Dwight Evans or Jim Rice – who was more valuable?

[George H Ruth]

Most people knee jerk an answer of Jim Rice. But its not so, and I am going to prove why not.

Perception. Rice came up with Fred Lynn and formed one of the most famous duos in the history of the sport – the “gold dust twins”, and they captured the imagination of fans around the country, not just Boston. Three of Rice’s best five seasons came in his first 5 years. He was established as a slugger very young.

Evans came up a few years earlier, a spotty hitter but great fielding RF (in the most difficult RF in all of baseball). He was seen as a nice complimentary piece, and not much more. The first person to really notice him was Sparky Anderson in 1975. He had heard all about Yaz, Tiant, Lynn, but Evans was the most impressive to Sparky with his play in the ’75 WS. Evans didn’t have his best year until his 8th full year.

With the bat:

Career:

JRice OPS+ 128; 1384 RC in 09058 PA - .1528 RC/PA
Evans OPS+ 127; 1612 RC in 10569 PA - .1525 RC/PA

In terms of rate stats, we have to call it even or a slight edge for Rice

In terms of career value, a player with almost the same rate stats that has 1511 PA more (about 2.3 years more) of a career is more valuable as a hitter – period.

Evans BtRns 362.4 BtWin 35.5 OWP .646
JRice BtRns 294.7 BtWin 28.9 OWP .627

Wow! More solid of a win then I expected here.

Peak:

Here is a list of the best 5 RC (runs created) seasons of each player, any order:

Evans - 134, 134, 132, 112, 104 = 616
JRice – 147, 138, 136, 115, 113 = 649

Sadly for Evans, one of his best years looked to be the strike year – 1980. If you EQ for games missed his 95 RC of that year go to 126, and his 104 drops off the list, and then he is only 11 RC back in this 5 year comparison.

In fact with 1980 intact, the RS *probably* would have won the Division, and Evans might have won the MVP. He also might have made it to 400 HR which would helped his HOF cause.

Average Years:

Next 9 years RC:

Evans – 100, 100, 95, 85, 79, 74, 71, 69, 66 = 739
JRice – 99, 92, 88, 83, 83, 81, 64, 63, 55 = 708

31 runs over 9 years, not a big edge for Evans, but enough to erase Rice’s advantage in the best 5 year match up.

So, you ask if Evans is so great why does Rice have bigger BA, RBI’s etc?

Batting order:

Evans: ---- Rice:

1st – 160 -- 003
2nd – 565 -- 003
3rd – 211 -- 882
4th – 152 -- 677
5th – 322 -- 263
6th – 429 -- 161
7th – 333 -- 088
8th – 297 -- 006
9th – 137 – 006

Evans batted in places where he could score more runs (due to his OBP), but also in places where RBI’s are harder to get (only 26.3% at 3-4-5 whereas Rice had 87.2% of his games at 3-4-5).

Another issue is that Evans appeared lower overall in the order – costing about 30 PA’s in a typical 155 game season, which are more runs and RBI’s lost.

Base running:

On startling thing about Rice most people don’t talk about. His GDIP. His is 5th all time at 315, but his percentage of GDIP is the 2nd highest I could find among players with over 5000 career PA. Ernie Lombardi a fine hitting and lead footed catcher is the only one with a worse GDIP percentage. Lombardi is hailed by many as the slowest player of all time.

Neither stole a lot – Evans more SB’s but at a lesser rate then Rice. Still with 88 less career GDIP’s in 1511 more PA’s, and my memory which says Evans was a bit faster and paid more attention on base then Rice, a small advantage must accrue to Evans. I’d guesstimate 1.5 runs per season, but I’m ready to change my mind.

OK, so what, splitting hairs…?? No…

Defense.

8 GG’s for Evans – 0 for Rice;

12% of Evans’s games at DH (not regularly until age 37)
34.4% of Rice’s games at DH, regularly starting in ’75 at age 22.

In the core 14 years of Evans career which we have been using to compare with Rice, he saved about 120 runs with his glove – or an average of 8.5 runs per season.

Rice saved 4 runs in LF in his entire career – or .285 runs per year.

Summary:

Rice has a lead in 5 year peak, which could be mitigated if you give Evans his missing games of 1980, or at least bias the result to take account of it. There is also the extra AB’s Rice accrued during many of these years when Evans was hitting 6th or 7th.

Over the entire career the hitting stats are vastly similar with Evans holding the advantage of more playing time at the same equal level making him more valuable.

Then there is possible advantage Evans enjoys as a base runner.

Finally – defense, Evans is one of the 6 greatest RF since WW II along with Clemente and Kaline. Take those RC numbers and add 8.5 to them, and viola! It’s no longer close. Evans was a better player for a longer period then Rice. He also tops Rice in Peak seasons as well.

And for all the old time guys that will rail about stat geeks. I saw those guys – some years well over 100 games a seasons. I thought through 1979 that Rice and Lynn would end up in the HOF. But by 1980-81 I was praying that Rice would just strike out w/ men on base and not hit into another friggin DP.

I think Rice will get in this year, more on reputation then reality, with a backlash push from HGH/steroids. Evans didn’t get any support when he came up, and he fell off the ballot.

I just looked them up in James’s Abstract:

JRice 27th all time LF w/ 282 career Win Shares and 21.86 per 162
Evans 22nd all time RF w/ 347 career Win Shares and 21.57 per 162

He is known to underestimate defense in the stats he used to write this book FYI.

I do not think Dwight Evans belongs in the HOF, and I sure as hell know Rice does not.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Rice had a higher peak than Evans, although not as much higher as people think.

Evans had the more valuable career; who had the more valuable peak is somewhat debatable.

Had Rice not had the eye problems that shortened his career, I believe that his numbers would have been such that no one would have questioned his induction, 6-4-3 DPs and all. Rice didn't make it to 500 HRs (in fact, he didn't make it to 400 HRs) after a fast start. His BA dropped under .300 lifetime at the end. I wonder if he'd get a little more respect if he made it to 400 with his .300 BA intact.

[George H Ruth]

Rice had a higher peak than Evans, although not as much higher as people think.

Evans had the more valuable career; who had the more valuable peak is somewhat debatable.

Had Rice not had the eye problems that shortened his career, I believe that his numbers would have been such that no one would have questioned his induction, 6-4-3 DPs and all. Rice didn't make it to 500 HRs (in fact, he didn't make it to 400 HRs) after a fast start. His BA dropped under .300 lifetime at the end. I wonder if he'd get a little more respect if he made it to 400 with his .300 BA intact.

Yes, that would have done it. 420 HR, .302 BA, in for a long time.

Evans would have needed 425 HR+ because his BA was low and not many cared about OBP when he was first eligible.

[brett]

'81 was the strike year, and Evans had an MVP case.

It's also odd that Rice and Evans each fell off so fast after '86 and '87 respectively.

[125osprey]

from George H. Ruth: In the core 14 years of Evans career which we have been using to compare with Rice, he saved about 120 runs with his glove – or an average of 8.5 runs per season.

Fascinating. And wouldn't the majority of these saved runs be made at key moments of any given game? I wonder how many of these saved runs were rally killers or final outs.

Do you guys think that a saved run carries the same weight as a run batted in? Of course, runs may be equivalent but wouldn't nailing a runner at home or third in a close game (and isn't that when such plays are usually made?) carry more weight than driving in a run in lopsided win or loss?

Perhaps Dewey really was worth his weight in gold.

[brett]

from George H. Ruth: In the core 14 years of Evans career which we have been using to compare with Rice, he saved about 120 runs with his glove – or an average of 8.5 runs per season.

Fascinating. And wouldn't the majority of these saved runs be made at key moments of any given game? I wonder how many of these saved runs were rally killers or final outs.

Do you guys think that a saved run carries the same weight as a run batted in? Of course, runs may be equivalent but wouldn't nailing a runner at home or third in a close game (and isn't that when such plays are usually made?) carry more weight than driving in a run in lopsided win or loss?

Perhaps Dewey really was worth his weight in gold.

Actually, since the vast majority of times a player goes for an extra base, he is successful, an outfield assist is extremely valuable. It not only creates an out, and prevents the extra base, but also removes the runner from the base he was on.

Throwing out a guy trying to go from 1 to 3 on a single is almost like removing 3 bases and creating an out. Rough stat estimates would make that equal to about 1.7 runs.

Also, just causing a runner who would normally have gone to third to stay at second is worth about .35 runs. Who knows how many times that happened?

[KCGHOST]

At BBF Dwight Evans career has always been considered superior to Jim Rice's.

[jaxxr]

MVP awards Roice 1, Evans 0
HR titles, Rice 3, Evans 1 ( Strike shortened season )
OPS + titles, Rice 1, Evans 0
RBI titles, Rice 2, Evans 0
OPS titles Rice 1, Evans 2
Slg. Pct titles, Rice 2, Evans 0
Total bese titles, Rice 4, Evans 1
AS games, Rice 8, Evans 3
200 hit seasons, Rice 4, Evans 0

Jim Rice could hit for both power and average, and at this time, only nine other retired HOF hitters rank ahead of him in both career home runs and batting average. They are: Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Stan Musial, Mel Ott, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams.

The BWA voters may take the items aforementioned as indicative of true "fame", also a monumental 406 total base season, the last pre-roids 400 one, might also aid Rice's fame and hall merit.

[Mike90]

Yep, Evans is better; so was Lynn for that matter. Funny that the 3rd best outfielder from that team is going to be elected and the other two are left out. If only Fred and Dwight were scarier.

[bagwell368]

Just wanted to claim credit for my work. The lead article was written by me on PSD (Pro Sports Daily) word for word:

http://www.prosportsdaily.com/forums...d.php?t=308734

I have over 4k posts there

who this "Ruth" person is besides a thief I have no idea. He hasn't posted since 1/22/09, and he grabbed dozens more of my posts in the time he was here. It is too exhausting to list them all. It's flattering and creepy both.

So, I am not really a newbie here.

[Otis Nixon's Bodyguard]

Yep, Evans is better; so was Lynn for that matter. Funny that the 3rd best outfielder from that team is going to be elected and the other two are left out. If only Fred and Dwight were scarier.

I'll entertain the thought that Dewey has more career value than Rice, but I think Rice is the better HOF candidate (if that makes sense). This is from a post I made on this subject in the Hall of Fame section (it's been adjusted slightly in order for it to make sense on this thread):

Whether Evans has more career value than Rice is up for debate, but I maintain that Rice is the better HOF candidate due to peak value. Neither one has enough career value for that alone to get him into the HOF. Outfielders with sub .300 averages and fewer than 400 homers usually need something else. For Al Kaline it was 3,000 hits. For Ralph Kiner it was a short-lived, but absolutely dominant display of power. For Jim Rice it was a run as one of the best all-around hitters in baseball - he was an annual threat to hit 40 homers and bat .300 (not to mention drive in 120 if you're into that kind of thing). Dewey doesn't have that X-factor. To use a cliche, he was a jack of all trades, but a master of none. He walked a lot, but so did Eddie Yost and no one is clamoring for his induction. He played great defense, but he was a corner outfielder, not a shortstop. As a hitter, he was consistently good, but rarely great. If Harold Baines had played top-notch defense in right field, he'd essentially be the same player as Dewey. I think that Rice is just barely above the HOF cutoff, and I supported his induction for several years before it finally happened, but I can't bring myself to support Dewey - he's just barely below that cutoff.

[Fuzzy Bear]

'81 was the strike year, and Evans had an MVP case.

It's also odd that Rice and Evans each fell off so fast after '86 and '87 respectively.

Evans fell off a year later, and was two years older than Rice.