Originally Posted by
Dave O'Brien
Alabama son Peavy to pitch for Braves? It’s possible
By David O'Brien | Monday, October 6, 2008, 06:28 PM
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
He’s 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011.
I don’t know, but it seems like the only way Jake Peavy could be a more perfect fit for the pitching-hungry Braves would be if he were a native Southerner.
What’s that? He was born in, raised in, and still lives in Alabama?
Well, hell, then what’s the holdup? Get that boy in a Braves uni, stat.
OK, so it’s not going to be that easy. But for all the denizens out there who believe your Braves don’t have a chance of prying Peavy out of San Diego and bringing home this native son — hey, he’s practically that — to pitch in Atlanta, well, don’t be so quick to dimiss the notion.
The Braves are holding organizational meetings this week at Dark Star (aka Lake Buena Vista, Fla.) and you can bet that Peavy’s name is going to be discussed, as in, how serious are the Padres about the possibility of trading him, and what will they want in return?
For a team that’s publicly stated it will use its assets however necessary to fill its primary needs — two starting pitchers and an outfielder with some power — rest assured the Braves will talk about how much of those assets, how many young players and/or prospects, it would take to get Peavy from the Padres.
What do you think, is that something most of you would get behind? I’m guessing most of you would.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big ol’ $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill, perhaps more than $45 mill, to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract would work well because it would also allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back whichever ones they can or want to from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and the two still-not-sure-if-they-can-pitch-agains, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
The notion of getting an in-his-prime ace like Peavy, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons with mostly mediocre San Diego teams, a guy who posted sub 2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, became a legitimate possibility after Padres GM Kevin Towers said last week that no one was untouchable, not even Peavy.
That’s because the Padres have ever-present payroll restrictions and are coming off a wholly disappointing 99-loss season, and Towers said they want to get younger.
Peavy’s plenty young, and they’d much prefer to keep their all-time strikeout leader, but if a team approaches towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, he’ll listen.
The Braves have a couple of potential big advantages over, say, the big-market teams in New York. For one, they have more quality pitching depth in their minor league system that they might be willing to part with (GM Frank Wren said last week that the Braves might be able to make a trade using some of that pitching, without trading top prospect Tommy Hanson).
Secondly, and this is a potential deal-maker or breaker: It’s quite possible that Peavy might not approve a trade to a New York team. Folks, the dude plays baseball in San Diego and yet chooses to make his residence in Semmes, Ala.
The season ends and he leaves sun-kissed SoCal to winter with the wife and kids in ‘Bama. So, you think this country boy just might be more inclined to approve a trade to the team he grew up loving, the Braves, than, say, the Yankees?
I’m thinking that’s a good bet.
The Braves lost their ace, Tim Hudson, when the Alabama native and former Auburn standout had Tommy John surgery that will likely sideline Hudson for all but the last month of the 2009 season, and possibly the entire season.
That made it imperative that the Braves this winter find a replacement No. 1 starter to replace Hudson, whose four-year, $47 million contract extension runs through 2009 (there’s a $12 mill option for 2010, with a $1 mill buyout).
Now comes the tantalizing possibility of Peavy, who, by the way, was set to pitch for Auburn before he signed with the Padres out of high school (St. Paul’s Episcopal) in 1999. He was a modest 10-11 in 27 starts this season, but that record is more indicative of the Padres’ anemic run support than anything else.
Peavy had an outstanding 2.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP (walks-plus-hits per inning pitched) that was right at his career mark. He received just under 3.7 support runs per nine innings pitched, a woeful figure that included eight starts in which the Padres scored one or no runs while he was in the games.
If Peavy is indeed available, the Braves should make a serious attempt to get him, provided they’re comfortable with his health.
When I asked someone in the organization, the response was anything but dismissive of the possibility of making a run at Peavy, if the Padres would deal him.
While they don’t want to mortgage the future by trading away top prospects such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Jordan Schafer and Hanson, the Braves have plenty of other prospects, especially pitchers, who might interest Towers enough to make a deal.
They don’t want to give up a pitcher such as Hanson or Kris Medlen, or an outfielder such as Gorkys Hernandez or Schafer, but perhaps the Braves would bite the bullet if that’s what it took to get Peavy, who’s no ordinary ace. Maybe — and I’m just throwing out ideas here — the Padres would be interested in Kelly Johnson, since they’re not certain about their second base position next season and like good OBP guys who can drive balls to the gaps.
(If I’m the Braves, I wouldn’t want to give up Johnson unless absolutely necessary. I really do think he can be one of the best hitting second basemen in baseball next season, and that there’s a good chance he’ll become less streaky.)
If they move a Johnson or another young player off the current team, then the Braves would have another need to fill. But again, Peavy is a special talent. A serious ace. He is one of the eight or 10 bonafide, true “No. 1” pitchers in baseball, a pitcher you hand the ball to and expect to win every time.
He’s got nasty stuff and a hard-nosed demeanor and work ethic. The whole package, if you ask folks who should know, including Don Sutton.
The drawback, or potential red flag: Elbow.
He had an elbow scare in May that sidelined him four weeks, but an MRI showed no ligament damage and Peavy bounced back from that to record 13 quality starts in his last 18 games.
In seven of his 13 starts after July 4, he allowed one or no runs in seven or more innings, including an Aug. 31 start against Colorado in which he threw eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and two walks.
He only made two starts in September, missing some time to witness the birth of his third child. The Padres were cautious bringing him back from that slowly, since they were out of postseason contention and because of the earlier elbow problems.
Peavy also missed six weeks for a strained flexor tendon in that forearm/elbow in 2004, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA in 27 starts with 177 strikeouts in 163-1/3 innings.
In each of the next three seasons, he recorded over 200 innings and at least 215 strikeouts, including 223-1/3 innings with a league-high 240 strikeouts in 2007, when he finished 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and won the Cy Young Award.
I went back to early in the 2006 season to find where Peavy really struggled for any significant period. Then I checked his stats since then, to compare him with some other of the game’s elite aces.
Beginning with July 26, 2006, Jake Peavy is 36-20 with a 2.63 ERA, with a .215 opponents’ average, 490 strikeouts and 154 walks in 474-1/3 innings.
In that same period, Brandon Webb is 44-22 with a 3.36 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 436 strikeouts and 160 walks in 535-2/3 innings.
In that same period, Johan Santana is 38-21 with a 2.82 ERA, with a .224 opponents’ average, 528 strikeouts and 134 walks in 536 innings.
In that same period, CC Sabathia is 41-22 with a 2.91 ERA, with a .247 opponents’ average, 540 strikeouts and 113 walks in 585-1/3 innings.
CC is an absolute horse, a pitcher any team would love at the top of its rotation. But speculation is that his stretch-drive performance with the Brewers could net him a free-agent contract worth at least $100 million over the next five years, and perhaps $150 mill over the next seven years.
Peavy is owed $59 million over the next four seasons, and $63 million when the buyout of his 2012 salary is included. He’s not as durable as those four listed above, and there is some concern that his pitching mechanics will lead to more serious elbow problems.
But if the Braves want a seriously dominant ace, at a relatively affordable price, they’d best kick the tires of the Southern boy. If the Padres are seriously considering trading him, then the Braves should seriously consider making it happen. Look over his recent MRI with a fine-tooth comb. Three times.
Then, if it comes to that, if a trade can be worked out, have him undergo another MRI with Braves doctors. Have James Andrews look that baby over (Doc Andrews should be giving the Braves a bulk discount this year anyway, right?)
The answer to the Braves’ biggest pitching problem could come from not far away. A serious, dominating, intimidating ace - and from just up the road.
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