Those are shoe-in career totals... heh... just how many players HAVE won 6 batting titles, for instance?Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules
Don't think the bar has to be set that high for him to get in.
Without out a doubt in
Few More Good Years
A lot more Great Years
Players w/ 6+ batting titles:Originally Posted by moviegeekjan
Cobb - 11
Gwynn - 8
Wagner - 8
Carew - 7
Hornsby - 7
Musial - 7
Williams - 6
Boggs - 5
Brouthers - 5
Lajoie - 5
Counting his seven Japanese batting titles Ichiro has nine batting titles total...Originally Posted by moviegeekjan
Last season Ichiro broke Sisler's record for hits in a season, had fewer strikeouts, and walked more times than he had in any of his previous three ML seasons. As great as he is, this is a strong indication he is still improving! Barring injury, and taking into account his Japanese League batting titles, the enormous effect he has had all the way around the Pacific rim, his popularity here and in Asia, he seems destined for Cooperstown. It is still a little early to tell, and nothing would help his chances like reversing the 63-99 record his Mariners suffered last season, and finaly beat the Yankees in the ALCS. If you ask him about the HOF, he would likely reply that it would be a great honor, but he plays baseball to win, and to win the World Series. A couple of championships looks really good on the resume, don't you think?
Baseball is a ballet without music. Drama without words ~Ernie Harwell
That would do as much as anything, especially if he is a major contributor... some HOFers received more recognition due to standing out in the post season.Originally Posted by trosmok
Historical considerations should play a major part, and with the increasing number of Asian players being successful in MLB... Ichiro would be a prime candidate for HOF recognition--similar to years immediately after Jackie Robinson broke the barrier, a number of black players were inducted despite having relatively short MLB years.
Some (or all) of this may have already been said, but here are some acheivements (and and other stuff) that Ichiro has had that make me believe he deserves induction into the HOF.
1. I am a very biased Mariner's fan
Now on to the real list:
In 4 years already, Ichiro has:
2 Batting titles (top 10 all 4 years)
MVP and ROY in same year
4 All-Star selections
4 GG's - considered by many to have an all-time glove
Amazing arm - I believe it to be the best in the game right now
1 SB title - never out of top 5, and never under 30
Single Season Hits record (and another top 10)
Most hits in any 4 year period
Greatest contact hitter of today
Leading current players in BA (.339)
one of the fastest players in the game (his speed is amazing!)
4 tool player (hits for average, Great glove, great arm, and runs very well - just no power to speak of).
Doesn't soak the team for 20+ million!!!
Most exciting player in the game today (this one is very subjective)
Things against him:
A singles hitter w/ no power...
...That's all I could think of, I'm sure there are more reasons...
Oh, I guess he doesn't have the highest OBP, in part because he doesn't walk a lot, but last year, he did get it above .400, and was second in the league.
Some believe he didn't deserve the MVP (or ROY)
I just thought of a few more things to support Ichiro:
He has an amazingly high BA w/ the bases loaded (not sure what it is off the top of my head), and led in that category last year (along w/ RC) and was not detered by a horrible offense backing him up last year, so it obviously wasn't the help of the 90+ win team of the previous 3 seasons that made him so good.
After last season, Ichiro solidified his spot as one of the greatest contact hitters of all-time. He's a lock first ballot hall of famer.
--I don't think Ichiro needs to improve or even have another season close to last year to make the Hall. If he merely declines gracefully, keeping his average above say .320 (now at .339) though the required 10 seasons he should sail into Cooperstown on the first ballot. If he drops below .300 more than once in the next 6 seasons though that will be a problem. Almost his entire offensive value is based on a high BA.
--He started too late to get in on cumlative totals. That shouldn't even be a consideration unless you give him credit for about 80% of his Japan numbers (which wouldn't be an unreasonable approach). Being the best hitter for BA of his generation, a GG outfielder, SB champ and pioneer for Asian position players is a pretty good package.
What about Ichiro???
I loved that movie!!! Bill Murray was hilarious and Richard Dreyfu...oh, wait, I'm sorry I must be mixed up again.
I agree with leecemark, that he doesn't really need to improve. Actually, I'm not sure how he really could improve all that much. After winning two batting titles four Gold Gloves and an MVP Award I would think that all he needs to do is continiue to play well and not take a nosedive. If he plays one more great year and then becomes a .220 hitter, he'll have problems. However, let's say hypothetically that he "only" manages to hit .300 over the next six seasons. Let's be conservative and say he misses some time due to injuries and collects 900 more hits in 3000 more at bats. His career total of 1824 hits would be rather unimpressive, but in only 5722 at bats it would give him a career .318 BA. I really can't see him not getting elected at that point with a career .318 average and two batting titles to his credit. If he actually does continue to perform exceptionally well and in a dominant manner for one or two more years, it would become even more difficult to keep him out. Basically, over the next 3000 at bats, Ichiro can hit .267 and still wind up as a career .300 hitter. In all likelihood, my guess is that if Ichiro gets his ten years in, and stays relatively healthy, he'll get into Cooperstown.
Not to stir up a hornet's nest or stray this off topic, but isn't that logic akin to saying the best set up man should be in the hall?? After all in today;s game middle relief and the bullpen is as important (or considering both leagues have bullpens perhaps more important) to the game as the DH. Do you support Jesse Orosco for the hall? Or whoever is the greatest set up man of all time???Originally Posted by moviegeekjan
Or perhaps we could apply that logic to say Aubrey Huff when he retires and becomes eligible? We could make the hall of fame like the all star game, where every team gets a representative. Isn't that like what your saying? I mean if every position must be represented then surely every team must be as well??? That way Randy Johnson goes in as a Diamondback, and Larry Walker's election is all but assured. Who represents the Marlins?? Piazza, Sheffield, Nen?????
I don't buy into the argument that Edgar should be in because he is the best DH ever? I mean look at the DH's out there Jose Offerman?? Brad Fullmer??? Ruben Sierra?? Tim Salmon???? Is watchign these guys hit really all that much more exciting then the added drama having the pitcher bats adds to a game??? Sure every now and then there us an Edgar or Frank Thomas or Travis Hafner if he continues to DH, BUT overall the vast majority of men who have been DH's are average or below players anyway. You ask me Edgar isn't a hall of famer....and the DH should forever be abolished
Of course I do think Ichiro is headed to Cooperstown, but I will reserve my final vote for a few years.
Well Ken Williams played 14 seasons and had a career .319 average with 1 HR crown under his belt he had 1552 hits but in only 4862 at bats and he isn't in.Originally Posted by The Commissioner
Lew Fonseca has 1 batting title and a career .316 average over 12 seasons. 1075 hits in 3404 at bats and he isn't in.
Riggs Stephenson may be the best example as he has a career .336 average with 1515 hits in 4508 at bats over 14 seasons. Granted no batting titles
None of them are in, of course Ichiro also has his defense and i am sure some will consider his Japanese exploits. Overall I think Ichiro is probably going to Cooperstown, but he could still derail that train.
If Ichiro plays 6 more seasons, declines normally and remains reasonably healthy then....
....he should be elected to the Hall of Fame; and...
....he will be elected if the Powers That Be pull their heads out of their collective [expletives deleted].
Last edited by Brad Harris; 03-11-2005 at 10:43 PM.
"When you have no basis for an argument, abuse the plaintiff." -- Cicero
The national media and MLB both have a huge love affair with Ichiro. I would be willing to say that he will make the Hall of Fame, even if he is slightly undeserving, before the "powers that be" keep him out if he did deserve it. They will be looking for every possible reason to put him in.
That being said, I see no reason, he won't play long enough or well enough to make Cooperstown...but things do happen.
exactly.Originally Posted by STLCards2
When I talk about how people should consider his accomplishments from Japan, to aid in his election to the HOF, it is generally considering if he does not make it to the full 10 year mark (for whatever reason), but if he does play a full 10+ years here (and I sure hope he does), there would be no need to, other than when ranking him all-time, some people (such as myself) might use the 7 consecutive batting titles he had in Japan.
You can't reasonably compare my example of Ichiro potentially compiling close to 6000 at bats with only 3400+ for Fonseca. Stephenson was 1200+ at bats short and Williams close to 1000. Had any of those three collected around 6000 at bats in their career, it could be argued that they would be in the Hall of Fame.Originally Posted by Etheridge2
I am going to pose a hypothetical for you all:
Let's just say that next season, Ichiro hits .400, then dies! Would you elect him to the HOF?
Now let's say that he just has another 5 "Ichiro Average" years (for 9 total), then his knees give out and he can never play again, would you elect him?
To both questions, I would have to answer yes to them. First off, if he hit .400, that is an amazing feat, and if he suddenly died, he has shown what he has done in this league, and in others, and again, hitting .400 is amazing.
Also, even if he only plays 9 seasons, but gets aroung 200+ hits each season and a fair .300+ BA, then yes, even though he may still be short, even if he never has another Standout year like '01 or '04.
What do you think?
--If he doesn't play the required 10 years he doesn't get my vote for Cooperstown (if I had one), regardless of the circumstances. With Japanese play now eligible for consideration for the BBF Hall I could vote for him under either of your scenario here. That would also apply if the real Hall decided to consider JL players.
And those players played in extreme hitting eras where hitting. The league average for BA right now is normally around .260-.270. Back then it was around .280 to .300. Players like Ken Williams were just "good" players who stats look better then they really were because of the extreme hitter's era of the time.Originally Posted by Etheridge2
For myself, I think I'd vote for Ichiro in either case, even without the rule change leecemark is talking about. Getting Ichiro in under those circumstances would create the precedent that I think ultimately would allow Japanese players into the Hall. Since such an outcome is my goal, I'd welcome the half a loaf that acknowledges Japanese players' accomplishments in the Japanese leagues can be considered at least for guys who played in the majors. I'd rather see the rule end before the "at least . . .", but I'd be willing to start with that.Originally Posted by leecemark
There is precedent for allowing a player with less than 10 ML seasons into the Hall of Fame. Addie Joss only played nine seasons. He unexpectedly died after his ninth season. He was elected in 1978.Originally Posted by jalbright
Originally Posted by Honus Wagner Rules
True, but I think it's really only a precedent for someone who dies before the tenth season. In that case, it's not too good for Ichiro to be using that avenue.
Though 10 years of MLB service is a key number for Ichiro's case, I'd say the most interesting is 2100. Assuming he has at least a .300 career MLB average (a pretty good bet since average is his defining characteristic as a player and he's well over that mark at present), even low power hitting outfielders with a .300 or better career average start doing very well. By about 2800 or more, they're all in. So, below 2100 MLB hits, Ichiro needs to have his Japanese hits help him. The need for those hits diminishes and disappears no later than 2800 NPB hits.
I don't agree. If Ichiro gets anywhere near 2000 hits, he would probably be a lock.Originally Posted by jalbright
I agree, but only because there's an element like me that give him credit for what he did in Japan. If you force him to rely solely on his major league stats, there are three outfielders by primary position (Harvey Kuenn is one I remember) who are between 2000 and 2100 career hits, over a .300 career average, and less than .480 slugging who aren't in. Indeed, at or below 2100 career hits with those other characteristics, more are out than in. You'd be establishing a different precedent--and I submit the reason for it is what he did in Japan. The higher you go over 2100 hits, the less and less he needs the Japanese record to boost him to get him into the Hall. That's what I was trying to convey in the earlier post.Originally Posted by The Commissioner
#1 No. #2 YesOriginally Posted by Edgartohof
Mythical SF Chronicle scouting report: "That Jeff runs like a deer. Unfortunately, he also hits AND throws like one." I am Venus DeMilo - NO ARM! I can play like a big leaguer, I can field like Luzinski, run like Lombardi. The secret to managing is keeping the ones who hate you away from the undecided ones. I am a triumph of quantity over quality. I'm almost useful, every village needs an idiot.
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