GM for a Day - My Offseason Checklist

[mg050369]

As the regular season wraps up, I've started thinking about what moves I would make (or try) in the off season:

Catcher - Two year deal for Tek, looking to trade with Texas for Salt, Teagarden or Ramirez as his backup and heir apparent. A 60/40 split in '09, 40/60 in '10, with Exposito sliding in as the backup in '11.

Lock up Bay and Papelbon - look to do the same for Pedroia and Lester the following off season.

Find a new home for Lugo - my first thought is STL, paying most of salary, seeking either McCellelan or Motte in return. I re-ink Cora to a one year deal to backup Lowrie.

Make a run at Blake - The key will be whether another team offers him a pricey contract as a starter. If not and he can be had a decent price, he would be a great fit backing up Lowell, Youk and each corner outfield spot.

Consider a run at CC - I salivate at the thought of adding him to the rotation. The payroll should support it but he'll most likely get a huge Santana like deal that would put him out of my price range.

My '09 roster:

Starters: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Lowell, Varitek, Lowrie
Bench: TX Catcher, Carter?, Blake, Cora, Crisp (if not traded)
Rotation: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buc, Wakefield
Bullpen: Papelbon, Ohkajima, Masterson, MDC, Lopez, McCellelan/Motte

[Boston Boxer]

i would like to try and move Drew as well...i love what he did this year, but i think his back is just not going to hold up. I would like to get a right handed masher or maybe try and get Milton Bradley. I know he has some baggage but damn, that guy can play baseball and hit with anyone in the league.

[scaffolds]

As the regular season wraps up, I've started thinking about what moves I would make (or try) in the off season:

Catcher - Two year deal for Tek, looking to trade with Texas for Salt, Teagarden or Ramirez as his backup and heir apparent. A 60/40 split in '09, 40/60 in '10, with Exposito sliding in as the backup in '11.

Lock up Bay and Papelbon - look to do the same for Pedroia and Lester the following off season.

Find a new home for Lugo - my first thought is STL, paying most of salary, seeking either McCellelan or Motte in return. I re-ink Cora to a one year deal to backup Lowrie.

Make a run at Blake - The key will be whether another team offers him a pricey contract as a starter. If not and he can be had a decent price, he would be a great fit backing up Lowell, Youk and each corner outfield spot.

Consider a run at CC - I salivate at the thought of adding him to the rotation. The payroll should support it but he'll most likely get a huge Santana like deal that would put him out of my price range.

My '09 roster:

Starters: Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Lowell, Varitek, Lowrie
Bench: TX Catcher, Carter?, Blake, Cora, Crisp (if not traded)
Rotation: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buc, Wakefield
Bullpen: Papelbon, Ohkajima, Masterson, MDC, Lopez, McCellelan/Motte

MG050369, that line up won't hit enough to beat Tampa's. Toronto's and even the Yankees ( after some off season FA signing) pitching in 2009.

[Mike D.]

i would like to try and move Drew as well...i love what he did this year, but i think his back is just not going to hold up. I would like to get a right handed masher or maybe try and get Milton Bradley. I know he has some baggage but damn, that guy can play baseball and hit with anyone in the league.

So, we'd replace injury-prone JD Drew with injury-prone Bradley...and get to deal with is attitude, to boot? No thanks! No Carl Everett redux, please!

[Mike D.]

Catcher - Two year deal for Tek, looking to trade with Texas for Salt, Teagarden or Ramirez as his backup and heir apparent. A 60/40 split in '09, 40/60 in '10, with Exposito sliding in as the backup in '11.

So, would the Texas catcher be the heir to Varitek, or would it be Exposito?

Rotation: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buc, Wakefield
Bullpen: Papelbon, Ohkajima, Masterson, MDC, Lopez, McCellelan/Motte

You have Masterson in the pen. Do you see that as his future, or do you see him as a starter long term?

[Mike D.]

Because of smart drafting and overall good management, the Sox don't need to do anything crazy this off-season. They have a lot of money coming off the books (Manny, Schilling, Tek, etc), but I don't see them going after a big name free agent.

The catcher situation will need to be figured out...whether to keep Tek around and for how long and how much. I expect we'll see him back...I'm interested to see what he is looking for as far as years and dollars go. If you can get a young catcher who could be his backup/student/eventual replacement, I say go for it...or if they think Exposito is the guy in a couple of years, they could get by with some combination of Varitek/Brown/Kottaras. That group wouldn't be a strength on the team, but they'd be OK.

After that, it's about finding bench guys and a few more bullpen options. With Drew's health up in the air, I try to find a 4th outfielder with some pop and a good enough arm to play right. With Ellsbury and Drew both being lefties, a right handed bat makes the most sense. I'd take Casey and Cora back if the terms were reasonable. Both were solid enough and good clubhouse guys.

I wouldn't spend big on bullpen help (either in dollars or in a trade), but adding some depth couldn't hurt. At some point during the season, guys like Bowden, Bard, and maybe Hunter Jones should be able to help similarly to how Masterson has this year.

Looking at the system, there isn't much for high level prospects at 3b. There are some guys lower in the system (Middlebrooks, Almanzar), but nobody ready soon. With Lowell getting towards the end of his contract, they need a plan there. The plan might well be to lock up Youk and move him to 3b when and if Lars Anderson stakes his claim to 1b.

If they're happy with Lowrie as their starting shortstop (at least until he's challenged by some of the guys in the system), they should dump Lugo unceremoniously. Either pay the whole contract and get something decent in return (like in the Renteria deal) or just dump him for a bag of BP balls or a minor league scrub while picking up only a smaller portion of his salary.

Crisp has really helped his trade value, especially of late. If they are convinced Ellsbury is ready to play CF every day, and they go in the direction of a 4th OF with more pop, they should try to move Crisp. Get what you can for him in term of prospects, and wish him well.

All in all, nothing huge required this off-season...just keep to the plan, keep moving guys up the system, and fill in holes as required.

[Imgran]

Let Casey walk, promote Carter or Bailey
Let Varitek and Cash walk, promote Kottaras and Brown
Put the moves on C. C. Sabathia and A. J. Burnett.
Spend the rest of the offseason exploring various relief options to replace Timlin.

There. Offseason done.

[mg050369]

MG050369, that line up won't hit enough to beat Tampa's. Toronto's and even the Yankees ( after some off season FA signing) pitching in 2009.

Perhaps, but they are 2nd in the AL, 3rd in the Majors in runs scored this year. Time and upcoming opposing rotations will tell whether they see a significant drop in their '09 offensive numbers.

I believe the challenge is finding suitable offensive upgrades. Looking at possible spots:

Varitek - the greatest opportunity, however, depending on the alternatives, you could see a defensive downgrade.

Lugo - You could sign Furcal but that could be a pricey endeavor. Barring a sophomore slump, I believe Lowrie can provide an upgrade.

Lowell - 1st year of a 3 year deal, he's not going anywhere in '09.

Ellsbury - I would hope in his 2nd full season, his numbers would improve. Barring a trade for another CF, I don't know if there is a significant FA upgrade out there.

Drew - You could look at someone like Burrell or Dunn (moving Bay to RF) but I'm not sure there would be a lot of team lining up get Drew at $14M/year.

I do, however, welcome feedback on realistic scenarios (trade or FA) that could provide significant offensive upgrades.

[Mike D.]

I agree with mg050369 in the fact that there aren't a lot of obvious upgradable positions for the Sox in '09.

While losing Manny takes some of the thunder out of the middle of the lineup, the emergence of Youk and Pedroia as offensive forces has really made the lineup more balanced. With a healthy Lowell and Drew (hopefully), it's a pretty solid lineup. Especially if Lowrie and Ellsbury can continue to improve.

Varitek is a weak hitter at this point, but there really isn't much out there for an offensive upgrade at the catching position.

One thing I love about the lineup is the amount of home-grown talent there. By my count, four of the nine starting spots will be home grown next year (Youk, Ellsbury, Lowrie, Pedroia) with a 5th (Tek) being a guy the Sox traded for as a minor leaguer. Lowell and Bay came in trades, leaving just two guys who came as FA's (Ortiz and Drew), and Ortiz originally came to the Sox as a very low-cost FA after being non-tendered.

The pitching staff is also very heavy on the home grown talent, with only Dice-K and Okajima coming via FA (unless you count Wakefield, who was another low cost pickup after being DFA). Beckett and Lopez were trades, and everyone else is home grown.

To a fan who grew up a Red Sox fan during the FA era, that marks a HUGE departure from the way things used to be done.

[Evangelion]

MG050369, that line up won't hit enough to beat Tampa's. Toronto's and even the Yankees ( after some off season FA signing) pitching in 2009.

Scaffolds, are you aware of what's happening in Toronto? Marcum likely done already for next season. A.J. Burnett is likely gone. Not sure on the situation regarding Dustin McGowan. In short, Toronto, which use to be 5 deep, will likely only have Halladay and Litsch returning next season. While Purcey been impressive, the Blue Jays are going to be downgrading their rotation next season. I'm not sure what type of moves they'll be making this winter, if they don't make many moves, I just don't see the Jays as a threat.

[Evangelion]

Let Casey walk, promote Carter or Bailey
Let Varitek and Cash walk, promote Kottaras and Brown
Put the moves on C. C. Sabathia and A. J. Burnett.
Spend the rest of the offseason exploring various relief options to replace Timlin.

There. Offseason done.

Red Sox will not put their trust in two rookies at the catching position. Why would you even suggest that? Because you like Kottaras and Brown, despite not having much of a MLB ceiling for success. Seems you over-rating them. I'm not oppose to the other suggestions. As Carter and Bailey won't be terrible bench options.

[Mike D.]

The nice thing about Bailey and Carter are that this year they both saw substantial time in the OF in Pawtucket. Calling either even "average" in LF is probably being generous, but it would give the team a little just a tiny bit more versatility over say, a backup who can play only 1b.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

I don't see Jason BAy long-term in Boston. He is good yeah, but not very good. I think the Red Sox will make a run at Matt Holliday. Jason Bay plus Clay Bucholz. This should do it. I love Clay Bucholz, and I think he will be a great player. Maybe the RedSox will also sign Jason Bay and give up nobody.

But I expect the RedSox do something this Winter. They will put the price up for CC of course and yeah they could also need him.

-1 year-deal for Varitek

-Get a good young backup cathcer in a trade, maybe also call-up wagner, exposito or Kottaras.

-Get massiv Bullpenhelp

-get a front-line starter and we are unbeatable if healthy.

[Mike D.]

I don't see Jason BAy long-term in Boston. He is good yeah, but not very good. I think the Red Sox will make a run at Matt Holliday. Jason Bay plus Clay Bucholz. This should do it. I love Clay Bucholz, and I think he will be a great player. Maybe the RedSox will also sign Jason Bay and give up nobody.

That seems like an aweful lot to give up for a guy who will be a FA at the end of the year, and who is going to demand huge money despite a track record that doesn't show just how good he'll be away from Coors field.

I think Bay is the Sox LF for 2009, no doubt. Beyond that, who knows. If they want Holliday, they can always go after him in the FA market after the 2009 season.

[scaffolds]

Perhaps, but they are 2nd in the AL, 3rd in the Majors in runs scored this year. Time and upcoming opposing rotations will tell whether they see a significant drop in their '09 offensive numbers.

I believe the challenge is finding suitable offensive upgrades. Looking at possible spots:

Varitek - the greatest opportunity, however, depending on the alternatives, you could see a defensive downgrade.

Lugo - You could sign Furcal but that could be a pricey endeavor. Barring a sophomore slump, I believe Lowrie can provide an upgrade.

Lowell - 1st year of a 3 year deal, he's not going anywhere in '09.

Ellsbury - I would hope in his 2nd full season, his numbers would improve. Barring a trade for another CF, I don't know if there is a significant FA upgrade out there.

Drew - You could look at someone like Burrell or Dunn (moving Bay to RF) but I'm not sure there would be a lot of team lining up get Drew at $14M/year.

I do, however, welcome feedback on realistic scenarios (trade or FA) that could provide significant offensive upgrades.

the Sox hitting numbers are miss leading they have been put up in circumstances like gainst Texas, Baltimore or the likes and Sox's hitting hasn't been consistent. The Red Sox has made many very average pitchers look like Hall of famers. part of the problem it has been talent, the team has been very inconsistent (hitting) with runners in scoring position We all know about Tek's hitting issues, Drew had about six weeks that he was hot, but not much the rest of the time, some it was health related, but not the rest of the time, in addition we all know about Crisp and Ellsbury ups and downs, this team doesn't have a clean up hitter, Youkilis has had a very good year but he isn't a clean up hitter. The other problem is the manager and the hitting coach. Francona doesn't know have to use the bench and pinch hitting is foreign to him, in addition he doesn't use the speed of the team enough, he needs to hit and run and no play so much for the 3 run home run. David Magadan is the wrong hitting coach and not a big league hitting coach, this is a man that was fired by the Padres for not doing his job only to be hired by his friend (Francona) as long as Magadan is the hitting coach there are going to be some hitting problems.

[mg050369]

Scaff, I accept that my lineup isn't the '27 Yankees. The owners fire me as GM of the day and bring you in as my replacement. What reasonable moves do you make to upgrade the offense?

[Evangelion]

I don't see Jason BAy long-term in Boston. He is good yeah, but not very good. I think the Red Sox will make a run at Matt Holliday. Jason Bay plus Clay Bucholz. This should do it. I love Clay Bucholz, and I think he will be a great player. Maybe the RedSox will also sign Jason Bay and give up nobody.

But I expect the RedSox do something this Winter. They will put the price up for CC of course and yeah they could also need him.

-1 year-deal for Varitek

-Get a good young backup cathcer in a trade, maybe also call-up wagner, exposito or Kottaras.

-Get massiv Bullpenhelp

-get a front-line starter and we are unbeatable if healthy.

Have you not seen Holliday's home and away splits? His OPS .850-.880 range on the road while his home OPS is .900-1.000. While his away OPS is good, it's not great. He'll be looking for a long term contract in 20-24 million per year.

No, that won't do it. It would cost you a lot more than Jason Bay, who will be in walk year, and Buchholz. Add another prospect and the Rockies might take that deal due to the fact they'll receive a good player to replace Holliday for that season along with prospects. Buchholz won't be enough.

I believe the Red Sox will go with the latter if they like what they seen from Bay, like I have.

You known it's highly unlikely Varitek would take a one year deal. You do known his agent is Boras, right? Unless Varitek is very friendly to the team, I highly doubt he'll take a one year deal next season.

Rotation is strong. Should they can make it stronger, but it's not a pressing need. Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester are in the rotation next year. I figure Boston will pick up Wakefield's option and you can slot him back in the rotation next year. If Sabathia did sign with Boston. It's just scary imagining a rotation with Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester and Sabathia. All players in their prime. Still, I don't see Boston making much effort at Sabathia, Sheets or Burnett, if he options out.

Be fun to see Lowe back, but there's no need for him in Boston. His departure was fine, but he had his issues with FO.

[scaffolds]

Scaff, I accept that my lineup isn't the '27 Yankees. The owners fire me as GM of the day and bring you in as my replacement. What reasonable moves do you make to upgrade the offense?

I wasn't trying to put down your line up, just the issues that the Red Sox are having scoring runs, tonight its a good example, a very average pitcher have shut them down for 5 innings. Its a line up that's very base on balls (Specially on the road) dependent, the lack of a clean up hitter gets exposed. It will be very hard to upgrade the offense because the contracts of Drew, Lugo, Lowell and Tek its needed back because the way he handles the pitching staff. A way that i will like to see them up graded it, is with the Sox making up their mind who their CF of the future will be (more likely Ellsbury) but he needs to stop up cutting his swing and them trade Crisp, it isn't that i don't like Crisp, just that he isn't the ideal fourth outfielder and go for a productive right handed bat as the fourth outfielder, one who could share time with Drew in right field.

[hellborn]

I don't see Jason BAy long-term in Boston. He is good yeah, but not very good. I think the Red Sox will make a run at Matt Holliday. Jason Bay plus Clay Bucholz. This should do it. I love Clay Bucholz, and I think he will be a great player. Maybe the RedSox will also sign Jason Bay and give up nobody.

...

Why would you trade Bay and Clay for Holliday when Bay and Holliday are basically the same age and the same player, eh?
You're basically saying that Buchholz is worth nothing, then.

[SwissRedSoxFan]

Have you not seen Holliday's home and away splits? His OPS .850-.880 range on the road while his home OPS is .900-1.000. While his away OPS is good, it's not great. He'll be looking for a long term contract in 20-24 million per year.

No, that won't do it. It would cost you a lot more than Jason Bay, who will be in walk year, and Buchholz. Add another prospect and the Rockies might take that deal due to the fact they'll receive a good player to replace Holliday for that season along with prospects. Buchholz won't be enough.

I believe the Red Sox will go with the latter if they like what they seen from Bay, like I have.

You known it's highly unlikely Varitek would take a one year deal. You do known his agent is Boras, right? Unless Varitek is very friendly to the team, I highly doubt he'll take a one year deal next season.

Rotation is strong. Should they can make it stronger, but it's not a pressing need. Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester are in the rotation next year. I figure Boston will pick up Wakefield's option and you can slot him back in the rotation next year. If Sabathia did sign with Boston. It's just scary imagining a rotation with Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester and Sabathia. All players in their prime. Still, I don't see Boston making much effort at Sabathia, Sheets or Burnett, if he options out.

Be fun to see Lowe back, but there's no need for him in Boston. His departure was fine, but he had his issues with FO.

Dont get me wrong, I like Jason Bay. Maybe youre right, the RedSox should try to ink him long-term. He has been veery consistent. A J.D. Drew-like contract would do it. But I think Holliday would get used to the park here and put some better numbers, but maybe the difference is not worth Clay Buchholz. I just think Holliday is the better hitter all-around. Its now the question by what margin.
V-Tek will get a one-year contract. I give a sh... on Scott Boras. He just didnt deserve more. Thts a fact and he should know it. We are not as stupid as the yankees are and give 36-year old catchers 4-year-contracts.
Maybe a one-year-deal which extends if V-Tek reaches .260avg. .350 obp. 15 hr and 60 rbi. Then I would give him 8 mill a year. Epstein is not going to overpay old players. see schilling extension and lowell who both got better contracts offers and signed with boston anyway. There is no way V-Tek is going anywhere else. He knows that, I dont care what he is saing in the media. Thats just to put himself i a better position.

[mg050369]

Splits aside, assuming or hoping that Holiday will be a significant upgrade over Bay may be a stretch for two reasons. First, Bay has shown that he can put up .300/30/100 numbers which could be improved in Boston's lineup. Second, not every player can play in Boston. Holliday may be a beast in Fenway, however, but Bay in two months has shown thus far he can produce in Boston's spotlight.

Bay would be my first choice and priority. If you can't do a deal with him, I would make a full out blitz to get a Holliday deal done if he hits the FA market.

[The Kid]

A little piece I wrote about a month ago:

Looking Ahead: Red Sox 2009

While most Red Sox fans are looking for a title this year, it never hurts to look ahead every once and a while. With a potentially huge free agent market this offseason, the Red Sox will certainly be looking for a couple big names this winter.
With Jason Varitek’s contract up after the season, let’s take a look at the possible moves the Sox could make catching wise: the first, and best move in this man’s opinion, is to resign Tek. His smarts and handling of pitchers alone merits him at least a one year deal. Agent Scott Boras will probably be looking for a three year deal, so the Sox may have to pull a Mike Lowell and give Varitek more money or another year than they’d wish to. That’s Scott Boras, for you. The second option for the Red Sox at the catching position is to trade for a catcher. The two best names out there on the block this offseason will be Victor Martinez and Jarrod Saltellemachia. While I like Martinez’s bat, I don’t see him as nearly as smart a catcher as Varitek. Salty is an above average catcher, and a decent bat, and is probably the most well-rounded catcher on the market, but I don’t see him as a good fit for the Sox. The best free agent catcher on the free agent market this season is Ivan Rodriguez, but again, I don’t see him as a good fit for the Sox. The Sox prefer to have batters take balls and draw walks, which is something I-Rod just doesn’t do. He also believes himself to be a starter no matter what, and if he starts losing starts, he’ll demand a trade, just as he did in Detroit. And this certainly isn’t the Marlins I-Rod. Although a Hall of Famer, Rodriguez is in his decline phase. No thank you, I’ll take Varitek.
The infield is pretty much set. There aren’t many big names infield-wise, and I’m quite content with our infield. The only player you could think of calling a question mark is Jed Lowrie (who should be given the starting job next year, hands down), but I certainly wouldn’t. The kid is Bill Mueller in the form of a shortstop.
The outfield is also pretty set. The only real big name out there, worth being signed as a starter, is Vladimir Guerrero, but I doubt the Angels won’t resign him.
The starting pitching class is what really excites me. CC Sabathia is going to be a free agent, probably the biggest name out there, and if the Sox are willing to give Sabathia the largest contract a pitcher has ever signed (which he will get, regardless of where he goes), then the Sox will have the deadliest starting pitching rotation in the game. There are also some other real good names that will be out there, such as Ben Sheets, Brad Penny, and A.J Burnett. My mouth just waters thinking of what the rotation could be next year: Sabathia, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Penny, Lester. Shivers down the spine.
There will also some good bullpen help on the market this year. Names such as Eddie Guardado, Brian Fuentes, Al Reyes, Jeremy Affedlt, Juan Rincon, and Brandon Lyon. Could Brian Fuentes be willing to setup for Papelbon? If so, then the pitching staff could be lights out, top to bottom, and Affedlt and/or Reyes could also be a step up from Mike Timlin and David Aardsma.
This has been a quick look into the future of the Red Sox. This winter could be a truly great one, so please Theo, fill the stockings!

[Jager]

The Kid. I have to say that I am quite disappointed. There aren't any moves to make this offseason. The FA class while good on paper, are all injury risks. Vlad, Burnett, Penny, and even Sheets hasn't been the horse he once was. The Sox won't go after Sabathia because of the amount of innings he's thrown in the past few years, plus the Brewers are killing the guy this year since getting him. The Sox will want no part of that arm, and frankly I don't think many teams should. Of course he'll get paid, and yes I think he'll be good for a few years, but he's going to get a long contract, and I could see Sabathia's arm falling off in a few years. Penny has been a huge injury problem this year, and the past couple years. Not worth going after. Burnett concerns me first because the amount of times he's been on the DL, and second he seems to only pitch to his potential when his team is out of the race. Sheets I have heard absolutely no rumblings of in this area. I think he's a NL pitcher, and I think he'll stay in the NL. As far as relief help, it's all a crapshoot anyway. Fuentes could be great one year, then very bad in the AL. Just look at Marte who was the guy everyone wanted. Went to the Yankees and got killed. I don't see the Sox doing very much this offseason. I could see them trying to trade Lugo, but I don't see that happening due to his contract. They would have to pay nearly all of it, but it's plausible. I can also see them trading Crisp, but there isn't going to be some huge payoff for Crisp even after he's played better this year. I just don't think there's going to be very many moves this offseason.

[Imgran]

I just don't think there's going to be very many moves this offseason.

I don't think there needs to be too many this year. Everywhere we have performance concerns, it's the performance of a veteran who's locked down to a longish term contract. Everywhere we have a hole we have at least one young player in the minors ready to take over.

I might make one move for a reliever, but then again maybe not.

[Boston Boxer]

So, we'd replace injury-prone JD Drew with injury-prone Bradley...and get to deal with is attitude, to boot? No thanks! No Carl Everett redux, please!

ya you are right, we should stick with Drew who has not played for as long as i can remember...you are right, we dont want a guy who is 3rd in the AL in batting. He is not Everett by any stretch. Although he has had his moments, he is doing very well with behavior this year. Bottom line, we need a RF.