Derek Jeter...4,000 Hits?

[Dick Groat's syndrome]

Is Jeter ageing well?

Most WAR, age-36 season, 80+ G at SS
[tables]

Honus Wagner was a freak.

[White Knight]

Sorry, but I can't imagine most of you guys are serious. there is ZERO chance that Jeter will reach 4,000 hits, and well under 50% that he will reach 3,500.

There is never a zero chance as long as he is still playing. Maybe 5%, maybe even 1 or 2%, but not zero. If I owned the team he'd be player manager after his next contract is up.

[NJYankeeFan]

At this rate he would be 90 when he gets it. There is zero chance. Getting him to 3000 is a charity for the Steinbrenners.

[davewashere]

While watching a Mets/Yankees game, the announcer comments that Derek only needs 27 more hits to go 3,000 hits. Assuming he finishes 2011 with 180 hits, that will leave him with 3,127 hits and he'll be 37 years old come the start of 2011.

Who still gives him a shot at 4,000 hits?

He got 200 hits at the ages of 24, 25, 26, 31, 32, 33 and 35. He only got 179 in 2010.

Remember how Pete Rose sailed serenely over the cliff at age 42. He just stopped being able to produce at the plate. We all assumed he'd be able to go forever.

Wasn't Jeter on pace with Rose just a couple of years ago? It's hard to predict whether a player will fade slowly or quickly, but for Jeter it's clearly happening to him quite rapidly. The drop in batting average is alarming enough, but the drop in power is what would really concern me. Jeter's on pace for about 25 extra base hits this season. How long can the Yankees keep him in the lineup with that lack of production? I think they could be platooning him as early as next season. His declining speed will also mean fewer infield hits, which account for over 20% of Jeter's hits this season. If Jeter can manage 160 hits a season after hitting 3,000 he's still 8 seasons away from Rose. Who would be willing to carry Jeter for 4 seasons after his current contract is up? The Yankees might want to be loyal to the captain, but they also want to win.

[philliesfiend55]

Most fans would rather see him finish his career with 3300-3500 hits and a .310 batting average than to see him reach 4,000 hits with a .297 average, which is what will most likely happen if he keeps playing past age 40. I think 2009, when he hit .334 will be his last great year. The longer he plays the less effective hitter he'll be.

[ol' aches and pains]

I hope we're spared the sight of Jeter stumbling around in the field like Willie Mays with the Mets, but I expect he'll be back for at least one more year after this one, unless this one turns out to be a complete disaster. But as for 4000 hits, that was never going to happen.

Incidentally, Ichiro has 3577 hits between Japan and Seattle. He has a shot at 4K combined.

[Captain Cold Nose]

I hope we're spared the sight of Jeter stumbling around in the field like Willie Mays with the Mets, but I expect he'll be back for at least one more year after this one, unless this one turns out to be a complete disaster. But as for 4000 hits, that was never going to happen.

Incidentally, Ichiro has 3577 hits between Japan and Seattle. He has a shot at 4K combined.

I'd be surprised if he doesn't play the remainder of the contract as long as his health continues to hold up.

[BigRon]

Most fans would rather see him finish his career with 3300-3500 hits and a .310 batting average than to see him reach 4,000 hits with a .297 average, which is what will most likely happen if he keeps playing past age 40. I think 2009, when he hit .334 will be his last great year. The longer he plays the less effective hitter he'll be.

Sorry to keep beating what I think is a dead horse, but 4000 is NEVER going to happen. his skills are fading each year. Next year they will be lower than this year. When he starts hitting .240 for a full season with almost no power, and limited defense, there is no way the Yankees can keep him in the lineup any longer. THat point is likely to come in 2012, 2013 at the latest- potentially even in 2011.

[White Knight]

At this rate he would be 90 when he gets it. There is zero chance. Getting him to 3000 is a charity for the Steinbrenners.

Nope, he's still on pace to have a decent amount of hits. He'll do 180 or so, putting 4,000 at reach by 46.

[White Knight]

At this rate he would be 90 when he gets it. There is zero chance. Getting him to 3000 is a charity for the Steinbrenners.

Nope, he's still on pace to have a decent amount of hits. He'll do 180 or so, putting 4,000 at reach by 46.

[ipitch]

Barring injury, he should reach 4,000 hits.

4000 is NEVER going to happen.

Looks like someone is in for a surprise.

[ol' aches and pains]

Looks like someone is in for a surprise.

If he reaches 4K, a lot of people will be surprised. I'd be surprised by 3500.

[csh19792001]

I just updated this, gentlemen.

Just How Good Is Derek Jeter?

Moreover, for everyone here who is interested.....these are the all time offensive statistics while playing SS only.

CAREER
ALL SS
AVERAGE                         AVG    
1    Honus Wagner               .327   
2    Hughie Jennings            .324   
3    Joe Sewell                 .323   
4    Arky Vaughan               .322   
5    Nomar Garciaparra          .322 
6.   Derek Jeter                .312  

DOUBLES                         2B     
1    Honus Wagner                499   
2    Joe Cronin                  498   
3    Cal Ripken                  487 
4.   Derek Jeter                 480 
5.   Barry Larkin                441   

EXTRA BASE HITS                 EBH    
1    Cal Ripken                  883   
2    Honus Wagner                786   
3.   Derek Jeter                 780
4. Joe Cronin                     770
5.   Barry Larkin                715     

GAMES (as SS)                            G
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/Gm_ss_career.shtml 


HITS                             H     
1.   Derek Jeter                 3002
2.    Honus Wagner               2705   
3.    Luis Aparicio              2677   
4.    Luke Appling               2593   
5.    Cal Ripken                 2549   
6.    Ozzie Smith                2460   

HOMERUNS                        HR     
1    Cal Ripken                  353   
2    Alex Rodriguez              345   
3    Ernie Banks                 298  
4.  Derek Jeter                  236 
4    Vern Stephens               214   
5    Barry Larkin                198   
  
RUNS CREATED                    RC     
1    Honus Wagner               1823
2.   Derek Jeter                1705   
3.    Bill Dahlen               1532   
4.   Luke Appling                1429   
5.    Cal Ripken                 1403   
T6.   Barry Larkin               1377   
T6.   Joe Cronin                 1377   

STRIKEOUTS                      SO     
[B]1.   Derek Jeter                 1605/B]
2.    Royce Clayton              1172   
3.    Dave Concepcion            1139   
4.    Bert Campaneris            1123   
5.    Greg Gagne                 1121   

TOTAL BASES                     TB 
1.    Derek Jeter                4316    
2.    Cal Ripken                 4181   
3.    Honus Wagner               3856   
4.    Barry Larkin               3527   
5.    Luis Aparicio              3504   
6.    Alan Trammell              3442

[jjpm74]

I just updated this, gentlemen.

Thanks for the update, but do keep in mind that Jeter has played 24 games as a DH in his career.

Some other positives regarding Jeter is that during his run on the Yankees, he's played almost every day minus 2 stints on the DL and that he plays almost every inning of every game that he plays.

[BigRon]

A great accomplishment by Jeter to reach 3000 today. Predicting is folly, but I'll play the silly game. I predict that Jeter will end his Major League career with about 3360 hits, plus or minus about 20.

[csh19792001]

Thanks for the update, but do keep in mind that Jeter has played 24 games as a DH in his career.

Thank you.

I tried to take his DH games into account, but may have not...

[BSmile]

Wow...it was fun to read back into this thread (that I started).
I never said he would get to 4,000 of course, I was just setting the question up for debate.
So 4,000 is pretty much not going to happen...but the script is still being written.

[ol' aches and pains]

Wow...it was fun to read back into this thread (that I started).
I never said he would get to 4,000 of course, I was just setting the question up for debate.
So 4,000 is pretty much not going to happen...but the script is still being written.

4K is out of the question, but he sure reached 3K in style. My hat's off to him.

[jjpm74]

A great accomplishment by Jeter to reach 3000 today. Predicting is folly, but I'll play the silly game. I predict that Jeter will end his Major League career with about 3360 hits, plus or minus about 20.

Jeter is clearly slowing down (though the 5-5 yesterday with the upper deck HR shows he still has some fuel left in the tank). It's hard to say where Jeter will end up when he hangs it up. Of the 28 who have 3000 or more hits, only 4 of them were younger than Jeter when they accomplished that feat. I doubt 4000 hits is in his future, but top 5 all time is reachable. I'll go with 3515 as his career hits total when he hangs it up in 2-3 years. 4000+ if he is doesn't. He's already hinted that he does not want to call it a career when his contract is up.

[sturg1dj]

there was an article pointing out that he reached 3000 at a younger age than Pete Rose. While this is true I think the difference is that Derek Jeter will not be a player manager at any point so he will not play himself over a more talented younger player, also he will not try to hold on just for the sake of breaking a record.

Rose did both.

[BigRon]

there was an article pointing out that he reached 3000 at a younger age than Pete Rose. While this is true I think the difference is that Derek Jeter will not be a player manager at any point so he will not play himself over a more talented younger player, also he will not try to hold on just for the sake of breaking a record.

Rose did both.

Sure, but Rose kept banging out hits at a high rate until he was well past 3500. It's true he hung on to break the record, but he was going to get real close to 4000 under more "normal" circumstances. THe chances of Jeter approaching 4000 are less than infinitesimal.

[Captain Cold Nose]

Sure, but Rose kept banging out hits at a high rate until he was well past 3500. It's true he hung on to break the record, but he was going to get real close to 4000 under more "normal" circumstances. THe chances of Jeter approaching 4000 are less than infinitesimal.

Indeed.

Rose was not a manager when he reached 4, 000 hits. He was with Montreal.

If Rose was selfish in his pursuit of the record, so was the great, great majority of baseball fans who wanted to see him do it.

3, 500 hits is certainly achievable for Jeter, especially if the other shortstops in the organization perform as they did during Jeter's recent absence. 4,000? I've not written it off entirely, the respect everyone had for Rose (retrospective admonishment does not count)during that time period is certainly there for Jeter now.

[DoubleX]

3, 500 hits is certainly achievable for Jeter, especially if the other shortstops in the organization perform as they did during Jeter's recent absence.

Eduardo Nunez is starting to come around and one could see him improve with regular play. He'll get another chance now to play everyday with Alex Rodriguez out for at least a month. How Nunez plays during this span could well have an impact on Jeter going forward. The Yankees are obviously very high on Nunez, they talk him up quite a bit and their refusal to include him in a trade to the Mariners for Cliff Lee is reportedly what killed that deal. Looking at his minor league numbers, I don't see what all the hype is (.687 minor league OPS, though he did improve at the higher levels), but he's a rare Yankees prospect that team seems determined to give a shot.

As for Jeter, it's been a nice comparison that he was matching Rose's pace, but it's not going to continue. Jeter's has been in clear decline the past two seasons, and it unlikely to match Rose's later career output which included a 200+ hit season at age 38, leading the league at age 40, and 170+ hits at age 41. Jeter also won't have an opportunity to keep himself in the lineup regularly until age 45 as a player/manager as Rose did.

[White Knight]

I've been pushing for the player/manager position for Jeter for years. Not quite yet, but after the 2013 season both his and Girardi's contracts are up. It's time to do it then. That would bring a tremendous amount of new fans to the Yanks (not that they need it). Baseball desperately needs another player/manager.

[brett]

Sure, but Rose kept banging out hits at a high rate until he was well past 3500. It's true he hung on to break the record, but he was going to get real close to 4000 under more "normal" circumstances. THe chances of Jeter approaching 4000 are less than infinitesimal.

The year after Rose passed 3000, he moved to first base full time. He only hit better than an average first baseman in one totally fill season, '79, and in the strike shortened '81 (and just slightly better, or dead average that year).
Rose might have been a "statistially" average hitting first baseman in '85, but in reality he picked and chose the pitchers he would face.

Jeter is a dead average hitting shortsop right now.