Jackson's '73 factored into today's game.
In 1973, Reggie Jackson led the American League with 32 home runs, which is to date the lowest league leading total. For any season, this number is absolutely miniscule to lead the league with. However, how would leading the league with 32 home runs factor into todays game? Anyone think we'll ever see the day when someone leads the league with an even lower total?
Actually, the lowest HR total to lead the American league is 7 by Sam Crawford (1907), and Braggo Roth (1915).
Bill James translated Reggie's '73 season into a 1990's run context in his NHBA. He had him with 37 HR's in a neutral park. And a .327 BA and 150 RBI.
Allen and Nettles also led with 32 inthe 70s.
Originally Posted by futurehalloffamer
1981 - Schmidt (NL) 31 - 46 projected to 162 game sch.
1981 - Armas, Evans, Grich, Murray (AL) 22 - 32 projected to 162 game sch.
Last edited by dgarza; 01-14-2009 at 12:36 PM.
Conigliaro also hit 32 in 1965. No matter what the number is, if it was the most, I guess it's still a great accomplishment.
That is conservative! especially for Eddie Murray concretely and the AL leader abstractly ; that is, regarding the likely number of home runs for the AL leader in a whole 1981 season.
Originally Posted by dgarza
number of team games, 1981:
Oakland 109, Boston 108, California 110, Baltimore 105
. . .
Armas 32.7, Evans 33, Grich 32.4, Murray 33.9
Last edited by Paul Wendt; 01-14-2009 at 02:03 PM.
Anomalies exist in the statistical analysis of just about everything. Why should baseball be any different? It is entirely possible that injuries, personal problems, drug or alcohol usage, or other unknown factors effected the performances of the only other home run rivals in the league. Also, even at that late date, ballparks were bigger and capable of containing hits that today would be into the seats.
Ted Williams actually won the Triple Crown in '47 with just 32 homers and 114 RBIs. Offense fluctuates from era to era, and each era has ups and downs from season to season. I think that it's fair to assume that anyone who led the league in homers in a particular year in the modern era would at least be near the top of the leaderboard in most other years. I'd sat that Jackson's 32 homers would probably translate to around 40 nowadays.
Originally Posted by Paul Wendt
Our predictions are pretty similar.