. Guys like Yount and Alomar seemed like a lock to zoom past 3000 hits, but it didn't happen (Yount did manage to get by 3100). I think 3500 is a more reasonable expectation for Jeter.
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Originally posted by SABR Matt View PostJeter's losing (a) his throwing arm (b) his power, and (c) his speed. He's become a terrible fielding slap hitter with a good eye.
He'll be out of baseball by 38.Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!
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I'm a big Yankees fan...therefore I love Jeter.
BUT
Even I see and understand his defensive shortcomings. His Gold Gloves might be dubious...but then again, the whole voting scheme for Gold Glove and a host of other awards is also dubious at best.
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