At this rate he would be 90 when he gets it. There is zero chance. Getting him to 3000 is a charity for the Steinbrenners.
Most fans would rather see him finish his career with 3300-3500 hits and a .310 batting average than to see him reach 4,000 hits with a .297 average, which is what will most likely happen if he keeps playing past age 40. I think 2009, when he hit .334 will be his last great year. The longer he plays the less effective hitter he'll be.
I hope we're spared the sight of Jeter stumbling around in the field like Willie Mays with the Mets, but I expect he'll be back for at least one more year after this one, unless this one turns out to be a complete disaster. But as for 4000 hits, that was never going to happen.
Incidentally, Ichiro has 3577 hits between Japan and Seattle. He has a shot at 4K combined.
"Tactics were resorted to, unworthy of fair, manly players" - Brooklyn Eagle, June 12,1890
Some other positives regarding Jeter is that during his run on the Yankees, he's played almost every day minus 2 stints on the DL and that he plays almost every inning of every game that he plays.
A great accomplishment by Jeter to reach 3000 today. Predicting is folly, but I'll play the silly game. I predict that Jeter will end his Major League career with about 3360 hits, plus or minus about 20.
Wow...it was fun to read back into this thread (that I started).
I never said he would get to 4,000 of course, I was just setting the question up for debate.
So 4,000 is pretty much not going to happen...but the script is still being written.
there was an article pointing out that he reached 3000 at a younger age than Pete Rose. While this is true I think the difference is that Derek Jeter will not be a player manager at any point so he will not play himself over a more talented younger player, also he will not try to hold on just for the sake of breaking a record.
Rose did both.
Lisa: [showing off a tomato the size of a beach ball] I've grown a futuristic tomato by fertilizing it with anabolic steroids.
Bart: The kind that help our Olympic athletes reach new peaks of excellence?
Lisa: The very same.
-The Simpsons episode 9F14 "Duffless"
Rose was not a manager when he reached 4, 000 hits. He was with Montreal.
If Rose was selfish in his pursuit of the record, so was the great, great majority of baseball fans who wanted to see him do it.
3, 500 hits is certainly achievable for Jeter, especially if the other shortstops in the organization perform as they did during Jeter's recent absence. 4,000? I've not written it off entirely, the respect everyone had for Rose (retrospective admonishment does not count)during that time period is certainly there for Jeter now.
Tom George Mark Bob Ernie Soupy Alex Sparky
Joe Gary MCA Emanuel Sonny Dave Earl Stan
Jonathan Neil Roger Anthony Ray Thomas Art Don
As for Jeter, it's been a nice comparison that he was matching Rose's pace, but it's not going to continue. Jeter's has been in clear decline the past two seasons, and it unlikely to match Rose's later career output which included a 200+ hit season at age 38, leading the league at age 40, and 170+ hits at age 41. Jeter also won't have an opportunity to keep himself in the lineup regularly until age 45 as a player/manager as Rose did.
I've been pushing for the player/manager position for Jeter for years. Not quite yet, but after the 2013 season both his and Girardi's contracts are up. It's time to do it then. That would bring a tremendous amount of new fans to the Yanks (not that they need it). Baseball desperately needs another player/manager.
Last edited by White Knight; 07-11-2011 at 11:48 AM.
Lou Gehrig is the Truest Yankee of them all!
Rose might have been a "statistially" average hitting first baseman in '85, but in reality he picked and chose the pitchers he would face.
Jeter is a dead average hitting shortsop right now.